Minnesota Transportation Climate Change Planning

Saint Paul Climate Action Plan May 2017

Philip Schaffner

Policy Planning Director

Climate Change Impact Confidence In

Change for MN in next 20 years

Effect to Transportation System

Heavy Precipitation/Flooding Very High

Damage to highway and rail infrastructure, airport runways

Overtopping roads will slow operations and performance

Slope failures and erosion

Warmer Winters Very High

More ice

Reduced pavement conditions and life cycles

Downed power lines with ice storms

New species ranges High

Changes in roadside vegetation mixes

Soil erosion

Increase in invasive species populations

Increased exposure of construction and maintenance crews to vector-borne diseases

Drought Medium Reduced river navigability for barges

Roadside vegetation stress, which may reduce rainwater storage and increase soil erosion in the long-

term

High Heat Low

Pavement and rail buckling

Vehicles overheating

Electrical system malfunctions

Limitations on construction hours

Wildfires Unknown

Road closures

Immediate and significant threat to human safety

Damage to roadside infrastructure

Climate Impacts to MN Transportation

Highly vulnerable (Tier 1 and 2) assets are not necessarily in imminent danger of flooding, nor are lower vulnerability assets

immune from flooding. Values are indicators of relative vulnerability compared with other assets in the same district.

New GHG Performance Measures

• Minnesota Statewide Multimodal Transportation Plan

• Adopted January 2017

• New Measure and Target for transportation sector (29.5 million tons by 2025)

• New Federal Measure – delayed indefinitely

4

Transportation GHG Emissions

5

41.8 41.4 42.1 40.8 39.2 39.0 39.0 39.3 39.0 38.8 [VALUE]

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Minnesota Transportation GHG Emissions (millions of tons CO2e)

Source: MPCA, 2015 is MnDOT’s preliminary estimate

Light & Medium

Duty [PERCEN

TAGE]

Heavy Duty 16%

Aviation 10%

AC [PERCEN

TAGE]

Natural Gas

Trans [PERCEN

TAGE]

Rail [PERCEN

TAGE]

Marine [PERCEN

TAGE]

2014

20

25

Target

Vehicle Miles Travelled in Minnesota

6

0B

10B

20B

30B

40B

50B

60B

70B

Ve

hic

le M

iles

Trav

elle

d P

er

Year

in

Bill

ion

s

Source: MnDOT

Twin Cities Transit Trends

73.3 67.2

80.7 85.1

89.0 94.7

88.9 91.0 93.9 93.9 94.3 97.6 98.8

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Millions of Rides, All Providers

7 Source: Metropolitan Council

Transportation Outcomes Are Slow to Change…

The vast majority of Buildings in 2030

Already exist

The vast majority of roads, bridges, sidewalks and trails, and rail lines in 2030

Already exist

Many of the cars and trucks on MN roads in 2030

Are driving on our roads today

Aging Infrastructure

The bulk of Minnesota’s highway system was originally constructed 40-70 years ago.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99

Stat

e H

igh

way

Lan

e M

iles

Pavement Age (Years) Source: MnDOT, Data from 2014

Simplified Equation for Transportation GHG Emissions

Distance Travelled

Energy Per Unit of Distance

GHG Emissions Per Unit of Energy

Complementary Strategies

• Compact & Mixed-Use Development

• Building efficiencies

• Opportunities for shorter trips

• Create necessary density of origins/destinations to support transit

• Transit + biking and walking

• Support compact development patterns

• Create transit-oriented development opportunities

We need to address emissions per unit of energy

Electric Vehicles

• Light/medium duty vehicles

•Buses in certain types of service

•Probably not heavy duty vehicles

• Important: pair with renewable energy

MnDOT GHG Emission Targets

MnDOT Actions

• Formed Sustainable Transportation Steering Committee, champion is our Chief Engineer

• Designated I-94 as an Electric Vehicle Corridor

• Working with MPCA on EV charging plan

• Complete Streets

• Exploring Solar on ROW and at MnDOT facilities

• Engaging other transportation agencies in discussion on reducing emissions

17

Wild Card: Vehicle Automation

• Cars, trucks, buses, “ground drones” and more…

Thank you

www.mndot.gov/climate