Global thoughts on Central Asia/Caucasus/ Gulf/Syria and Lebanon

And we’ll not forget Egypt and global situation in the Arabic world (Tunisia, Libya)

WHAT DOES EACH COUNTRY WANT?

Let’s have a look on the top priorities of the majors player in these regions :

The US

1/ To warrant the supplying of its troops in AFGHANISTAN

2/ To warrant stability in the GULF

3/ To provoke the failing of the Iranian regim/ nuclear and energy game

ISRAEL

1/ To provoke the failing of the Iranian regim to save the Israeli Strategical doctrine of nuclear exclusivity

2/ To keep the division inside the Palestinian between Cisjordania and Gaza/ To put a check on Palestinian state recognition process

RUSSIA

1/ To make the US dependant on Russian green light in Central Asia and specially Afghanistan access

2/ To maintain pro-Russia states in Central Asia

3/ To contain the Turkish/Iranian/Chinese influence in Central Asia

4/ To contain fundamentalism in Caucasus and Central Asia

5/ To stop drug traffic coming from Afghanistan and crossing Tajikistan

SAUDI ARABIA

1/ To check the Iranian influence in the Gulf = the Shias in the Middle East. That means to further a Muslim Brothers wall from Lebanon to Syria and Iraq

2/ To contain the “Arabic spring” (demand for democracy and reforms for the monarchies) in all the CGC (Council of Gulf Cooperation)

IRAN

1/ To prevent a US attack to further unstability all around Iran thanks to Iranian proxies (Hezbollah, the Mahdi army in Iraq, all Shiites movements in Bahrain, Koweit, Saudi Arabia) : Afghanistan, Iraq, in the CGC countries, Lebanon and also Tajikistan because of the NDN= Northern Distribution Network a web of land and air routes used for the transport of non lethal goods to US and NATO forces in Afghanistan.

CHINA

1/ To warrant its access to Central Asia and the Gulf (for energy)

2/ To check a democratization process in Central Asia and the Gulf, but mainly in Central Asia.

3/ To keep the stability of the 3 Central Asian states that border the Chinese Xinjiang : Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan

4/ To protect Xinjiang from fundamentalism infiltration.

All the internal situation of the other players, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, EAU, Qatar, the Caucasus independent countries (Armenia and Azerbaijan), the Central Asian countries (the “stan”) are largely influenced by the strategies and acts of these majors (global or regional) players

None of the major player want a war because except the US, none has the capacity to impose silence by itself on the opponent

Only the US may decide that, in a global perspective (to keep its number one economical position), a regional war is the only solution. But in this case, that would mean they didn’t find the economical solution to keep the leadership.

So we know the top priorities.

But now we have to combine these top priorities with the main local features, mainly 3 things points in Central Asia and Arabic world :

1/ the wear (usure) of these autocratic regims in central Asia and Arabic Gulf which all face the democratic dynamics, with various degrees. And the point is who benefits from this democratic dynamics? Sometimes the revolt can benefit to the Western world (Libya), sometimes to Iran (Bahrain, Yemen…) and not to Saudi Arabia (the major US ally in the area).

2/ the conflicts of identities inside most of the Central Asia, Caucasus and Arabic countries. I mean ethnical conflits like between Uzbeks and Kyrgyz or Tajiks and Uzbeks, or Shias and Sunnis

3/ the conflict between an Islamic fundamentalism trend and a secular and autocratic power inherited from sovietic (the cases of “stan” countries) of Arabic nationalist ideology (Syria).

The exercice must be done within one hour. So my idea is to propose a scenario of what could happen in the close future in Central Asia, Caucasus and Middle East which may permit at the same time to explain what’s happening now and what may happen tomorrow.

1. SYRIAN REGIM WILL BREAK AFTER LIBYA WITH CONSEQUENCES FOR LEBANON

Syrian rising is not being conducted by a single group, nor it is guided by a unified ideology.

3 groups

- The main trend is Muslim Brotherhood back by Saudi Arabia and linked with Egyptian Muslim Brothers

- Ethnic and sectarian elements to the demonstrations : Kurds

- Pro-democracy elements, like in Tunisia, Egypt and the Gulf monarchies, but there are not the main trends and they will not be the winners. Be careful, even Alawite strongholds in the coastal city of Latakia have witnessed violent demonstrations.

The Assad-Alawite-Baathist regim will fail, I think it’s a questions of 2 or 3 months.

Why ?

The main question in the Middle East now, the most important, is the war between Ryad and Tehran

A Shiite Iraq is a bad news for Saudi Arabia. Ryad wants a large alliance with the Sunnis from Lebanon (Hariri), the Sunnis of Syria which are the majority, the Arabs Sunnis of Iraq (only 20%), and the Council of Gulf Cooperation.

The consequences of such a failure is a big question.

Chaos in Syria and ethnical clash : Kurds, Alawites, Sunnis?

Chaos then in Lebanon because now we clearly have two camps : the March 8 coalition of Hezbollah backed by Iran and the 14 Coalition of Saad al-Hariri backed by Saudi Arabia but also by the US and France.

Also watch on the fact the Middle-East and also Maghreb you have this important alliance between France and Qatar// the US with Saudis

The main concern is the STABILITY OF SYRIA AND LEBANON in a short term

And my idea, for all this scenario is that the majors players will not clash together in a direct confrontation (Iran and Saudi Arabia) but they will delegate the war to their proxies and that can happen in Syria and Lebanon after the failure of the Damascus power

Please be sure that in Syrian rising, fundamentalism is essential

Here is an extract of an analysis coming from Foreign Policy an American review that cannot be suspected of sympathy with Assad regim.

« The latest April 10 ambush against Syria army patrol in the coastal town of Banias is proof that a Jihad-like approach is a force behind the movement demanding reforms. Despite atrocities the regimes in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and Bahrain perpetrated against freedom demonstrators, there was no significant act of violence against national armies in the countries. More importantly, to be able to conduct such a successful ambush killing nearly 10 troops, one needs to be armed, organized and well-trained. Indeed, this scenario does not resemble anything we are witnessing in the above cases.”

What about Israel?

Israel main concern about nuclear question is Iran, but Israel main concern about the Palestinian is the rising of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Syria and the fact they are backed by the Gulf countries and specially by Saudi Arabia.

So in any case, they are isolated. The only solution will be to further ethnical divisions in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and the balance between Shiites and Sunnis.

Something important : they are playing a rising Kurdish pole : watch the autonomy of Kurds in Iraq (a stronghold of Israeli intelligence), and they can support a Kurdish autonomy in the new Syria and then it will contribute to wake up the Iranian Kurds.

2/ STABILITY WILL BE PRESERVED IN CGC COUNTRIES IN ANYCASE

SO in this case what will happen in the Arabic Gulf countries?

What’s the situation not only for Bahrain but for Kuwait, the United Arabic Emirates (UAE), Qatar?

With different degrees we find :

- The Shias against the Sunnis

- A rising salafist trend with Sunnis

- Clash between the old Sunni elite and the mass of foreigners

- A rising demand of democracy from young educated and western-minded people

The clash between Iran and Saoudi Arabia broke into Bahrain because we have 70 pc of Shias in the population.

But as you could see, the question is closed. The Peninsula Shield (defense agreement between the CGC countries) has intervened brutally and efficiently to break the Shiite revolt.

Nobody (neither the US nor France) wants any revolution in the CGC countries. That’s why even if you have professor

In Kuwait you have 10pc Shias, in Saudi Arabia 5pc they live in the strategic oil areas.

In the Emirates arrests over the last week of several democracy activists even a professor from the French Sorbonne in Abu Dhabi.

Remember that Kuwait and Bahrain are the only countries of the CGC to dispose of an elected Parliament and there are the two countries which have the most important protests!

MY FORECAST is nothing serious will happen except riots of Shias and protests of Bidoun (stateless persons)

3/ STABILITY OF MOST IMPORTANT COUNTRIES IN CENTRAL ASIA KAZAKHSTAN AND TURKMENISTAN (energy) AND UZBEKISTAN (demography) WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THE ARAB SPRING

First I’d like to underline 3 three general differences between the FSU countries and Egypt or other Arabic revolutions, in terms of unrest and instability

1/ Whereas Egypt’s ruling regime is rooted in the military (the security apparatus built for dealing with external threats) the FSU’s authoritarian governments are dominated by the post-Soviet style intelligence and internal security apparatus.

2/ Also most regimes in the FSU that are at risk of social and political instability are not Western allies. One reason the Egyptian military did not intervene forcefully against the protesters, in addition to maintaining its reputation among the Egyptian people and avoiding complete backlash from society, was to preserve the regime’s legitimacy in the eyes of the West.

3/ Finally and most important, the FSU countries are more influenced by Western trends and political developments, such as the wave of color revolutions in the early to mid-2000s that swept through Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan than by Middle Eastern trends.

The period of color revolutions would have been the opportune time for such a political uprising to sweep across the region, but the movement fell short of reaching this goal. Indeed, the pro-Western revolutions in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan have since been reversed, and this movement is not likely to regain momentum in the foreseeable future.

So my forecast is that the 3 main important countries in Central Asia will remain stable

Both Kazakhstan and Uzkebistan have aging leaders – Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev is 70, and Uzbek President Islam Karimov is 73 – who have no clear succession plan in place.

HOWEVER NEITHER COUNTRY is at serious risk of popular uprisings, as there are no significant opposition groups in these countries and these leaders are genuinely popular among a large segment of their electorates.

There could be some serious infighting when either leader steps down or passes away –though this was not seen in Turkmenistan’s leadership uprisings in these states is therefore extremely unlikely.

Uzbekistan

Regim much more brutal than it was in Egypt. Compare the event on Tahrir Square in Cairo and on Babur Square on May 13, 2005 in Andijan in the Ferghana Valley. Karimov ordered troops to fire on unarmed demonstrators, including men, women and children, and we had more than 500 people killed.

But

1/ Strategical role (with Kyrgyzstan) in US effort in Afghanistan. Key role in the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) a web of land and air routes for the transport to non lethal goods to US and NATO

2/ Threat of fundamentalism

You may know that these last weeks, Uzbek power is repressing firmly all Islamic trends. In March they closed 40 religious bookstores in the capital. Bearded men and women with head scarf are under pressure

The fact is that there is a real fundamentalist threat but now don’t know what is the cause and the effect between the more and more repressive power and the fundamentalist trend.

Uzbekistan can repress without any pb because partner of CHINA

April 22, 2011 : Uzbekistan has announced the large opening of its mining resources and economy to China because the Westerners always criticize the respect of Human rights.

Turkmenistan

Same situation. The US don’t have interest to destabilize

The West has wished to make a bargain with Berdymukhamedov for the sake of energy and regional security : Turkmenistan provides electricity to Afghanistan and permits NATO to fly non-lethal freight across its territory.

Very important to know : the Pentagon intends to ship 75pc of all non-military cargo destined for Afghanistan via the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) by the end of 2011

Explain also Manas (Kyrgyzstan)

Project : a road from the Baltic port of Riga (Latvia) to Serhetabat-Turgundi on the Turkmen-Afghan border. More secure than using Tajikistan. The US is pushing hard for this. But it remains uncertain wether neutral Turkmenistan will go along with this plan.

What I want to stress is the point that from now, Russia has the leadership on the US in Central Asia : the US needs Russia for Afghanistan : in the new Kyrgystan, the airbase of Manas is used only with the greenlight of Moscow. They need the greenlight in Tajikistan, and they need the greenlight from Uzbekistan. SO hard to pressure for Human rights. I don’t believe that.

Kazakhstan

Watch President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s landslide re-election victory on April 3, 2011 : he garnered 95,5pc of votes.

So a true stability that has been greeted by the head of the European stability because on April 4 She said “Greetings for the people of Kazakhstan that has exerted its democratical rights in this presidential election”. And she added (it’s not a joke) “the poll was a technical success”.

Nevertheless, things are moving and I can give you details during the question time.

The key problems in terms of instability are not the most important (strategic position, energy) countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan)

4/ FOUR STATES IN THE CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA (Tajikistan, Kyrgystan, Armenia and Azerbaijan) FACE MORE PRESSURE AND MORE RISK

In addition to the opposition forces that exist in all FSU countries, these countries have the added strains of poor economic conditions, and, except for Armenia, banned or suppressed Islamist groups and religious movements

Tajikistan

the country to watch most carefully : terrorism, religious movements and political unrest

Violence has increased particularly in the Rasht valley, since a high-profile prison break in August 2010.

With questions I can develop precisely the risk but the main thing is that an strong and radical islamist opposition is rising.

Since January many mosques have been closed, and Islamic militants arrested.

Here you have the problem of IRANIAN influence. That’s why concerns are possible. In a rising confrontation between the US and IRAN, the Iranian will try to cut the NDN in Tajikistan (that’s why the US will need of Turkmenistan cooperation).

On the other hand, Russia needs to contain the Iranian (islamist) influence in Tajikistan because they try to contain the flow of narcotics from Afghanistan.

Also the rising influence of China. More than 80 000 Chinese workers in Tajikistan (tensions with the national population) and on January 12, 2011, Tajikistan ceded 1142 square kilometers of remote mountainous lands to China, that means 1pc of its territory. 1500 Chinese farmers will begin to cultivate rice there. Critics say there are gold deposits and uranium.

Kyrgystan

Here we have the same phenomenon as in the Arabic world : the region’s more moderate, more open regimes have been more vulnerable to popular uprisings. So, in Kyrgystan with relatively well-developed civil society and press-freedoms, two mildly autocratic governments collapsed in less than 5 year.

Kyrgystan is the off man in Central Asia. The overthrow of Kurmanbek Bakiyev last April 2010 was the second revolt in five years.

The country is experimenting with the region’s first parliamentary democracy. Nobody has interest in this region to a democratic model.

Element of stability is the strong return of Russia : April 14, Kyrgystan joined Russian backed Customs Union (despite his belonging to the World Trade Organization)

RUSSIA CHINA AND THE US NEED STABILITY

ONLY IRAN CAN TRY TO PROVOKE INSTABILITY

Ok there are strong tensions between Central Asian states and also inside the States between ethnical communities

Interstates tensions

Tajikistan and Uzbekistan about WATER

Tajikistan the poorest of the five Central Asia republics possesses over 40pc of Central Asia water. However, what the republic has in water, it lacks in energy.

In recents years, Uzbekistan has continuously complained about Tajik plans to build a massive hydropower plant upstream at Rogun

Uzbekistan wants to cut off Tajikistan’s gas supplies. But the upstream country relies on Uzbekistan for up to 95 pc of its gas supplies

Role of Russia

Example of tensions between communities in the Ferghana Valley BECAUSE OF THE LAND SCARCITY

Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in Kyrgyzstan : claiming of the Kyrgyz majority against the Uzbek landowners : killed more than 400 Kyrgyz and Uzbeks, locals worry the conflicts between tadjik and Kyrgyz communities may spiral out of control.

But with strong states and the support of Russia and the silence of Europe and the US (they need stability), I think these old ethnical problem will stay under control still for a long time.

Last problem is ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN

Also and old problem.

We have two problems in fact : Armenia and Azerbaijan and Iran/Azerbaijan

The Armenian and Azerbaijan balance which has been endangered these last months by rising tensions between the two countries

Armenian president Serzh Sarkisian announced on April 1 of this year that he would personally be on the first civilian flight from Armenia into the newly rebuilt airport in Nagorno-Karabakh when it opens in May (this month)

Azerbaijan has earlier announced that it would shoot down any plane over its occupied territory.

Though hostilities have continued, there are two reasons the conflict has remained frozen. First, beginning in the mid-1990s, neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan had the resources to continue fighting. Armenia’s economy is non-existent for the most part. Without the financial means, it would be impossible for Armenia to launch a full-scale war.

At the same time, Azerbaijan’s military has been too weak, thus far, to assert control over the occupied lands

After nearly two decades, the issue is beginning to thaw (“dégeler”) again as the balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan is beginning to change. Baku has grown exponentially stronger in the past six years. Rich with energy-wealth, Azerbaijan has started creating a modern and competent military and the largest out of the Caucasus countries. Moreover, Azerbaijan’s close ally, Turkey has renewed its commitment to defend Azerbaijan in any conflict with Armenia, recently signing a strategic cooperation agreement to this end.

On the other hand, Armenia has been reduced to a satellite of Russia for the most part, with little independent foreign policy, politics or economy.

The involment of Turkey and Russia is the main cause of deterrence that is holding the two sides back.

As we know with the North Korea or the Taiwan crisis, this kind of problem that imply important regional players like Turkey of global player like Russia and the US, can stay under control

It’s like Goldman Sachs too big to fail… so too dangerous to explode? Yes but this possibility exists like the failure of Lehman Brothers

More interesting is the relation between Iran and Azerbaijan

Just as in the Persian Gulf, Iran has an interest in exploiting any unrest or instability in Azerbaijan to increase its influence in the country.

The increasing tempo of recent protests in Azerbaijan have given Iran an opportunity to use its substantial levers in the country (including ties to Azerbaijani opposition parties and influence over the country’s religious and educational institutions) to pressure its small northern neighbor.

History : all three of its former colonial administrators (Russia, Iran and Turkey) retain substantial and competing influence in the country.

85% of the population in Azerbaijan is Shiite.

Also, there is la large ethnic Azerbaijani population concentrated in northern Iran –roughly 25% of Iran’s total population

Their economic relationship is solid : trade between them is roughly 500 million USD per year, and Iran is one ot Azerbaijan’s main importer of natural gas.

However, political relations have become more contentious : Iran has politically and financially supported the Islamic Party of Azerbaijan (AIP) a pro-Iranian and religious Shiite opposition party officially banned by Baku. Tehran, meanwhile, is concerned about Baku’s use of its links to certain segments of Iran’s ethnic Azerbaijani population to sow discord within Iran and serve as a launching point for the West into Iran.

BUT ONCE AGAIN RUSSIA IS A FACTOR OF BALANCE

Russia is not interested in a serious disruption of the statu quo, especially one that could give Tehran or the West more influence in Azerbaijan.

If Iran meddles in Azerbaijan too much, Russia can put pressure in Iran, either by controlling the operations of Iran’s Russian built Bushehr nuclear facility or increasing cooperation with the West over sanctions and weapons sales

Azerbaijan plays a key role in any European plans to diversify energy supplies away from Russia whose natural gas constitute roughly a quarter of European energy consumption.

ONLY NATURAL GAS FROM IRAN OR IRAQ MIGHT BE ACCESSIBLE WITHOUT TRAVERSING AZERBAIJAN

That confirms the NEW ROLE OF RUSSIA ON THE CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA CHESSBOARD

A balance power or a stability power

BETWEEN THE US AND CHINA

BETWEEN IRAN AND THE US

My global forecast for the great Middle East and Central Asia

The US are preparing to withdraw from Afghanistan after Iraq. Be careful, a false withdrawal like in Iraq : contractors are replacing the US army ; we have been in a process a war privatization for more than 20 years now (an mainly since the Balkans war in 1994)

In Iraq you have more than 200 000 contractors working in military and security services, in commodities supplying, telecommunications

Thanks to the official elimination of Ben Laden, the US is not ready to explain to the public opinion that’s the job is done for the army. As you know the withdrawal is planned at the end of this year.

But all these proxies and Private military companies working as contractors will have to be geopolitically secured. That imply a pact of stability in Central Asia against Islamic fundamentalism coming either from Taliban and radical sunnis as from Iran and Shias.

Neither China nor Russia want a Regime Change in Central Asia. Remember how China tried to hide to its population what happened in Egypt or Tunisia. A wind of democracy approaching to its border (Xinjiang) is unbelievable for Beijing.

Europe needs energy from Central Asia and US needs stable doors to Afghanistan.

The central question of the future is Iran. Iran has a strong civil society and a regime change is possible in Tehran. Iran is the key question that determine the future of all the Arabic Gulf regimes and at the same time of many Caucasus and Central Asia regimes :

1/ What might happen to the Saudi monarchy in case of a democratic and pro-US Iran? Remember that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were united about the Bahrain crisis against the Iranian game

2/ What might happen to the Central Asia’s autocracies in case of a democratic Iran ? Probably a closeness of Russia and China to keep the control on Central Asia.

Aymeric Chauprade