MOD1 Handout EN · - Main consequences. KEY CONCEPTS AND MESSAGES: ... Land use changes (primarily deforestation) and agriculture contribute 13-15% each. Industrial processes (other

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Training workshops on mainstreaming climatechange in national

HANDOUT FOR PARTICIP

Understanding the basics of climate change science

The GCCA is funded by the European Union.

These training materials were developed with the support of the European Commission


orkshops on mainstreaming climatechange in national development planning

and budgeting

HANDOUT FOR PARTICIPANTS

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MODULE 1

the basics of climate change science

These training materials were developed with the support of the European Commission.


orkshops on mainstreaming climatedevelopment planning

ANTS

the basics of climate change science

Module 1: Understanding the basics of

MODULE 1 – Understanding

TOPICS COVERED BY THE MODULE:

- Observed trends and changes.- Causes of change: greenhouse gas emissions and the greenhouse effect- Main consequences.

KEY CONCEPTS AND MESSAGES:

Observed trends and changes

1. There is no doubt that the earth’s climate is getting warmer.point in the same direction. Manifestations of this change notably include increased average airtemperatures, increased average ocean temperatures, widespread melting orising sea levels. As a result, changes are observed inpermafrost, alterations in hydrological patterns and flows) and inthe range of some terrestrial species, shifts in the range and abundance of plankton and fish).Many documented changes in ecosystemsalso likely to be exacerbated by climate change (e.g. lossecoral reefs) (IPCC 2007a2007b &

Causes of change: greenhouse gas emissions and the greenhouse effect

2. Natural variability is an inherent feature of the climate, but there is no longer any reasonabledoubt that the changes we are observing today are to a large extent driven by anthropogenicemissions of long-lived greenhouse gasesemissions of such GHGs, and they have accumulated in the atmosphere at levels not observedover the past 650,000 years (IPCC 2007a &

3. Climate change is caused by theatmosphere trap part of the infrared radiation that the earth (heated by the sun’s energy)radiates back to space (see Figure 3.most useful since it allows maintaining the average globalin the absence of GHGs). However, fast increasingof ever-increasing anthropogenic emissions are now causing a very fast (by geological time) andvery significant increase in temperature at the surface of the earthhttp://wwf.panda.org).

4. With the exception of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other halogenated compounds, which arethe product of industrial activity, otherand ozone1) are naturally presentgases, as a result of fossil fuel burning,to their natural levels in the atmosphere

1 Water vapour is also a GHG. Its presence in the atmospherehydrological cycle).

the basics of climate change

Understanding the basics of climate change

reenhouse gas emissions and the greenhouse effect.

no doubt that the earth’s climate is getting warmer. Observed trends are clear and allpoint in the same direction. Manifestations of this change notably include increased average airtemperatures, increased average ocean temperatures, widespread melting orising sea levels. As a result, changes are observed in physical systemspermafrost, alterations in hydrological patterns and flows) and in biological systemsthe range of some terrestrial species, shifts in the range and abundance of plankton and fish).

in ecosystems that are attributable at least in part to other causes arealso likely to be exacerbated by climate change (e.g. losses of coastal wetlands, mangroves and

2007b & IPCC 2007c, World Bank 2010a).

Causes of change: greenhouse gas emissions and the greenhouse effect

is an inherent feature of the climate, but there is no longer any reasonablethe changes we are observing today are to a large extent driven by anthropogenic

lived greenhouse gases (GHGs). Indeed, human activities cause unprecemissions of such GHGs, and they have accumulated in the atmosphere at levels not observed

(IPCC 2007a & 2007b, World Bank 2010a).

Climate change is caused by the greenhouse effect, a phenomenon by which GHGs in theatmosphere trap part of the infrared radiation that the earth (heated by the sun’s energy)

Figure 3.1). The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon, which ismost useful since it allows maintaining the average global temperature at 15°C (rather than

HGs). However, fast increasing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs as a resultincreasing anthropogenic emissions are now causing a very fast (by geological time) and

e in temperature at the surface of the earth

With the exception of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other halogenated compounds, which arethe product of industrial activity, other major GHGs (i.e. carbon dioxide, methane

present in the atmosphere. However, human-driven emissions of thea result of fossil fuel burning, agriculture and land use change, have added significantly

to their natural levels in the atmosphere (IPCC 2007a & 2007b).

is also a GHG. Its presence in the atmosphere results from natural proc

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climate change science

Observed trends are clear and allpoint in the same direction. Manifestations of this change notably include increased average airtemperatures, increased average ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and

(e.g. melting of thebiological systems (e.g. shifts in

the range of some terrestrial species, shifts in the range and abundance of plankton and fish).that are attributable at least in part to other causes are

s of coastal wetlands, mangroves and

is an inherent feature of the climate, but there is no longer any reasonablethe changes we are observing today are to a large extent driven by anthropogenic

(GHGs). Indeed, human activities cause unprecedentedemissions of such GHGs, and they have accumulated in the atmosphere at levels not observed

, a phenomenon by which GHGs in theatmosphere trap part of the infrared radiation that the earth (heated by the sun’s energy)

. The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon, which istemperature at 15°C (rather than –18°C

atmospheric concentrations of GHGs as a resultincreasing anthropogenic emissions are now causing a very fast (by geological time) and

e in temperature at the surface of the earth (IPCC 2007a,

With the exception of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other halogenated compounds, which are(i.e. carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide

driven emissions of theseagriculture and land use change, have added significantly

results from natural processes (the


Source: WWF/IPCC (http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/

5. There are various ways of accounting for the contribution of various GHGs to climate change. Oneof them is the global warming potentialThis is a measure of how much a given mass of a GHG is estimatewarming, compared with the same mass of CO(notably in the context of the Kyoto Protocol) to estimate the potential future impacts ofemissions of different gases on thespan over which it is calculatedreference period used under the Kyoto Protocol), methane has a GWP of 25, nitrous oxide of 298,CFC-11 (an ozone-depleting substance phased out under the Montreal Protocol) of 4,750, andHFC-23 (a substance temporarily used as a substitute for chlorofluorocarbons) of 22,800;fortunately, these gases with a very high GWP are much less abundant than carbon dioxide2007b).

Table 3.1 – Global warming potential of some greenhouse gases

GHG Over 20 years

Methane

Nitrous oxide

CFC-11 (N.B. ozonedepleting substance)

HFC-23

SF-6

Source: Adapted from IPCC (2007


Figure 3.1 – The greenhouse effect

http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/

There are various ways of accounting for the contribution of various GHGs to climate change. Oneglobal warming potential (GWP, expressed in tonnes of CO2 equivalent or t CO

This is a measure of how much a given mass of a GHG is estimated to contribute to globalwarming, compared with the same mass of CO2 (by convention, GWP of CO(notably in the context of the Kyoto Protocol) to estimate the potential future impacts of

on the climate, in a relative manner. The GWP depends on the timeis calculated, as shown in Table 3.1; for instance, over a 100

reference period used under the Kyoto Protocol), methane has a GWP of 25, nitrous oxide of 298,depleting substance phased out under the Montreal Protocol) of 4,750, and

23 (a substance temporarily used as a substitute for chlorofluorocarbons) of 22,800;fortunately, these gases with a very high GWP are much less abundant than carbon dioxide

Global warming potential of some greenhouse gases

Over 20 years Over 100 years Lifetime (years)

72 25

289 298

6,730 4,750

12,000 14,800

16,300 22,800

IPCC (2007b) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Table 2.14

2

http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/)

There are various ways of accounting for the contribution of various GHGs to climate change. Oneequivalent or t CO2e).

d to contribute to global(by convention, GWP of CO2 = 1). It is used

(notably in the context of the Kyoto Protocol) to estimate the potential future impacts ofhe GWP depends on the time

; for instance, over a 100-year period (thereference period used under the Kyoto Protocol), methane has a GWP of 25, nitrous oxide of 298,

depleting substance phased out under the Montreal Protocol) of 4,750, and23 (a substance temporarily used as a substitute for chlorofluorocarbons) of 22,800;

fortunately, these gases with a very high GWP are much less abundant than carbon dioxide (IPCC

Lifetime (years)

12

114

45

270

3,200

Table 2.14, p. 212.


6. Historically, the use of energyemissions of GHGs. Over the past few decadesemerged as other significant sources of emissions. Today, the various uses of energy stillfor about two-thirds of total GHG emissions. Land use changes (primarily deforestation) andagriculture contribute 13-15% each. Industrial processes (other than energy use) contributeanother 4%, and the waste sector about 3%Gas Emissions Flow Chart (2005human activities to GHG emissions

Figure 3.2 – World Greenhouse Gas Emissions Flow Chart

Copyright:Source: Herzog (2005)

Main consequences

7. Using a variety of scenarios for future GHG emissions, the IPCC has preparedend of the 21st century. Relative to the period 1980expected increases in global average temperature by the end of this century range between 1.1and 6.4°C, while the range in sea level rise would be between 0.18 and 0.59 m. (These proare now considered quite conservative by some experts, in particular with regard to sea levelrise.) As already mentioned,biological systems, which in turn lead tosummary of the main biophysical and


energy obtained from fossil fuels is the main contributor to anthropogenicOver the past few decades, agricultural practices and land use changes

significant sources of emissions. Today, the various uses of energy stillthirds of total GHG emissions. Land use changes (primarily deforestation) and

15% each. Industrial processes (other than energy use) contributeanother 4%, and the waste sector about 3%. The World Resources Institute’s ‘

2005)’, shown in Figure 3.2, illustrates the contribution of varioushuman activities to GHG emissions at the global level.

World Greenhouse Gas Emissions Flow Chart (2005)

Copyright: World Resources Institute, Washington, DCSource: Herzog (2005) World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005, p. 2

Using a variety of scenarios for future GHG emissions, the IPCC has prepared. Relative to the period 1980-1999 and depending on the chosen scenario,

expected increases in global average temperature by the end of this century range between 1.1and 6.4°C, while the range in sea level rise would be between 0.18 and 0.59 m. (These proare now considered quite conservative by some experts, in particular with regard to sea level

As already mentioned, changes in the climate system result in changes in physical andbiological systems, which in turn lead to socio-economic impacts (EC 2009a).summary of the main biophysical and socio-economic impacts.

3

obtained from fossil fuels is the main contributor to anthropogenicland use changes have

significant sources of emissions. Today, the various uses of energy still accountthirds of total GHG emissions. Land use changes (primarily deforestation) and

15% each. Industrial processes (other than energy use) contribute’s ‘World Greenhouse

, illustrates the contribution of various

, p. 2

Using a variety of scenarios for future GHG emissions, the IPCC has prepared projections for the1999 and depending on the chosen scenario,

expected increases in global average temperature by the end of this century range between 1.1and 6.4°C, while the range in sea level rise would be between 0.18 and 0.59 m. (These projectionsare now considered quite conservative by some experts, in particular with regard to sea level

in changes in physical and. Figure 3.3 provides a


Figure 3.3 – Biophysical and

Source: EC (2009a

Summary

8. Figure 3.4 provides a schematic framework of anthropogenic drivers of climate change, how earthand human systems interact, and the role of adaptation and mitigation responses.

Figure 3.4 – Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses

Source: IPCC (2007a)


Biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change

Source: EC (2009a)/GCCA Support Facility

provides a schematic framework of anthropogenic drivers of climate change, how earthand human systems interact, and the role of adaptation and mitigation responses.

Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses

IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Figure I.1, p. 26.

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impacts of climate change

provides a schematic framework of anthropogenic drivers of climate change, how earthand human systems interact, and the role of adaptation and mitigation responses.

Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses

Figure I.1, p. 26.


REFERENCES:

EC (2009a) EC Cooperation: Responding to Climate Change‘Sector Scripts: Introduction and Key Concepts’. [On CD

Herzog T. (2005) World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005Washington, DC. Available from: http://www.wri.org/publication/world2005.

IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis ReportFourth Assessment Report. [Core Writing Team, Pachaury R.K. & ReisingerIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Available from:

IPCC (2007b) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science BasisFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [SolomonManning M., Chen Z., Marquis M.Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY,

IPCC (2007c) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilityGroup II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [ParryM.L., Canziani O.F., Palutikof J.P., van der Linden P.J. & Hanson C.E. (eds.)]. Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, UK & New York,

World Bank (2010a) Development and Climate ChangeWashington, DC. Available from: http://go.worldbank.org/ZXULQ9SCC0

USEFUL WEBSITES:

CO2 Now (volunteer-driven information website about atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gasesand climate change science):http://co2now.org/

WWF – Climate change explained:http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/


EC Cooperation: Responding to Climate Change – ‘Sector scripts’ series‘Sector Scripts: Introduction and Key Concepts’. [On CD-ROM]

World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005. Working paper, World Resources Institute,http://www.wri.org/publication/world-greenhouse

Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and II to thet. [Core Writing Team, Pachaury R.K. & Reisinger

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon

M., Averyt K.B. , Tignor M. & Miller H.L. (eds.)]. Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch.

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of WorkingGroup II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [ParryM.L., Canziani O.F., Palutikof J.P., van der Linden P.J. & Hanson C.E. (eds.)]. Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch.

Development and Climate Change. World Development Report 2010. World Bank,http://go.worldbank.org/ZXULQ9SCC0.

driven information website about atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases

change explained:http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/

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scripts’ series. See in particular

World Resources Institute,greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-

. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and II to thet. [Core Writing Team, Pachaury R.K. & Reisinger A. (eds.)]

www.ipcc.ch.

Working Group I to theFourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon S., Qin D.,

(eds.)]. Cambridge University

Contribution of WorkingGroup II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [ParryM.L., Canziani O.F., Palutikof J.P., van der Linden P.J. & Hanson C.E. (eds.)]. Cambridge University

. World Development Report 2010. World Bank,

driven information website about atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases

Documents

MOD1 Handout EN · - Main consequences. KEY CONCEPTS AND MESSAGES: ... Land use changes (primarily deforestation) and agriculture contribute 13-15% each. Industrial processes (other