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2 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Migration to 4G: Challenges and Opportunities
Both LTE and WiMAX will offer a new suite of end user capabilities, and there is much hype around the evolution to 4G networks. Many rural carriers have spectrum assets - and want to take advantage of these new technologies to offer high speed mobile data. So, when will this be available in rural markets? This session will discuss the realities of 4G, including a technology overview, deployment status, business drivers, and market challenges.
- Amit A Patel, CTO - US Strategic Wireless Accounts, Alcatel-Lucent
AGENDA
� 4G “Hype” – the Buzz is EVERYWHERE!
� What is 4G ?
� 4G Business Drivers
� 4G Market and Technology Challenges
� 4G Deployment Status
� Rural Carrier Deployment Scenarios
http://s
hifthap
pens.wi
kispace
s.com/
3 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
4G Excitement – US Carriers Selecting LTE and WiMAX
How quickly will the US get to 100K LTE or WiMAX subscribers? 1M?
Verizon Opts for LTE Based Network Feb 18, 2009
Verizon said it would build its new superfast mobile broadband network on LTE (long term evolution) using technologies from Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent.
AT&T: HSPA+, Not LTE for NowApr 20, 2009
Before AT&T implements LTE, it plans another HSPA upgrade that will bring 3G capacity up to 7.2 Mb/s. Later this year, AT&T plans to start migrating its 3G networks to HSPA+, which would triple speeds.
Clearwire Puts Down LTEFeb 18, 2009
Clearwire continues to move full speed ahead with plans to introduce new mobile WiMAX markets, services and devices this year.
MetroPCS to Launch LTE in 2010Mar 4, 2009
MetroPCS plans to launch LTE technology in the second half of 2010.
Open Range to Launch WiMAXJan 9, 2009
Open Range to launch affordable high speed broadband internet and voice services to more than 6M citizens in 546 underserved and rural communities using WiMAX technology within five years.
Could Broadband Stimulus Package be a Coup for Wireless Broadband?Jan 20, 2009
Wireless included in Broadband Stimulus bill.
4 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
4G Market Forecast
•DELL'OROGROUP
Dell’Oro Group: Mobility ReportFive Year Forecast (Jan 2009)
� LTE+WiMAX: 99M subscribers by 2013
� LTE+WiMAX: 1.6% of total subs by 2013
� WCDMA: Continues to grow, 30%+ of total subs by 2013; 60%+ of total infrastructure revenue
� GSM: Stays steady, 60% of total subs in 2013
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mobile Subscriber Base (M)
GSM/GPRS/EDGE 2,699 3,263 3,563 3,663 3,713 3,728 3,723CDMA 410 486 505 500 487 462 430WCDMA 179 301 440 641 954 1,391 1,8943G LTE 0 1 7 19WiMAX 0 3 7 16 33 55 80PDC 18 9iDEN 25 20 17 14 11 8 5 Total 3,337 4,081 4,532 4,835 5,200 5,651 6,162
5 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
4G Excitement – Where Are We Today and Where Are We Going
My life in my handsetFixed broadband life
Within 5 years, millennials life style injected into their
adult lives & enterprises
The Millennialsgeneration born
and/or raised with Internet (11-25 years
old)
Rise of the millenialsGrowing # of mobiles
by 2011, roughly 4 billion mobile
phones !
Rich ecosystemNew applications
MediaPlayers
Portable GameConsoles
e-Car devices
Recordingdevices
Readers(e-Paper)Communicators
Booming demand for broadband data consumptionand rich devices for communication & entertainment
6 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
4G Excitement - How Much Data Is There ?
� consumes more bandwidth today than the entire Internet did in 2000
It took 200 years to fill the Library of Congress
� 57 million documents, 29 million books, 12 million photos
� Worldwide, an equal amount of digital info isgenerated almost 100 times per day
* University of California at Berkeley study** IDC – The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe
� 12 Exabytes = Sum of all human produced information (audio, video, text/books) through 1999 (of which 1.5 exabytes was created in 1999 alone) *
� Worldwide Information Tracker - http://www.emc.com/leadership/digital-universe/expanding-digital-universe.htm shows 467 Exabytes created andreplicated worldwide in 2008 **
� That’s 1.2 Exabytes a day (and growing) !!
1 quintillion bytes = 1,152,921,504,606,846,976 bytes (or 1B GB)One Exabyte =
7 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
4G Excitement - What’s New For 2009 ?
8 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
4G Excitement - A “Crazy Idea” For 201x ???
Navigation
Parking Cameras
Google Maps
Location Info
Heads Up Display
ONTO
Intelligent Windscreen
9 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
So, What is 4G?
Social Networking & Content
Sharing
Immediacy
Wireless/Wireline Convergence
Context Awareness &
Personalization
Bandwidth Hungry Applications
(Real-time, Interactive, High
Resolution)
Mobile Market Trends
Next Generation
Wireless
100 Mbps speed
Full mobility
Any network
Any terminal
All-IP
QoS control
High QoE
Next Generation
Wireless
100 Mbps speed
Full mobility
Any network
Any terminal
All-IP
QoS control
High QoE
Technology Requirements
� Higher data rates & spectral efficiency
� Improved OFDMA air-interface
� Reduced latency
� Flatter IP networks
� Seamless handover between various wireless technologies
� Support a range of cell deployment scenarios
10 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access (OFDM), IP, Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) advanced antennas are vital components of any next-generation technology.
What is 4G? A High Level Standards View
Long Term Evolution (LTE)HSDPA enh. / HSUPA
IP Transport
CDMA2000 EV-DO Rev.A
IP Transport
Ultra Mobile Broadband(UMB – aka EVDO Rev C)
More Mobile
More Broadband
More Broadband
All-IP MIMO
WiMAX 802.16e-2005
All-IPOFDM MIMO
All-IPOFDM MIMO
OFDMIP Transport WiMAX Enhanced
11 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
What Is 4G? OFDMA
Send large amount of data by using numerouslow rate channels in parallel – perfect forhigh peak data rates
Saved bandwidth
FDM transmission with narrowband overlapping orthogonal (non interfering) carriers – used with new low cost, highly accurate narrowband frequency filters
No interference
Guard Band
10 MbpsData
100 Kbps channel 1
100 Kbps channel 2100 Kbps channel n
100 Kbps channel 99100 Kbps channel 100
OFDMA – Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access
12 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
What is 4G? MIMO and Beam Forming
Concentrated beam to each usercan lead to 50% capacity gains. This can be done dynamicallybased on the users in the cell range.
Higher throughput with multiple antennas (different data on each carrier) and/or greater coverage with multiple antennas (same data on each carrier).
Intelligent Antennaand Beam Forming
Multiple AntennasMIMO = Multiple Input Multiple Output
3 miles
5 miles
w/o multipleantennas x Mbps
Withmultipleantennas1.5x Mbps
13 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
What Is 4G? All IP
Greater Backhaul BW Need� Greater data speeds to mobiles means greater backhaul needs
IP/Ethernet Based Backhaul, IP/MPLS Core, and an IP Based Voice/Data “Core”
� IP/MPLS is more efficient due to shared bandwidth vs dedicated bandwidth with ATM/FR. Multiple users with bursty data needs requires a shared solution.
� Lower Latency – faster “session” setup
� IMS in the core to support VoIP and blended multi-media applications
1st GenerationAMPS
(voice only)
2nd Generation
GSM/CDMA(voice and low
speed data)3rd Generation
xEVDO, HSPA,HSPA+, WiMAX
(voice and highspeed data)
4th Generation
LTE or WiMAX Enhanced
(voice and
broadband data)
1-2 T1s
2-4 T1s
4-8 T1s40-80 T1s
IP/Ethernet Transport
LTE or WiMAXCore Network(IP based for
Data, Voice andMultimedia Apps)
LTE or WiMAXCore Network(IP based for
Data, Voice andMultimedia Apps)
ATM/FR Transport
14 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
What is 4G? What Download Data Rates Can You Expect?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1.4 MHz/1.4MHz
3 MHz/3 MHz
5 MHz/5MHz
10 MHz/10 MHz
20 MHz/20 MHz
LTE Downlink Data Rates
25.812.86.63.91.6Likely
Average
150.873.436.722.18.8Theory(Peak)
LTE Advertises 100+ Mbps� Need a lot of contiguous spectrum to theoretically achieve 100+ Mbps (20 MHz up + 20 MHz down)
� Real world likely speeds will be much lower
Rural Carriers Typically Have 5 MHz up and 5 MHz down
� 100 Mbps is NOT possible with this much spectrum
� OFDMA (LTE/WiMAX) benefit is much less at lower bandwidths
2.96.66.04.23.73.63.753.0Likely
Average
58.036.736.728.821.014.49.37.2Theory(Peak)
3.1
61.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Mbps
EVDORev 0
EVDORev A
HSPA HSPA+ HSPA+2x2MIMO
LTE 2x2MIMO
LTE4x2MIMO
WiMAX2x2MIMO
WiMAX 4x2MIMO + BF
FDD 5 MHz Up / 5 MHz DownTDD 10 MHz
15 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
HLR
What is 4G? LTE and WiMAX Architectures
15 |
WiMAX
GGSNSGSN
RNC
GSM
UMTS
HSPASeparate Voice / IP Air Channels
Separate CS / PS Core Networks
WiMAXAccess
Controller
e
LTE
Common Packet (IP) Air Channel Common Enhanced (IP) Packet Core
PCRF
WiMAX BS
HSS
SubscriberMgmtPCRF
16 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Business Drivers for 4G in Rural Markets
� Become a Wireless Provider or Enhance Current Wireless Offer
� Broadband Data Demand
� Mobile Broadband
� Fixed Broadband (DSL/fiber alternative)
� Roaming Possibilities with Tier 1/2s (but when will it start?)
� Attract/Maintain Subscribers Before Tier 1/2s Come Into Town
� Public Safety Mobile Data Solutions
� Leverage Broadband Stimulus $s from American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
� Could turn marginal or negative business cases into positive ones
17 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009
Stimulus of ~$7B towards Broadband
� $4.35B for grants through the Department of Commerce’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) – pursuant to a new Broadband Technology Opportunities Program (BTOP)
� $2.5B for grants, loans, and loan guarantees for broadband infrastructure through the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Utilities Service (RUS)
� NTIA schedule: Three distinct grant periods
� April-June 2009, October-December 2009, April-June 2010.
� Funding may be roughly 1/3 of total funds in each round.
� RUS’s schedule: Three distinct grant periods
� First within 60-90 days; two more rounds each about 3-4 months later (similar to NTIA)
� Applicants can pursue funding from both RUS and NTIA, and for the same project, as long as both are not funding the same piece of equipment
� Strong indication from NTIA that projects must demonstrate that they would not be built absent funding
� Multiple small/medium awards vs fewer large awards
We’re All Waiting for the Stimulus Fund Application Process to be Rolled Out
18 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
4G Challenges: You Need Spectrum
LTE deployable in licensed bands
� FDD : 2.6 GHz, 2.3 GHz, 2.1 GHz,1900 MHz,1800 MHz,1700/2100 MHz, 1500 MHz, 900 MHz, 850 MHz, 700 MHz, 450 MHz…….
� TDD : 2.6 GHz, 2.3 GHz, 1.9/2.1 GHz………
North America
� 850 MHz (re-farm)
� 1.9 GHz (re-farm)Future
� AWS (1700/2100 MHz)
� 700 MHz 2009
� 900 MHz (re-farm)
� 1.8 GHz (re-farm)Future
Europe, Middle East, Africa
� 450 MHz (re-farm)
� 470-854 MHz (digital dividend)
Future
� 2.1 GHz
� 2.6 GHz2009
Asia Pacific
� 1.8 GHz (re-farm)Future
� 470-854 MHz (digital dividend)
Future
� 2.1 GHz (Japan)
� 2.3-2.4 GHz (China)2009+
� 1.5 GHz (Japan)
� 2.6 GHz (Japan)2009
Note: Represents estimated timeframe of when infrastructure willbecome available for LTE deployment – not necessarily devices
WiMAX deployable in licensed and un-licensed bands
� TDD : 2.5 GHz, 3.65 GHz, 700 MHz, 900 MHz, . . .
19 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
4G Challenges – You Need AFFORDABLE Devices
WiMAX Has Many Today (at 2.5/3.5) . . . LTE Has A Ways To Go
H1 H22009
H1 H22010
H1 H22011
H1 H22012
H1 H22013
H12014+
Field Trials Early LTE Launches LTE Adoption Increasing
LTE Ecosystem will be
established by mid 2011 or later
Vendor 5 1st Gen LTE
Vendor 5 2nd Gen LTE
Vendor 4 1st Gen LTE
Vendor 4 2nd Gen LTE
Vendor 3 1st Gen LTE
Vendor 3 2nd Gen LTE
Vendor 2 1st Gen LTEVendor 2 2nd Gen LTE
Vendor 1 1st Gen LTEVendor 1 2nd Gen LTE
Vendor 6 1st Gen LTE
Vendor 6 2nd Gen LTE
Wide Scale LTE Adoption
20 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
4G (LTE) Challenges – You Need Devices For Your Spectrum
3GPP Device Band Plan – Ones Applicable to US
� Band 4 – AWS Bands [Driven By AT&T and MetroPCS)
� Band 13 – 700 MHz Upper C [Driven By Verizon]
� Band 12 – 700 MHz Lower A/B/C [No One Driving]
� Band 17 – 700 MHz Lower B/C [Driven By AT&T]
Rural Carriers have 850, 1900, AWS and 700 Lower A/B/C
� Initial data cards from established vendors is focused on Band 13, followed by Band 4 and 17; “high end” voice/data handsets will follow 6-12 months after data cards
� No known devices for Band 12 yet (due to interference issues of lower A)
� When do these devices become affordable?
� Will there be exclusivity issues with LTE devices? There are today with WiMAX and GSM/UMTS devices.
UMTS Data Cards Are $60-$100 today (7.2 Mbps)LTE Data Cards Could Be $300+ in 2H2010
21 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
4G (LTE) Challenges: Spectrum Migration
Existing UMTS or CDMAAdd New Band
Capacity DrivenNew spectrum application
Hot spots / femto cells
Existing GSM and UMTSRefarm Existing Band
Capacity DrivenNew spectrum application
Hot spots / femto cells
850 1900
Existing GSM and UMTS
AWS
Refarm band to add LTE
850 1900 AWS
Greenfield DeploymentRefarm Carrier
Smooth LTE IntroductionDeploy UMTS or CDMA and
refarm to later add LTE
700
Refarm carrierto add LTE
AWSOR
850
Existing GSM and UMTS
1900 850
Refarm carriers to grow UMTS/add LTE
1900Existing GSM and UMTS
Refarm Existing Carriers
Coverage Driven
Free GSM carriers to grow UMTS and later add LTE
Current Future Scenario
UMTS CDMA LTELegend GSM
850 1900
Existing UMTS or CDMA
AWS700 850 1900
Add new band for LTE
OR
Deploy UMTSor CDMA
700 AWSOR
NothingAvailable
22 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
4G Challenges: Voice Solutions
WiMAX
� VoIP Solutions are available for Residential Gateway devices
� Home phone can plug into device, or SIP client on PC can be used
� Prioritize voice packets over data packets
� Mobile handsets for voice/data not readily available
LTE
� 3GPP standards for voice support are based on VoIP via IMS
� The standards are not yet finalized for E911 support
� For greenfield LTE deployments, voice will be initially challenging. VZW and other current wireless carriers are focused on data over LTE and voice via existing infrastructure (e.g. CDMA or GSM/UMTS)
� Alternate solutions like Voice over LTE Generic Access (VoLGA) being discussed
� And, for VoIP/IMS, Circuit Switch Fall Back (CSFB) is needed for handoff/hand-in scenarios between 3G/LTE
23 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
4G: US Activity
WiMAX
� Clearwire rolling out in “NFL” cities (2.5 GHz)
� Open Range Communications pursuing rural cities (2.486 GHz)
� Several rural carriers at 700 MHz (lower A/B/C) or 3.865 GHz (with “closed” solutions)
LTE
� Verizon city roll-out begins in 2H2010 (700 MHz upper C)
� MetroPCS roll-out begins in 2H2010 (AWS)
� Cox Cable considering roll-out in late 2010 or 2011 (AWS, 700 MHz lower A/B)
� AT&T to deploy HSPA+ first, LTE roll-out in 2012 (?) (700 MHz lower B/C)
� Many rural carriers are interested want to deploy ASAP (700 MHz lower A/B/C or AWS)
� State/Local entities are requesting Public Safety solutions for 2H2010 (700 MHz upper D)
24 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Potential Timeline for 700 MHz LTE ? (Patel View)
LTE Tech Trials
Initial LTE Deployments
First Customer
Trials
OFDM/MIMO Demos
Vendors are aggressively building solutions in anticipation of a quick roll-out.However, there is debate in the industry on when there will be sufficient end-userdemand for 4G data speeds, that can support the capital outlay necessary for LTE.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
LTE Mass Rollout
Interval from standards to massroll-out has taken 4-6 years for 2.5G and 3G solutions, thistimeline shows a 2.5 year intervalfor LTE (very aggressive)
1st LTEdevices (CI)(data cards)
1st LTE CommercialHandsets
StandardsComplete
AffordableData cards
AffordableHandsets
25 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Rural Carrier Deployment Scenario
WiMAX
� Deploy if you have 2.5 GHz spectrum (licensed spectrum)
� Consider for 3.865 GHz (registered spectrum)
� Consider for 700 MHz (licensed spectrum, but only ‘closed’ solutions available)
� Consider 900 MHz or other unlicensed spectrum
LTE
� If you have 700 MHz, monitor LTE data card availability, deploy in 2H2010 or
early 2011 ?? (affordable devices may not be available until much later)
� For 850/1900/AWS – start with UMTS (7.2 and 14.4 Mbps) and evolve to HSPA+
(45 Mbps), and then go to LTE when affordable handsets are available
26 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Greenfield Wireless Positioning Matrix – United States
WiMAX LTE CDMA/EV-D0 W-CDMA/HSPA
Standards IEEE802.16e 3GPP 3GPP2 3GPP
Market Perception 3.5G 3.9G or 4G 3G or 3.5G 3G or 3.5G
MobilityFixed, nomadic and
simple mobility
Full Mobility (to
350 km/h)
2G/3G HandOff
Mobile Mobile
Standards Complete 2005 2009
Initial Deployments 2007 2010
Mass Market 2009 2012 2000/2006
Spectrum 2.3, 2.5 GHz 700, AWS 850, 1900, AWS 850, 1900, AWS
Modulation S-OFDMADL: OFDMA
UL: SC-FDMACDMA CDMA
Duplex SchemeTDD, FDD (new
profile)FDD, TDD (2011) FDD FDD
MIMO SchemesDL: 2 X 2
UL: 1 X 2
DL: 2X2, 4X2
UL: 1X2, 2X2No Not Typical
Core/LatencyFlat
30ms
Very Flat
10msHeirarchical
Heirarchical
50msBit Rates
Mbps (5 Mhz)
DL:
UL:
DL: 32.0
UL: 14.7
DL: 9.3
UL: 5.4
DL: 10.1
UL: 6.0Voice Capacity
Erl (5 Mhz)160 80 50
Voice VoIP VoIP (2011) Circuit CircuitData Yes Yes Yes YesVideo Yes Yes Yes Yes
Voice Capacity for LTE/W-CDMA with AMR12.2, CDMA with EVRC
Bit Rates for LTE (2x2, 16QAM), HSPA (Rel 6, 1x2, 2008), EV-DO Rev A(1x2, 2006)
Capabilit
ies
TechnologyM
ark
et
Envir
onm
ent
Tech
nolo
gy B
lock
s