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Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and Sustainment October 2015 Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481 [email protected]

Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and … · Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481 . [email protected] . Outline • Motivation • Background • Problem

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Page 1: Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and … · Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481 . Christopher.Guerra@swri.org . Outline • Motivation • Background • Problem

SwRI Technical Expertise/Support (continued)

Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and

Sustainment

October 2015

Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481

[email protected]

Page 2: Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and … · Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481 . Christopher.Guerra@swri.org . Outline • Motivation • Background • Problem

Outline

• Motivation • Background • Problem Statement • Approach • Discussion • Conclusions • Acknowledgments • References

Page 3: Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and … · Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481 . Christopher.Guerra@swri.org . Outline • Motivation • Background • Problem

Motivation

• Aircraft Fleet Age Expected to Increase Before Declining

• Support Equipment Age Linked to Fleet Age

• Mission Capable Rates Are Dependent on Effective Support Equipment

• Fragmented Life Cycle Management of Maintenance Functions

Page 4: Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and … · Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481 . Christopher.Guerra@swri.org . Outline • Motivation • Background • Problem

Background

• DoDAF Framework – Relate System and

Maintenance Functions

• BBP 3.0, Emphasize – Control LCC – Productivity – Innovation – Competition

Avionics

AvMxF1 AvMxF2

. . .

Fuel System

FsMxF1 FsMxF2

. . .

Map Selected Functions to SE

Page 5: Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and … · Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481 . Christopher.Guerra@swri.org . Outline • Motivation • Background • Problem

Problem Statement

• Strategic Procurement of Support Equipment

• Maintenance Functions Across Service

• System Health Modeled for Life Cycle Management

Page 6: Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and … · Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481 . Christopher.Guerra@swri.org . Outline • Motivation • Background • Problem

Approach

Avionics

AvMxF1 AvMxF2 AvMxF3 AvMxF4 AvMxF5 AvMxF6

. . .

Avionics

AvMxF1 AvMxF2 AvMxF3 AvMxF4 AvMxF5 AvMxF6

. . .

Avionics

AvMxF1 AvMxF2 AvMxF3 AvMxF4 AvMxF5 AvMxF6

. . .

Identify Service-Wide Common Maintenance Functions from System Architecture

Page 7: Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and … · Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481 . Christopher.Guerra@swri.org . Outline • Motivation • Background • Problem

Approach

C-130 Avionics

AvMxF1 AvMxF2 AvMxF3 AvMxF4 AvMxF5 AvMxF6

. . .

A-10 Avionics

AvMxF1 AvMxF2 AvMxF3 AvMxF4 AvMxF5 AvMxF6

. . .

B-52 Avionics

AvMxF1 AvMxF2 AvMxF3 AvMxF4 AvMxF5 AvMxF6

. . .

C-130 Avionics

AvMxF1 AvMxF2 AvMxF3 AvMxF4 AvMxF5 AvMxF6

. . .

A-10 Avionics

AvMxF1 AvMxF2 AvMxF3 AvMxF4 AvMxF5 AvMxF6

. . .

B-52 Comms

CmMxF1 CmMxF2 CmMxF3 CmMxF4 CmMxF5 CmMxF6

. . .

Legacy Maintenance Requirements

Emerging Maintenance Requirements

Page 8: Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and … · Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481 . Christopher.Guerra@swri.org . Outline • Motivation • Background • Problem

Approach

• Compile Historical Support Equipment Supply System Data – Track for Obsolescence – Track for Usage – Classify by Dominant Function

Page 9: Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and … · Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481 . Christopher.Guerra@swri.org . Outline • Motivation • Background • Problem

Discussion

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Legacy SE (Available Life)

78 74 69 65 61

New SE (Available Life)

100 96 92 88

C-130 Legacy Transition Transition Transition New

A-10* Legacy Legacy Legacy Legacy Legacy

F-35 New** New New New

Align Legacy Aircraft with Emerging Support Equipment for Maximum Life

*Assume draw down in 2020s. High remaining life suggests minimal ROI. **Assume FRP begins.

Page 10: Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and … · Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481 . Christopher.Guerra@swri.org . Outline • Motivation • Background • Problem

Conclusions

• Modeling Support Equipment Life – Design Life – Individual Asset Life

• Identifying Common Maintenance Functions

• Enable Strategic Procurement

• Setup for Optimizing Life Cycle Management

Page 11: Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and … · Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481 . Christopher.Guerra@swri.org . Outline • Motivation • Background • Problem

Acknowledgments

• Thank you to the Avionics & Support Systems Department of the Defense & Intelligence Solutions Division

Page 12: Modeling Equipment Health for Strategic Procurement and … · Christopher J. Guerra (210) 522-3481 . Christopher.Guerra@swri.org . Outline • Motivation • Background • Problem

References

[1] B. Everstine, “Readiness declines in aging, overworked fleet”, Air Force Times, October 2013. [2] US Dept. of Defense, Defense Acquisition Guidebook, 2004. [3] US Dept. of Defense, DoD Architecture Framework Version 2.02. [4] US Dept. of Defense, Implementation Directive for Better Buying Power 3.0, 2015.