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Mid-Continent M&A Trends
August 6, 2020
Denver 1144 15th Street, Suite 3900
Denver, CO 80202 (303) 953-6768
Houston 600 Travis Street, Suite 6700
Houston, TX 77002 (713) 659-0760
Petrie Partners – Strategic Advisors to the Energy Industry
1
Independent advice and service, without conflicts from other lines of business
No lending, research or private equity affiliates
Senior attention from the most experienced bankers in the industry – we don’t have a “B” or “C” team
Denver / Houston axis ensures seamless logistics for clients throughout the oil patch
We emphasize execution over origination at the highest levels of the firm
Cycle-tested investment banking team
Mid-Con M&A Discussion
Recent Market Developments
2
COVID-19 reported cases have exceeded 18 million globally, as some U.S. states begin to reimpose lockdowns
The broader U.S. markets have partially recovered from March lows on support from the Fed
Many energy investors are wary of increasing their exposure to shale in the face of muted oil demand, ESG pressure and challenging economics / margins
E&Ps trading at depressed multiples based on investor apathy creating a lack of access to new capital
Upstream bankruptcies accelerating and likely to continue with several companies filing the past few weeks
In contrast to past decade, public operators are no longer being rewarded for production growth and scale, with investors now focusing on right-sized balance sheets and returning capital to shareholders
Oil prices rebounded to ~$40 / Bbl in July but appear to be range bound at this level
U.S. rig count has fallen from 2019 highs of ~950 to ~250 while storage levels remain elevated
Mid-Con M&A Discussion
$0.1 $0.6 $0.8
$2.0
$1.4
$2.9
$1.1
$5.9
$1.6
$0.0
$1.3
$4.3
$0.1 $0.1 $0.0 $0.3 $0.5
$0.1 $0.1
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
3
8
6 6
5 5
9
2
4
-
7
9
1
4
-
3 3
2 2
0
3
6
9
12
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
A&D Activity at Historical Lows (Last 18-Months)
3
Source: PLS, IHS and Petrie transaction databases.
Total Deal Value ($Bn)
Total Deal Count (#)
MUR / LLOG $1.4 Bn
EQNR / RDS $1.0 Bn
CRK / Covey $1.5 Bn
Hilcorp / BP $5.6 Bn
WPX / Felix $2.5 Bn
Mid-Con M&A Discussion
All Deals > $1 Bn
Value ($Bn) $23.1 $12.6
Deal Count 79 5
Mid-Con Perspective
4
Mid-Con M&A Discussion
“We're really pleased to have those mid-continent assets. They're generating really good cash flow. As the strip firms up on gas, they're
looking better and better. We have some investment opportunities there when we get back to work that will compete nicely with our Permian assets, particularly if oil prices stayed depressed”
- Tom Jordan, CEO
“The Anadarko is prime for additional capital cost initiatives such as Simul-Frac facilities and savings in water sourcing and disposal. This will continue to push costs down and enhance our rates of return” - Greg Givens, COO
“Prior to 2017, drilling was largely dominated by unbounded wells with increasingly larger completion designs. As operators
began downspacing and drilling child wells, recoveries decreased dramatically”
- L48 Basin Trends “We think all three of them [Mid-Con, PRB, Eagle Ford] have an important place in the portfolio going forward. But a rank order really going to depend on what kind of assumptions you want to make across the three streams” - David Harris, EVP
Operator and Research Excerpts
'08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20'06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
0
1 500
3 000
4 500
6 000
'10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20'08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
'10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Evolution of Major US Shale Oil Basins
5
Mid-Con M&A Discussion
Mid-Con Development
Mid-Con A&D Transactions
Eagle Ford Development Permian Development Bakken Development
Permian A&D Transactions Eagle Ford A&D Transactions Bakken A&D Transactions
Transaction Value
$M / Net Acre
Source: Enervus, PLS, Petrie Databases.
Peak Investor Interest
2010-2014
Primary Basin Pre-Oil Crash
2013-2014
Investor Interest 2nd
Wave
2017-2019
Permian Rotation 2016-2018
Peak Investor Interest
2016-2017
Annual Hz. Wells
Oil Prod. (MBopd)
$0
$75
$150
$225
$300
$0
$5 000
$10 000
$15 000
$20 000
'10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Transaction Value ($MM)
$M / Boepd
$0 $0
$540 $160
$1 225
$2 919
$4 766
$1 113
$550
$1 761
$160
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$0
$1 000
$2 000
$3 000
$4 000
$5 000
$6 000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
121 237
356 365 302
484 505
909
1 239
1 019
161
0
100
200
300
400
0
400
800
1 200
1 600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Evolution of the Mid-Continent Mid-Con M&A Discussion
Source: Enervus, PLS, Petrie Databases.
6
Mid-Con A&D Transactions
Mid-Con Basin Development
Annual Hz. Wells
Oil Prod. (MBopd)
Deal Count 1 1 1 6 5 14 7 2 5
Devon / Felix
Gulfport / Vitruvian
Transaction Values
$M / Boepd
Mid-Continent Significant Transactions Mid-Con M&A Discussion
Source: Enervus and public filings. (1) Transaction value adjusted for production value of $30,000 / Boepd.
(2) Assumes $1.34 Bn of purchase price allocated to Kingfisher Midstream based on 2018 EBITDA of $183 MM and a 7.3x EBITDA multiple.
(3) Calculated as total purchase price divided by target current production.
7
Date Announced Acquiror Target
Transaction
Value ($MM)
Daily
Production (MBoepd)
Net Acres
Adj. Acreage
Value ($/acre) (1)
10/1/19 $1,014 50.8 182,000 $0
11/1/18 $7,700 199.0 360,000 $4,806
8/16/17 Silver Run $3,836 20.8 120,000 $15,590
12/14/16 $1,850 30.5 46,000 $20,151
6/20/16 $888 8.6 61,000 $10,328
12/7/15 $1,900 9.0 80,000 $20,375
Average: $92,241
Transaction Value / Production ($ / Boepd) (3)
(2)
$211 111
$103 256
$60 656
$119 764
$38 693 $19 964
$0
$50 000
$100 000
$150 000
$200 000
$250 000
12/7/15 6/20/16 12/14/16 8/16/17 11/1/18 10/1/19
Devon / Felix Marathon / PayRock Gulfport / Vitruvian Silver Run / Alta Mesa Encana / Newfield Citizen / ROAN
(2)
$2 809
$1 910
$2 591 $2 626
$1 323
$2 650
$1 800
$2 400
$2 700
$1 300
$0
$500
$1 000
$1 500
$2 000
$2 500
$3 000
CLR DVN MRO OVV XEC
Select Mid-Con Operators Capex Cuts ($MM) Mid-Con M&A Discussion
Source: Company press releases and public filings.
8
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
2019 Capex – Mid-Con 2020E Initial Capex 2020E Revised Capex – Other
2019 2020
2019 Capex - Other 2020E Revised Capex – Mid-Con
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
CLR DVN MRO XEC
Bar
Heig
ht
= %
of T
ota
l C
apex
Spent in
Mid
-Con
Mid-Continent Capital Allocation Mid-Con M&A Discussion
Source: RSEG.
9
Multi-Basin Operator Capital Allocation
Well Count
79%
21%
59%
41%
30%
70%
100%
100%
100% 94%
6%
71%
29% 12%
88%
100%
100%
100%
103 16 130 61 91 94 60 67 56 32 39 45
SCOOP % of Wells
STACK % of Wells
J.P. Morgan NAV Comparison – Select Mid-Con Operators Mid-Con M&A Discussion
Note: Analysis based on average oil pricing of $38.17 and $40.21 / Bbl in 2020 and 2021 and average gas pricing of $1.85 and $2.57 in 2020 and 2021.
10
Report Date 7/15/2020 7/14/2020 7/15/2020 7/13/2020
$MM $/Share $MM $/Share $MM $/Share $MM $/Share
Proved Developed Producing
United States $9,476 $25.90 $4,789 $12.50 $6,318 $7.90 $2,943 $28.90
Other - - - - 1,634 2.00 - -
Total PDP Reserve Value $9,476 $25.90 $4,789 $12.50 $7,952 $9.90 $2,943 $28.90
Undeveloped Reserves
Bakken $960 $2.60 - - $2,198 $2.80 - -
Permian Basin - - 2,743 7.10 156 0.25 2,588 25.50
SCOOP 489 1.30 - - 36 0.00 - -
STACK 59 0.20 - - 18 0.00 - -
Other Mid-Con 19 0.10 - - - - 53 0.50
Other - - 379 1.00 1,066 1.30 - -
Total Undeveloped Reserve Value $1,527 $4.20 $3,122 $8.10 $3,474 $4.35 $2,641 $26.00
Balance Sheet & Other
Less: Long-Term Debt + ARO ($5,326) ($14.60) ($4,918) ($12.80) ($5,501) ($6.90) ($2,642) ($25.90)
Plus: Cash & Equiv + NWC + Hedges 39 0.10 4,100 10.70 858 1.10 (215) (2.10)
Total Balance Sheet Adjustments ($5,287) ($14.50) ($818) ($2.10) ($4,643) ($5.80) ($2,857) ($28.00)
Net Asset Value $5,716 $15.60 $7,093 $18.50 $6,783 $8.45 $2,727 $26.90
Mid-Con % of Undeveloped Value 37% 0% 2% 2%
Company
Private Equity
Sponsor
Mid-Con
Net Acres Commentary
Kayne Anderson ~14,000 Actively marketing merger with other Kayne backed operators
Apollo ~127,000 Filed for Ch. 11 in Sept. 2019 with $1.1 Bn of outstanding debt; liquidation plan approved May 2020
Kayne Anderson ~10,000 Actively marketing merger with other Kayne backed operators
NGP ~100,000 Merged with NGP backed Rebellion and 89 Energy
Kayne Anderson ~61,000 Actively marketing merger with other Kayne backed operators
Ares / Apollo ~165,000 Merged with Gastar in 2019; filed for Ch. 11 in June 2020 with $517 MM of debt outstanding
Kayne Anderson ~24,000 Actively marketing merger with other Kayne backed operators
EnCap ~102,000 Merged with EnCap backed Excalibur in Jan. 2020
Kennedy Lewis ~154,000 Announced plan to restructure $450 MM of debt in April 2020, includes preferred equity commitment from Kennedy Lewis
Ares ~273,000 Filed for Chapter 11 in June 2020 with $426 MM of outstanding debt
Kayne Anderson ~12,000 Actively marketing merger with other Kayne backed operators
Private Equity-Backed Company Trends Mid-Con M&A Discussion
Source: Enervus and company presentations.
11
Select Mid-Con Private Equity-Backed Companies Current / Recent Restructuring
Closing Remarks Mid-Con M&A Discussion
12
The Mid-Con has fallen out of favor with investors over the last few years, a trend that has been heavily exacerbated by recent global events
Areal extent of the “core” has been redefined, along with thoughts on best practices for spacing and economic go-forward inventory
Traditional M&A and A&D markets likely to remain challenged in the current commodity price environment; however, the composition of the basin will be altered by the impending wave of bankruptcy-driven consolidation
Bankruptcies and restructurings likely to continue until commodity prices and capital markets recover
Key producers focusing on efficient, self-funded development and disciplined capital allocation versus prioritizing growth
Opportunities exist for well-capitalized buyers to make transformative acquisitions; universe of capable and interested parties remains limited