(Forest EU) Governance and Stability of Regulative Forest Policy Measures in Post-socialist Country:

Case Study Slovenia

Milan Šinko

University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical FacultyDept. of Forestry and Renewable Forest Resources

(Forest EU) Governance and Stability of Regulative Forest Policy Measures in Post-socialist Country:

Case Study Slovenia

Road map of presentation

• Introduction• Research question• Theoretical framework• Research design

– Data Analysis – Data Collection

• Preliminary results • Contribution to COST action

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Introduction

Forest policy design- Policy problems- Policy goals- Forest policy tools mix:

– Regulative tools prevail (e.g. obligatory forest management planning for all forests, obligatory tree marking for felling)

– Economic tools (less important - e.g. financing of silviculture approx. 1 €/ha/year on average)

– Informational tools.

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Introduction

Year Social-political context

Internationalcontext

Regulatory forest policy tools

1985

1990

Socialist

self-

management

Compulsory forest management planningObligatory marking trees for fellingPrescribed min and max felling of AAC

1991

1993

1998

2004

2013

Market system

&

Parliamentary democracy

Global and regional forest related activities(UNCED, MCPFE)

Prescribed possible max felling of AAC

Pre-accession negotiations

EU Membership

Compulsory forest management planningObligatory marking trees for felling,

Prescribed possible max felling of AAC

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Research question

• How the international forest governance affect the stability of regulative measures of forest policy in Slovenia (as a post-socialist country)?

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Policy transfer(lesson drawing)

Theoretical framework

Theories of policy

/change (policy difussion, policy transfer (‘policy learning’), ACF)

/stability (path dependency, policy regime).

Theory of policy “unlearning”?

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Global level

Slovenian Forest policy (policy measures)

Policy difussion:ConstructivismCoercionEconomic competitionLearning

Policy transfer(e.g. emulation, lesson drawing)

Theoretical framework

Regional level (EU, Forest Europe)

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Research design

• Case study approach (why/how question, historical and contemporal phenomenon, unability to influence important variables)

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Research design

Goals

Analysis and interpretation of historical

important phenomena

Theory improvement

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWOR

Policy theories

Governance (OMC)

Historical institutionalism

METHODSQualitative approach

Text analysis

Semi-structured problem-centred interviews

VALIDITYTriangulation,

comparative analysis of published case studies

RESEARCH QUESTION:

» How the international forest governance affect the stability of regulative measures of forest policy in Slovenia”

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Research design

• Specifics of Forest policy:– Long term impacts of present decisions

– Involves strong values (emotions)

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Research design

• Specifics of policy making during transition:

– Address urgent and key topics within the time constraints – Considerable uncertainty about the processes and objectives – Rapid change of authoritarian power structures with the new

structure of political actors,– Concentration in the elite and the short period of mobilization of

the masses, who quickly returned to private sphere– Introduction of negotiations in a decision making process.

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Research design

– Context of Slovenian forest policy making (GoFor 2004)

Socio-economics factorsPolitical factorsEcological factors

– Main political actors (GoFor 2004)

AssumptionsPreferencesPolicy position

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Research design

• Who learns?• Who is a teacher?• What it is learned?

Prima facia indicators

Evidence

Social learning Change in policy goals

Changes in dominant causal beliefs in the policy domain

Instrumental learning

Change in instruments

Increased understanding of policy instruments

Political learning

Change in political strategy

Awareness of relationship between political strategy and political feasibility within a given advocacy coalition

May 1992, Radaelli 2009

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Data analysis

• Qualitative analysis– Text analysis (Coding)

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Data collection

• Scientific papers, policy papers, political articles, press releases)

• Semi-structured problem-centred interviews with relevant policy stakeholders (experts, public officials, stakeholders)

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Preliminary results

• EU and Pan European forest policy processes influence political learning in Slovenia to a significant extent, but exercise a much smaller influence on social and instrumental learning.

• Political learning is associated with the stability of forest policy.

Prima facia indicators Evidence

Social learning Change in policy goals Changes in dominant causal beliefs in the policy domain

Instrumental learning

Change in instruments

Increased understanding of policy instruments

Political learning Change in political strategy

Awareness of relationship between political strategy and political feasibility of policy programmes

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

Contribution to COST Action

• Analysis of the EU and pan European forest focused policy processes (multilevel, multi-stakeholder governance) on choice of national forest policy measures

• Analysis of presence of OMC as governance by soft modes in Slovenia

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

• Thank you for your attention!

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

EU and Pan European level of forest governance

Governance by legislation

Governance by cooperation

Governance by soft modes:

- Open method of coordination (includes a notion of learning)

- …

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

EU and Pan European level of ofrest governance

Governance by legislation

Governance by cooperation

Governance by soft modes:

Open method of coordination (includes a notion of learning)

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

• 2; According to Yin (1994), a• case study approach is advisable when

“how” or “why” questions are posed, when• the investigator has little control over

events and when the research focus is on• contemporary phenomena within some

real-life context” (Yin 1994,13).

Milan Šinko - University of Ljubljana

• Lastnosti tranzicije v večini tranzicijskih držav so: obravnavanje nujnih in ključnih tematik v časovnih omejitvah, velika negotovost o procesih in ciljih, hitra sprememba avtoritarne strukture oblasti z novo strukturo političnih igralcev, osredotočenost v elite in kratko obdobje mobilizacije množic, ki so se hitro vrnile v zasebno sfero. Tranzicijo lahko razumemo tudi kot spremenjen način urejanja konfliktov v prehodu iz avtoritarnih režimov v večstrankarske sisteme. S tranzicijo se pojavlja koncept pogajanj v odločanju, kar je za Welsha (1994, 381) ključno v razumevanju tranzicijskih procesov, v katerih morajo pogajalci doseči dogovor, vendar želijo hkrati doseči izid, ki jim ustreza.