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Mexico’s Mid-‐Century Strategy
Claudia Octaviano Villasana, Phd General Coordinator for Climate Change
and Low-‐Carbon Development
Long term low emission development strategy – part II, NDC webinar series
February 1st, 2017
Mexico’s NDC and MCS
Mexico was the first developing country to submit its INDC and also its Mid-‐Century Strategy to the UNFCCC.
hDps://www.gob.mx/inecc/documentos/mexico-‐s-‐climate-‐change-‐mid-‐century-‐strategy?idiom=es
Climate change policy in Mexico
2013 2012
General Climate Change Law
Climate Change Fund Carbon Tax
on fossil fuels
2013
Interministerial Comission for CC (15 ministries) NATIONAL
CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY
CC Council
2014
SPECIAL PROGRAM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 2014-2018
Special Climate Change Program
2014-2018
SECRETARÍA DE MEDIO AMBIENTE Y RECURSOS NATURALES
SEMARNAT SEMARNAT MINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT
AND NATURAL RESOURCES
2015
CC National System
iNDC 2020-2030
ENERGY REFORM
COP 21 PARIS
AGREEMENT
2015 2016
Ratification of Paris
BUR
National Institute of Ecology & CC
Carbon market pilot
Emissions Registry
COP22 Marrakesh
MCS
6NC
ObjecIve & Scope
The NaNonal Climate Change Strategy is the guiding instrument of the naNonal climate change policy, both in the medium and long-‐term, to face the impacts of climate change and to transiNon towards a compeNNve, sustainable low-‐carbon economy. As the guiding instrument and based on best available informaNon, it describes the strategic lines of acNon guiding policies of the three government levels. It also aims to encourage social parNcipaNon and co-‐responsibility. More broadly, the long-‐term climate strategy aims to address climate change along with naNonal prioriNes, and to contribute in building the Mexico we envision in the long-‐term.
The Strategy does not intend to define concrete short-‐term acIons or specific responsible federal insItuIons. At the federal level, the Special Climate Change Program will define, for each six-‐year term, the objecNves and specific acNons for miNgaNon and adaptaNon, as well as allocate human and financial resources to achieve these goals. State and Municipal Climate Change Programs at the local level will similarly describe specific plans of acNon for the short-‐term.
5
AdaptaNon goals Mexico’s NaIonal Climate Change Strategy 10-‐20-‐40 Vision.
A2. Reduce the vulnerability and increase the resilience of strategic infrastructure and producNon systems
A1. Social vulnerability reducNon and increase resilience to climate impacts
A3. ConservaNon and sustainable use of natural resources to maintain ecosystem services and nature stewardship
MiIgaIon
M1. Accelerate clean energy energy transiNon
M2. Energy efficiency and sustainable consumpNon
M3. Sustainable ciNes with mobility systems, integrated waste management, and low-‐carbon footprint buildings
M4. Sustainable agriculture and forestry to increase and preserve natural carbon sinks
M5. Reduce emissions of Short-‐Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs), with high co-‐benefits in health and well-‐being
1. Cross-‐cu\ng, arNculated, coordinated and inclusive climate policies and acNons 2. Develop climate specific fiscal policies and design market-‐based economic and financial instruments 3. Implement a pla]orm for research, innovaNon, development and adopNon of climate technologies, and strengthen insNtuNonal capaciNes 4. Promote the development of a climate culture 5. Implement mechanisms for Measurement, ReporNng, and VerificaNon (MRV) and Monitoring and EvaluaNon (M&E) 6. Strengthen strategic cooperaNon and internaNonal leadership
AdaptaIon Cross-‐cu\ng issues
Strategic lines of acIon and cross-‐cuOng issues
7
AdaptaNon goals
SOCIAL VULNERABILITY ECOYSTEMS BASED ADAPTATION STRATEGIC INFRASTRUCTURE
AND PRODUCTIVE SECTORS
Reduce by 50% the number of vulnerable municipaliIes or municipios (160 municipios) § Include a climate, gender and human rights approach in all of the territorial planning and risk management instruments
§ Increase financial resources for Disasters prevenNon vs. Disasters aDenNon
§ Establish regulaNons for land use in risky areas
§ Integrated watershed management to guarantee access to water
§ Ensure social parNcipaNon and training in social adaptaNon policy
Achieve a 0% deforestaIon rate in 2030
§ ReforestaNon of upper, mid and lower basins, taking into consideraNon the areas naNve species
§ Increase ecological connecNvity and carbon sequestraNon through conservaNon and restoraNon
§ Increase carbon sequestraNon and coastal protecNon through conservaNon of coastal ecosystems
§ REDD+ acNon synergies
• Ensure water management in its different purposes (agricultural, ecological, urban, industrial, domesNc)
Install early warning and risk management systems in all three government levels
§ Guarantee and monitor industrial and urban wastewater treatments in seDlements larger tan 500,000 inhabitants
§ Ensure strategic infrastructure security
• Include climate change criteria in agricultural and livestock programs
• Apply the specificaNon norm of environmental protecNon and adaptaNon in coastal touristy real estate developments
• Incorporate adaptaNon criteria in public investment projects that take into consideraNon construcNon and maintenance infrastructure
INDC AdaptaIon goals
8
AdaptaNon goals AdaptaIon long-‐term strategy
Municipali4es most vulnerable to climate change Source: (SEMARNAT, 2013b)
Mangrove restora4on to protect coastline in Alvarado, Veracruz Source: (INECC, 2015) Social par4cipa4on and gender
Source: (SEMARNAT, 2013b)
Comparison of federal budget allocated to preven4on vs damage funds
Source: INECC & SEMARNAT, 2015. Mexico´s Biannual Report to the UNFCCC. http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/non-annex_i_parties/ica/technical_support_for_the_ica_process/application/pdf/executive_summary.pdf
NaIonal GHG Emissions Inventory of México (baseline year 2013)
Mexico’s INDC
UncondiIonal goal for 2030
CondiIonal goal for 2030
Baseline
Transport Electricity
ResidenNal & commercial Oil & Gas Industry
Agriculture Waste
Subtotal LULUCF
Total
GHG MiNgaNon goals Million ton CO2e
UncondiNonal
11
Electricity Transport Oil & Gas
• 35% clean energy by 2024 • 43% clean energy by 2030 • ReducNon of grid losses
• Fuel economy standards • Electric & hybrid vehicles • Integrated public transport • Intercity trains
• CogeneraNon • Methane reducNon • EOR-‐CCS project
ResidenIal & Commercial Industry Agriculture
• Standards for energy efficiency appliances • Stoves for rural communiNes • 5 GW distributed PV generaNon
• SubsNtuNon of heavy fuels for natural gas and other alternaNve fuels.
• Sugar mills NAMA • Cement NAMA
• PromoNon of biopesNcides • ReducNon of agriculture
“burning “ pracNce • Standard for biodigestors • Standard for agriculture
machines emissions control
Waste Forestry
• Zero methane emissions from landfields
• Biogas use in ciNes >50 thousand people
• Improve water treatment
• Net zero deforestaNon • Sustainable management of
forest plantaNons
INDC miIgaIon measures by sector
Source: MIT 2009
Modeling 2050 emissions projecIon
MIT EPPA MODEL – MEXICO study
Modeling 2050 emissions projecIon
• Scenarios: – Business as usual. EvoluNon of the economy without imposing climate or clean energy policy constraints.
– NDC policy. ReducNon of 22% of economy-‐wide GHGs by 2030, and 51% of black carbon. For 2050, 50% reducIon of GHGs, compared to 2000 emissions. For assumpNons regarding the rest of the world, we consider that all countries deliver on their NDC and that by 2050, global miNgaNon reaches 50% below 2010 level. We also allowed for domesNc trading of GHGs. InternaNonal emissions trading was not simulated.
Modeling 2050 emissions projecIon
• Scenarios: – NDC more ambiIon. ReducNon of 36% of economy-‐wide GHGs in the economy by 2030, and 70% of black carbon. For 2050, the MCS goal simulated a trajectory aqer 2030 that reaches a 50% reducNon of GHGs, compared to 2000 emissions.
– This scenario has addiNonal constraints to simulate a minimum of 50% of clean electricity producIon by 2025, in line with Mexico’s energy transiNon law, and a 40% methane reducIon considering coordinated acNon in North America.
– For assumpNons regarding the rest of the world, same assumpNons as previous scenario were used.
GHG long-‐term emissions projecIon
Source: Mexico’s MCS, 2016.
GHG long-‐term emissions projecIon
Long-‐term energy projecIons
Electricity mix
LULUCF analysis (CBM-‐CFS3)
Models for adaptaIon studies
REA (Reliability
Ensemble Averaging)
WEAP
Ceres (Maize)
Coffee Econometric
Aquacrop
Maxent
• SEMARNAT and CICC will review the NaNonal Climate Change Strategy at least once every ten years regarding miNgaNon policy, and every six years regarding adaptaNon policy. Corresponding scenarios, projecNons, objecNves, and goals must then be updated, and deviaNons from previously stated projecNons must be explained.
• Based upon these reviews and the evaluaNons results conducted by the INECC’s CoordinaNon for EvaluaNon and the Climate Change Council, the NaNonal Climate Change Strategy might be updated. The Special Climate Change Program and the State Programs must be adjusted to consider these updates. Under no circumstance will the reviews and updates lessen the goals, projecNons, and objecNves previously stated.
• The CICC may propose and approve adjustments or modificaNons to scenarios, trajectories, acNons, or goals comprised in the NaNonal Strategy when:
• Mexico will resubmit its MCS to the UNFCCC, if as a result of the evaluaNon process new informaNon becomes available germane to the ConvenNon and the global stocktake referred in the Paris Agreement.
EvaluaIon and updaIng of MCS
Claudia Octaviano Villasana, PhD General Coordinator for Climate Change and Low Carbon Development National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change INECC Periférico Sur 5000, 6to. Piso Col. Insurgentes Cuicuilco Delegación Coyoacán 04530 Ciudad de México * [email protected] Website: http://www.inecc.gob.mx/
