Modeling and Simulation at U.S. Manufacturers / Cloud Computing in HPC Actionable Market Intelligence for High Performance Computing Addison Snell, CEO,

Modeling and Simulation at U.S. Manufacturers / Cloud Computing in HPC

Modeling and Simulation at U.S. Manufacturers / Cloud Computing in HPC

Actionable Market Intelligence for High Performance ComputingActionable Market Intelligence for High Performance Computing

Addison Snell, CEO, [email protected]

October 2010

Overview: Digital Manufacturing Study

Overview: Digital Manufacturing Study

• Limitations to design and production

• Levels of advanced computing adopted

• Drivers and barriers for more advanced computation

• Possible partnerships to drive adoption

• Limitations to design and production

• Levels of advanced computing adopted

• Drivers and barriers for more advanced computation

• Possible partnerships to drive adoption

In partnership with Intersect360 Research, NCMS conducted a broad-based survey of U.S.

manufacturers to assess adoption of “digital manufacturing” techniques.

In partnership with Intersect360 Research, NCMS conducted a broad-based survey of U.S.

manufacturers to assess adoption of “digital manufacturing” techniques.

“Digital Manufacturing”“Digital Manufacturing”

• The use of advanced computing technologies for simulations to guide engineering and production– Structural analysis– Aerodynamics– Crashworthiness– Environment testing– Stress testing– Process engineering– Manufacturability

• Improve quality, faster time-to-market, lower costs

• The use of advanced computing technologies for simulations to guide engineering and production– Structural analysis– Aerodynamics– Crashworthiness– Environment testing– Stress testing– Process engineering– Manufacturability

• Improve quality, faster time-to-market, lower costs

“High Performance Computing”“High Performance Computing”

• The use of clusters of servers and associated technologies for computation- or data-intensive tasks– Scaling up from the desktop environment– $19 billion for HPC products and services in

2009– Usage spans industry (55%), government (28%),

and academic research (17%)– Both research and production environments– Manufacturing is the top commercial segment,

followed by biotechnology, finance, and energy

• The use of clusters of servers and associated technologies for computation- or data-intensive tasks– Scaling up from the desktop environment– $19 billion for HPC products and services in

2009– Usage spans industry (55%), government (28%),

and academic research (17%)– Both research and production environments– Manufacturing is the top commercial segment,

followed by biotechnology, finance, and energy

Source: Intersect360 Research HPC Market Model and Forecast, July 2010, www.intersect360.com

Adoption GapAdoption Gap

• Within industry, there is a significant disconnect in technology adoption between large and small companies

• Large automotive and aerospace manufacturers have used scalable digital manufacturing for decades

• Not a “pyramid” shape market, but “tree shape” – once companies adopt advanced computing, they are likely to scale it

• Competitive disadvantage for smaller companies

• Within industry, there is a significant disconnect in technology adoption between large and small companies

• Large automotive and aerospace manufacturers have used scalable digital manufacturing for decades

• Not a “pyramid” shape market, but “tree shape” – once companies adopt advanced computing, they are likely to scale it

• Competitive disadvantage for smaller companies

NCMS / Intersect360 Research StudyNCMS / Intersect360 Research Study

• 321 qualified respondents

• Across range of industries (80%) and supporting academic, government and trade organizations (20%)

• Executive summary released today

• Full report available

• 321 qualified respondents

• Across range of industries (80%) and supporting academic, government and trade organizations (20%)

• Executive summary released today

• Full report available

Table 1: Survey Participants by Industry / Sector Source: Intersect360 Research, NCMS, 2010

Industry / Sector CountAerospace 47Automotive 31Consumer Products 5Defense / Homeland security contractor 49Health Care / Pharmaceuticals 2IT and electronics 14Other (industry) 110Total industry 258Academic 12Government agency 30Other (non-industry) 11Trade or industry association 10Total non-industry 63TOTAL 321

Haves vs. Have-NotsHaves vs. Have-NotsTable 2: Digital Manufacturing Usage among Commercial Respondents, by Number of Employees1

Source: Intersect360 Research, NCMS, 2010

1 “Total” column is not an exact sum of other columns due to a small number of respondents who did not specify a level of technology usage.

Employees Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent1-20 4 6.1% 15 20.8% 17 25.0% 23 56.1% 63 24.4%21-100 5 7.6% 11 15.3% 22 32.4% 12 29.3% 51 19.8%101-500 5 7.6% 15 20.8% 12 17.6% 3 7.3% 35 13.6%501-2000 9 13.6% 8 11.1% 6 8.8% 0 0.0% 24 9.3%2001-10000 6 9.1% 6 8.3% 7 10.3% 1 2.4% 20 7.8%10001 or more 37 56.1% 17 23.6% 4 5.9% 2 4.9% 65 25.2%Total 66 100.0% 72 100.0% 68 100.0% 41 100.0% 258 100.0%

Mod/ Sim HPC Mod/ Sim Desktop 3D Tools 2D Tools Total

1 Total column is not an exact sum of other columns due to a small number of respondents who did not specify a level of technology usage.

• “Mod/Sim HPC” are doing modeling and simulation on HPC systems.

• “Mod/Sim Desktop” are running those applications, but desktop only.

• “3D Tools” are running 3D drawing tools (computer-aided design) on PCs.

• “2D Tools” are running 2D drawing only, or nothing at all.

• “Mod/Sim HPC” are doing modeling and simulation on HPC systems.

• “Mod/Sim Desktop” are running those applications, but desktop only.

• “3D Tools” are running 3D drawing tools (computer-aided design) on PCs.

• “2D Tools” are running 2D drawing only, or nothing at all.

Haves vs. Have-NotsHaves vs. Have-NotsTable 2: Digital Manufacturing Usage among Commercial Respondents, by Number of Employees1

Source: Intersect360 Research, NCMS, 2010

1 “Total” column is not an exact sum of other columns due to a small number of respondents who did not specify a level of technology usage.

Employees Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent1-20 4 6.1% 15 20.8% 17 25.0% 23 56.1% 63 24.4%21-100 5 7.6% 11 15.3% 22 32.4% 12 29.3% 51 19.8%101-500 5 7.6% 15 20.8% 12 17.6% 3 7.3% 35 13.6%501-2000 9 13.6% 8 11.1% 6 8.8% 0 0.0% 24 9.3%2001-10000 6 9.1% 6 8.3% 7 10.3% 1 2.4% 20 7.8%10001 or more 37 56.1% 17 23.6% 4 5.9% 2 4.9% 65 25.2%Total 66 100.0% 72 100.0% 68 100.0% 41 100.0% 258 100.0%

Mod/ Sim HPC Mod/ Sim Desktop 3D Tools 2D Tools Total

1 Total column is not an exact sum of other columns due to a small number of respondents who did not specify a level of technology usage.

• 56% of the HPC usage is at companies with over 10,000 employees.

• 56% of those maxed out at 2D drawing have 20 or fewer employees.

• 61% of companies with over 10,000 employees are using HPC.• Only 8% of companies with under 100 employees are using

HPC.

• 56% of the HPC usage is at companies with over 10,000 employees.

• 56% of those maxed out at 2D drawing have 20 or fewer employees.

• 61% of companies with over 10,000 employees are using HPC.• Only 8% of companies with under 100 employees are using

HPC.

Drivers and Barriers for Non-Adopters

Drivers and Barriers for Non-Adopters

• Among companies using 2D tools only:• There is a need:

– “High product quality” is most critical factor to strategy

– “Long development cycle” is most common limitation to development and production

• But also significant barriers:– Cost of hardware and software– Lack of expertise internally and externally– Need to coordinate physical and digital results

• Among companies using 2D tools only:• There is a need:

– “High product quality” is most critical factor to strategy

– “Long development cycle” is most common limitation to development and production

• But also significant barriers:– Cost of hardware and software– Lack of expertise internally and externally– Need to coordinate physical and digital results

What It Takes to Do MoreWhat It Takes to Do More

• Among companies doing modeling and simulation, but only at the desktop level:

• 72% say increased adoption of digital manufacturing would be a competitive advantage

• 82% feel they need more opportunity to test new technologies at reduced cost and risk

• Ranked “not-for-profit manufacturing centers” as the most preferred potential partner for helping adoption

• Among companies doing modeling and simulation, but only at the desktop level:

• 72% say increased adoption of digital manufacturing would be a competitive advantage

• 82% feel they need more opportunity to test new technologies at reduced cost and risk

• Ranked “not-for-profit manufacturing centers” as the most preferred potential partner for helping adoption

ConclusionsConclusions

• To improve U.S. manufacturing competitiveness, government programs should find ways to reach out to small and medium size manufacturers

• Reduce cost and risk of technology adoption• Give access to technology resources, facilitate

partnerships, provide expertise

• To improve U.S. manufacturing competitiveness, government programs should find ways to reach out to small and medium size manufacturers

• Reduce cost and risk of technology adoption• Give access to technology resources, facilitate

partnerships, provide expertiseFull report and data set from Intersect360

Research.www.intersect360.com

(888) 256-0124, [email protected]

Full report and data set from Intersect360 Research.

www.intersect360.com(888) 256-0124, [email protected]

Overview: Cloud Computing in HPCOverview: Cloud Computing in HPC

• Survey of HPC users conducted in September 2010

• 156 qualified respondents– Heavy (heavier than normal) responses from

academia– Research vs. production

• Drivers, barriers, forecast for cloud usage for HPC

• Divides respondents into categories of adoption:– Already using cloud– Considering cloud– Considered and decided against cloud– Have not considered cloud

• Survey of HPC users conducted in September 2010

• 156 qualified respondents– Heavy (heavier than normal) responses from

academia– Research vs. production

• Drivers, barriers, forecast for cloud usage for HPC

• Divides respondents into categories of adoption:– Already using cloud– Considering cloud– Considered and decided against cloud– Have not considered cloud

“One Tweet” Definition of Cloud“One Tweet” Definition of Cloud

• Cloud is not a market, but rather a way to access resources

• Cloud does not compete with HPC• Analysts must be careful not to double-count

• Cloud is not a market, but rather a way to access resources

• Cloud does not compete with HPC• Analysts must be careful not to double-count

@addisonsnell Cloud is: Accessing part of your

IT infrastructure or workflow through a web browser (or web browser-like) interface.




• This condition distinguishes cloud computing from web 2.0 or other internet application categories

• Boundaries:– Salesforce.com? Part of your workflow. It counts.– Fishville? Unless you’re Zynga, it’s out.

• This condition distinguishes cloud computing from web 2.0 or other internet application categories

• Boundaries:– Salesforce.com? Part of your workflow. It counts.– Fishville? Unless you’re Zynga, it’s out.






• This condition distinguishes cloud computing from grid or other utility computing models.

• Web-like? Includes:– Some intranets are web-like but not technically

web.– Some tablet apps are web-like also.

• Not: Remote login, shell, command line, etc.

• This condition distinguishes cloud computing from grid or other utility computing models.

• Web-like? Includes:– Some intranets are web-like but not technically

web.– Some tablet apps are web-like also.

• Not: Remote login, shell, command line, etc.





Public vs. Private CloudsPublic vs. Private Clouds

• There are four primary variables to consider:– Ownership– Possession– Maintenance– Provisioning

• All external = public cloud• All internal = private cloud• Mix and match = hybrid cloud

• There are four primary variables to consider:– Ownership– Possession– Maintenance– Provisioning

• All external = public cloud• All internal = private cloud• Mix and match = hybrid cloud

Brief Snapshot of StudyBrief Snapshot of Study

• …• …

Actionable Market Intelligence for High Productivity Computing

Actionable Market Intelligence for High Productivity Computing

Documents

Modeling and Simulation at U.S. Manufacturers / Cloud Computing in HPC Actionable Market Intelligence for High Performance Computing Addison Snell, CEO,