7
Input-Output Analysis LCA Methodology Missing Inventory Estimation Tool Using Extended Input-OutputAnalysis Sangwon Suh1 and Gjalt Huppes CML (Centre of Environmental Science), Leiden University, PO Box 9518, NL-2300RA, Leiden, The Netherlands 1Corresponding author ([email protected]) Introduction Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) is the most time and resource- consuming phase in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Various options, including streamlining techniques, have been dis- cussed to reduce the amount of effort involved in LCI and maintain the quality of the results at the same time. Recent studies have shown how economic Input-Output Analysis (IOA) may indicate useful directions for these attempts. In- put-output tables with additional environmental data can supply environmental information on economic activities based on a relatively complete system, while requiring rela- tively little time and resources. Thus, LCI results based on input-output techniques have been generally regarded as a quick screening method that can be used in preparation for a more detailed study. The present study, however, starts from the opposite end: can IOA be used to make LCA more comprehensive? A proc- ess-specific LCA starts by compiling data from individual processes within the system boundary. However accurate these are, process-specific LCA is based on an incomplete system, since not all inputs and outputs are covered by the process-based system. In contrast, the prime merit of na- tional input-output tables is that they fully cover the eco- nomic activities within the national borders, so that the sys- tem is relatively complete. However, the completeness in terms of a system boundary is acquired at the cost of poor resolution in terms of industry classification, as well as sev- eral years of base year difference and the loss of process specificity. Thus, operational tools are required to combine process-based LCA with IOA, preferably using only the ad- vantages of the two. One such tool that has been developed is the Missing Inventory Estimation Tool (MIET), which is being further improved to support process-specific LCA by enlarging the system boundary to include an entire national economy and to minimise the defects of IOA. MIET has been developed using the US input-output table and various environmental statistics based on an explicit distinction between commodity and industry output. Enter- ing the estimated price of a missing flow either in the pro- ducer's or the consumer's price, MIET supplies inventory results for missing flows as well as characterised results, using around 100 different impact assessment methods that are in common use. Since the first release of MIET 1.1 in year 2000, the tool has been improved and updated, and MIET 2.0 is now being used in 29 different countries. This paper aims to provide a better understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of adopting IOA in LCA, and to introduce the methods and principles of MIET as one operational approach that combines the strengths of proc- ess-specific LCA and system-encompassing IOA. Addition- ally, we clarify some points of confusion hampering the ad- equate use of IOA in LCA, as between industry output and commodity, consumer's price and producer's price, etc. This paper is organised as follows: The next section discusses the problem of system boundary selection practices in LCA and how IOA can solve this problem. It then briefly presents 134 Int J LCA 7 (3) 134 - 140 2002) 9 ecomed publishers, D-86899 Landsberg, Germany and Ft. Worth/TX, USA 9 Tokyo, Japan 9 Mumbai, India 9 Seoul, Korea

Missing inventory estimation tool using extended input ... · Input-Output Analysis LCA Methodology Missing Inventory Estimation Tool Using Extended Input-Output Analysis Sangwon

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Missing inventory estimation tool using extended input ... · Input-Output Analysis LCA Methodology Missing Inventory Estimation Tool Using Extended Input-Output Analysis Sangwon

I n p u t - O u t p u t A n a l y s i s L C A M e t h o d o l o g y

Missing Inventory Estimation Tool Using Extended Input-Output Analysis Sangwon Suh 1 and Gjalt Huppes

CML (Centre of Environmental Science), Leiden University, PO Box 9518, NL-2300RA, Leiden, The Netherlands

1 Corresponding author ([email protected])

Introduction

Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) is the most time and resource- consuming phase in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Various options, including streamlining techniques, have been dis- cussed to reduce the amount of effort involved in LCI and maintain the quality of the results at the same time. Recent studies have shown how economic Input-Output Analysis (IOA) may indicate useful directions for these attempts. In- put-output tables with additional environmental data can supply environmental information on economic activities based on a relatively complete system, while requiring rela- tively little time and resources. Thus, LCI results based on

input-output techniques have been generally regarded as a quick screening method that can be used in preparation for a more detailed study.

The present study, however, starts from the opposite end: can IOA be used to make LCA more comprehensive? A proc- ess-specific LCA starts by compiling data from individual processes within the system boundary. However accurate these are, process-specific LCA is based on an incomplete system, since not all inputs and outputs are covered by the process-based system. In contrast, the prime merit of na- tional input-output tables is that they fully cover the eco- nomic activities within the national borders, so that the sys- tem is relatively complete. However, the completeness in terms of a system boundary is acquired at the cost of poor resolution in terms of industry classification, as well as sev- eral years of base year difference and the loss of process specificity. Thus, operational tools are required to combine process-based LCA with IOA, preferably using only the ad- vantages of the two. One such tool that has been developed is the Missing Inventory Estimation Tool (MIET), which is being further improved to support process-specific LCA by enlarging the system boundary to include an entire national economy and to minimise the defects of IOA.

MIET has been developed using the US input-output table and various environmental statistics based on an explicit distinction between commodity and industry output. Enter- ing the estimated price of a missing flow either in the pro- ducer's or the consumer's price, MIET supplies inventory results for missing flows as well as characterised results, using around 100 different impact assessment methods that are in common use. Since the first release of MIET 1.1 in year 2000, the tool has been improved and updated, and MIET 2.0 is now being used in 29 different countries.

This paper aims to provide a better understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of adopting IOA in LCA, and to introduce the methods and principles of MIET as one operational approach that combines the strengths of proc- ess-specific LCA and system-encompassing IOA. Addition- ally, we clarify some points of confusion hampering the ad- equate use of IOA in LCA, as between industry output and commodity, consumer's price and producer's price, etc.

This paper is organised as follows: The next section discusses the problem of system boundary selection practices in LCA and how IOA can solve this problem. It then briefly presents

1 3 4 Int J LCA 7 (3) 134 - 140 2002) �9 ecomed publishers, D-86899 Landsberg, Germany and Ft. Worth/TX, USA �9 Tokyo, Japan �9 Mumbai, India �9 Seoul, Korea

Page 2: Missing inventory estimation tool using extended input ... · Input-Output Analysis LCA Methodology Missing Inventory Estimation Tool Using Extended Input-Output Analysis Sangwon

LCA Methodology Input-Output Analysis

several approaches to adopting IOA in LCA, with their ad- vantages and problems. The next section presents the MIET methodology as well as its data sources, while the two final sections discuss the limitations and future outlook of MIET.

1. Use of IOA in LCA

1.1 Problems of cut-off in LCA

Production of any functional output that an LCA deals with involves a near infinite number of processes through direct and indirect input-output relations. A motor vehicle, for example, is produced using various parts and equipment, and these parts and equipment also require numerous raw and ancillary materials as well as energy, capital goods and so on. The number of connections in a 'commodity flow web' proliferates as one goes through the upstream proc- esses. Although the importance of each flow may taper off through far upstream, indirect relations, the number of flows also drastically increases. In practice, LeAs only deal with some of the processes - hopefully the important ones - in- volved in the production of a given functional output. In this sense, all LCIs are truncated, with several processes in- corporating only some of the inputs actually present.

Before certain processes can be ignored, they should be shown to be negligible according to ISO standards (ISO 1998). ISO suggests using three criteria to identify these processes at the start of the iterative procedure [1]: mass, energy and environ- mental relevance. Of these three cut-off criteria, mass and en- ergy are frequently used, although mass has been found to be a poor indicator in some case studies (e.g. Suh 2000 [2]). In general, environmental relevance has only limited applicabil- ity as a cut-off criterion since the problem in selecting 'prom- ising processes' is that the importance of the flows is normally not known before the actual collection of detailed data- choices have to be made on a basis that is as yet unknown.

One approach being used to solve this problem is based on the existence of reliable and easy-to-use traits indicating the overall environmental importance of a process. If such a trait exists for all processes, it can be directly employed as an efficient cut-off criterion leading to an equal degree of completeness between the alternatives investigated. Raynold et al. analysed whether mass and energy contents could serve as such traits, and concluded that these two alone cannot provide reliable information on the environmental signifi- cance of flows [3]. In addition to mass and energy, Raynold et al. included an economic factor in their system boundary selection procedure [3-4]. This approach seems reasonable since every cost driver involves certain economic activities, which are very likely to be related to environmental inter- ventions. However, the relation between cost and environ- mental effects will differ for different items. In view of the diverging origins and great variability of environmental im- pacts, therefore, it is dangerous to generalise the relation- ship between a few simple traits and overall environmental impacts based on deductive inference. 1 Hunt et al. tested ten different methods to streamline LCI and concluded that the

1 Raynolds et al, also limited the application area of their method to the most common, combustion-related air emissions.

validity of such traits can be judged only on a case-by-case basis [5]. If a reliable indicator or set of indicators perfectly correlated with overall environmental consequences truly exists, it would be better to use such an indicator to calcu- late the inventory than to cut it off.

As long as we are unable to generalise the relationship be- tween cut-off criteria and the magnitude of environmental consequences, it is difficult to justify any omission of flows, although this justification is required by ISO standards. Thus, it is necessary to somehow cover the omitted flows, rather than cutting them off. On the other hand, it is impossible in practice to gather all the specific data for every single proc- ess involved in the production of a given functional unit. Therefore, a model is required that is simple enough to be operational and, at the same time, complex enough to rep- resent the commodity flow web, if only as an estimation.

1.2 Input-Output Analysis (IOA)

One such model is that of input-output accounts. Input-out- put accounts are part of the national accounts used in most countries of the world. The term input-output accounts gen- erally refers to three tables, the intermediate transaction ta- ble, the final demand table and the primary inputs table. In principle, since all transactions occurring within a country are recorded in these input-output tables, the system bound- ary of IOA fully covers the whole range of national eco- nomic activities. The intermediate part of the input-output accounts (hereafter referred to simply as the input-output table) shows how much input each industry uses from other industries in order to produce its own output. Each column of an input-output table consists of coefficients that repre- sent the relative amount of inputs required to produce one dollar's worth of output of an industry. Assuming these co- efficients to be fixed, any magnitude of output of a given industry will require inputs from other industries propor- tional to these fixed coefficients. Based on this assumption, it is possible to calculate the total direct and indirect input requirements to fulfil a certain external demand.

In principle, the total amount of inputs required can be cal- culated by adding upstream input requirements step by step, as is being done in common LCIs. According to the 1996 US input-output table, for example, the production of $1 worth of output by the 'Motor freight transportation and ware- housing' industry requires $0.044 of 'Petroleum refining and related products' as one of the direct inputs [6]. $1 worth of output from the 'Petroleum refining and related products' industry, in turn, requires $0.051 worth of services from the 'Motor freight transportation and warehousing' industry as one of its direct inputs. Assuming that these two industries produce only primary products, $1 worth of services cre- ated by 'Motor freight transportation and warehousing' needs 0.044"0.051=$0.0022 worth of indirect input from itself up to the second tier of this particular input path. This circular pattern will continue and will be tapered off at last. The amount of 'self requirement' in this particular path can be calculated analytically by Z:=I (0.044X 0.051)", which converts to $0.00220485. However, given the complex in- terdependence of industries in modern economies, each in- dustry requires inputs from virtually all other industries, with

Int J LeA 7 (3) 2002 1 3 5

Page 3: Missing inventory estimation tool using extended input ... · Input-Output Analysis LCA Methodology Missing Inventory Estimation Tool Using Extended Input-Output Analysis Sangwon

Input-Output Analysis LCA Methodology

each reciprocal relation constituting a closed loop. The sheer number of closed loops makes an add-on type of calculation of total input requirements seem hopeless, z

W. Leontief elegantly solved this computational problem using a few assumptions and simple matrix inversion, now known as the Leontief multiplier [7]. Leontief's solution model can be summarised as a system of non-homogeneous equations (1).

a] lx l + a]2x2 + a]3x3 +... + al,oCl + . . . + al, . ,x, . - d ] = 0

a21xl + az2x2 + a23x3 + . . . + a2,0q + . . . + a2,,,x,, - d2 = 0

a 3 1 x l + a 3 2 x 2 + a 3 3 x 3 + . . . --t- a 3 i x l + . . . + a3 , , , x , , , - d3 = 0

ailx1 + a i2x2 + ai3x3 +. . . + ai jx i + . . . + ai,,x,, - di = 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

U,mXl + ara2X2 + a=3x3 4-... + a, nflr +... + ammX,, - d,, = 0

(1)

x i is the total quantity of the ith industry's output produced, and d i is the quantity of the ith industry's output consumed by non-industry consumers (final consumers and importers abroad). Off-diagonal elements of ai ix i, which are generally non-positive, are the quantity of the ith industry's output used to produce the jth industry's output. The case of i = j, that is the diagonal elements of aiixi , represents the quantity of net production from each industry in the system, which has a positive sign. The set of equations in (1) says that the total industry output produced equals the total industry output consumed by industry and end consumers. This can be rewritten as-

m

E a i j x j -- & = O, (2) j=l

with

- 1 < a i i -<0, for all i ;ej and 0 <aii <- 1, d i > 0 for all i (i, j = 1, . . . , /~v/).

Or briefly,

A x - d = 0 (3)

The technology matrix A shows the inter-industry interde- pendence of the economy for a given area and time. One can calculate industry-wide total requirements, x, as required to meet an arbitrary final demand, y, by

x = A - l y . (4)

The inverse matrix, A -1 is known as the Leontief multiplier. It shows the amount of output required from all industries to produce a unit of each industry's output.

2 If every industry has N inputs, then the number of input paths at the nth tier upstream will be N n. The number of input paths up to the 5th order of the upstream tier, for example, will be 100,000 if each industry has only 10 inputs from other industries.

1.3 Approaches to link IOA and LCA

Since 1960s, the application of Input-Output Analysis (IOA) for environment-related analysis has been attempted by vari- ous researchers, including Leontief, the founder of IOA [8- 11]. Application of IOA in LCA started from the early 1990s. Moriguchi et al. (1993) utilised the completeness of the up- stream system boundary definition of the Japanese input- output table for LCA-type applications [12]. Using the gen- eral formula shown in equation (5), economy-wide environ- mental emissions for an arbitrary final demand y have been calculated as:

M = PA-ly (5)

M denotes direct and indirect environmental intervention due to an arbitrary, final demand y, and matrix P gives di- rect pollutant emissions for each dollar of output in each sector. Later, this line of approach has been further improved using more comprehensive environmental data in the US, e.g. by Hendrickson et al. [13].

However, the coarseness of commodity classification in the national input-output table carries inherent difficulties in uti- lising the result in higher-level applications such as process improvement and chain management, which are the main ap- plication areas of LeA. Therefore, Treloar (1997) disaggregat- ed part of the input-output accounts to avoid this drawback, and used this disaggregated input-output table for embodied energy analysis [14]. Later, Joshi (2000) followed this approach in comparing steel and plastic fuel tanks [15].

Another line of approach has been formalised in the field of energy analysis. Bullard and Pillati (1976), and Bullard et al. (1978), combined process-based energy analysis, which is similar to process-based LeA, with IOA to calculate the net energy requirements of the US economy [16-17]. In do- ing so, energy analysts were able to expand the system bound- ary while still largely preserving process-specific informa- tion (see e.g. Wilting 1996). This type of approach is referred to below as the 'tiered hybrid' method.

1.4 Problems in linking IOA and LCA

Although IOA can enhance the system boundary complete- ness of an LCA study, there are also problems. An impor- tant problem in applying IOA to LeA is that the data sup- plied by input-output based analysis is generally poor in most aspects of data quality, except for system boundary com- pleteness. And even the system boundary completeness can be challenged if the product system under study relies heav- ily on imported goods. Furthermore, the commodity classi- fication is not fine enough to be used as a substitute for LCA. Lave et al. (1995) already addressed the inadequacy of the input-output approach for detailed LCA. Since even the most detailed input-output table combines different com- modities in one classification, an analysis based only on the input-output table can provide comparisons only at a ge- neric sector level [19]. Therefore, input-output based tech- niques are inadequate for analyses like the identification of key processes or chain management within the same indus-

136 int J LCA 7 (3) 2002

Page 4: Missing inventory estimation tool using extended input ... · Input-Output Analysis LCA Methodology Missing Inventory Estimation Tool Using Extended Input-Output Analysis Sangwon

LCA Methodology Input-Output Analysis

try classification, let alone for the comparison or improve- ment of products in the same category. Another problem is that collecting transaction records and balancing them re- quires significant amounts of work, depending on the size of the economy, so that statistical offices usually publish input-output tables with a time lag of several years.

Furthermore, there are inconsistencies in the industry clas- sification system between the input-output tables and envi- ronmental emission data. The US input-output table, for example, has been compiled using the industry classifica- tion of the Department of Commerce (DOC), while envi- ronmental emission statistics are compiled using various other classification systems including the Standard Industry Classification (SIC). This difference may lead to subjective choices. For instance, if an SIC code is represented by two industry classification codes in the input-output table, then the environmental data based on the SIC code must some- how be allocated to the two DOC industries. This requires assumptions such as economic output based allocation.

There are methodological problems as well. In equation (5), matrix A may be either an industry-by-industry matrix or a commodity-by-commodity matrix. If A is an industry-by- industry table, y should also be the final demand for indus- try output. The value of the information about an industry output, which may include various functionalities, is very limited, since in the US, for instance, up to 77.8% of the market share of a commodity may be dependent upon in- dustries that are not producing the commodity as their pri- mary product. Conversely, the proportion of secondary prod- ucts produced by an industry may represent up to 88.6% of the total industry output in monetary terms [20]. This prob- lem will be discussed further in the next section.

If matrix A in (5) is a commodity-by-commodity matrix, there is still a problem. Given the fact that environmental data is compiled based on the establishment classification instead of the commodity classification, the column index of the envi- ronmental intervention matrix, P in (5), will be industries rather than commodities. This means that the operation in (5) is not congruent, since P is the environmental intervention-by-indus- try matrix, while A -1 is the commodity-by-commodity ma- trix. This is exactly the multifunctionality problem which LCA practitioners face, requiring some as yet disputed allocation procedures for its solution. So far, these problems have been barely noted in the literature on input-output based LCA, in- cluding [16-20].

2 Methods

2.1 MIET methodology

MIET is designed to support process-specific LCA using the tiered hybrid method and, at the same time, to avoid as much as possible the problems discussed above. The general strat- egy of MIET is to minimise the use of input-output based data for major processes, by restricting its application only to the flows located at the margin of the system boundary, so that process specific data can be utilised as much as pos- sible and the boundaries are expanded to the full system at the same time.

Secondly, MIET utilises the supply and use framework to cope with the mukifunctionality problem. The original work by Leontief does not provide information on 'commodity', but only on 'industry output', which includes secondary products, by-products and primary products. From the perspective of LCA, the value of information about industry output is rather unclear, since LCA is a function-based evaluation system, re- gardless of where the commodity is being produced, and since the amounts of secondary products and by-products in an in- dustry output are considerable [20]. Thus, an explicit distinc- tion between industry output and commodity is needed, and this has been provided using the supply and use framework. The supply and use framework was developed with integral contributions by R. Stone, for which, together with his efforts on the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), he received the Nobel prize in 1984. The distinction between industry output and commodity requires that the input requirements and pollut- ant emissions of an industry be assigned over its multiple com- modity output, whose situation is very similar to the muhifunctionality problem in LCA.

Most countries in the world have employed the supply and use framework for their national accounts according to the System of National Accounts (SNA) [21]. In the US, the Department of Commerce has been preparing supply and use matrices since 1972. The value of the supply and use framework is, first, that this framework greatly improves the statistical quality, because the goods and services used and produced by each establishment are more fully known than the industries where they came from. Secondly, this framework makes an explicit distinction between commod- ity and industry output, which enables the appropriate treat- ment of secondary products, by-products and scrap. From the LCA perspective, the supply and use framework shows a greater value for input-output accounts, and provides an appropriate basis for further allocation options.

In input-output economics, three allocation models and one combination of the three models are generally used in the supply and use framework. 3 They are the commodity-tech- nology model, the industry-technology model, the by-prod- uct technology model, and the mixed technology model. MIET utilises a commodity-by-commodity total require- ments matrix derived from the supply and use table, using either the commodity-technology assumption or the indus- try-technology assumption. The detailed calculus used to derive the total requirement matrix can be found in Stone et al. 1963 and US DOC 1998 [22-23]. The first and the sec- ond model will be briefly discussed below.

The industry-technology model assumes that the total of envi- ronmental interventions by an industry is proportionally as- signed to its primary and secondary products, based on their economic value. This method utilises the market share ma- trix, D, which is provided by the Bureau of Economic Analy- sis (BEA) as part of the national accounts. Direct and indirect environmental interventions by arbitrary final demand on com- modity y are then calculated by equation (6).

M=PDA-ly (6)

3 Beware that economists speak of 'models', where in LCA we speak of allocation 'methods'.

Int J LCA 7 (3) 2002 137

Page 5: Missing inventory estimation tool using extended input ... · Input-Output Analysis LCA Methodology Missing Inventory Estimation Tool Using Extended Input-Output Analysis Sangwon

Input-Output Analysis LCA Methodology

This model is fully in line with what is called the partition- ing method in LCA allocation.

The other model treated here, the commodity-technology model, is based on the assumption that each commodity has its own characteristics in generating environmental inter- ventions, regardless of the specific industry where it is pro- duced. The environmental intervention of a primary prod- uct of an industry is then calculated by subtracting the amount of environmental intervention by secondary prod- ucts, referring to the industries that produce these second- ary products as primary products. This method follows ex- actly the same line of reasoning as the substitution method in LCA allocation. The proof and calculation of this method is complicated and will not be treated further here, but can be found in [24]. MIET has been calculated using both meth- ods. For a detailed discussion of the allocation models in IOA and their implication for LCA, see Suh (2001b) [25].

A practical problem, which is often neglected, concerns the monetary presentation in IOA. For a number of reasons, the input-output table is generally calculated on the basis of pro- ducer's prices, but the price information that LCA practitioners obtain from procurement records refers to consumer's prices. By using consumer's prices, input-output based LCIs will al- ways result in underestimation. Calculation of consumer's prices requires data on retail and wholesale trade margins and trans- portation cost, which is not generally known to purchasers.

MIET includes default values for retail and wholesale mar- gins and transportation costs for each commodity in its calcu- lation program, so that consumer's prices can be directly used for missing data estimation. Therefore, MIET only requires the estimated price of each missing flow (in 1996 US $) to show both inventory and characterised results of the missing flow. It should be noted, however, that if it is possible to use producer's prices, this improves the accuracy of the estimates.

DOC, and data from the National Center for Food and Agri- cultural Policy (NCFAP) and the World Resources Institute (WRI) [26-37]. These sources are the most up-to-date ones, and some of the data sources have been significantly improved very recently. US EPA, for example, recently released TRI 98, with seven new sectors added. These additional sectors were calculated to be responsible for 67.4% of total toxic releases by mass. The overall environmental intervention matrix com- pilation procedure is illustrated in Fig. 1.

In order to enhance the manageability of such a large data- base, collected data have been divided into 5 data modules according to data sources and characteristics. Data modules and their data sources are summarised in Table 1.

First, annual environmental interventions generated by indus- tries were compiled within each module. Greenhouse gas emis- sions by industry were compiled mainly using EIA and BEA data. The US Department of Energy (DOE 2000a) provides CO 2 emission data due to energy use for most of the manufac- turing industries [28]. Missing data in DOE (2000a) were es- timated using fuel-use data and emission factors [27,29,31- 32]. CO 2 emissions by non-fuel use, including cement manufacturing, lime manufacturing and steel making, were added to the corresponding industries, referring to DOE (1999) [27]. CO 2 emissions by Flue Gas Desulfurisation (FGD) facili- ties were distributed and added to each industry's annual emis- sion inventory based on energy use by industries, referring to DOE (1997) [29]. CO z emissions by industries other than manufacturing were calculated based on fuel-use data sup- plied by BEA, which includes end-use fuel consumption data on nine major fuels in monetary terms [32]. Fuel-consump- tion data was converted into physical units by applying price data for different fuel and consumer types, referring to DOE (1998), and CO 2 emissions by industry were derived by multi- plying with emission factors from DOE (1999) [26-27]. Emis-

2.2 Compilation of environmental data

The environmental intervention matrix P, which is required to construct equation (6), was compiled using various informa- tion sources, including the Toxic Releases Inventory (TRI) 98, the Aerometric Information Retrieval System (AIRS), data from the Air Quality Planning and Standards office of the US Envi- ronmental Protection Agency (EPA), Energy Information Ad- ministration (EIA) data from the US Department of Energy (DOE), Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data from US

Fig. 1: Overall procedure of environmental intervention matrix compilation

138 Int J LCA 7 (3) 2002

Page 6: Missing inventory estimation tool using extended input ... · Input-Output Analysis LCA Methodology Missing Inventory Estimation Tool Using Extended Input-Output Analysis Sangwon

LCA Methodology Input-Output Analysis

sions of other greenhouse gases, including nitrous oxides and methane, were compiled using EIA and EPA data [30-31]. Toxic pollutant emissions by industry were calculated using the TRI 98 database [33-34]. Stationary and mobile emission of con- ventional pollutants, including carbon monoxide, nitrogen di- oxide, lead, sulfur dioxide, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and particulate matter (PM10), were compiled using the Aerometric Information Retrieval System [35]. Pesticide-use data was based on NCFAP data [36], which includes pesticide use for crop production - excluding forestry - and other use of pesticides. In terms of resource use, only fossil fuel resources extraction was considered in MIET, using WRI data [37].

The resulting annual environmental intervention matrix was classified based on the Standard Industry Classification (SIC), which differs from the industry classification used in the US national accounts. Therefore, the SIC-based annual environ- mental intervention was assigned to each input-output code based on the standard comparison table provided by BEA. Fi- nally, annual environmental intervention by each industry was divided by annual industry output to produce the environmen- tal intervention per unit of dollar value of industry output, P.

The resulting matrix, P, contains 1170 types of environmental interventions, ranging from 1,1,1,2-tetrachloro-2-fluoroethane to Ziram, and includes air, water, soil (including agricultural soil) emissions and fossil-fuel resources extraction. Since this completes all the information required, calculation of total direct and indirect environmental interventions by commodi- ties, using equation (6), is straightforward.

3 Limitations of MIET

Since MIET utilises input-output techniques, shortcomings pertinent to input-output techniques are also applicable to MIET. Shortcomings in terms of validity relate mainly to the relatively high level of aggregation for LCA application, and the inventory results supplied by MIET are products of input-output data, environmental statistics and price esti- mation for missed flows. The credibility of the result is there- fore also subject to the uncertainty in these source data.

Sebald (1974) calculated upper and lower bounds of vari- ability for the Leontief multiplier given a range of deviation for all elements of the technology matrix [38]. Sebald's ap- proach shows the worst-case uncertainty of the Leontief multiplier in that all elements indicate maximum or mini- mum possible deviation at a specific time. The upper and lower bounds derived show an astronomical uncertainty level for Leontief multiplier, to such an extent that the result of IOA appears useless. However, Bullard and Sebald (1988) re-examined the uncertainty level of the input-output model using the Monte Carlo method. Admitting cancellation ef- fects between randomly determined negative and positive elements, the Leontief multiplier was then found to have a much lower variability level (-1%-49/0) [39].

Although the environmental intervention matrix is compre- hensive and employs the most up-to-date sources, there are several limitations. TR198 is one of the most extensive toxic emission inventory databases in the world and has gone through considerable improvements in its coverage of in- dustry very recently. However, TRI still does not include the

services and agricultural sectors, and even in manufacturing sectors, it excludes establishments that have less than 10 full-time or equivalent employees, or that process less than 25,000 pounds, or use less than 10,000 pounds of any listed chemical. This limitation may lead to severe underestima- tion for sectors like 'plating and polishing', where small- sized enterprises comprise a considerable proportion of the total. Furthermore, TILl data are based on reports provided by the firms involved, rather than on independent measure- ments by third parties. Other sources, like AIRS, are based on processed data, partly based on measurements and partly on modelling, and are expressed as coefficients involving other variables, with their uncertainties. Inevitably, such compiled data sources are based on different calculation methods and will involve different definitions.

MIET does not include some of the environmental interven- tion types considered relevant in LCA, viz. noise and odour, radioactive substances and land use. Therefore, the result of the assessment using current data cannot be used to assess the impacts of these missed environmental interventions.

There are several other sources of validity problems. National input-output accounts are restricted by the borders of a coun- try, so that they do not include upstream relations linked to imported goods. In the present study, imported goods were assumed to be produced using the same technologies used in the US. While the overall proportion of imported goods is quite limited in the US economy, this can introduce consider- able uncertainty for sectors dependent upon imported goods.

The temporal difference between data compilation and cur- rent process operation is another source of validity problems. MIET is based on the 1996 US input-output table. Even the most recent input-output tables and environmental data avail- able are generally several years old, while processes within the product system under study are generally more recent. For sectors with rapid technological progress, this may imply quite different input-output characteristics and environmental emis- sions. Although the overall reliability of MIET is regarded as acceptable, its results may still show considerable underesti- mation for some sectors and environmental interventions. Hence, MIET's results should be regarded as a lower bound of environmental consequences and should be used only for those missing flows for which better data is not available.

Finally, current MIET methodology assumes that there are no interactions between the process-based system and the input-output based system. In other words, LCA parts and input-output parts are not really interconnected; results of the input-output part are simply added to the LCI result. This implies that the interactive relationship between proc- esses within the LCA system's boundary and the industries in the input-output system cannot be properly described.

4 Outlook

MIET has been developed specifically to estimate missing in- ventories, based on an explicit distinction between commod- ity and industry output, and utilising the most recent data sources. However, the currently available version of MIET is not yet complete. It will be continuously updated to reflect both methodological developments and up-to-date data sources.

Int J LCA 7 (3) 2002 139

Page 7: Missing inventory estimation tool using extended input ... · Input-Output Analysis LCA Methodology Missing Inventory Estimation Tool Using Extended Input-Output Analysis Sangwon

Input-Output Analysis LCA Methodology

O ne of the ma in lines of recent methodological development is the hybrid method [14-15 ,40-42] . Hybrid LCA methods can be divided into tiered hybrid, input -output based hybrid, LCA based hybrid and integrated hybrid methods. The current set- up of M I E T is designed to support only the tiered hybrid ap- proach by supplying background data. Suh and Huppes (2000) have developed a f ramework to overcome this problem by com- bining the inpu t -ou tpu t and the LCI computa t ional structure [41] in one integrated hybrid method. Flows in the input-out- pu t system are expressed in terms of their monetary values, normalised by total product ion, while the process-specific part of the LCI technology mat r ix comprises product flows in physi- cal units, normal ised by their operat ion time. Suh and Huppes showed, despite the difference, that these two systems can be fully inter-linked, if a few condi t ions are imposed and the inter- action between the two can be simulated. Suh (2001c) further improved this model by in t roducing the supply and use frame- work for bo th LCA and input -output systems [42]. Reflecting these methodological aspects in MIET requires new software.

Over a slightly longer per iod of time, M I E T will be expanded to inc lude m o r e geographica l uni ts . An i n t e rn a t i ona l con- so r t i um to es tabl ish regional ised in t e rna t iona l i n p u t - o u t p u t tables wi th env i ronm e n t a l extensions has been launched [43]. In add i t i on to the US table, Aust ra l ia an d The Ne the r l ands , and poss ib ly J a p a n , wil l be the first count r ies to be covered by this c o n s o r t i u m . The resul t ing data will be inc luded in M I E T as s o o n as they become available.

References

[1] ISO (1998): Environmental management- Life cycle assessment - Goal and scope definition and inventory analysis. ISO 14041, Geneva, Swit- zerland

[2] Suh S (2000): Integrating cost information into alternative evaluation system for pollution prevention - An application of life cycle assess- ment and total cost assessment for an electromagnetic filtering device. Ajou University, Korea: downloadable at htt~://www.leidenuniv.nl/cml/ ssts/staff/Thesis-full.Ddf

[3] Raynold M, Roydon F, Checkel D (2000a): The relative mass-energy- economic (RMEE) method for system boundary selection, Part I: A means to systematically and quantitatively select LCA boundaries. Int J LCA 5 (1) 37-46

[4] Raynold M, Roydon F, Checkel D (2000b): The relative mass-energy- economic (RMEE) method for system boundary selection. Part II: Se- lecting the boundary cut-off parameter (ZRMEE) and its relationship to overall uncertainty. Int J LCA 5 (2) 96-104

[5] Hunt RG, Boguski TK, Weitz K, Sharma A (1998): Case studies exam- ining LCA streamlining techniques. Int J LCA 3 (1) 36-42

[6] Okubo O, Lawson AM, Planting MA (2000): Annual input-output accounts of the U.S. Economy, 1996, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, Washington D.C., USA

[7] Leontief WW (1936): Quantitative input and output relations in the economic systems of the United States. The Review of Economic Sta- tistics 18 (3) 105-125

[8] Isard W (1968): Some notes on the linkage of the ecologic and eco- nomic systems. Regional Science Association, XXII, Budapest, 85-96

[9] Ayres RU, Kneese AV (1969): Production, consumption, and externali- ties. The American Economic Review 59 (3) 282-297

[10] Leontief W (1970): Environmental repercussions and the economic structure: An input-output approach. Review of Economics and Statis- tics 52 (3) 262-271

[11] Victor P (1972): Economics of pollution. Macmillan, Great Britain [12] Moriguchi Y, Kondo Y, Shimizu H (1993): Analyzing the life cycle impact

of cars: the case of CO 2. Industry and Environment 16 (1-2) 42-45 [13] Hendrickson C, Horvath A, Joshi S, Lave L (1998): Economic input-

output models for environmental life cycle assessment. Environmental Science & Technology News, April 1,184-190

[14] Treloar G (1997): Extracting embodied energy paths from input-out- put tables: towards an input-output-based hybrid energy analysis method. Economic Systems Research 9 (4) 375-391

[15] Joshi S (2000): Product environmental life-cycle assessment using input- output techniques. Journal of Industrial Ecology 3 (2-3) 95-120

[16] Bullard CW, Pillati DA (1976): Reducing uncertainty in energy analy- sis, CAC-doc. no. 205. Center for Advanced Computation, University of Illinois, Urbana, USA

[17] Bullard CW, Penner PS, Pilaff DA (1978): Net energy analysis - hand- book for combining process and input-output analysis. Resources and Energy 1,267-313

[18] Wilting HC (1996): An energy perspective on economic activities. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Groningen, The Netherlands

[19] Lave LB, Cobas E, Hendrickson C, McMichael F (1995): Using input- output analysis to estimate economy-wide discharges. Environmental Science & Technology 29 (9) 420-426

[20] Miller R, Blair P (1985): Input-output analysis: Foundations and ex- tensions. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, USA

[21] UN (1968): A system of national accounts studies in methods. Series F, No. 2 Rev. 3, United Nations, New York, USA

[22] Stone R, Bacharach M, Bates J (1963): Input-output relationships, 1951- 1966. Programme for Growth, Volume 3, London, Chapman and Hall

[23] US Department of Commerce (1998): Benchmark input-output accounts of the United States, 1992. Industry Economics Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, USA

[24] Suh S (2001a): MIET 2.0 User's Guide. Downloadable at httD://www. leidenuniv.nl/cml/ssn/software/miet

[25] Suh S (2001b): Generalised calculus of allocation in life cycle assess- ment - Implications of economic models. CML Working Paper, CML, Leiden University, The Netherlands

[26] Department of Energy (1998): Combined state energy Data System 1997 (CSEDS). DOE/EIA-0376(97), Washington DC, USA

[27] Department of Energy (1999): Emission of greenhouse gases in the United States 1998. DOE/EIA-0573(98), Washington DC, USA

[28] Department of Energy (2000a): Annual Energy Review 1999. DOE/ EIA-0384(99), Washington DC, USA

[29] Department of Energy (1997): Manufacturing consumption of energy 1994. DOE/EIA-0512(94), Washington DC, USA

[30] Department of Energy (2000b): Greenhouse gas emission database. Database file, Energy Information Administration, Washington DC, USA

[31] Environmental Protection Agency (2000): Inventory of US. Greenhouse gas emission and sinks: 1990-1998. EPA 236-R-00-001, Washington DC, USA

[32] Bureau of Economic Analysis (1998): Fuel consumption table for 1992, Database file

[33] Environmental Protection Agency (2000): Toxic releases inventory 98. Database CD-ROM

[34] Environmental Protection Agency (2000): Envirofact customized query on TRI 98. Available at httD://www.eDa.eov/enviro/

[35] Environmental Protection Agency (2000): Air quality standard and planning data. Available at httD://www.eDa.eov/airs/

[36] National Center for Food and A.gricultural Policy (1995): Pesticide use in the US crop production. Washington D.C., US

[37] World Resources Institute (1998): World resources database diskette - A guide to the global environment. Washington DC, USA

[38] Sebald AV (1974): An analysis of the sensitivity of large scale input- output models to parametric uncertainties. Center for Advanced Com- putation, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, CAC Document No. 122

[39] Bullard CW, Sebald AV (1988): Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of input-output models. The Review of Economics and Statistics 70 (4) 708-712

[40] Marheineke T, Friedrich R, Krewitt W (1998): Application of a hy- brid-approach to the life cycle inventory analysis of a freight transport task. Total Life Cycle Conference and Exposition, Austria

[41] Suh S, Huppes G (2000): Gearing input-output model to LCA - Part I: General framework for hybrid approach. CML Working Paper, CML, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands

[42] Suh S (2001c): A hybrid model for environmental systems analysis - Supply and Use framework for Life Cycle Assessment. CML Working paper, CML, Leiden University, The Netherlands

[43] Suh S (ed.) (2001): Proceedings of European network of environmen- tal input-output analysis. Madrid, Spain. Downloadable at htt-p://www. leidenuniv.nl/cml/ssn/envioa/

Received: April 2001 Accepted: March 19th, 2002

OnlineFirst: March 26th, 2002

140 Int J LCA 7 (3) 2002