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Mercyhurst College Department of Intelligence Studies
Turkey An Emerging Democratic Force in the Middle East
Michael Steven Geer II 2/22/2013
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Table of Contents Overall Estimate ......................................................................................................................... 3
ICP .................................................................................................................................................. 6
Link Chart Analysis ................................................................................................................... 9
IPB................................................................................................................................................. 11
ACH ............................................................................................................................................... 16
Contact Information ................................................................................................................. 31
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Section 1: Overall Estimate
Executive Summary:
The Republic of Turkey is likely to remain stable over the next 24 months. Many factors contributed to
this assessment such as political, military, social, economic, geographical, and technological factors.
The major contributing factor to this continued stability is the growing strength of Turkish democratic
values. The current regime led by AK party chairman, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has
brought an unprecedented period of economic growth, and has substantially increased Turkish
regional influence thus far during his previous two terms. Erdogan is the longest serving Prime
Minister in the History of the Turkish Republic and began his third and final term in office in 2012.
Discussion:
Prime Minister Erdogan and his AK party were reelected in 2011 with overwhelming public support. The
2011 elections results showed AK party won a 50% majority of the popular vote which granted AK party
another term with a large majority in the Grand National Assembly. In his reelection acceptance speech
Erdogan called for a new referendum to change the constitution of the Republic of Turkey, the need for
a new constitution is something that is recognized across the political spectrum. “It is an open secret
that Erdogan is interested in switching to a more presidential form of government, raising speculation
that Erdogan intends to become president once his third and final term as prime minister is over.”1 It
is widely feared that AKP could attempt to recreate its constitution with its core Islamic values in mind.
However, this possibility is not likely to occur since AKP fell short of attaining a super majority in the
2011 election, thus will have to negotiate any changes to the existing constitution with its political
opposition.
Under the leadership of AKP and Prime Minister Erdogan Turkey has enjoyed a period of relative
economic prosperity. Prime Minister Erdogan took over an economy with serious debt issues. Turkey
implemented a series of IMF financial reforms which caused an unprecedented era of economic growth.
According the Central Intelligence Agency Turkey was able to sustain an annual GDP growth rate over
6% until 2008. Reforms with the Turkish financial markets allowed turkey to quickly recover from the
2008 global financial meltdown. According to data retrieved from the CIA World Fact Book “Turkey's
well-regulated financial markets and banking system helped the country weather the global
financial crisis and GDP rebounded strongly to 9.2% in 2010.” 2 This continued economic
success has significantly contributed to AKP’s public support and Turkish stability overall.
Turkey has had a long history of frequent military intervention in the political system. The Turkish military has acted as a guardian to the country’s secular traditions and has seen fit to oust
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governments that it has deemed a threat to those traditions. In 2010 a coup plan was uncovered by Turkish government authorities, the government responded with the “arrest and detention of more than 50 current and former senior officers.”3 This action was significant and highlighted the growing strength of Turkish democracy. The AKP has revitalized the Turkish economy, championed traditional Islamic conservatism and values, as a result has enjoyed overwhelming public support. This public support has given the AKP led civilian government the confidence to challenge the military for the first time in the history of the Turkish republic. It is highly unlikely that another military coup will remove the current civilian government in the near future.
The greatest threats to stability in Turkey are military threats. For nearly thirty years the Turkish Military Forces have been fighting a Kurdish insurgency led by a terrorist organization called the PKK. PKK terrorist attacks have recently destabilized the Southeastern Hakkari province with a series of well organized attacks. The PKK has become a more organized and more sophisticated threat in recent years and has adopted several of the tactics employed by other terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda in Iraq. According to Karen Kaya in regard to recent changes in the tactics employed by the PKK “These include the use of simultaneous coordinated attacks (particularly vehicle attacks); suicide bombings; use of the Internet to broadcast videos of hostages; and sophisticated information operations.”4 This change in tactics suggests an increase in the strength and resources of the organization. It is likely that the PKK will remain a significant source of instability over the next 24 months.
Turkish relationship with Syria has become toxic over the past few years. Turkish hydropower projects to dam the Euphrates River have threatened to restrict the water flow of the river into neighboring Syria as well as Iraq. The Euphrates River is the most significant source of fresh water in Syria. Having control over the Euphrates rivers water flow would give Turkey the ability to significantly reduce Syrian access to a vital resource. Another issue that has caused recent tensions between Turkey and Syria is the Syrian government’s recent violent crackdown on civilian protestors.5 Another issue threatening relations between Turkey and Syria is the presence of between 70,000 to 100,000 Syrian refugees that have fled into turkey since the Syrian government crackdown began. The Syrian issue is a significant threat to regional stability.
Comments:
This analysis was completed using a wide range of reliable sources. The analytic confidence in this product is also high. This section is an overall assessment of the overall stability of the Turkish Republic over the next 24 months. The following sections will provide a more detail analysis of the various components used in order to determine this assessment.
Source Reliability: 7
Source Confidence: 8
1 Butler, Daren. (Jul. 30, 2011). Erdogan focuses on constitution as Turkey's top brass quit. Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/30/us-turkey-constitution-idUSTRE76T1JY20110730 2 Central Intelligence Agency. (2013). CIA World Factbook: Turkey. Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tu.html
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3 Warner, Margret. (Feb. 25, 2010). Turkish Military Leaders Released in Coup Probe. Retrieved from http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/jan-june10/turkey_02-25.html. 4 Kaya, Karen. (2009). PKK’s Changing Tactics and Rhetoric Mimic Insurgencies, Al-Qaida.
Retrieved from http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/PKKs-Changing-Tactics.pdf. 5 The New York Times. (Feb. 22, 2013). Turkey: Breaking News. Retrived from
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/turkey/index.html
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Turkey Intelligence Collection Plan
ID Source Name Type of Source
Intelligence Type Periodicity Purpose Time Utility Title Comments
Source Reliability
1 Reuters Online News Source OSINT Daily Political yes
Highly Useful
Turkey says has spent $600 million on Syria refugees
Article about recent influx of refugees in Turkey escaping from recent Syrian instability. 6
2 CIA World Factbook: Turkey
Government Website OSINT Frequent Political yes
Highly Useful CIA World Factbook: Turkey
Political, Geographic, Military, and Economic details 8
3 CNN Blog OSINT Daily Political yes Useful CNN: Global public square
Blog with a diverse range of posts about recent Turkish relations with regional neighbors as well as recent domestic disturbances within Turkey and the Middle east region. 6
4 Google Earth Other IMINT Frequent Geography yes Useful Google Earth: Turkey Satillite imagery of Turkey 7
5 U.S. State Department
Government Website OSINT Frequent Social yes Useful 2012 INCSR: Country Reports- Turkey
Report on recent developments and issues relating to the issue of international drug trafficking in Turkey. 8
6 U.S. State Department
Government Website OSINT Frequent Economics yes Useful 2012 INCSR: juristictions of primary concern
Report detailing economic impact of the internation drug trade in Turkey 8
7 The New York Times
Online Newspaper OSINT Daily Military yes Useful
Tensions between the military and the government
Details recent tensions between the military and civilian governemt. 7
8
U.S. Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs
Government Website OSINT As Needed Economics yes Useful 2012 Investment Climate Statement
Report on Turkish economy detailing possible risk and reward scenerios for American investors. This was a good reference about the economic issues facing Turkey. 7
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9 Strategy Page Corporate Website OSINT As needed Military yes Useful Iran Invades Turkey
Provided specific information about the Kurdish insurgency. 5
10
NASA Astrophysics Data System
Government Website OSINT As needed Technology yes Useful
The case of the Kayraktepe dam, Turkey
Case study which gives insight into Turkish motivations for creating a sizable hydroelectric power system, an issue which has caused tension between Turkey and it's neighbors. 9
11 Youth & Society Online Journal OSINT As needed Social yes Useful
Spotlighting a Silent Category of Young Females: the life experiences of House Girls in Turkey
insight into changing social position of women in Turkey. 7
12 Al Jazzera Online News Source OSINT Daily Political yes Useful What Challenges Lie Ahead for Turkey
News program about the challenges Turkey will face in the coming years as it's 4th parliament is launched in Ankara. 7
13
Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Government Website OSINT as needed Geography yes Useful
Water: A source of conflict of cooperation in the Middle East
Information relating to Turkey's view of their claim to water rights from the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. 6
14 U.S. Army War College
Educational Institution OSINT As Needed Political yes
Highly Useful Turkey: Enduring Partner or Emerging Foe?
Depicts two emerging viewpoints of the direction of U.S.-Turkish relations. 7
15 U.S. Army War College
Educational Institution OSINT As Needed Technology yes Useful Cyber Security: A Roadmap for Turkey
details turkish plans for increased cyber security. 7
16 ANSAmed Online News Source OSINT As Needed Technology yes Useful
Technology: Launch of first Turkish made satillite in May.
news report about development in Turkish technological capabilities. 6
17 RAND Corperation
Corporate Website OSINT As Needed Social yes Useful The Turkish Chimera
shows differences between Turkish culture and political development and other countries in the Middle East. 6
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Aninimous former U.S.A.F. Officer
Personal Interview HUMINT As Needed Geography yes
Highly Useful
Personal interview with former U.S.A.F. special operations officer whom was formerly stationed in Turkey.
General information relating to Tukish geography, military, and strategic importance to U.S. interests.
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Section 3: Link Chart Analysis
Executive Summary:
The political power structure in the Turkish Republic is likely to remain stable for the next 24 months.
Recent developments in Turkish politics have granted civilian authorities more power and significantly
reduced that of the military. The threat of another military coup in Turkey is unlikely in the near
future. Recent developments in the electoral system have given a greater role to the President; this
suggests the development of a stronger executive branch similar to that of the United States.
Discussion:
The link chart below indicates a degree of betweeness that exists between the political and military
nodes. The military has traditionally been able to operate with relative autonomy from the elected
civilian government. The Turkish military sees itself as the guardian of the states secular tradition which
dates back to the founding of the Turkish Republic by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in 1923. “Starting in 1960,
the military conducted coups d’état almost every decade, removing administrations which it deemed a
threat to the secular nature of Turkey or deviated from its constitution.”1 Recent changes in the
country’s political climate have allowed the elected government which is led by the conservative
Islamic AK party, to take far greater level of control over the Turkish military.
The link chart depicts the political power structure of the Turkish Republic. The Turkish government is classified as a republican parliamentary democracy by the Central intelligence Agency this means it is a republican form of government where a unicameral legislature is elected by popular vote.2 In Turkey this unicameral body is referred to as the Grand National Assembly. The Grand National assembly elects the president, passes laws, and is responsible for supervising the Council of Ministers. The Grand National Assembly members are elected through popular vote every five years. There are a total of 550 members of the Grand National Assembly; this is the primary legislative body of the state. The office of President in the Turkish Republic has gained significance since the passage of the current constitution in 1982. According to the constitution of the Republic of Turkey the President is essentially a management position within the government. The President appoints the Military General Staff, the members of the council of ministers whom oversee the various executive agencies, the president appoints the Prime minister, as well as to “appoint the members of the Constitutional Court, one- fourth of the members of the Council of State, the Chief Public Prosecutor and the Deputy Chief Public Prosecutor of the High Court of Appeals, the members of the Military High Court of Appeals, the members of the Supreme Military Administrative Court and the members of the Supreme Council of Judges and Public Prosecutors.”3 The President also has the authority to issue executive orders with the
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approval of the Prime Minister. The President also manages the Turkish Military Forces and can declare martial law in a state of crisis. The vast majority of political power in Turkey is in the hands of the Prime Minister. Officially the role of the Prime Minister is to manage the Council of Ministers. However, the Prime Minister is also the leader of the ruling majority party in the Grand National Assembly. The current Prime Minister of the Turkish Republic is Recep Tayyip Erdogan. President Erdogan leads the ruling AK party. In the 2011 elections AK retained majority membership in the Grand National Assembly with an overwhelming 50% of the popular vote.4 According to Margret Warner the continued flow of overwhelming public support Erdogan and AKP have earned has allowed the government to challenge the military and for the first time avert a planned coup. The government arrested many top military officials and replaced much of the General staff. Civilian control of the military is one of the necessary requirements for a successful democracy and has illustrated the stability of the current regime in Ankara. Comments: A vast majority of the information about the specific functions of the various governmental bodies in the Turkish Republic was gathered directly from the Constitution of the Republic of Turkey, which is a direct source and is very reliable. Information about recent political events in Turkey was gathered from U.S. government databases as well as from reputable news organizations such as PBS, and the BBC. These sources are highly reliable, and there is a large amount of analytic confidence in this annex. The analysis in this annex is focused primarily of the stability of the political system in Turkey and does not take external threats to stability or threats of a military nature into consideration. Source Reliability: 8 Source Confidence: 8
1 Kaya, Karen. (April, 2011). Changing Civil Military Relations in Turkey. Retrived from http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/Civil-Military-Relations-in-Turkey.pdf 2 Central Intelligence Agency. (2013). CIA World Factbook: Turkey. Retrived from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tu.html 3 The Constitution of the Republic of Turkey. (Oct. 17, 2001). Retrived from http://www.anayasa.gov.tr/images/loaded/pdf_dosyalari/THE_CONSTITUTION_OF_THE_REPUBLIC_OF_TURKEY.pdf 4BBC News. (June 12, 2011). Turkey ruling party wins election with reduced majority. Retrived from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13740147.
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Political Power Structure of the Turkish
Republic
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Section 4: Intelligence Preparation of the
Battlefield
Executive Summary:
Turkish military power is sufficient to defend the country against any current
threat. Turkey has key strategic alliances which will help to deter potential state
aggressors such as Syria, and Iran. Turkey has favorable terrain in terms of
gaining defending territory from invading armies, the rugged terrain makes
maneuvering troops and mechanized units difficult. The same terrain will make it
difficult to defeat a guerilla force, using terrorist tactics such as the PKK. The
Turkish army is more than adequately prepared to defend against any external
threat; however the greater threat to Turkish stability is internal security and the
PKK Kurdish insurgency.
Discussion:
Turkey will face many challenges to its stability in the next 24 months. Turkey is a vast country
that lies between two continents, with one half bordering the peace and relative stability of
Europe, the other the revolutionary and rapidly changing region of the Middle East. The list of
potential security threats to Turkey is extensive ranging from tensions with Syria,
and Iran, to internal security issues, terrorism, narcotics trafficking, and the
Kurdish insurgency. Turkey has significant military resources available as well as a strong
alliance with western nations through its standing as a full member of NATO, these should serve
as ample deterrent to any potential foreign aggressor. Turkey also faces a significant
internal security threat from the Kurdish insurgency and the Kurdish Workers
party or PKK.
The Turkish military recently began a modernization program called “Force 2014”
which according to the Central Intelligence Agency is meant “produce 20-30%
smaller, more highly trained forces characterized by greater mobility and
firepower and capable of joint and combined operations”1. The point of this
modernization program is to enable greater maneuverability and versatility in or der
to prepare the Turkish military the capability to face the complex security needs of
the 21st century. Turkey is also upgrading its air superiority and has agreed to
purchase 100 state of the art F-35 Joint strike fighters from Lockheed Martin, the
first of these fighter aircraft are scheduled to be delivered in 2015.
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The Turkish military is one of the most formidable in the Middle East. The Turkish armed forces
consist of the Turkish Land Forces or Turk Kara Kuvvetleri, the Turkish Naval Forces or Turk
Deniz Kuvvetleri, and the Turkish Air Force or Turk Hava Kuvvetleri. “The land force has a
total active manpower of 402,000, including 325,000 conscripts with
approximately 258,700 troops in reserve.”1 The Turkish army is the largest and most
trusted institution in Turkey, as well as the most formidable fighting force. The TLF consists
of “4 Field Armies with 10 headquarters, 2 infantry divisions, 11 infantry brigades,
15 mechanized infantry brigades, 17 armored brigades, and 5 commando
brigades.”2 The Turkish first army group which is headquartered at Selimiye. The first army is
responsible for defending northwestern Turkey, including areas like Istanbul, Bosphorus, and
Kocaeli peninsula. The Turkish second army is headquartered at Malatya. The second army is
positioned in order to defend the Syrian and Iraqi border region. The Turkish third army is
deployed primarily in the central region of the country. The third army is headquartered at
Erzincan. The third army is the largest of the three active field armies and is contains the vast
majority of the mechanized units in the Turkish Land Forces. The central positioning of these
units allows for these units to quickly respond in support of other forces. The Aegean Army is
headquartered in Izmir. The mission of the Aegean army is to defend the coast of the Aegean
Sea.
Turkey has 15 airbases located throughout the country. According to the U.S. Air Force “The
Turkish Air Force is one of the oldest air forces in the world and operates one of the largest
combat aircraft fleets of NATO.”3 The central mission of the Turkish Air Force is to
“deter the enemy from its aggressive intention via its arms and means with
superior velocity and brisance, to counteract enemy aircraft rapidly as soon as
they enter Turkish airspace in case of an attack against the country, to discourage
and dishearten from maintaining the war by destroying the vital military targets of
the enemy country”.4 The Turkish Air Force also maintains a critical role in maintaining air
support and resupply efforts for the Turkish ground and naval forces. The Turkish military
currently lacks a clear defense for long range and medium range ballistic missile attacks.
Recently NATO has sought to address this concern given the current rising
tensions with Syria. NATO has recently installed a MIM-140 patriot missile system
in Turkey in order to help defend against any possible Syrian missile attack.5
Turkey has large areas of mountainous, rugged terrain, mostly concentrated in the central part
of the country. This terrain can help act as a natural defensive barrier against invading forces.
However, this same terrain can also act as a hindrance when conducting military
operations against a guerilla force with superior knowledge of that terrain. This has
been the case over the last 30 years as the Turkish military has waged a counter-insurgency
effort against the Kurdish PKK terrorists. The terrain aids the PKK in their use of hit and run
guerilla raids against static Turkish military positions. The PKK employs tactics such as
“staged small ambushes, it concentrated primarily on the use of mines, snipers
and long-range strafing of military outposts, after which its units rapidly withdrew
before the Turkish military could call up land reinforcements and air support.”6
These mountainous areas are classified as slow-go regions.
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According to the IPB there are two areas classified as no-go regions. The first of these
no-go regions is the southeastern Hakkari province. The Hakkari province has been
destabilized by a series of recent attacks by PKK terrorists on military and
government buildings. The second no-go region is the area along the Syrian border.
Tensions between Syria and turkey have become frosty in recent months as the Syrian
government continues to violently crackdown on civilian protestors. This problem is further
inflamed by the presence of between 70,000 to 100,000 Syrian refugees which
have fled into Turkey since the start of the violence.
Comments:
The terrain analysis was complete using images from Google Earth. The vast majority of the
order of battle information was obtained through GlobalSecurity.org a highly reliable source.
Some of the exact locations of various military installations as well as specific deployment of
forces information could not be located. General information to this regard was available, thus,
some of the locations are close approximations of actual positioning.
Source Reliability: 7
Source Confidence: 6
1 Pike, John. (2012). Turkish Land Forces. Retrieved from http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/tu-army.htm. 2Pike, John. (2012). Turkish Land Forces. Retrieved from http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/tu-army.htm. 3 USAF. (2006). Turkish Air Force. Retrieved from http://www.incirlik.af.mil/library/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=5470. 4 Pike, John. (2012). Turkish Air Forces. Retrieved from http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/tu-af.htm. 5 RIA Novosti. (Feb. 15, 2012). NATO reassures Russia over Turkey Patriot Deployment. http://en.rian.ru/search/?query=turkey+patriot+missiles&x=0&y=0. 6 Jenkins, Gareth. (Oct. 24, 2007). Terrorism Focus. Vol. 4, issue 34. PKK Changes Battlefield Tactics to Force Turkey into Negotiations. Retrieved from http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=4494.
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Turkey IPB Image
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Section 5: Analysis of Structured Hypothesis
Executive Summary:
By using the structured analysis for competing hypothesis (SACH), it has been determined that it is likely that the Republic of Turkey will remain stable over the next 24 months. This determination was made using the PARC 2.0 software. The key factors contributing to continued Turkish stability are political factors. Another factor contributing to stability is the presence of a relatively strong economy. The key sources of instability are military and geographical factors.
Discussion:
Two sets of opposing hypothesis were tested in order to arrive at the conclusion. The first hypothesis used was 1) Turkey will remain stable for the next 24 months. The second hypothesis tested was 2) Turkey will not remain stable for the next 24 months. These hypotheses were tested according evidence which was weighted according to its relevance, as well as the credibility of the source of that evidence. This evidence was then used to either prove or disprove each competing hypothesis individually. These individual hypotheses were then scored and tallied by the ACH software which provided an overall answer as to which hypothesis was more likely to occur. According to the software analysis the first hypothesis was more likely to occur than the second hypothesis, which means that according to the analysis it is likely that Turkey will remain stable for the next 24 months.
The most significant factor which contributed to the analysis that Turkey is likely to remain stable for the next 24 months was the political factor. The Turkish political system is known as a paramilitary republic. This is a form of democratic government which consists of a unicameral legislature which is directly elected by popular vote. The legislature then elects a president whom appoints the general staff of the military as well as is responsible for the executive branch of government and all of its various agencies through an appointed cabinet. The military maintains a large degree of autonomy and has traditionally acted as a guardian of the country’s secular tradition.
Recent political developments have had a stabilizing effect on Turkey. The first of these developments is the vast popular support that was shown for the incumbent AK party in the recent 2011 elections. According to BBC “With 99% of ballots counted, the AKP had 50% of the vote, which local media said translated to 326 seats in parliament.”1. The incumbent AKP is led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Over the past ten years of AKP rule turkey has seen a revitalized economy, seen its status rise in the Middle East as well as in Europe, and has served as a democratic model for the region.
In recent years the civilian government has gained tighter controls over the military which has further stabilized the country politically. Turkey has had a long history of frequent military intervention in the political system. The Turkish military has acted as a guardian to the country’s secular traditions and has
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seen fit to oust governments that it has deemed a threat to those traditions. In 2010 a coup plan was uncovered by Turkish government authorities, the government responded with the “arrest and detention of more than 50 current and former senior officers.”2 This action was significant and highlighted the growing strength of Turkish democracy. The AKP has revitalized the Turkish economy, championed traditional Islamic conservatism and values, as a result has enjoyed overwhelming public support. This public support has given the AKP led civilian government the confidence to challenge the military for the first time in the history of the Turkish republic. It is highly unlikely that another military coup will remove the current civilian government in the near future.
The greatest threats to stability in Turkey are military threats. For nearly thirty years the Turkish Military Forces have been fighting a Kurdish insurgency led by a terrorist organization called the PKK. PKK terrorist attacks have recently destabilized the Southeastern Hakkari province with a series of well organized attacks. The PKK has become a more organized and more sophisticated threat in recent years and has adopted several of the tactics employed by other terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda in Iraq. According to Karen Kaya in regard to recent changes in the tactics employed by the PKK “These include the use of simultaneous coordinated attacks (particularly vehicle attacks); suicide bombings; use of the Internet to broadcast videos of hostages; and sophisticated information operations.”3 This change in tactics suggests an increase in the strength and resources of the organization. It is likely that the PKK will remain a significant source of instability over the next 24 months.
Turkish relationship with Syria has become toxic over the past few years. Turkish hydropower projects to dam the Euphrates River have threatened to restrict the water flow of the river into neighboring Syria as well as Iraq. The Euphrates River is the most significant source of fresh water in Syria. Having control over the Euphrates rivers water flow would give Turkey the ability to significantly reduce Syrian access to a vital resource. Another issue that has caused recent tensions between Turkey and Syria is the Syrian government’s recent violent crackdown on civilian protestors.4 Another issue threatening relations between Turkey and Syria is the presence of between 70,000 to 100,000 Syrian refugees that have fled into turkey since the Syrian government crackdown began. The Syrian issue is a significant threat to regional stability.
Comments:
The results of the SACH file were examined individually; those results were tallied and used to calculate which factors were the most contributing factors to both sets of hypotheses. Of these factors examined the most significant threats to stability were found to be the Syrian Crisis, as well as the continued Kurdish conflict. The Turkish political system is the most prevalent force of stability, and political factors reinforcing overall stability outweighed almost all sources of instability.
Source Reliability: 7
Source Confidence: 7
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1 BBC News. (June 12, 2011). Turkey ruling party wins election with reduced majority. Retrived from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13740147. 2 Warner, Margret. (Feb. 25, 2010). Turkish Military Leaders Released in Coup Probe. Retrieved from http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/jan-june10/turkey_02-25.html. 3 Kaya, Karen. (2009). PKK’s Changing Tactics and Rhetoric Mimic Insurgencies, Al-Qaida.
Retrieved from http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/PKKs-Changing-Tactics.pdf. 4 The New York Times. (Feb. 22, 2013). Turkey: Breaking News. Retrived from
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/turkey/index.html
19
Evidence 35
Name: Males attain significantly higher literacy rates than males due to certain self imposed and culturally imposed limitations of female education in some more fundamentalist segments of the population.
Type: Social
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 34
Name: 2.9 of GDP spent on education.
Type: Social
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 33
Name: 87.4% of citizens over the age of 15 can read and write.
Type: Social
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 32
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Name: Average length of education males 12 years, and females 11 years.
Type: Social
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 31
Name: Ethnicity, Turkish 70-75%, Kurdish 18%, other 7-12%
Type: Social
Credibility: HIGH
Relevance: HIGH
Notes:
Evidence 30
Name: Religion 99.8% Muslim, mostly Sunni.
Type: Social
Credibility: HIGH
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 29
Name: population 79,749,461.
Type: Social
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Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: LOW
Notes:
Evidence 28
Name: Turkey shares a land border with Greece, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Armenia, and Georgia.
Type: Geography
Credibility: HIGH
Relevance: LOW
Notes:
Evidence 27
Name: Turkey has a land area of 783,562 km. Of that 29.81% of that is arable land.
Type: Geography
Credibility: HIGH
Relevance: LOW
Notes:
Evidence 26
Name: Environmental hazards include severe seismic activity, water pollution, air pollution, and deforestation.
Type: Geography
Credibility: HIGH
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Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 25
Name: Turkey has three active volcanos Ararat, Nemut Dagi, Tendurek Dagi.
Type: Geography
Credibility: HIGH
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 24
Name: Natural resources include arable land, hydropower, and mineral resources such as iron ore, coal, copper, chromium, etc.
Type: Geography
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 23
Name: Turkey is planning launch of it's first man made satillite in May 2013.
Type: Technology
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
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Notes:
Evidence 22
Name: Turkey has a modern transportation infrastructure. Includes 89 paved airports and 313,151 km of paved roadways.
Type: Technology
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 21
Name: Turkey has a large and diverse telecommunications network. There are over 15 million landlines and 65 million cellular lines in Turkey.
Type: Technology
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 20
Name: Turkish radio and television corperation operates several different television networks. There are also over 300 private and local television stations natiowide.
Type: Technology
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
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Notes:
Evidence 19
Name: Turkey has over 27 million internet users.
Type: Technology
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 18
Name: Tensions have risen in recent years between Turkey, and neighboring Iraq and Syria due to Turkish hydroelectricity projects which threaten to limit the flow of the Euphrates River.
Type: Technology
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 17
Name: Over 25% of Turkey's workforce is employed in the agricultural industry.
Type: Economy
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
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Evidence 16
Name: In recent year Turkey's economy has been making a significant shift toward services industries.
Type: Economy
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 15
Name: Has economically stable trade partners (U.S., Russia, China, Germany, France, Italy, etc.).
Type: Economy
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 14
Name: Turkey has the world’s 17th largest economy.
Type: Economy
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
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Evidence 13
Name: Turkey has maintained a strong 8.5% GDP real growth rate.
Type: Economy
Credibility: HIGH
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 12
Name: Turkey spends 5.3% of its GDP on defense, this level of expenditure ranks 15th globally.
Type: Military
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 11
Name: manpower fit for military service, males ages 16-49; 17,664,510; females ages 16-49, 17,340,816.
Type: Military
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 10
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Name: Manpower avaliable for military service, males ages 16-49; 21,079,071; females ages 16-49; 20,558,696.
Type: Military
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 9
Name: NATO has recently installed a MIM-104 patriot missile system in Turkey to defend against any possible missile attack from Syria.
Type: Military
Credibility: HIGH
Relevance: HIGH
Notes:
Evidence 8
Name: the Hakkari Province has been recently destabilized by a series of attacks by PKK rebels on government building and military installations.
Type: Military
Credibility: HIGH
Relevance: HIGH
Notes:
Evidence 7
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Name: The Turkish government faces a continuing threat to stability from Kurdish PKK terrorists.
Type: Military
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: HIGH
Notes:
Evidence 6
Name: Turkey's influence in the Middle East is at an all time high. Since the Arab spring movement many observers have looked to the Turkish model of secular democracy as a model for the Middle East.
Type: Political
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 5
Name: Relations between Syria and Turkey have degraded in recent months. The violent crackdown of Syrian government forces on protestors have forced around 70,000 to 100,000 refugees to flee into Turkey.
Type: Political
Credibility: HIGH
Relevance: HIGH
Notes:
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Evidence 4
Name: Recent reforms in Turkey have increased the ability of the elected government to control the Turkish military.
Type: Political
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: HIGH
Notes:
Evidence 3
Name: The revelation of a plotted military coup called operation sledgehammer was thwarted in 2010. This led to the arrest of several top military officials. This both showed the strength of Turkish democracy.
Type: Political
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: MEDIUM
Notes:
Evidence 2
Name: The United States has highlighted the vital nature of the U.S.- Turkish relationship. President Barack Obama made the Turkish-U.S. bilateral relationship his top foreign policy priority upon taking office in 2009.
Type: Political
Credibility: HIGH
Relevance: HIGH
Notes:
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Evidence 1
Name: Recent elections have reaffirmed public support of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. His party AKP won 50% of the popular vote.
Type: Political
Credibility: MEDIUM
Relevance: HIGH
Notes:
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Analyst Contact
Information
Michael S. Geer II
123 Shields Rd.
Boardman OH, 44512
(330)423-8301
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