Model Based DSSCreating Information Under Conditions of Uncertainty and Complexity

Interface

MODELBASE

DATABASE

MBMSDBMS

DATA WAREHOUSING

ON LINE ANALYTICAL PROCESSING

GUI, Intelligent Objects, Voice, GroupWare, etc.

External

Models

External

Data

Information Technology for Enterprise Strategic Systems

Developing and Using Models Processes for Analyzing Problem/Opportunities Situations

Model Representation

Deterministic Analysis

Probabilistic Analysis

Evaluation of Alternatives

Decision Analysis Models

Statistical, OR/MS, Financial Models

Sensitivity Analyses (1-way, n-way)

Goal Seeking and Optimization

Using Probabilities (Decision Analyses)

Using Probability Distributions (Simulation)

Using Heuristics, Consensus Methods

Goal Maximization, Internal Consistency

Profit (Outcome)INP

UT

Var

iabl

es

Compares one-way sensitivity analysis Most sensitive variable is at top and

descends in sensitivity Shows sensitivity range Produces a tornado appearance

Measuring the sensitivity (changes) in the outcome due to changes in the input variable

n-way Sensitivity Analysis

Changes in several inputs Helps evaluate scenarios Scenario manger in Excel

One-way Sensitivity Analysis

Controllable

Uncontrollable

Intermediate

Model Outcome

Evaluating Uncertainty Using Models Deterministic Analyses for answering “what-if” questions

Evaluating Uncertainty Using Models Probability Analyses for answering “what-if” questions

Controllable

Uncontrollable

Intermediate

Model Outcome

Regression Analyses

Simple Linear Regression

(One -Way Probabilistic)

Multiple Linear Regression

(N -Way Probabilistic)

Model uncertain relationships using data

Monte-Carlo Simulation

Model uncertain variables using probability distributions