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Cushman & Wakefield Midyear Chicago Review
Citation preview
MIDYEAR 2012:Office – CBD/Suburban Divide
August 2nd 2012
Industrial – Going Strong
Chicago Economic, Office & Industrial Market OverviewMarket Overview
PresentersPresenters
Cushman & Wakefield Research
AGENDA
2012 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - KEN McCARTHY
2012 CHICAGO REGION ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - KEN McCARTHY
NATIONAL OFFICE MARKETS – MARIA SICOLA
NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL MARKETS – MARIA SICOLA
CHICAGO OFFICE MARKETS – SIMONE SCHUPPANCHICAGO OFFICE MARKETS SIMONE SCHUPPAN
CHICAGO INDUSTRIAL MARKET – AMANDA ORTIZ
Q & A
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 3
NATIONAL AND CHICAGO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchOVERVIEW
2012: The year of government deleveraging
■ Reasons for Optimism– Business, households, investors still cautious, but balance sheets continue to improve
– Labor market fundamentals getting healthier
– Tech, Tech, Tech
■ Reasons for Concern■ Reasons for Concern– Uncertainty about taxes, regulations, financial, political, oil prices, Europe/U.S.
– Election uncertainty
– Fiscal Cliff
– Business and Consumer confidence flagging
– Europe
■ Real Estate Impact– Cautious users
– Risk Averse– Risk Averse
– Tech impacted markets among the best
– Full recovery occurs in 2013
– Supply remains constrained in most markets
Chi O tl k
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 5
■ Chicago Outlook– Employment slow to recover
– Industrial fundamentals healthier
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchU.S. GDP GROWTH IN RECOVERIES
114 +14.0%
110
112
h=10
0 +9.4%
106
108
Trou
gh
+6.7%
100
102
104
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13Average Recovery (8 previous) Average Recovery (2 previous) 2009 Recovery
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 6
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchU.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
11.0%
9.0%
10.0%
rce
7.0%
8.0%
t o
f Lab
or
Fo
r
4 0%
5.0%
6.0%
Per
cent
3.0%
4.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 7
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchU.S. PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
Monthly Average-Preceding Three Months
250
212.3
183.7
225.7
150
200
250
123.0111.7
156.7 158.0147.7
75.050
100
150
s o
f Per
sons
24.7
-50
0
50
Tho
usan
d
-131.3
-150
-100
50
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 8
150
Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchU.S. WEEKLY UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
650,000
550,000
600,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
250,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
National Recessions Unemployment Claims Healthy Labor Market
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 9
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchEMPLOYMENT CHANGE SINCE FEBRUARY 2010
By Industry Sector
1,353 1,3241,450Total Increase: +3.8 mil.P i t S 4 4 il
900
669650
850
1,050
1,250
erso
ns
Private Sector: +4.4 mil.
500353
23677
50
250
450
650
hous
ands
of P
e
-106
528-550
-350
-150
50
Th
-528
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 10
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchJOBS RECOVERED SINCE TROUGH
As a Percent of Jobs Lost
160 0%
150.
9%
31.6
%
30.3
%
100 0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
1 13
91.2
%
87.4
%
71.6
%
70.5
%
1% % % % %
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
7
59.
55.6
54.1
%
51.3
%
50.5
%
46.2
%
44.0
%
41.8
%
39.9
%
38.9
%
34.6
%
31.9
%
29.1
%
27.3
%
25.1
%
19.3
%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 11
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchINDUSTRIAL DRIVERS
Manufacturers’ Shipments
475,000
425,000
375,000
ons
of D
olla
rs
325,000
Milli
o
275,000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 12Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Cushman & Wakefield Research Services
National Recessions Mfg Shipments
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchTRUCK TONNAGE INDEX
120
125
110
115
120
95
100
105
000=
100
85
90
95 2
75
80
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 13Source: American Trucking Association, Cushman & Wakefield Research Services
National Recessions Truck Tonnage
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchU.S. IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF GOODS
Excluding Bulk Items
190,000
170,000
130,000
150,000
ons
of D
olla
rs
110,000
Milli
o
70,000
90,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 14Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Cushman & Wakefield Research Services
National Recessions Exports Plus Imports
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchECONOMIC OVERVIEW & FORECAST
Payroll Employment Chicago versus U.S.
3,925137 000
138,000
3 825
3,875
135,000
136,000
137,000
3,775
3,825
133,000
134,000
3,675
3,725
130 000
131,000
132,000
3,575
3,625
128,000
129,000
130,000
US Chicago12/07-2/10 -6.3% -7.3%2/10-6/12 +3.0% +2.4%
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 15Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
U.S. (Left Scale) Chicago
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchEMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE
U.S. versus Chicago
Trade; Transport; UtilitiesFinancial
Construction4%
Information2%
Natural Resources1%U.S.
20%
Government17%
Manufacturing9%
Financial 6%
17%
Education and H l h S
Professional and
Leisure and Hospitality
11%Financial
7%
Construction3%
Information2%
Health Services16%
Business Services14%
Trade; Transport;
Utilities21%
Professional
Manufacturing9%
Professional and Business
Services18%
Leisure and Hospitality
10%
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 16
Education and Health Services
16%Government
14%
Chicago
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cushman & Wakefield Research
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW & FORECASTJobs Recovered Since February 2010As a Percent of Jobs LostJ
50.0%
44.0%
31 9%35 0%
40.0%
45.0%
31.9%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
0.0%
5.0%
U S Chicago
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 17
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Chicago
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchCHICAGO EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
Since February 2010 , by Industry Sector
75 Total Increase: +92,400P i t S +112 400
57
47
2735
45
55
65
Per
sons
Private Sector: +112,400
2721
168 8
5
15
25
35
Tho
usan
ds o
f P
0 -3-7
-25
-15
-5T
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 18Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchEMPLOYMENT FORECAST
Payroll Employment Forecast: Chicago
3,950
4,000
3,850
3,900Full recoveryQ4-15
3 700
3,750
3,800
3,600
3,650
3,700
3,500
3,550
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 19Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Analytics
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchMIDWEST MANUFACTURING INDEX
110
115
100
105
110
85
90
95
007=
100
75
80
85 2
65
70
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 20Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
National Recessions Midwest Manufacturing Index
U.S. OFFICE MARKET
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchU.S. OFFICE MARKET
Leasing activity totaled 29.8 msf in the CBDs; down 29% from 2q 2011
Suburban leasing was up marginally – by 3msf – to 61.7 msf
San Francisco and New York remain strong especially in comparison to other markets San Francisco and New York remain strong especially in comparison to other markets
Positive absorption in both CBD and suburban markets
Rental increases are submarket and asset driven
Oversupply is not the issue; the issue remains uncertainty in the global economy
Investment activity remains extremely weak with exception of core and trophy assets but real
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 22
Investment activity remains extremely weak with exception of core and trophy assets but real estate remains attractive with low Treasury bond yields and volatile stock market
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchNATIONAL OFFICE
CBD & Suburban Leasing Activity
200
140
160
180
et
80
100
120
Mill
ions
Squ
are
Fee
20
40
60
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2Q12
CBD Suburban
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 23Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchNATIONAL OFFICE
CBD & Suburban Overall Absorption
100
60
80
et
20
40
Mill
ions
Squ
are
Fee
-20
0
-40
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2Q12
CBD Suburban
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 24Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchNATIONAL OFFICE
Sublease Availabilities
90
60
70
80
et
30
40
50
Mill
ions
Squ
are
Fee
10
20
30
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2Q12
CBD Suburban
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 25Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield Research
NATIONAL OFFICEConstruction Completions vs. Overall Vacancy Rates
24.0%120
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
80
100
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
60
80
10.0%
12.0%
20
40
6.0%
8.0%
0
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 26
CBD Completions Suburban Completions CBD Vacancy Rate Suburban Vacancy
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
U.S. INDUSTRIAL MARKET
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchU.S. INDUSTRIAL MARKETS
Industrial Overall Leasing Activity
400
300
350
feet
2 2 2
316
354.5
322
326. 2
30
150
200
250
mill
ion
squa
re f
277.3
282.9
277.9
6.6 .2 .2 278.8 230.8
268.8
6.4
152.8
50
100
150
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD12
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 28
*Data as of Second Quarter 2012 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchU.S. INDUSTRIAL MARKETS
Overall Absorption
200
100
150
feet
14.2
75.9
146.0
111.9
94.4 -6.4
13.1
94.4
39.7
0
50
mill
ion
squa
re f
-48.9
-125.1
-100
-50
-150
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD12
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 29
*Data as of Second Quarter 2012 Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchU.S. INDUSTRIAL MARKETS
Construction Completions versus Overall Vacancy Rates
14.0%145 0
10.0%
12.0%
105 0
125.0
145.0
feet
6.0%
8.0%
65 0
85.0
105.0
mill
ion
squa
re f
vacancy
2.0%
4.0%
25 0
45.0
65.0
0.0%
2.0%
5.0
25.0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 YTD12
New Construction Overall Vacancy Rate
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 30
New Construction Overall Vacancy Rate
*Data as of Second Quarter 2012 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchU.S. INDUSTRIAL MARKETS
Warehouse Overall Vacancy Rates vs. Rental Rates
14.0%$7.00
$6.44
$6.50
$6.51
$6.45
$6.17
$5.89
10.0%
12.0%
$5.00
$6.00
$4.96
$4.84
$4.70
$4.62
$4.57
$4.61
$4.56
$4.57
$4.59
$4.58
$4.62
$4.64
6.0%
8.0%
$3.00
$4.00
$/ps
fvacancy
2.0%
4.0%
$1.00
$2.00
$
0.0%
2.0%
$0.00
$1.00
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
R t l R t O ll V R t
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 31
Rental Rates Overall Vacancy Rate
*Data as of Second Quarter 2012 Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchU.S. INDUSTRIAL MARKETS
Warehouse/Distribution Cycle
OR
AB
LE
Slow Growth Accelerating
LA
ND
LO
RD
FA
VO
ChicagoChicago, Houston, Inland Empire
Palm Beach, FL
LT
FA
VO
RA
BL
E
Ft. Lauderdale, Portland, New Jersey
PA I-81/I-78 Corridor, Orange County
Denver, Greater LAAtlanta, Dallas, Miami
Philadelphia, Silicon Valley, Seattle
Minneapolis, Orlando, Phoenix, Tampa
Sacramento
Central Valley CA, Suburban MD
Baltimore, Long Island NY,
Recovering
TE
NA
NT
Downturn
eapo s, O a do, oe , a paOakland, North Bay CA, Jacksonville
Boston, Northern VASan Diego
Rent growth acceleratingIdeal for owners of property
Rent at or near bottom of market cycleIdeal for tenants leasing or seeking to lease property
Rent still elevated but falling from top of market cycleFalling rents promise future opportunity for tenants
Rent growth slowingStill landlord favorable but growth is down from peak
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 32
*Data as of Second Quarter 2012 Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchNATIONAL INDUSTRIAL
Second Quarter 2012 Industrial Stats
MarketTotal Industrial
Inventory
Direct Vacancy
Rate
Overall Vacancy
Rate
Annual Direct Asking Rent
(NNN)
Under Construction
YTD 2012 Total Leasing Activity
YTD 2012 Total Overall Net Absorption
Greater Los Angeles 1,068,818,710 4.3% 4.6% $6.34 2,327,316 18,872,249 1,288,544
% % $Inland Empire 415,478,185 7.4% 7.6% $4.53 6,642,648 12,876,110 5,115,073
Orange County 275,686,012 5.5% 5.6% $7.94 26,000 6,324,863 865,070
LOS ANGELES BASIN* 1,745,270,256 5.2% 5.5% $6.12 8,995,964 37,723,218 7,253,356
CHICAGO 1,148,952,426 8.9% 9.4% $4.10 3,683,246 18,171,803 6,078,532
C t l NJ 327 076 264 8 0% 8 6% $5 28 864 000 6 635 679 2 789 636Central NJ 327,076,264 8.0% 8.6% $5.28 864,000 6,635,679 2,789,636
Northern NJ 284,938,891 9.3% 9.9% $6.08 567,639 3,460,048 (1,817,530)
Long Island NY 126,195,121 11.9% 12.5% $6.99 196,000 980,212 (853,249)
NEW YORK/NEW JERSEY 738,210,276 9.2% 9.8% $5.97 1,627,639 11,075,939 118,857
Miami 160,875,806 7.4% 7.4% $5.24 189,906 1,433,878 510,664, , , , , ,
Orlando 105,579,186 12.1% 12.4% $5.35 237,960 2,444,058 633,394
Jacksonville 100,687,468 11.0% 11.1% $3.80 0 609,026 (101,596)
FLORIDA* 659,073,817 8.5% 8.7% $5.31 1,307,935 8,793,529 3,067,552
ATLANTA 516,011,066 9.7% 9.8% $3.75 2,325,047 9,069,777 3,017,391
DALLAS/FORT WORTH 514,412,336 10.8% 11.2% $4.18 2,955,146 9,766,869 4,075,023
PA I-81/I-78 Distribution Corridor 215,270,850 8.6% 9.1% $3.79 6,044,673 4,250,909 1,997,175
Philadelphia, PA 277,464,546 6.0% 6.4% $4.94 1,348,000 3,229,224 1,903,090
PHILADELPHIA 492,735,396 7.1% 7.6% $4.33 7,392,673 7,480,133 3,900,265
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 33
HOUSTON 353,750,019 7.3% 7.6% $4.70 2,087,404 9,130,399 700,914
PHOENIX 263,298,403 11.7% 12.2% $6.96 237,992 5,233,062 2,528,122
Not all large markets are included on this list. LA Basin: two markets are included in both LA and Orange Counties - LA Basin total reflects adjusted figures; Florida total also includes Ft Lauderdale, Tampa, Palm Beach & Pinellas Counties and Lakeland Area.
CHICAGO OFFICE MARKET
Cushman & Wakefield Research
24CHICAGO CBDMarket Trends and Indicators
TOTAL MARKET SIZE = 218.7 MILLION SQUARE FEETCBD = 123.1 MILLION SQUARE FEET
12 M th
SUBURBAN = 95.6 MILLION SQUARE FEET• Overall vacancy dropped 0.7 percentage points to 14.2% year-over-year.
• New leasing activity slowed during the second quarter Year to date activity
CHICAGO YTD 201212 MonthForecast
Total Absorption 639,425 sf
second quarter. Year-to-date activity equaled approximately 2.4 msf, 41.5% less than the 4.1 msf reported at mid-year 2011.
• Investment activity totaled 8.2 msf, more th d bl th t d d t thi Leasing Activity 2.4 msf
Overall Vacancy Rate
14.2%
Overall Asking R
$31.79
than double the amount recorded at this time last year.
• Many renewals, which do not count towards leasing activity, were signed in the second
Rents$31.79
UnderConstruction
0 msf
quarter.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 35
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchCHICAGO CBD
Class A Direct Vacancy vs. Asking Rental Rates
12 0%
14.0%$40.00
$38.17
$38.45
$38.41
$38.28
$37.78
$38.05
$38.28 $37.3
$37.55
$38.00
$37.65
$37.63
$38.01
$38.02
10.0%
12.0%
$38.00
32
5
6.0%
8.0%
$34.00
$36.00
2 0%
4.0%
$32.00
0.0%
2.0%
$30.00
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 36
Class A Asking Rent Class A Vacancy Rate
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchCHICAGO CBD
New Leasing Activity
14
5.410
12
6.7
5 1 5 3 5 1
8.9
5.03.1 2.8
4.94.6 3.6
3.93 4
3.36
8
ons
Squa
re F
eet
8.73.6
4.2 4.3 4.25.1 5.3
3.63.0
2.4
5.1
2.4
3.4
2.2
2
4Mill
i
02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD
2012
1H 2H
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 37
12-year historical average for 1H
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchCHICAGO CBD
Renewal Activity
60 0%
70.0%8.0
5.0 5.1 5.35.1
50.0%
60.0%
6.0
ons
3.6
4.24.4 4.2
3.6
3.0
2 4
30.0%
40.0%
4.0
uare
Fee
t in
Mill
io
2.4 2.4
0 5 0.6 0.7
1.4
2.3
0.80.9 1.1
1.31.4 1.4
1.110.0%
20.0%2.0
Sq
0.5
0.0%0.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD 2012
L i A i i 1 H lf R l A i i 1 H lf 1 H lf l i i % f ll l i i i
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 38
Leasing Activity 1st Half Renewal Activity 1st Half 1st Half renewal activity as % of overall leasing activity
Cushman & Wakefield Research
26CHICAGO CBDYTD 2012 Leasing by Industry
Legal ServicesBuilding
g y y
Legal Services28%
Non-profits/ Associations
Government4%
gConstruction/General
Contractors2%
Other5%
5%
Business Services21%Education Health &
Social Services
Engineers/Architects/ Accountants
6%
Technology12%
FIRE11%
6%
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 39
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
NOTE: Includes renewals
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchCHICAGO CBD
Investment Activity
30
13.214.1
20
25
10
15
ons
Squa
re F
eet
12.9 14.2
3 1 0 2 4.08.21.6 0.3 4.0
6.25
10
Mill
i
3.1 0.20.9
4.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD 2012
1H 2H
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 40
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchSelected 4th Quarter Lease Comps 27CHICAGO CBD
Top Q1 & Q2 2012 Leasing and Sales Transactions
Type Address Submarket Tenant SF Industry
Renewal 321 North Clark River North Foley Lardner 169,000 Legal
330 N h W b hNew
330 North WabashAvenue
River North Latham & Watkins LLP 137,000 Legal
New 330 North Wabash River NorthSmithBucklinCorporation
111,081 Business Services
Renewal 175 West Jackson Blvd Central LoopU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
102,613 GovernmentExchange Commission
New 10 South LaSalle Central Loop Chicago Title & Trust 86,207 FIRE
AddressSales Price
Price PSF
Seller Buyer Buyer Type Comments(Millions)
PSFy y yp
20 North Wacker Dr $126 $149 Tishman Speyer Berkley Properties InstitutionalCivic Opera, 75% occupied, renovations planned
500 North Michigan Ave
$71 $222 Zeller Realty GroupThe MacerichCompany
U.S. InvestorNew owner plans to convert to retail space
350 North Orleans St$228 $190 Vornado Realty Trust Shorenstein Properties U.S. Investor
96% leased; Chicago Sun-Times major tenant
141 West Jackson Blvd$151 $120 CME Group
GlenStar Properties JV USAA Real Estate
Regional PrivateInvestor
Partial sale-leaseback by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Foreign Private
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 41
200 North LaSalle St $101 $161Onni Development Capital Corp
YounanForeign PrivateReal Estate Developer
Loan on building was past due
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research & Real Capital Analytics
Cushman & Wakefield Research
36CHICAGO SUBURBANMarket Trends and Indicators
TOTAL MARKET SIZE = 95.6 MILLION SQUARE FEET
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
YTD 2012
12 MonthForecast
Total Absorption (355,075) sf
• Year-to-date leasing activity is at 2.5 msf, 10.7% higher than the 2.3 msf recorded at mid-year 2011.
p ( , )
Leasing Activity 2,539,175 sf
Overall Vacancy Rate
22.5%
• Mid-year investment sale activity increased to 1.7 msf in 2012 from 1.2 msf in 2011.
• Direct weighted average asking rents d $21 74 f b h d f Q2 Overall Asking
Rents$21.56
UnderConstruction
0 msf
stood at $21.74 psf by the end of Q2 2012, an increase of 1% from $21.53.Q2 2011.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 42
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchCHICAGO SUBURBAN
Class A Direct Vacancy vs. Rental Rates
20.5%
$28 00
$30.00
$2
$26.67 $2 $2
20.0%
$26.00
$28.00
25.50
25.52
25.32
$25.00
$24.90
$24.94
$24.76
$24.53
$24.41
$24.37
$24.28
$24.45
$24.19
19.0%
19.5%
$22.00
$24.00
18.5%
$18 00
$20.00
18.0%$16.00
$18.00
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 43
Class A Asking Rent Class A Vacancy Rate
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchCHICAGO SUBURAN
New Leasing Activity
12
4 98
10
4.94 4
4.9
8.9
2.9
4.6
3.1
3.7
3.53.1
2 6 2.64
6
ons
Squa
re F
eet
8.7 2.5
3.7 3.8 3.5
4.4
3.6 3.3
1.9
2.8 2.92.5
1.71.9
2.6
2
4
Mill
i
02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD
2012
1H 2H
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 44
12-year historical average for 1H
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchCHICAGO SUBURBAN
Renewal Activity
60 0%
70.0%6.0
3.84.1
3.7 3.83.5
4.4
3.6
50.0%
60.0%
4.0
ons
3.3
1 9
2.82.9
2.530.0%
40.0%
uare
Fee
t in
Mill
io
1.9
0.6
1.0
0.6
1.1
0.5
1.1 1.1 1.1
0.410.0%
20.0%2.0Sq
0.2 0.2 0.20.4
0.0%0.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD 2012
L i A i i 1 H lf R l A i i 1 H lf 1 H lf l i i % f ll l i i i
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 45
Leasing Activity 1st Half Renewal Activity 1st Half 1st Half renewal activity as % of overall leasing activity
Cushman & Wakefield Research
38SUBURBAN CHICAGO2012 YTD Leasing by Industry
Manufacturing/Industrial29%
Printing, Publishing and
Building Construction/General
Contractors29%
Technology4%
Communications3%
Related2%
1%
Legal Services
4%
4%
Non-
Other4%
Education Health & Social Services
18%FIRE17%
Business Services13%
profits/Associations5%
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 46
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
NOTE: Includes renewals
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchSelected 4th Quarter Lease Comps 33CHICAGO SUBURBAN
Top Q1 & Q2 2012 Leasing and Sales Transactions
Type Address Submarket Tenant SF Industry
New3800 Golf Rd,
Atrium Corporate Center Rolling Meadows
Northwest Capital One 158,582 FIRERolling Meadows
New75 North Fairway
Vernon HillsCentral North/Tri-State Carefusion 150,000
Manufacturing/Industrial(medical)
New3 Parkway North
DeerfieldCentral North/Tri-State
Mondelez International(Kraft)
105,000Manufacturing/Industrial
(food)
5550 Prairie Stone Parkway American Continental Renewal
5550 Prairie Stone ParkwayHoffman Estates.
NorthwestAmerican Continental
University74,000 Education
NewColumbia Centre III
RosemontO’Hare World Kitchen 55,000
Manufacturing/Industrial(kitchenware)
Sales Address Price
(Millions)Price PSF Seller Buyer Type Comments
4 Parkway North,Deerfield
$40.9 $238 John Buck Company Wells Core Office REITInstitutional
Investor
100% occupied; CF Industries, Lundbeck
main tenants
C l E N l Continental ExecutivePark, Vernon Hills
$27.5 $123 PacTrust PWA Real EstateNational private
investor
Caremark Towers INorthbrook
$21 $123 Fulcrum Asset ServicesWhite Oak Realty Partners
JV Syndicated EquitiesRegional private
investor
67% leased; building
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 47
6400 Shafer Ct,Rosemont
$10.8 $66 Ruben YbaraCrossroads Development
PartnersRegional private
investor
67% leased; building traded for 3rd time in
5 years
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research & Real Capital Analytics
CHICAGO INDUSTRIAL MARKET
Cushman & Wakefield Research
48CHICAGO INDUSTRIALMarket Trends and Indicators
TOTAL MARKET SIZE = 1 1 BILLION SQUARE FEET
CHICAGOYTD 2012
12 MonthForecast
TOTAL MARKET SIZE = 1.1 BILLION SQUARE FEET
• Leasing activity gaining momentum
• Large leasing transactions have fueled recovery in the region
Total Absorption 6.1 msf
Leasing Activity 18.2 msf
Overall Vacancy 9 4%
recovery in the region
• Asking rental rates have yet to increase significantly, still favorable climate for tenants y
Rate9.4%
Overall Asking Rents $4.05
Under Construction 3.7 msf
• New construction is on the rise and some speculative projects have begun in the Chicago market
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 49
Cushman & Wakefield Research
48CHICAGO INDUSTRIALMarket Trends and Indicators
0 00
0.10
0.20
Chicago MSA Employment (% Change)
• Business sectors impacting industrial
-0 50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00 • Business sectors impacting industrial activity added jobs in recent months
• Local economy slowly improving
Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI)-0.70
-0.60
-0.50
Manufacturing Output Indexes % Change from1 month ago 3 months ago 1 year ago
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 50
Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI)
US Industrial Production-Manufacturing (IPMFG)
1.1 2.1 11.0
0.7 0.8 5.6
Cushman & Wakefield Research
49CHICAGO INDUSTRIALOverall Vacancy Rates vs. Asking Rents
12.0%$4.50
$4.45 $4.36
$4.33 $4.2 $
11.0%
11.5%
$4.25
26 $4.19 $4.09
$4.04
$4.04
$4.04
$4.06 $3.98
$4.01
$4.01
$4.05
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
$4.00
$ /s
f/yr
8 0%
8.5%
9.0%
$3 50
$3.75
8.0%$3.50Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212
Asking Rent Vacancy Rate
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 51
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchCHICAGO INDUSTRIAL
Mid-Year Leasing and Renewal Activity
70.0%25.0
15.4
19.4
15.2
18.517.6
16.5
18.250.0%
60.0%
20.0
14.1 13.9
11.7 11.5
13.9
30.0%
40.0%
10.0
15.0
2.1 1 7
3.7 3.3
4.9
3.2 2.1
5.4 4.2
7.0
5.1
2.5 10.0%
20.0%
5.0
2.1 1.7 2.1
0.0%0.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD 2012
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 52
Leasing Activity 1st Half Renewal Activity 1st Half 1st Half renewal activity as % of overall leasing activity
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchCHICAGO INDUSTRIAL
2012 Leasing by Industry
M fManufacturing27%
Business Services7%
Construction1%
Communications0%
Other10%
Wholesale Trade25%
Retail Trade11%
NOTE: Includes renewals
Transportation/Public Utilities
19%
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 53
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchSelected 4th Quarter Lease Comps 33CHICAGO INDUSTRIAL
Top Q2 12 Leasing and Sales Transactions
Type Address Submarket Tenant SF Industry
New Home Depot BTS Interstate 80 Home Depot 1 600 000 Retail TradeNew Home Depot BTS Interstate 80 Home Depot 1,600,000 Retail Trade
New Tinley Park Corporate Center Interstate 80 M. Block & Sons 915,643 Wholesale Trade
New Heartland Corporate Center Interstate 80 Wilton Industries 492,869 Wholesale Trade
New Joliet Distribution Center Interstate 80 Ozburn-Hessey Logistics 476,965 Transportation
Renewal Butterfield Center Southern Fox Valley Nippon Express USA 410,000 Transportation
Sales PriceAddress SF
Sales Price(Millions
Price PSF Seller Buyer Buyer Type Comments
Portfolio Sale,6 Buildings
1,789,819 $87.0 $48.61Benderson
Development Company
CenterPointProperties
Investor Fully leased
2400 Dralle Road 1 350 000 $64 3 $47 59 USAA Real EstateCBRE Global
Investor Fully leased2400 Dralle Road 1,350,000 $64.3 $47.59 USAA Real EstateInvestors
Investor Fully leased
1860 W Jefferson Ave.
828,748 $46.4 $55.99 RREEF Duke Realty Investor Fully leased
901 Carlow Drive 747,152 $34.6 $46.26 TIAA-CREF Heitman InvestorHome Depot to vacate at end of
2013
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 54
2013702 Commerce Center Drive
696,540 $25.1 $36.04 USAA Real Estate Koch Industries Investor Fully leased
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research & Real Capital Analytics
Cushman & Wakefield ResearchCHICAGO
Construction Completions vs. Overall Vacancy Rates
12.0%25,000
(000s sf) Vacancy Rate
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
20,000
5 0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
10 000
15,000
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
5,000
10,000
0.0%
1.0%
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD12
New Construction Overall Vacancy Rate
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 55
New Construction Overall Vacancy Rate
Cushman & Wakefield Research
54LOOKING FORWARDChicago Area
OFFICE CBD
• Vacancy down slightly
• Overall new leasing activity expected to remain slow for the remainder of the election year (some g y p y (exceptions
• Investment activity – additional buildings trading in the second half
• Asking rates overall flat to slight increase; landlords have leverage depending on specific building/space
• One or two high-rises to break ground late 2012/early 2013 • One or two high-rises to break ground late 2012/early 2013
OFFICE Suburban
• Vacancy improving slightly as tenants move to new locations (however muted by musical chairs and consolidations)consolidations)
• Leasing activity slow for rest of year
• Investment activity slow with still unstable market fundamentals
INDUSTRIAL
• Vacancy to improve further
• Leasing activity solid; expected to remain stable through year-end
• Speculative construction picking up specifically in the I-80 Corridor
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 56
p p g p p y
Q & A
MARIA SICOLA415-773-3542
KEN McCARTHY212-698-2502
One Maritime Plaza, Suite 900San Francisco, CA [email protected]
SIMONE SCHUPPAN
1290 Avenue of the AmericasNew York, NY [email protected]
AMANDA ORTIZSIMONE SCHUPPAN312-470-1891200 South Wacker, Suite 2800Chicago, IL [email protected]
AMANDA ORTIZ847-518-32356133 North River Road, Rosemont, IL [email protected]
www.cushmanwakefield.com