Mobile Africa 2049:Mobile Africa 2049:What role for What role for applications?applications?

Mobility in Africa Foresight Workshop, June 1-2, 2010

Tim Kelly, Lead ICT Policy Specialist, infoDev / World Bank

A brief history of typewriters• Mobiles in 2010 = Typewriters in 1950:

Current focus is on the device rather than the applications

• Typewriter first commercialized in US in 1870s – important innovations included the QWERTY keyboard, carbon paper, portability etc

• From 1960s onwards, computers began to be integrated into computers – a similar analogy would be the transition of mobiles into smartphones with addition of memory, IP capability, keyboards etc

• By 1980s, typewriters were transitioning to “word processors” – typewriters becoming “keyboards” on other devices like mobile is a “communications capability” for other devices

• By 2010s, typewriter keyboards are becoming “invisible” – the typewriter is now a device application than can be turned on when required

What lessons for mobile 2049?• Mobiles in 2049 =

Typewriters in 2010:Mobiles will be impossible to “count” because they appear in so many different forms

• The focus will be on the application not the device – Could we have imagined, in 1950, the uses of keyboards in 2010?

• Non-human mobile “users” will greatly outnumber human ones – machine to machine communications in an “Internet of Things”

• Usage costs will approach zero – Flat-rate, rather metered, pricing will be the norm within the next 10 years

• Everything over IP

On-board mobiles communicate with similar devices in other vehicles for collision avoidance

Mobile communication embedded into universal communicator device

Navigation Mobile updates real-time traffic and weather conditions

Mobiles report real-time vehicle data for automated carbon tax collection

Why are mobile applications so important for Africa today?

• Mobile already represents the largest delivery platform for development applications – e.g., M-Pesa in Kenya

• No adequate substitutes are available – mobiles outnumber PCs by >16:1

• Low barriers to entry – Standard-based tools are available free of charge

• Market is highly segmented and localized – industry has not yet had its “Google moment”

• High export potential – compare with India’s success in offshore s/w development

Growth of fixed and mobile connections in Africa, 1998-2008, in millions

Source: ITU World Telecom Indicators Database.

Creating Sustainable Businesses in the Knowledge Economy

• A public-private partnership, launched on Dec 17 2009▫ Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Finland▫ infoDev / World Bank▫ Nokia

Other partners include Mobile Monday, Korea ICT4D Fund, MCT Mozambique

• Three key areas of focus▫ Agribusiness▫ Mobile communications▫ Innovation, SME creation and

supporting technology entrepreneurs• Three regions

▫ Africa▫ Asia▫ Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (ECA)

Track 1: Mobile Applications

• Regional Mobile applications laboratories▫ Three labs to be established in Africa, Asia and Eastern

Europe▫ Labs intended to develop between 8-10 mobile applications

• Possible Lab functions▫ Training and accreditation▫ Certification▫ Competition for Ideas▫ Replication of successful applications▫ Mentoring of start-ups and SMEs (via incubators)▫ Repository of knowledge and best practice cases▫ Consumer behaviour research▫ Facilitating access to finance / access to markets

• Mobile social networking▫ Working with Mobile Monday to extend the model of an

innovation network to extend the reach of mobile applications

▫ Launch of MoMo Kampala on 8 March▫ Launch of MoMo Nairobi on 11 March▫ Other planned launches in Mozambique and Tanzania

Creating Sustainable

BusinessesBusinessesin the Knowledge Economy