Missouri Climate Trendsghrpc.org/Documents/lower grand meeting 2 pp.pdf · Missouri Climate Trends Updated through Dec 31, 2015 •Missouri’s most recent warm annual temperature

Missouri Climate Trends

Pat Guinan Extension\State Climatologist

University of MissouriUniversity of Missouri

Our Missouri Waters‐Lower Grand Watershed Healthy Watershed Planning Meeting #2 Thursday, January 21, 2016, FSRC

2015 is warmest year on record…

Global Temperature Anomalies (1895‐2015) 10 yr running mean( ) 10 yr. running mean

2015 was 1st warmest

mal (°F)

from

Norm

Dep

arture f

1977

D

Using long‐term average: 1901‐2000

Warm YearCool Year

Source: NOAA/MCC

Contiguous U.S. Temperature Anomalies (1895‐2015)

10 yr running mean 2015 = 2nd warmest( )10 yr. running mean

2012

2015 = 2 warmest

mal (°F) 1934

201520061998

from

Norm

Dep

arture f

D

Using long‐term average: 1901‐2000Warm YearCool Yearg g g

Source: NOAA/MCC

Missouri Temperature Anomalies (1895‐2015)

10 yr running mean 2015 = 23rd warmest( )

10 yr. running mean

19211931 1938

20122015 = 23rd warmest

mal (°F)

1931 1938 1998

from

Norm

Dep

arture f

1912 19241978

1979D

1917 1979

Using long‐term average: 1901‐2000Warm YearCool Yearg g g

Source: NOAA/MCC

U.S. National Weather ServiceCooperative Weather Station Network

“The Backbone of the Nation’s Climate Records”

28 Pioneer Stations (still active)

NWS Cooperative Network in Missouri

Missouri Annual Average Temperature (1895‐2015*)(1895 2015 )

Long‐term average: 54.6°F 5 yr. running mean2012

*Sep‐Dec 2015 data are preliminary

re (°F) 1921

1931 1938 1998

2012

Tempe

ratur

l Average T

Ann

ual

19121917

19241978

1979Warm PeriodCool Period

Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center

Missouri Average Winter Temperature (Dec‐Jan‐Feb, 1895‐2015*)

*The winter of 2014 is defined as Dec 2014 and Jan, Feb 2015

Long‐term average: 32.1°F 5 yr. running mean

W P i d

ure (°F)

Warm PeriodCool Period

r Tempe

rat

age Winter

Avera


Missouri Average Spring Temperature (Mar‐Apr‐May, 1895‐2015)


2012

ure (°F)


19771991

2007

Tempe

ratu 1987 2007

age Spring

Avera

1924 1931 1947

1960

19831984

1960


Missouri Average Summer Temperature (Jun‐Jul‐Aug, 1895‐2015)


ture (°F)

1901

19341936

1954 1980

r Tempe

rat

ge Sum

me

Avera

19151927 1950 1992 2004



Missouri Average Summer Maximum Temperature ( l )

19011913

19341936

1980(Jun‐Jul‐Aug, 1895‐2015)

1915 1927 1950 1992 2004

Missouri Average Summer Mi i T

1934

1936 195420102011

Minimum Temperature (Jun‐Jul‐Aug, 1895‐2015)

1936 1954

1915 1927 1950 1967 1992


Missouri Average Autumn Temperature (Sep‐Oct‐Nov, 1895‐2015*)


1931*Sep‐Nov 2015 data are preliminary

ature (°F)

18971963

19982015

mn Tempe

raage Autum

Avera


1932 1951

1976

19961993

Cool Period


Missouri Annual Average Precipitation (1895‐2015*)(1895 2015 )

Long‐term average: 40.86” 5 yr. running mean

*Sep‐Dec 2015 data are preliminary

on (in.) 1927

1973 1993 20082015

Precipitatio

al Average

Ann

ua

19011936

1953

1976 1980Wet PeriodDry Period


y e od

Missouri Average Winter Precipitation (Dec‐Jan‐Feb, 1895‐2015*)

*The winter of 2014 is defined as Dec 201 and Jan, Feb 2015


on (in.)

1915‐16

1936‐37

1949‐501948‐49 1984‐85

Precipitati

ge W

inter

Avera

Wet PeriodD P i d

1919‐201962‐63

1963‐64

1969‐701976‐77

Dry Period


Missouri Average Spring Precipitation (Mar‐Apr‐May, 1895‐2015)


1927 1973

on (in.) 1898

19271945

2008

Precipitatio

age Spring

PAvera 1971

Wet PeriodDry Period

19301932 1934 1936


Missouri Average Summer Precipitation (Jun‐Jul‐Aug, 1895‐2015*)

Long‐term average: 12.18” 5 yr. running mean*2015 data are preliminary

4th wettest

ation (in

.) 19151928

1951 1993 2015

4 wettest

er Precipita

age Summe

Avera

1901 1930

19361953

2012Wet PeriodDry Period


Missouri Average Autumn Precipitation (Sep‐Oct‐Nov, 1895‐2015*)

Long‐term average: 10.17” 5 yr. running mean*2015 data are preliminary

tion

(in.)

1926

1941

1984 19861993

n Precipita

age Autum

nAvera

Wet PeriodDry Period

18971904 1950

1953 1956


2012 Drought…many, many impacts

E. Cole E. Cole

E. Cole

P. Guinan

C. Starbuck

P. Guinan

P. Guinan

USACE

MO DNR

K. Graham @Hayleee

Missouri’s biggest climatic vulnerability is drought…

Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average* y p p gJan 2011 – Dec 2015

)

*Long‐term average: 1895‐2010

verage(in

.)

Jan 2011‐Dec 2015 departure from normal: +12.71”

32 out of 60 months below normal, 53%

ong‐term

av

ure from

loDep

artu

NOAA/Missouri Climate Center

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average*

Missouri’s biggest climatic vulnerability is drought…

The 1952‐56 period is the driest 5*Long‐term average: 1895‐2010)

y p p gJan 1952 – Dec 1956

The 1952‐56 period is the driest 5 consecutive years on record for Missouri.

Jan 1952‐Dec 1956 departure from normal: ‐ 48.09 inches!!

45 t f 60 th b l l 75%average(in.)

45 out of 60 months below normal, 75%

ong‐term

aure from

loDep

art

NOAA/Missouri Climate Center

1952 1953 1954 1955 1956

Missouri Monthly Precip. Departure from Average* J D 2015

2015 weather story…

Jan‐Dec 2015*Long‐term average: 1895‐2010 Sep‐Dec data are preliminary

Flood

in.)

FloodFlood

Average (i Drought Monitor, 11‐10‐15

rture from

Drought

Dep

a

Year = 2015

2015 weather story…

Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure from Average* J D 2015Jan‐Dec 2015

Sep‐Dec data are preliminary*Long‐term average: 1895‐2010

W t D d

°F)

Warmest Dec on record

Average (°

rture from 5th warmest

autumn on record

Dep

a

Year = 2015

Number of Daily Rainfall Events ≥ 3‐inches in Missouri 1895 20151895‐2015

10 yr. running mean1895‐1985 average: 15.6/year 1986‐2015 average: 20.8/year (33% increase)

nche

s

19932008

vents ≥ 3 in

19612009

2015

. of D

aily Ev

No.

Data Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate CenterYear

Impacts… flooding, late planting, fallow fields, nutrient loss, erosion, compaction, wet pastures, weeds, diseases, etc.

Linda Geist

Linda Geist

Dave Marner

Linda Geist

Linda Geist

Missouri Average Nov Precipitation (in.) Missouri Average Dec Precipitation (in.)

199219852015 1982Long‐term average: 2.89 in. Long‐term average: 2.34 in.

19921985 1982

18952015

2015

Missouri Average Nov‐Dec Precipitation* (in.)

19921982

Long‐term average: 5.23 in.

Major Flooding, Late Dec 2015

Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Dec 26‐29, 2015

MRCC

Missouri Climate Trends Updated through Dec 31, 2015

•Missouri’s most recent warm annual temperature trend began in 1998; 13 out of the past 18 years (72%) have been above normal; 2012 was the warmest year on record (since 1895).

•Seasonally, Missouri winters and springs have experienced the greatest warming trend; 17 out of the past 26 winters (65%) and 14 out of the past 18 springs (78%) have been above normalhave been above normal.

•The median last spring frost date in Missouri is occurring about 3‐4 days earlier over the past 30 years compared to the long‐term average.

•Recent temperature trend signals during the summer and autumn have been fairly weak. Up until the past few years (2010‐12), Missouri summers have not been unusually hot compared to others in the past, ie. 1901, 1934,1936, 1954 and 1980. The biggest degree ofcompared to others in the past, ie. 1901, 1934,1936, 1954 and 1980. The biggest degree of summer warming has been with minimum temperatures.

•The median first fall frost date in Missouri has varied little over the past 30 years d h lcompared to the long‐term average.

Missouri Climate Trends•Beginning in the early 1980’s and since 1895 an unprecedented wet period has

Updated through Dec 31, 2015

•Beginning in the early 1980 s, and since 1895, an unprecedented wet period has evolved in Missouri. Since 1981, 21 out of 35 years (60%) have had above normal precipitation.

•Over the past few decades all 4 seasons have witnessed more above normal•Over the past few decades, all 4 seasons have witnessed more above normal precipitation years in Missouri; most notably in winter where 20 out the past 34 winters (59%) recorded above normal precipitation. Snowfall trends have been declining.

•Over the past few decades, Missouri has witnessed an above normal trend in heavy (≥ 1”) and extreme (≥ 3”) daily precipitation events compared to the long‐term average.

•Recent historical trends for Missouri indicate an unprecedented multi‐decadal wet period beginning in the early 1980’s. Conversely, there have been multi‐decadal dry periods, i.e. 1950’s and 1960’s.

•Extended dry and wet patterns can change abruptly and there are numerous occasions, where Missouri transitioned from one extreme to another in a short period of time.

•The 2012 drought resulted in numerous impacts, affecting many sectors in Missouri. However, it was a young drought when compared to other historic droughts, i.e. 1952‐56. An important question we all need to consider is how prepared are we when the next 1950’s drought affects the Show Me State?

Missouri Mesonet

Real‐time

Linn County, FSRC

http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/

http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/

cli-MATE (MRCC Application Tools Environment)

mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/

December 27, 2015

www.cocorahs.org

Dec 27, 2015,

www.cocorahs.org

September 10, 2014Linn County MOLinn County, MO

10.82

8 908.907.57

4.80

www.cocorahs.org

CoCoRaHS Impacts and Application:

The CoCoRaHS network has been operational in Missouri for 9 years and has been a valuable resource. Currently, more than 350 observers report daily inCurrently, more than 350 observers report daily in Missouri and all 114 counties in the state have at least one observer. Outcomes associated with having a viable, online real-time network of precipitation observing in

•Drought Assessment

Missouri include:

Drought Assessment

•Flood Assessment

•NWS and Regional Climate Centers

•River Forecast Centers- model application

www.climate.missouri.edu

http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/wealinks.htmWeather & Climate Resources

River Information Resources for Missourihttp://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/river.htmRiver Information Resources for Missouri

Missouri Climate Centerhttp://climate missouri eduhttp://climate.missouri.edu