MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

Jakub Montewka, PhDPresenter: Kaarle Ståhlberg, MSc

Aalto University, Kotka Maritime Research Centre

November 4th, 2011Steering Committee meeting

Background

MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

November 4th, 2011

• Maritime traffic poses various hazards

• Oil spills are often major disasters

• Risk management actions forced by catastrophic spills.

• Post-accident policies not comprehensive, biased by the characteristics of single accident.

picturepenzance.co.uk/photos/files/2/8/4/torrey117.jpg

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Background

MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

November 4th, 2011

• Most major spills from sea transport• Spill size not a measure of

environmental damage

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/8664684.stm

Present status – the oil tankers traffic in the Gulf of Finland

MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

November 4th, 2011

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/

On avarage more than 3000 ships bound to the Gulf of Finland monthly.

MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

November 4th, 2011

Present status – modelling the oil tankers traffic in the Gulf of Finland

Research conducted within a flagship project EfficienSea, 2009-2012

Motivation for MIMIC

Current Models• Segregated models

– Effects on details• Results are abstract

– Accident probability– spill size

• Poor future predictivity

MIMIC• Holistic approach

– System level effects• Results as RCO’s

– Risk Control Options– Policy decision support

• Future trends– Traffic flows– Ship design

MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

November 4th, 2011

Holistic risk assessment for the maritime domain

MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

November 4th, 2011

• System > Σ parts• Changes in one part -> system changes

IMO. Guidelines fo Formal Safety Assessment for use in the IMO rule-making process. MSC/Circ.1023, MEPC/Circ.392, 2002

A framework for modelling a risk in maritime domain

MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

November 4th, 2011

RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk analysis Risk criteria Risk control options Recommendations

Human factors

Technical factors

Ship type

Surroundings

Consequence type

Social impactSocial impact

Economical impact

Environmental impact

Frequency reduction

Consequence mitigation

Regulations

Ship design and operation

Waterway design and operation

Risk optimization

MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

November 4th, 2011

Risk=Probability x ConsequencesProbability:• Navigators performance• Waterways• Ship managment• etc...

Consequences:• Ship crashworthiness• Damage ship stability• Accident response• etc...

1. Define feasible options and dependencies among them. 2. Define the constrains.3. Perform the optimization having the risk as an objective.4. Find the set of optimal solutions.5. Consider the optimal solutions as RECOMMENDATIONS

MIMIC contributions

MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

November 4th, 2011

• Contribution for several stakeholders• Society• Policy makers• Ship managers

• EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region• ‘to make the Baltic Sea Region a safe and secure place’• linking security issues with safety management• ‘to make the Baltic Sea region an environmentally sustainable

place’

• Applicable for ant other sea area• Gulf of Finland as demonstrative area

MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

November 4th, 2011

Expected Results

• Holistic maritime risk management– Integrating knowledge from previous projects

• OILECO, SAFGOF, METKU, EFFICIENSEA, CAFÉ, OILRISK

– Grounding risk– Security issues– Traffic flow internals– Environmental and economical effects– Optimization of risk management for efficiency

MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

November 4th, 2011

Expected Results

• Proactive policy decision assessment tool– Holistic impact evaluation of policy options– Improving prediction of future developments

• Web-based risk managment tool– Integrating security and safety– Combining probability and consequenses– Supporting accident response decisions

• Training• Planning

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