Migration and adaptive capacity

building

Dr. Robert McLemanAssociate Professor

Department of Geography

UNFCCC-speak

Mitigation:• Actions taken to

reduce GHG emissions

• Kyoto Protocol provides key mechanism until 2012

Adaptation:• Reducing vulnerability

to impacts of anthropogenic climate change

• Also helping economies adapt to implementation of UNFCCC/protocols

• A number of initiatives, accords have emerged

Adaptation and least developed countries (LDCs)

• UNFCCC signatories have established:

• LDC Fund for adaptation (administered by the Global Environment Facility (GEF))

• LDC Fund = approx $180M

UN LDCs

Adaptation and LDCs

• To access the LDC Fund, countries create NAPA (National Adaptation Programmes of Action)

• NAPA are to focus on urgent, immediate needs

• Action-oriented• Interest in having grassroots participation• There is an Expert group to assist LDCs in

preparing NAPA

LDCs and NAPA

• At present >40 NAPA at various stages of process

• Typical size of LDC grant = $1.5 - 4M

NAPA tend to focus on 1 of 3 areas:

• Agriculture/food security

• Water quantity/quality

• Coastal risks

Migration and NAPA

• Migration tends not to be explicit target of NAPA

• Preparing for distress migration is an important component of Maldives ‘safe island’ NAPA

• To what extent might migration affect success of other NAPA? Or be an outcome of NAPA?

Migration as adaptation

• Migration is one of a range of potential adaptive responses to climatic stress

• Is used in many parts of world (esp. LDCs)

• Is typically initiated at the household level

• Is not available to everyone

• Is not always used by all who might do so

• In worst cases, may be the only adaptation

McLeman, R. A., & Smit, B. (2006). Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change. Climatic Change, 76(1-2), 31-53.

Environmental migrants

More likely to migrate:

• Young, healthy, skilled, educated

• Middle class, working class, rural poor

• Family ties elsewhere

Less likely to migrate:

• Wealthier classes, landowners, owners of fixed assets

• Urban poor• Elderly, infirm, broken

families

Adaptation to climatic stress via migration

• Not a simple stimulus/response outcome

• Adaptive migration behaviour/patterns are influenced by social, economic, & cultural processes

• Actions taken to reduce vulnerability may have feedback effects on migration behaviour

• Migration has feedback effect on adaptive capacity of source & destination areas

Illustrative case study

• Country X is a West African LDC with large dryland areas

• Agriculture = largest sector of economy, workforce

• Current climatic risks: drought, soil erosion, desertification, flooding by extreme rain events; exacerbated in some regions by deforestation

• Climate change likely to exacerbate risks

Country X demographics

• Median age = 17

• Population growth rate = 3.3%

• 80% live in rural areas

• High rates of ongoing migration from dry to humid regions

• High rates of migration to 2nd-tier cities

• Periodic distress migration events (esp. drought)

Rural-urban migration

• For decades, country X has sought to moderate rural-urban migration by improving services/ amenities in rural areas

• Empirical results suggest improved rural infrastructure (roads, schools, clinics, electricity, piped water) increases rural-to-urban migration

• Strong social infrastructure (e.g. presence of markets, entertainment) is associated with lower rates of rural out-migration

Country X NAPA

• Priority is to increase food security

• Actions envisage building food reserves; developing new plans for land and crisis management; increasing agricultural productivity; increasing irrigation; creating pastoral reserves

Country X NAPA & migration

• If successful NAPA could reduce food emergencies, make government better prepared for them

• Emphasis on management, infrastructure & productivity does not address underlying demographic & migration challenges

• NAPA thin on addressing vulnerability of fast-growing urban population & changing face of food security

Implications

• Short-term adaptation needs vary among LDCs

• NAPA are intended to be urgent responses to obvious points of vulnerability. In crafting them ask:

• To what extent will NAPA activities affect adaptive migration?

• Where demographics/migration are underlying contributors to vulnerability, to what extent will NAPA address them?

Thanks! Merci!

Robert McLeman

Associate Professor Department of Geography

University of Ottawa

e-mail: rmcleman@uottawa.ca web: http://www.geography.uottawa.ca/prof/rmcleman.htm

blog: http://www.thisgeographicallife.blogspot.com

Available publicationsMcLeman, R., & Hunter, L. M. (In Press). Migration in the Context of Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: Insights from Analogues. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change.

McLeman, R. (2010). Impacts of population change on vulnerability and the capacity to adapt to climate change and variability: a typology based on lessons from a hard country. Population and Environment. (Springer OnlineFirst)

McLeman, R. (2008). Climate change migration, refugee protection and adaptive capacity-building. McGill International Journal of Sustainable Development Law and Policy, 4(1), 1-18.

McLeman, R., & Smit, B. (2006). Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change. Climatic Change, 76(1-2), 31-53.

McLeman, R., & Smit, B. (2006). Changement climatique, migrations et sécurité. Les Cahiers de la sécurité, 63(4), 95-120.