Michigan and 2014: A State of Play

An assessment of Michigan’s top statewide races

The MDP: think the Lions, if they hadn’t fired Jim Schwartz

Several statewide positions lack declared (SoS, Sup Ct) or widely supported (AG) candidates

Statewide Democratic candidates (Schauer, Peters, et al.) lag behind Republican opponents

Lon Johnson, MDP Chair

Michigan GovernorGovernor Rick Snyder (R) v. Mark Schauer

(D)

Governor Snyder builds his lead…

Governor Snyder: < 50%, but consistently leads Democrat Mark Schauer

Recent polling has Snyder up

… and Schauer lags behind.

Falling behind in polling, and in resources

Tough to gain on opponent; no specific plans have hampered him

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US SenateTerri Lynn Land (R) v. Rep. Gary Peters (D)

Two Evenly Matched Teams…

Both have strong electoral records

Land: Secretary of State victories in 2002 and ’06

Peters: a close loss to formerAG Cox in 2002, Congressional wins in 2010 and ‘12

…with Land Exceeding Expectations

In the last two quarters of 2013,

Land raised $3.6 million

According to recent FEC filings and polling, Land has a small, but meaningful lead

Independent ad buys bolster both candidates.

US Chamber and MI Chamber Endorse

War on Women comes to this race. Really.

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Michigan Supreme Court

Justices Brian Zahra, David Viviano, and an open seat

Snyder’s Appointments Up For Re-election

While rare for an incumbent justice to lose, there is precedent

In 2008 and 2010, incumbent justices Alton Davis and Cliff Tayor were, respectively, defeated

No announced candidates, but worth keeping an eye on the vacant seat up for grabs

Justice David Viviano

Justice Brian Zahra

US CongressRaces to watch: Rep. Dan Benishek (R, MI-1), Justin Amash (R, MI-3), Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI-7), Rep. Kerry Bentivolio

(R, MI-11)

Open Seats: 4-R- Konetchy v. Mitchell v. Moolenaar (Camp)

8-R- Bishop v. McMillin (Rogers open); D-Darga v. Gretternberg v. Hank v. Scherzing

14: D- Burgess v. Clarke v. Hobbs v. Lawrence

A Tight Race in Michigan’s 1st

Benishek’s 2012 race one of the tightest in the nation

In 2014, Benishek’s opponent is county sheriff Jerry Cannon

Cannon proving to be a strong fundraiser, but gaffe-prone

Jerry Cannon (l) and Rep. Dan Benishek (r)

Primaries to Watch

Michigan’s 11th

Seat currently held by incumber Kerry Bentivolio

Challenger: Oakland County businessman Dave Trott. Endorsed by MI Chamber.

In the last quarter of 2013, Trott outraised Bentivolio 10 to 1. Trott is on tv. Bentivolio hearing today in Plymouth

Michigan’s 3rd

Libertarian Republican Rep. Justin Amash faces primary challenger Brian Ellis

Amash endorsed by Club for Growth, Freedomworks

Ellis ad hitting Amash on RTL issues/legislative record

Primaries to Watch

Michigan’s 8th Republican +3-4

Conservative Mike Bishop v. Libertarian/Tea party Tom McMillin

Congressman Rogers endorsed Bishop; Congressman Amash endorsed McMillin

Michigan’s 4th Republican +5-6

Peter Konetchy v. Paul Mitchell v. John Moolenaar

Paul Mitchell went up with 2nd ad; organization

John Moolenaar: Popular legislator; endorsements from elected officials/grassroots activists

Generals to Watch

Michigan’s 7th Republican +3-4

Conservative Republican Tim Walberg. Gadfly primary Daniel Radcliffe North.

Democrat Pam Byrnes

Competitive fundraising in 1st quarter

Michigan’s 14th Democrat Battle Royale:

former Congressman Hansen Clarke; State Rep Rudy Hobbs; Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence; and Burgess Foster

A Conyers makes the ballot. Republican Christina Conyers

Attorney General and Secretary of State

AG Bill Schuette (R) v. Totten/Dillard (D); SoS Ruth Johnson (R) v. Nobody (D)

Schuette and Johnson: Free Ride to the End Zone?

SoS Ruth Johnson (R) has no announced opponent, with Byrum silent and Brown running as Schauer’s LG candidate

AG Schuette faces Mark Totten or Goddfrey Dillard, who both lack wide support among Democrats

SoS Ruth Johnson (l), AG Bill Schuette (r)

Michigan LegislatureLikely GOP holds in Senate and House

Michigan Legislature Highlights

House 59-51 GOP majority

GOP Pickup to Watch:Canton area: Fausone v. Pagan/Mathas/Mosher;

Open Monroe Zorn seat: Jason Sheppard v Mima Kubiske. V. Dem Tom Redmond

Rising star: Livonia seats; Wayne Cty Commissioner Cox (R) likely Livonia candidate v. Crider

Holly Hughes (R) could flip Rep. Lamonte (D) seat, as could Tom Barrett (R) with Rep. Abed (D)

Competitive GOP-held seats in Troy and downriver Wayne with Howylrak and Sommerville, respectively

Senate 26-12 GOP majority

4 key races all held by GOP

7th: Colbeck (R) v. Slavens (D)

17th: Zorn (R) v. Spade (D) (Open)

20th: O’Brien, Wenke, Zuiderveen (R) v. Sean McCann (D)

32nd: Ken Horn (R) v, Stacey Erwin Oakes, Lewis, Federspiel (D)

Ballot Initiatives Minimum Wage hike, Personal Property Tax

exemptionPart-time legislature; Wolf Hunting

Ballot Initiatives to Watch

Raise MI: Minimum Wage hike

Effort to put the hike on the ballot still developing—Restaurant Opportunity Center

$206,000 raised; $147,000 in-kind; $32,000 on hand

Competing legislative proposal.

Part-Time Legislaature

Low on funds. $48,000 for cycle; $10,000 on hand

Not sure signatures will happen

Key contributors: Dave Agema;

Ballot Initiatives to Watch

PPT Reform

Citizens for Strong Safe Communities: $5.2 Million Raised

Serious Money: Ford $2 million; Dow $1.5 million; MMA $1.2 Million

$125,000 spent on start-up costs

Ballot Initiatives to Watch

Wolf Hunting

Effort to put the hike on the ballot still developing. Signatures collected

2012 US Fish and Wildlife Deregulated Wolf from endangered species

MI Dept. Natural Resources allowed to regulate wolf hunting season. 700 Wolves. Nov/Dec 2013—43 wolf hunted

Competing proposals. Pro-signatures for citizens initative will be turned in and opposing will be knocked off.

Ballot Initiatives to Watch

Wolf Hunting—Keep Michigan Wolves

Protected

$1.4 Million Raised; $1,000,000 spent; $427, 594 on hand

Most spending collecting signatures

Humane Society Backing

Citizens for Professional Wildlife

Management

Ballot initiative to reinforce MI NRC allowing hunts

$464, 398 raised $430,000 spent; $36,529 on hand

Conservation groups supporting

Questions?