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Michele FRANCIONICEO RINA SERVICES S.p.A.Shipping and the Law - October 2014
Why invest in Eco ships?
IS THIS THE RIGHT TIME FOR INVESTING?
INVESTING…
(1)
Sources: Banchero Costa research “Dry Bulk Market Update”
SHIP SUPPLY - BULK CARRIER
Sources: Banchero Costa research “The Product Tanker Market”
SHIP SUPPLY - PRODUCT TANKER
World fleet (mill. dwt)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (f) -
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Tanker Bulker
CAGR ’12-’14: + 3.7%
WORLD SHIP SUPPLY
Sources: Clarkson “World Fleet Monitor”
CAGR BULK ’12-’14: + 5%
CAGR TANKER ’12-’14: + 1.8%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (f)0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Liquid Bulk
WORLD SHIP DEMAND
Sources: Clarkson “Oil and Tanker Trade outlook”, “Dry Bulk Trade outlook”, “Shipping Intelligence Network”
Seaborne trade (mill. tons)
CAGR ’12-’14: + 3.4%
CAGR BULK ’12-’14: + 4.9%
CAGR TANKER ’12-’14: + 1.1%
CHARTER RATES
1 year time charter tanker (USD) 1 year time charter bulker (USD)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
Suezmax Aframax Panamax Handysize
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Capesize Panamax Handymax Handysize
Sources: Clarkson “Oil and Tanker Trade outlook”, “Dry Bulk Trade outlook”, “Shipping Intelligence Network”
IS THE GAP SUPPLY/DEMAND GOING TO BE RECOVERED SOON?
IS DEMOLITION ACTUALLY HELPING TO REDUCE THE GAP?
Sources: Banchero Costa research “Dry Bulk Market Update”
New orders growth: 55m dwt in 2012 179m dwt in 2013 66m dwt in 2014 First Quarter
BANKSPRIVATE
EQUITY FUND
Sources: Clarkson “Shipping Review and Outlook”; Lloyd’s List on-line
DO ECO SHIPS OFFER SIGNIFICANT RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL?
VS
(1)
PRO ECO SHIP OWNERS
(1)
PRO SECOND-HAND SHIP OWNERS
KEY FACTORS FOR CHOICE
New building prices Second-hand prices Actual fuel saving Availability of good second-hand/resales Operational speed required by the market
ECO SHIP FUEL SAVING, HOW MUCH?
Type Size DWTConvent. Ship -
Average daily fuel oil consumption
(Tons) 2006-2010
Eco Ship - Average daily
fuel oil consumption
(Tons) 2012-2013
Daily Save per
ship (Tons)
% Daily Save
Speed (kn)
Oil Tanker Handysize 40000 29.7 22.3 7.4 25% 14.4
RINA Analysis
IMO – Air emission: 0.1% SOx in ECA 01.01.2015
New and existing ships IMO – Air emission: -10% CO2 EEDI 01.01.2015 (2020 & 2025)
New ships IMO – Air emission – NOx in ECA 01.01.2016
New ships IMO – GBS
01.07.2016New ships
IMO – Ballast Water Treatmentnot yet into forceNew and existing ships
REGULATORY FACTORS
SULPHUR OXIDES (SOX) Exhaust gas cleaning systems (scrubbers)
Nitrous Oxides (NOX) SCR - Selective Catalytic Reduction
Ballast Water Convention BWTS
NEW ECO FEATURES : Is it worth investing?
An holistic approach is needed
Regulation
Financial Issues
Technical Solutions
Laws & Authorizations
Logistic Scenario
Social Perception
IS LNG A SOLUTION?
The key to success in the risk/return game is not to minimize or maximize risk but to manage risk
Mark A. Johnson
Thank you for your attention!
RINA SERVICES S.p.A.
Via Corsica, 12 16128 Genoa - ItalyPh. +39 010 53851 Fax +39 010 5351000 [email protected]
