Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSFJanuary 2020
Mining Conference
This document includes certain statements that constitute “forward‐looking statements” and “forward-looking information” within the meaning of
applicable securities laws (collectively, “forward‐looking statements”). Forward-looking statements include statements regarding Altius Minerals
Corporation’s (“Altius”) intent, or the beliefs or current expectations of Altius’ officers and directors. Such forward-looking statements are typically
identified by words such as “believe”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “project”, “intend”, “expect”, “may”, “will”, “plan”, “should”, “would”, “contemplate”,
“possible”, “attempts”, “seeks” and similar expressions. Forward‐looking statements may relate to future outlook and anticipated events or results.
By their very nature, forward‐looking statements involve numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and
the risk that predictions and other forward‐looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Do not unduly rely on forward‐looking statements, as a
number of important factors, many of which are beyond Altius’ control, could cause actual results to differ materially from the estimates and
intentions expressed in such forward‐looking statements.
Forward‐looking statements speak only as of the date those statements are made. Except as required by applicable law, Altius does not assume
any obligation to update, or to publicly announce the results of any change to, any forward‐looking statement contained herein to reflect actual
results, future events or developments, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting the forward‐looking statements.
Forward Looking Statements
Altius Differentiators
3
Altius is known to be different from most mining sector royalty and streaming companies for its focus on commodities rather than precious
metals.
Altius is also different in several other ways …
At current commodity prices the
portfolio is delivering an approximate
average 15% unlevered IRR against
purchase prices and this is
translating into the highest 5-year
EBITDA per share growth rate in the
sector.
Disciplined, countercyclical, royalty
acquisition strategy delivering
strong-returns on invested
capital on a full cycle basis
Long-life (i.e. large resource) assets
allow for organic mine expansion
based growth at no additional
acquisition or capital costs to the
royalty holder. Uncapped royalty
structures preserve this optionality
fully while offering more security than
stream contracts.
Combination of long life asset
base and royalty dominated
structures provides exceptional
upside at low risk
20+ year proven record of “negative
cost” royalty creation – with excess
profits used to fund third-party royalty
acquisitions, share buybacks and
debt repayment.
Pipeline royalties are created
organically as part of a
complementary exploration project
generation business
Counter-Cyclical Discipline
• Significant cash profits earned during most recent up-cycle period were held until subsequent downcycle matured, enabling 4 years of intense
M&A activity to grow a diversified, long-life royalty portfolio
• Expansions and new builds at existing royalty projects now dominate Altius’s growth profile as counter-party miners begin to redeploy cyclically
improved operating margins
• This type of growth requires no further investment from Altius, allowing greater capital allocation prioritization on de-leveraging and capital
returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks
4
IPO & INITIAL YEARS
▪ Many exploration
projects acquired
through downturn
▪ Non-dilutive PG
exploration business
model developed
ROYALTY REVENUE GROWING FAST AS
COMMODITY PRICES BEGIN TO RECOVER
▪ Chapada, IOC and lithium royalties added with
organic royalty growth expected from Gunnison
▪ Renewable Energy investments to create
additional royalties and replace coal
▪ Increased potash royalty ownership
▪ 57 project vend-outs and 2 spin-outs completed
4
Royalty Acquisition
Altius Interpretation
of Mining Cycle
Position
COMMODITIES SUPERCYCLE
▪ Voisey’s Bay royalty acquired
▪ Three successful exploration spin-outs and many JV’s
resulting in over $200M in monetized profits
2002 – 20111997 – 2001
COMMODITIES SUPERCYCLE
ENDS
▪ 13 producing royalties
acquired as debt crisis hits
producers
▪ Exploration project portfolio
also opportunistically
replenished
2012 – 2015 2016 – Present
5
Growth With A Shareholder Alignment Focus
Revenue
Growth: 14.5x
Growth: 14.5x
Non-IFRS Measures - Attributable revenue and adjusted EBITDA is intended to provide additional information only and do not have
any standardized meaning prescribed under IFRS and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures ofperformance prepared in accordance with IFRS. 2019 ROC based on market capitalization at 2019 year end.
$6M
$28M$33M
$47M
$67M
$78M $75 - $80M
FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 2018 2019 2020Guidance
Dividends$5M
Dividends$5M
Dividends$7M
Dividends$8M
Share buy back$1M
Share buy back$1M
Share buy back$5M
Share buy back$9M
FY 2016 FY 2017 2018 2019
Return to Shareholders
2019 Return of Capital: 3%
-$0.20
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
Adj. EBITDA Per Share (Quarterly)
Growth: 14.5x Countercyclical investment strategy, prudent use of
leverage and limited share-based dilution has
caused revenue growth to translate into strong
EBITDA and cash flow growth on a per share basis
6
Cory
Rocanville Esterhazy
Vanscoy
New Mines in Construction
Extension / Expansion Feasibility Renewable Development Portfolio
New Mine Studies
Royalty Growth Pipeline Requires No Additional Capital Investment
Built Developing Advancing
Kami (Iron Ore)
Telkwa (Met. Coal)
Voisey’s Underground
(Nickel-Cobalt-Copper)
Gunnison
(Copper)
Chapada
Expansion (Cu) 1500MW+ Portfolio
Curipamba (Copper +)
Groto do Cirilo (Lithium)
Completed Potash Expansions Ramping Up
Allan
Royalty Growth Pipeline
7
Historic Royalty Acquisition Returns
AcquisitionAcquisition
Date
Purchase
Price
Realized
After-Tax Unlevered Cashflow
Net Asset Value(5%)
Consensus
Realized Cashflow + NAV
vs.
Purchase Price
Voisey's Bay 2003 $13.6 million $24.6 million $18.2 million 314%
Chapada Stream 2016 $76.8 million $33.6 million $124.0 million 205%
Potash Portfolio 2014 & 2018 $138.2 million $36.0 million $226.9 million 190%
IOC 2017 & 2019 $69.1 million $22.6 million $106.1 million 186%
Callinan Merger 2015 $70.9 million $32.4 million $71.7 million 147%
Coal Portfolio 2014 $191.7 million $62.6 million $67.1 million 68%
$560.3 million $211.7 million $614.0 million 147%
Note:
1. Purchase price is based on cash purchase price in CAD. For the acquisition of Callinan Royalties in 2015, the purchase price excludes cash and consideration allocated to non-royalty related
assets. (see Note 9, 2016 Annual Financial Statements), and also includes the cost to exercise the option increasing the Gunnison Gross Sales Royalty (exercised in 2018).. The main
producing royalty in Callinan is 777 with the Gunnison development stage royalty also part of that acquisition.
2. After tax unlevered cash flow is the cumulative (since acquisition) reported revenue up to June 30, 2019 after accounting for 27% corporate income tax. For LIORC, the effective tax rate is
adjusted to zero to reflect the actual tax rate on inter-corporate dividends. For the Chapada copper stream, reported revenue is net of a 30% deduction to reflect the cost of purchasing copper,
as per the contract. The effective tax rate on Chapada is 0% until the initial deposit of US$60 million is fully recovered. Voisey’s Bay royalty revenues are shown net of the 20% Newfoundland &
Labrador royalty tax.3. Consensus NAV by asset based on analysts reports from July - September 2019. The Callinan NAV consensus is based on NAV ascribed to 777 and to Gunnison
Base Metals9%
Base Metals37%
Thermal Coal56%
Thermal Coal16%
Metallurgical Coal 7%
Metallurgical Coal 4%
Potash23%
Potash21%
PremiumIron 20%
Other 5%Other 2%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Diversified Portfolio Aligned with Global Sustainability Trends
Global Macro Trends
• Fossil Fuel Phase Out for Power Generation and Transportation (Coal to Renewables)
• Metals Intensive Electrification (Cu-Ni-Li-Co)
• Food Demand Growth and Crop Yield Maximization (Potash)
Past Present Future
† Revenue commodity distribution for 2015 is based on fiscal year ended April 30, 2015.8
2015 2019†
• Air-quality based flight to quality in
iron ore to provide stability and
potential growth for IOC mine
royalty
• Continuing potash royalty volume
growth fully embedded
• Coal to be completely phased out
of our mix and replaced with
renewable energy project
royalties
• Copper and nickel royalties stable
to growing on new mine builds
and expansions within portfolio
• Battery metals to gradually enter
our revenue mix
27
32
49
65
95
10
5
1
24
1
12
27
22
19
1
18
18
2
3
7
20
Vanscoy
Rocanville
Allan
Esterhazy
Cory
Genesee
Sheerness
Paintearth
Cheviot /Highvale
Gunnison
777
Voisey's Bay
Chapada
IOC Reserve Mine Life (Years)
M&I Resource Life (Years)
Inferred Resource Life (Years)
Po
tash
Co
al
Base M
eta
lsIr
on
85+ year revenue weighted average resource life
M&I: 113 Years
Inferred: 130 Years
M&I: 1,263 Years
Inferred: 1,032 YearsTotal: 2,391 Years
Total: 515 Years
M&I: 52 Years
Inferred: N/ATotal: 118 Years
M&I: 476 Years
Inferred: 788 YearsTotal: 1,314 Years
M&I: 194 Years
Inferred: 86 YearsTotal: 313 Years
+
+
+
+
+
† Mine lives calculated based on current mineral inventory and 2018 throughput. Thermal coal asset lives denote the
expected plant closure and not based on reserves. The 2018 revenue weighted average mine life is based on remaining
reserves inclusive of MI resources and throughput capacity.
Longest Asset Life Sustainability Profile in Resource Royalty Sector
Replacement: Conversion to Long-Life Renewable Royalties Underway
Replacement: Gunnison, Voisey’s Underground, Chapada
Growth Potential, Curipamba Development Potential
Higher Prices / Lower Cut-off Grade Creates Significant
Additional Resources, Further Exploration Potential
Renewable Energy Royalties – Replacing Coal While Adding Growth
o Altius Renewable Royalties Corp. (“ARR”) is a newly created subsidiary of Altius Minerals Corporation.
o Strategic objective of replacing relatively short-life electrical coal generation royalties with long-life, renewable electricity generation royalties.
o ARR has completed a first transaction with Tri Global Energy (“TGE”) to gain royalties related to a portfolio of more than 1,500 MW of
development stage wind energy projects located in Texas, Nebraska and Illinois for a total investment up to US$30 mm.
o In October, TGE announced the achievement of a milestone under the agreement, as a private investment company has acquired a 360MW
Texas wind energy project from TGE, which will now be subject to an ARR gross sales royalty. In December, TGE also sold the 400MW
Illinois Wind Energy Project to Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners. Of the US$30 mm commitment, TGE has requested and Altius has
funded US$14 million so far. Once created, the royalties are for the ultimate life of the project and capture life extensions and/or expansions -
providing excellent further option value potential.
10
$22M$33M
$54M $54M
$17M
April 2016 April 2017 December2018
December2019
Proven Equity/Royalty Investment Strategy Allows Creation of New Pipeline Royalties at Negative Cost and Even Provides Cash for 3rd Party Royalty Acquisitions
11
Project Generation: Creating New Royalties and Equity Profits
57
Projects
114,000
Meters
Converted to new royalties and
junior equities since 2016 market
bottom
Externally funded drilling completed
(based on reporting from operators)
across pre-production stage royalty
portfolio in 2019
Junior Equity Portfolio Growth
After
accounting
for $17M
cash sales
generated
through
monetization
of some
assets within
the PG
portfolio. $200M +
Monetized equity gains during
previous cycle
(2002 - 2010)
Altius generates mineral exploration projects for sale in
exchange for royalties and equity positions
Research Coverage
Craig Hutchison
Richard Gray
Brian MacArthur
Carey MacRury
Jacques Wortman
Orest Wowkodaw
TSX: ALS | OTCQX: ATUSF
Issued Common Shares 42.1 million
Fairfax Preferred Securities 10.0 million
Basic Market Capitalization $489 million
Annual Dividend $0.20 per share
Outstanding Debt $109 million
Cash and Public Equity Holdings† $169.2 million
Available Under Credit Revolver $86 million
Insiders Ownership 5.9%
Capital Structure
† All dollar figures are in Canadian dollars as of January 22, 2019. Cash and public equity holdings includes $22 million cash + $54.1 million
junior equities portfolio position + $93 million LIORC position. Net Debt to Ebitda multiples are provided as at September 30, 2019..12
Debt, Cash & Investments
$M
$75M
$150M
$225M
Debt Investments Cash
F 2016 F2017 2017 2018 2019
Net Debt $11M - $19M - $126M - $52M - $60M
3.0x
1.3x
x
1x
2x
3x
2016 2017 2018 2019
Net Debt to Ebitda
24.1x 32.1x
37.9x 42.4x 49.3x
61.2x
ALS WPM OR RGLD FNV SSL
11.0x
16.4x 17.2x 18.8x 19.6x
25.2x
ALS OR SSL WPM RGLD FNV
13.7x 16.1x
18.3x 19.1x 22.0x
27.4x
ALS OR SSL WPM RGLD FNV
EV/EBITDA (2020E)†
P/CF (2020E)†
† Consensus estimates for multiples based on S&P Capital IQ and market close data as of January 20, 2019.
Attractive Relative Valuation
P/E (2020E)†
13
0.96x 1.03x 1.35x
2.14x
2.84x 2.94x
ALS OR SSL WPM RGLD FNV
P/NAV†
Thank You
14
PRODUCING
ROYALTIES
DEVELOPMENT
ROYALTIES
PROJECT GENERATION
PROJECT
RENEWABLE ENERGY
PORTFOLIO
CONTACT
INFORMATION
Flora Wood
Director, Investor Relations
Phone: (416)346-9020
Email: [email protected]