FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY This report must be read with the disclaimer, disclosure and analyst certifications on the last page

Senior Analyst: Mark Rubinstein rubinstein@metropol.ru Junior Analyst: Dmitry Makarov makarov_d@metropol.ru

SBERBANK Fair value and recommendation upgrade

Bloomberg (Comm.) SBER RU Bloomberg (Pref.) SBERP RU Rating BUY Fair Value (Comm.), USD 2.85 Current Price (Comm.), USD 2.33 Fair Value (Pref.), USD 1.73 Current Price (Pref.), USD 1.24 Market Cap, USD mn 51,539

Trading multiples P/E (x) P/BV (x)

2010E 2011E 2010E 2011ESberbank 17.4 9.2 1.8 1.5 Traded bank average: Russia 12.1 6.9 0.9 0.7 BRIC 11.7 9.7 1.7 1.7 Turkey 9.1 7.7 2.2 1.8 CEE Countries 15.8 11.1 2.1 1.9

Source: Bloomberg, IFC Metropol

Share price performance, % change vs. 1 Jan 2009

-50%0%

50%100%150%200%250%

Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09

MSCI EM/Commercial banksRTSSberbank

Buy22%Upside

12 October 2009

MARKETING MATERIAL

RUSSIAN EQUITY RESEARCH: BANKING

Sales Moscow: +7 (495) 933 3303 Research Moscow: +7 (495) 933 3316 Sales & Trading London: +44 (207) 439 6881

Fair value raised by 152% and upgrade to Buy We are raising our fair value on Sberbank (the Bank) common stock from theprevious USD 1.13 to USD 2.85 per share, or by 152%. Our new valuationimplies 22% upside and we recommend Sberbank as a Buy.

The increase in fair value results from an upward revision in our projection forcore revenue growth combined with a lower cost of equity. In addition, wehave cut our forecast growth in operating expenses based on the Bank’scontinuing success in reducing costs.

Planned management option program could trigger share buy-back The Bank recently announced that it has plans to launch an option programfor senior and middle management. We estimate that the Bank could have topurchase up to 1.5% of its outstanding stock from the open market toimplement the program.

Prospective London GDR program could further boost investor interest in the stock Last fall the Bank put its London GDR program plans on hold. We believethat in the near future the Bank could resume preparations for the program.Earlier the Bank indicated that GDR program could be in the range of USD 5-6bn. A GDR program would make the Bank’s stock accessible to the largegroup of international institutional investors who cannot buy local shares.

Financial crisis and economic downturn gave the Bank a unique opportunity to cut costs and improve efficiency The Bank has already cut 3.6% of its work force over the first half of this year.For the full year, headcount cuts are expected to reach 10%. The Bank nowis also in the process of closing around 150 unprofitable branches. If not forthe crisis, these steps could have been viewed as “anti-social” and stoppedby the government.

Summary financials, RUB mn

Net income Change, y-o-y Assets Change, y-o-y ROAE ROAA

2008 97,746 -8% 6,736,482 37% 14.2% 1.7% 2009E 15,641 -84% 6,692,238 -1% 2.1% 0.2% 2010E 85,290 445% 7,461,429 12% 10.6% 1.2% 2011E 162,253 90% 8,432,130 13% 17.6% 2.0%

12 October 2009

2

Summary and investment conclusions .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3

COE reduced due to lower country-specific risk premium and discount reflecting potential government support ............................................................................... 3

Cost cutting program successfully implemented ................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Competitive advantages and share price drivers .................................................................................................................................................................................. 4

Renewed growth in deposits would strongly benefit the Bank .............................................................................................................................................................. 4

Play on Russian economic recovery ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5

Acquisition of BTA Bank at a P/BV of less than 0.4x would be value accretive .................................................................................................................................... 6

Planned management option program could trigger share buy-back ................................................................................................................................................... 6

Prospective London GDR program could significantly boost investor interest in the stock .................................................................................................................. 6

Main risk: rising NPLs ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 7

Recent IFRS results – 2Q and 1H 09 .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9

Financial outlook .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12

Valuation .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16

Appendix .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 20

Sberbank’s recent financial results ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20

Sberbank’s financial results forecast ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21

Table of Contents

3

Summary and investment conclusions We are raising our fair value on Sberbank common stock from the previous USD 1.13 to USD 2.85 per share, or by 152%. Our new valuation implies 22% upside and we recommend Sberbank as a Buy.

An upward revision in forecast core revenue growth combines with a reduced cost of equity to support our increase in fair value. In addition, we have cut forecast growth in operating expenses based on the Bank’s continuing success in reducing costs.

Figure 1: Core changes to our forecast

Previous model Current model Change 2009E 2010E 2011E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2009E 2010E 2011E P&L forecast Net interest income, RUB bn 525.7 517.6 511.8 488.5 541.5 612.7 -7.1% 4.6% 19.7% Loan loss provisioning charge, RUB bn -324.0 -219.7 -96.4 -375.0 -339.6 -304.5 15.7% 54.6% 215.8% Net fees & commissions income, RUB bn 105.0 125.9 148.5 99.5 119.6 141.4 -5.2% -5.0% -4.8% Total operating expenses, RUB bn -270.7 -316.1 -378.1 -232.2 -253.2 -289.0 -14.2% -19.9% -23.6% Net income, RUB mn 47.7 132.6 171.3 15.6 85.3 162.3 -67.2% -35.7% -5.3% Loan portfolio quality NPL, % of loans 7.0% 6.0% 4.0% 10.0% 12.0% 10.5% 3.0% 6.0% 6.5% Loan loss provisioning charge, % of loans 5.17% 2.9% 1.1% 6.8% 5.5% 4.3% 1.6% 2.6% 3.2% Loan loss reserves, % of loans 7.0% 6.0% 5.2% 10.3% 14.5% 16.8% 3.3% 8.5% 11.6% Loan-loss reserves/NPL, % 100.0% 100.0% 130.0% 103.2% 120.6% 159.7% 3.2% 20.6% 29.7%

Source: IFC Metropol estimates, Sberbank

COE reduced due to lower country-specific risk premium and discount reflecting potential government support Russia’s country-specific risk premium has declined significantly both over the past 12 months and in the five months since we last valued Sberbank. The yield on Russia’s most liquid Russia-30 Eurobond declined from 10.2% in January of this year to 7.5% at the end of May, and finally to 5.4% as of 9 October, 2009.

In addition, in accordance to adjusting the COE for changes in Russia’s country specific risk premium, we have applied a 1pp discount to the COE to reflect the strong possibility of potential government support for Sberbank. Consequently, the COE fell from 15.2% in the previous model to 10.2% currently.

Figure 2: Company-specific risk premium calculation COE calculation

Previous model

Current model

Previous model

Current model

Liquidity 0.0% 0.0% Risk-free rate: 10-year US Treasury yield, 1M average 2.9% 3.4%

Transparency/corporate governance 0.0% 0.0% Yield difference: 10-year US Treasury/Russia-30, 1M average 5.3% 2.8%

Debt/financing issues 1.0% 0.0% Overall risk-free rate (adjusted for the Russia’s country-specific risk premium) 8.2% 6.2%

(Government support) 0.0% -1.0% Standard equity risk premium 5.0% 5.0%

Company-specific risk associated with growth in NPLs 1.0% 0.0% Company-specific risk premium 2.0% -1.0%

Total company-specific risk premium 2.0% -1.0% Total cost of equity 15.2% 10.2% Source: IFC Metropol estimates Source: IFC Metropol estimates

12 October 2009

4

Cost cutting program successfully implemented The financial crisis and economic downturn have served the Bank a unique opportunity to launch an aggressive cost cutting program, as measures that could have been viewed as “antisocial” by both the government and the general public became more palatable in the crisis environment. The cost cutting program was a very necessary step in improving efficiency. The Bank cut 3.6% of its workforce, or 5,800 employees, over the first half of the year and plans to bring headcount reductions to 10% by the end of 2009. The Bank also plans to close 100-150 unprofitable branches or 1% of the total number of branches.

The ongoing effort has already resulted in significant improvements to the cost/income ratio, which declined by 14.4pps to 36% over the first half of the year. Going forward, we expect a cost/income ratio of 37% for the full year 2009 and 36% in 2010 vs our previous expectations of 41% and 47% respectively.

Competitive advantages and share price drivers Renewed growth in deposits would strongly benefit the Bank Retail deposits have begun to grow again, reversing the October-December 2008 outflow which saw RUB 1 trillion in customer funds flow out of the system amid the global financial and economic crisis and RUB devaluation.

In April, retail deposits across the sector posted the first real monthly increase in 2009 and have continued to rise every month since, reaching RUB 6.7 trillion at the end of August according to the CBR. Corporate deposits demonstrated a similar pattern, rising by 5% year-to-date for the first eight months of the year.

Figure 3: Deposits change, % m-o-m

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09

Retail deposits change, m-o-mCorporate accounts change, m-o-m

Source: CBR, IFC Metropol estimates

We argue that the return of deposits to the banking sector, both retail and corporate, after the earlier flight from the system would benefit the Bank more than its competitors.

Customer accounts, including corporate and retail term and current accounts, constituted 81% of the Bank’s overall funding at the end of the first half, according to the Bank’s IFRS reporting. This was substantially above the average of 55% for the sector and much higher than the 36% for VTB, the Bank’s closest competitor.

5

Figure 4:

Aggregate deposits, % of funding

81% 78%

67%59%

43%36%

31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Sberbank Vozrozhdenie Bank St.Petersburg

Uralsib Bank ofMoscow

VTB MDM Bank

Source: Company data

We argue that deposit growth across the sector should continue to be driven by slowing inflation, a strengthening RUB, high interest rates and a return of confidence in the banking sector. CPI inflation in Russia has slowed significantly this year. As of the first week of September, prices had risen by 8.1% since the beginning of the year vs 9.8% for the same period last year. And the RUB has gained 17% since its low of RUB/USD 36.43 on 10 February 2009.

Play on Russian economic recovery The IMF now forecasts that the Russian economy should grow by 1.5% y-o-y in 2010 , while our in-house forecast calls for a much faster rate of 3% y-o-y growth. The latest economic data shows that the Russian economy has hit bottom and started to recover. From July of this year, GDP dynamics turned positive on a m-o-m basis. According to the Ministry of Economic Development (MED), GDP rose by 0.4% m-o-m in June and 0.5% m-o-m in July , while remained flat in August.

Sberbank’s corporate loan book, broken down by sector, very closely mirrors the composition of Russia’s GDP.

Figure 5:

Sberbank loan portfolio breakdown and Russia’s GDP composition

7%

11%39%

17%26%

Oil&Gas and Industrials ConstructionAgriculture Trading and servicesOther

Sberbank Sberbank

17%

58%

4%

7%

14%

Russia's GDP

Source: Sberbank, Rosstat

12 October 2009

6

Acquisition of BTA Bank at a P/BV of less than 0.4x would be value accretive

Sberbank said that it would announce a decision regarding the purchase of BTA Bank in November. In our view, Sberbank is wisely awaiting a settlement between BTA and its creditors before making a final decision. BTA Bank, formerly the largest bank in Kazakhstan, defaulted on USD 10.3bn in debt earlier this year and has been nationalized by the Kazakh government. On 6 September, BTA offered a final debt restructuring plan to creditors under which investors would face losses of up to 82% of the face value of their loans.

BTA Bank remains saddled with poor quality assets, and 29% of outstanding loans are currently classified as non-performing. In our view, significant further deterioration is likely.

However, acquiring BTA Bank would give Sberbank a significant foothold in the Central Asia’s largest economy. BTA has 290 domestic branches and even after a 49% decline in assets since the beginning of the year is Kazakhstan’s second largest bank with assets of USD 16.5bn.

In addition, BTA Bank has a controlling 34% stake in Turkey’s Sekerbank, which is among Turkey’s 15 largest banks with assets of USD 8.6bn as of 1H 09. Thus, acquiring BTA could also give Sberbank access to the fast growing Turkish financial sector.

We estimate a purchase price that would value BTA at less than 0.4x P/BV would be value added for Sberbank, as it would likely price in further downside risks to BTA’s asset quality.

Planned management option program could trigger share buy-back Sberbank plans to launch an option program for senior and middle management in the near future, according to the Bank. Speaking on the sidelines at the International Economic Summit in Sochi on 21 September, Sberbank chairman German Gref said that the Bank “might buy shares in the open market” for the program. The size of the program could require Sberbank to buy back as much as 1% of outstanding shares, according to our estimates.

Prospective London GDR program could significantly boost investor interest in the stock Due to market conditions, Sberbank put plans to initiate a GDR program in London on hold last fall. Given the improving outlook on the market, we now believe the Bank could resume this process.

According to the original plan announced in Spring 2008, the GDR program could be as much as USD 5-6bn. The Bank plans to use existing shares for conversion into GDRs.

Sberbank stock has been a clear leader in trading volume among Russian stocks over the past three months, with an average daily trading volume of RUB 25.3bn or 555 mn shares on average.

7

Figure 6:

3M average trading volume leaders, RUB bn

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Sberbank Gazprom GMK Sberbank pref. Lukoil

Source: Bloomberg

Main risk: rising NPLs Non-performing loans (NPLs), or aggregate loans overdue for more than 90 days, grew significantly in the second quarter to RUB 351bn, according to IFRS reporting. The proportion of NPLs to total loans climbed 6.4% at the end of the period versus 3.6% at the end of the first quarter.

However, growth in NPLs across the sector slowed significantly beginning in the third quarter and consequently we feel comfortable with our 2009 year-end forecast of an NPL level of no more than 10%.

Figure 7: Russian banking sector’s NPL dynamics

9%

6%8%

13%

17%

19%

9%

7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-090

200

400

600

800

1000

1200NPL, RUB bnNPL change, % m-o-m

Source: CBR

Going forward, we expect NPLs to reach 12% in 2010. We also estimate that the coverage ratio will not fall below 100% by the end of 2009 and could increase to 121% in 2010. The Bank would need to provision RUB 375bn in 2009 and RUB 340bn in 2010 to maintain these coverage levels, according to our estimates.

12 October 2009

8

Figure 8: Sberbank’s loan portfolio quality

9.8%

1.8%

9.6% 11.2%

15.7%13.5%

9.9%

3.8%

160%

121%103%

213%

0%

7%

14%

21%

28%

35%

2008 2009E 2010E 2011E0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%NPLs, % of gross loans (LHS)Provisions, % of gross loans (LHS)Coverage ratio (RHS)

Source: Bank data, IFC Metropol estimates

We conducted a sensitivity analysis to show how a sharper deterioration in loan quality would affect the Bank’s earnings and capital adequacy ratio, assuming permanent reserves/loan losses of 103% and 121% in 2009 and 2010 respectively.

Figure 9: NPL sensitivity analysis

Base case scenario Pessimistic case scenario Worst case scenario 2009E 2010E 2009E 2010E 2009E 2010E

NPL, % of loan book 10.00% 12.00% 11.50% 13.50% 13.00% 15.00%Loan loss provisioning charge, % of loans 6.8% 5.5% 8.3% 6.5% 9.8% 7.5%Loan loss provisioning charge, RUB bn -375.0 -339.6 -457.7 -401.3 -540.4 -463.1Loan loss reserves, % of loans 10.3% 14.5% 11.7% 16.6% 13.1% 18.8%Provisions to NPL, % 103.2% 120.6% 102.1% 123.3% 101.1% 125.3%Net income/net loss, RUB bn 15.6 85.3 -50.5 35.9 -116.7 -13.5Capital adequacy ratio 17.8% 17.0% 16.8% 15.5% 15.8% 14.0%

Source: IFC Metropol estimates

Our estimates suggest that for provisioning charges to fully erode net income, provisions would have to reach 7.2% of total loans in both 2009 and 2010 respectively.

We also estimate that NPLs would have to reach 19.5% in 2009 and 20.0% in 2010 before the Bank would need to raise additional capital in order to comply with required capital adequacy ratios.

9

Recent IFRS results – 2Q and 1H 09 Income statement

Figure 10: IFRS income statement selected figures, RUB mn

1Q 09 2Q 09 q-o-q growth, % 1H 08 1H 09 y-o-y

growth, %

Interest income 195,118 208,126 6.7% 278,089 403,244 45.0% Interest expense -79,636 -79,093 -0.7% -109,744 -158,729 44.6% Net Interest Income (NII) 115,482 129,033 11.7% 168,345 244,515 45.2% Provisions for loan impairment -90,755 -100,802 11.1% -17,278 -191,557 1008.7% Net FX trading gains (losses) 8,223 1,037 -87.4% 5,403 9,260 71.4% Net gains (losses) from securities operations -4,400 7,614 n/a -619 3,214 n/a Net fee and commission income 22,065 23,757 7.7% 37,815 45,822 21.2% Operating revenue 53,933 64,283 19.2% 196,076 118,216 -39.7% Operating expenses -53,574 -57,583 7.5% -108,600 -111,157 2.4% Operating income 359 6,700 1766.3% 87,476 7,059 -91.9% Net income 583 5,427 830.9% 67,012 6,010 -91.0% Net interest margin 7.8% 8.6% 0.7ppts 7.1% 8.3% 1.2ppts Cost/Income ratio 37.0% 34.9% -2.1ppts 50.9% 35.9% -15.0ppts ROAE (annualized) 0.3% 2.9% 2.6ppts 20.2% 3.2% -16.9ppts

Source: Sberbank

Net income beat our expectations

On 10 September, Sberbank reported 2Q and 1H 09 IFRS results. Net income in 2Q 09 significantly increased compared to 1Q 09, reaching RUB 5.4bn versus RUB 583mn.

The results seem strong in the current environment and exceeded our expectations of RUB 4.6bn net income in the second quarter.

Core revenues demonstrated strong 11% q-o-q growth

The Bank’s core revenues, or net interest income before provisions, net fees and commission income, grew by 11% q-o-q to RUB 153bn in 2Q 09.

Interest income increased by 7% q-o-q to RUB 208bn on the back of a 0.6ppts increase in the average lending rate to 13.8%. Average interest earning assets were flat at RUB 6 trillion over the period.

Interest expense decreased by 1% q-o-q to RUB 79bn, driven by a 3.6% q-o-q decline in average interest bearing liabilities to RUB 5.7 trillion. Meanwhile, the average borrowing rate remained unchanged at 5.4%. As a result, net interest income in the second quarter grew by 11.7% q-o-q to RUB 129bn.

Net fee and commission income, another important source of revenue, increased by 7.7% q-o-q to RUB 23.8bn in the second quarter, or 14.4% of total operating revenues before provisions.

A higher average lending rate combined with a flat average borrowing rate over the second quarter resulted in the net interest spread widening from 7.8% in the first quarter to 8.4% in the second quarter. Net interest margin also increased by 0.7ppts to 8.6% in the second quarter.

Loan-loss provisioning charges continued to grow

In 2Q 09, the Bank continued to build a protective cushion against deteriorating loan quality. The provisioning charge jumped by 11% q-o-q to RUB 101bn.

Over the same period, the proportion of non-performing loans in the total loan portfolio almost doubled from 3.5% in the first quarter to 6.4%, or RUB 351bn, at the end of the second quarter.

12 October 2009

10

Moreover, the Bank reported 10% of total loan portfolio as restructured loans, which we consider to be very risky. The ratio of provisions to overdue loans declined from 152% in 1Q 09 to a still safe 111% over the 2Q 09.

RUB 8.7bn gain from securities trading and FX operations supported net income in 2Q 09

Income from securities operations increased to RUB 7.6bn vs. a loss of RUB 4.4bn in 1Q 09. The increase resulted from a restructuring of the securities portfolio, including reducing low-yield OFZ bonds from 45% of the portfolio in 1Q 09 to 39% in 2Q 09. An increase in the share of corporate bonds from 5% to 27% also provided a boost.

Income from foreign exchange trading showed an 87% q-o-q decline to RUB 1bn in 2Q 09, mainly due declining volatility on the financial markets and a stabilizing Rouble.

The cost/income ratio slightly improves in 2Q 09 Operating expenses increased by 7.5% q-o-q to RUB 57.6bn in 2Q 09, which was almost half the growth in operating revenues before provisions over the same period. Over 2Q 09, the Bank reduced its branch network by 183 locations to 19,492 branches and its regional offices by 24 locations to 710. Consequently, the Bank cut headcount by 2.2% in 2Q 09.

Based on these measures, the cost/income ratio, the key measure of the Bank’s efficiency, declined by 2.1ppts q-o-q to 35% in 2Q 09. Average cost to income ratio among Russian traded banks stood at 40%.

11

Balance sheet Figure 11: IFRS balance sheet selected figures, RUB mn

3M 09 1H 09 q-o-q growth, % 2008 1H 09

Year to date

growth,% Assets Cash and cash equivalents 669,184 534,081 -20.2% 803,749 534,081 -33.6%Obligatory reserves 7,965 15,884 99.4% 7,643 15,884 107.8%Total securities portfolio 77,436 86,993 12.3% 78,603 86,993 10.7%

Trading securities 118,954 101,307 -14.8% 130,503 101,307 -22.4%Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss 305,553 364,491 19.3% 284,572 364,491 28.1%Financial assets available for sale 501,943 552,791 10.1% 493,678 552,791 12.0%

Due from other banks 36,829 3,098 -91.6% 2,756 3,098 12.4%Loans 5,192,868 5,099,425 -1.8% 5,077,882 5,099,425 0.4%

Corporate Lending 4,268,023 4,307,385 0.9% 4,019,305 4,307,385 7.2%Retail Lending 1,215,788 1,180,129 -2.9% 1,260,862 1,180,129 -6.4%Provision for loan impairment -290,943 -388,089 33.4% -202,285 -388,089 91.9%

Premises, equipment and intangible assets 247,299 252,446 2.1% 251,478 252,446 0.4%Other assets 111,737 123,399 10.4% 99,296 123,399 24.3%Total assets 6,767,825 6,581,124 -2.8% 6,736,482 6,581,124 -2.3% Liabilities Due to other banks 331,142 57,998 -82.5% 302,539 57,998 -80.8% Total customer accounts 4,787,168 4,842,293 1.2% 4,795,232 4,842,293 1.0%

Retail deposits 3,184,606 3,327,518 4.5% 3,112,102 3,327,518 6.9% Corporate accounts 1,602,562 1,514,775 -5.5% 1,683,130 1,514,775 -10.0%

Debt securities in issue 118,490 128,628 8.6% 138,902 128,628 -7.4% Other borrowed funds 179,757 164,163 -8.7% 159,080 164,163 3.2% Other liabilities 62,817 84,903 35.2% 54,346 84,903 56.2% Subordinated debt 547,195 553,020 1.1% 536,221 553,020 3.1% Total liabilities 6,026,569 5,831,005 -3.2% 5,986,320 5,831,005 -2.6% Total equity 741,256 750,119 1.2% 750,162 750,119 0.0% Total liabilities and equity 6,767,825 6,581,124 -2.8% 6,736,482 6,581,124 -2.3%

Source: Sberbank Aggregate loans contracted by 2% in 2Q 09

In 2Q 09, the Bank’s total assets contracted by 3% to RUB 6.6 trillion. Over the same period, the gross loan portfolio remained flat at RUB 5.5 trillion. Provisions for loan impairment increased by 33% to RUB 388bn, or 7.1% of the total loan portfolio.

Retail loans decreased by 3% in 2Q 09 to RUB 1.2 trillion on the back of reduced demand for retail financial products. The corporate loan portfolio, which constitutes 80% of aggregate lending, increased by only 1% to RUB 4.3trn over the period as the bank tightened lending requirements.

Aggregate deposits showed slight growth

On the funding side, total customer accounts increased by 1.2% to RUB 4.8 trillion in 2Q 09, although corporate deposits declined by 5.5% to RUB 1.5 trillion on the back of overall macroeconomic deterioration.

The decline in corporate accounts was offset by growth in retail deposits, the Bank’s major source of funding at 70% of deposits. Retail deposits increased by 4.5% to RUB 3.3 trillion in the second quarter. Retail deposits grew based on a 0.6ppts increase in the average individual term deposit rate, from 5.7% in 2008 to 6.3%.

Rouble appreciation, which began in the latter half of February, also spurred growth. Since the RUB/USD peak of 36.38 on 7 February, the currency began to strengthen and appreciated by 6.7% to 33.95 as of the end of the first quarter and by 8.25% to 31.15 at the end of the second quarter. The stronger Rouble gave a strong boost to consumer confidence in the Russian banking system.

12 October 2009

12

Financial outlook Balance sheet

Figure 12: IFRS balance sheet selected figures forecast, RUB mn

2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E

Assets Cash and cash equivalents 803,749 536,524 660,886 818,009 1,128,141 1,484,597 Securities 493,678 553,294 580,959 610,006 640,507 672,532 Change, y-o-y -1.9% 12.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Loans 5,077,882 5,180,089 5,706,132 6,376,227 7,046,624 7,758,535 Change, y-o-y 29.5% 2.0% 10.2% 11.7% 10.5% 10.1%

Corporate loans 4,019,305 4,642,003 5,384,046 6,190,874 6,995,687 7,835,170 Change, y-o-y 30.2% 15.5% 16.0% 15.0% 13.0% 12.0% Retail loans 1,260,862 1,107,094 1,215,874 1,372,497 1,528,255 1,686,940 Change, y-o-y 33.3% -12.2% 9.8% 12.9% 11.3% 10.4% Provisions for loan losses -202,285 -569,008 -893,787 -1,187,144 -1,477,319 -1,763,575 As a % of gross loans -3.8% -9.9% -13.5% -15.7% -17.3% -18.5%

Other assets 361,173 420,129 511,141 625,460 676,644 730,977 Total assets 6,736,482 6,690,036 7,459,117 8,429,703 9,491,916 10,646,642 Change, y-o-y 36.7% -0.7% 11.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.2% Liabilities Customer accounts 4,795,232 4,938,433 5,582,198 6,356,038 7,165,629 8,007,943 Change, y-o-y 23.7% 3.0% 13.0% 13.9% 12.7% 11.8%

Retail accounts 3,112,102 3,482,090 3,981,093 4,538,446 5,128,444 5,743,857 Change, y-o-y 16.0% 11.9% 14.3% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% Corporate accounts 1,683,130 1,456,343 1,601,106 1,817,592 2,037,185 2,264,086 Change, y-o-y 40.8% -13.5% 9.9% 13.5% 12.1% 11.1%

Other borrowed funds 1,136,742 909,028 943,434 979,228 1,016,470 1,055,223 Other liabilities 54,346 85,027 92,478 100,674 109,690 119,608 Total liabilities 5,986,320 5,932,488 6,618,110 7,435,940 8,291,789 9,182,774 Total equity 750,162 759,750 843,319 996,191 1,202,676 1,466,544 Total liabilities and equity 6,736,482 6,690,036 7,459,117 8,429,703 9,491,916 10,646,642

Source: IFC Metropol estimates

Loan portfolio would expand in line with growth in customer accounts and reduced risk

We believe that deposits will remain the Bank’s principal source of funding going forward and the proportion of deposits in total funding would increase from the 74% seen at the end of 1Q 09 to 82% in 2010. To reach this target, combined retail and corporate deposits should grow by 3% y-o-y to RUB 4.9 trillion in 2009 and by 13% y-o-y to RUB 5.6 trillion in 2010, according to our estimates, which we based on the drivers described earlier in this report.

On the asset side, we expect growth to be determined by an increase in funding, thus we estimate that the gross loan portfolio should increase by 8.8% y-o-y to RUB 6.2 trillion in 2009 and by 15% y-o-y to RUB 6.5 trillion in 2010.

Within total loans, we expect to see a 15.5% y-o-y increase to RUB 4.6 trillion in corporate loans in 2009 and 16% y-o-y growth to RUB 5.4 trillion in 2010 on the back of increased demand and lower default risk among corporate borrowers on the back of economic recover. We estimate growth in overdue loans should slow to 34% y-o-y in 2010 after the nearly sixfold increase we expect for the full year 2009.

Retail loans would decrease by 12% y-o-y to RUB 1.1 trillion in 2009 due to lower demand amid the economic slowdown over the first three quarters of the year. In 2010, we expect to see a 10% y-o-y increase to RUB 1.2 trillion in the retail loan portfolio, reflecting the anticipated economic recovery.

13

Asset quality should remain good, with overdue loans fully covered by provisions

We estimate that overdue loans will reach RUB 551bn, or 10% of the total loan portfolio, by the end of 2009. The non-performing loans reflect the economic downturn and concomitant increase in the number of customers unable to service their debt. In 2010, we anticipate further deterioration in the loan portfolio, with overdue loans anticipated to reach RUB 741bn, or 12% of the total loan portfolio, in our view.

Nevertheless, we believe that the Bank will fare much better in comparison with the sector average. We expect overdue loans across the sector to reach up to 12% by the end of 2009, and 12-14% at the peak in 2010.

Moreover, we believe that the Bank’s overdue loans should be fully covered by provisions, with a coverage ratio at 103% in 2009 and 121% in 2010. We argue that in the current environment, this level of coverage is more than adequate. Average coverage ratio among Russian traded banks stood at 106%.

No need for additional capital in 2009-2010

As a result of a RUB 500bn subordinated loan from VEB as part of governmental program to support Russian banks, the Bank’s capital adequacy ratio improved to 18.9% at end-2008 from the 13% seen at the end of September 08. This is well above the 10% level mandated by the CBR.

We do not forecast any additional capital placements for the Bank in 2009-2010, as in our view the Bank ‘s capital adequacy ratio should not fall below 17%, which we consider to be more than adequate.

12 October 2009

14

Income statement Figure 13: IFRS income statement selected figures forecast, RUB mn

2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E

Interest income 619,952 817,239 874,737 977,824 1,105,816 1,236,139 Change, y-o-y 44.6% 31.8% 7.0% 11.8% 13.1% 11.8% Interest expense -241,795 -328,777 -333,210 -365,087 -407,062 -450,991 Change, y-o-y 37.5% 36.0% 1.3% 9.6% 11.5% 10.8% Net interest income (NII) 378,157 488,462 541,527 612,737 698,754 785,148 Change, y-o-y 49.6% 29.2% 10.9% 13.1% 14.0% 12.4% Provision for loan impairment -97,881 -374,995 -339,598 -304,511 -301,637 -297,760 NII after provisioning 280,276 113,467 201,929 308,226 397,117 487,389 Change, y-o-y 19.2% -59.5% 78.0% 52.6% 28.8% 22.7% Net gain arising from securities and FX operations -12,132 25,781 23,931 26,449 29,244 32,350 Change, y-o-y -142.1% -312.5% -7.2% 10.5% 10.6% 10.6% Net fees and commission income 86,194 99,528 119,647 141,379 162,697 187,228 Change, y-o-y 30.8% 15.5% 20.2% 18.2% 15.1% 15.1% Other income 6,186 12,991 14,290 15,719 17,290 19,020 Change, y-o-y 8.6% 110.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Total operating revenues 360,524 251,767 359,796 491,773 606,349 725,986 Change, y-o-y 7.5% -30.2% 42.9% 36.7% 23.3% 19.7% Operating expenses -230,603 -232,215 -253,184 -288,956 -325,933 -365,305 Change, y-o-y 17.8% 0.7% 9.0% 14.1% 12.8% 12.1%

including: Staff costs -132,962 -128,973 -141,870 -163,151 -185,992 -210,171 Change, y-o-y 12.3% -3.0% 10.0% 15.0% 14.0% 13.0%

Profit before tax 129,921 19,551 106,612 202,817 280,416 360,681 Income tax expense -32,175 -3,910 -21,322 -40,563 -56,083 -72,136 Net income 97,746 15,641 85,290 162,253 224,333 288,545 Change, y-o-y -8.2% -84.0% 445.3% 90.2% 38.3% 28.6%

Source: IFC Metropol estimates

Earnings growth would be based on an increase in core revenues

We estimate that the Bank should earn RUB 409bn in interest income over the second half, a 1.3% increase compared with 1H 09. We base our estimates on a 3.6% projected increase in average interest earning assets to RUB 6.1 trillion in 2H 09 and assume a 0.3ppts decline in the average lending rate to 13.3% for the period. This is consistent with the general trend we anticipate in the economy for the period. Overall, we expect to see a 32% y-o-y increase to RUB 817bn in interest income in 2009.

In our view, interest expense in 2H 09 should increase by 3.6% over the first half to RUB 164bn, on the back of 0.3ppts growth in the average borrowing rate to 5.7%, combined with a 1.4% decline in average interest bearing liabilities to RUB 5.8 trillion. For the full year 2009, interest expense is expected to increase by 36% y-o-y to RUB 329bn.

Consequently, net interest income would grow by 29% y-o-y to RUB 488bn in 2009.

Going forward, we look for a 7% y-o-y increase in interest income to RUB 875bn in 2010 and a 1.3% y-o-y increase in interest expense to RUB 333bn on the back of growth in both average interest earning assets and average interest bearing liabilities. As a result, net interest income would increase by 11% y-o-y to RUB 542bn in 2010.

We believe that fee and commission income should increase by 15.5% y-o-y to RUB 100bn in 2009 on the back of expansion ATM network as well as an increase in the number of clients. For 2010, we look for 20% y-o-y growth in net fees and commissions to RUB 120bn.

15

NIM expected to remain higher than pre-crisis level

Since July 2008, average corporate lending rates across the sector grew significantly, from 11.4% in July 2008 to 15.6% in June 2009, or by 4.2ppts according to the CBR. Over the same period, average deposit rates across the sector increased from 7.4% in July 2008 to 10.8% in June 2009, or by 3.4ppts, reflecting the willingness of Russian banks to seek additional funding from deposit accounts in the absence of access to tight international credit markets.

We estimate that in 2H 09, the average lending should decline slightly to 14.6% while the average deposit rate should stay around 10.8%, bringing the average lending and borrowing rates for the whole of 2009 to 15.4% and 10.6% respectively. Reflecting these trends, we estimate the Bank’s net interest margin for the second half of the year should decline to 7.9% annualized and for the whole of 2009 should reach 8.1%.

Figure 14: Sector average corporate lending and deposit rates

6%

12%

18%

Jul-0

8

Aug

-08

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09

Feb-

09

Mar

-09

Apr

-09

May

-09

Jun-

09

2009

E

2010

E

Average deposit rateAverage lending rate

Source: CBR, IFC Metropol estimates

Going forward, we estimate the Bank’s net interest margin should remain at 8.1% in 2010-2011, as we believe lending rates will decline at a faster pace than borrowing rates. Nevertheless, we believe that the net interest margin should exceed the pre-crisis level of 7.6%.

High reserve charges in 2009-2010 could be partially recovered going forward

The Bank would charge RUB 375bn, or 6.8% of the 2009 average loan portfolio, as a provision against loan losses, according to our estimates, aiming to shield itself against deteriorating loan portfolio quality. This would help to maintain the 2009 coverage ratio at 103%, which we consider quite adequate under the current circumstances.

Going forward, we look for a reduction in 2010 provisioning charges to 5.5% of the average loan portfolio, or RUB 340bn. The 2010 coverage ratio should remain at 121%, in our view. After 2010, we estimate that part of the high charges in 2009-2010 could be recovered as collateral from defaulted borrowers is sold off and the economic situation continues to improve.

We look for improvements in operating efficiency based on successful cost cutting

The Bank announced a cost cutting program at the beginning of 2009. Lower operating expenses are expected to come mainly from a reduction in headcount, which the Bank plans to cut by 10% by the end of this year. We forecast that headcount costs will decrease by 3% y-o-y to RUB 129bn in 2009, followed by an increase by 10% y-o-y in 2010. Overall, operating expenses should stay flat y-o-y in 2009 at RUB 232bn and increase by 9% y-o-y in 2010 to RUB 253bn.

Assuming that at the same time total operating revenues before provisions would increase by 36% y-o-y in 2009 to RUB 627bn and by 11.6% y-o-y in 2010 to RUB 699bn, operating efficiency would improve significantly and the cost/income ratio would fall by 13.3ppts to 37% in 2009 and further decline to 36.2% in 2010 , according to our calculations.

12 October 2009

16

Valuation We have used two methods to value the Bank’s common stock: i) P/BV and ii) the Edwards-Bell-Ohlson (EBO) valuation model.

We base our cost of equity calculations on the combination of a risk-free rate, equity risk premium and company-specific risk premium.

Figure 15: Sberbank’s company-specific risk premium calculation

Liquidity of the company’s shares 0.0% Transparency/corporate governance 0.0% Debt/financing issues 0.0% (Government support) -1.0% Company-specific risk, associated with growth in NPLs 0.5% Total company-specific risk premium -0.5%

Source: IFC Metropol estimates

We used the 1-month average yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds of 3.4% as a base for our risk-free rate. To assess the country-specific risk premium, we calculated the yield difference between the US 10-year Treasury and the Russia-30 Eurobond in order to quantify country specific risk in light of the current economic climate. We are using a one month average of 2.8%. For the standard equity risk premium we use 5%.

Figure 16: Cost of equity calculation

Risk-free rate: 10-year US Treasury yield, 1M average 3.4%

Yield difference: 10-year US Treasury/Russia-30, 1M average, adjusted 2.8%

Overall risk-free rate (adjusted for Russia country specific risk premium) 6.2%

Standard equity risk premium 5.0% Company-specific risk premium -1.0% Total cost of equity 10.2%

Source: IFC Metropol estimates

P/BV valuation method Combining the Gordon Growth Model with the retention growth model and using an estimated average ROAE for 2010-2012 of 16.2%, we estimate a P/BV ratio of 1.9x for end-2012.

Using this estimated ratio, we arrive at a share price of RUB 103 per common share at the end of 2012. Discounting back to the end of 2009 at the above calculated cost of equity, we reach a 2009 year-end fair value of RUB 77 per common share.

Edwards-Bell-Ohlson (EBO) valuation model The EBO valuation model is a form of the Economic Value-Added model (EVA) that is based on the residual income model. This model, widely used to value banks, measures an operation’s real profitability, for equity holders only, based on the firm’s ability to generate abnormal returns or residual income, i.e. earnings in excess of its cost of capital, for each period going forward.

Using this method, we estimate a fair value for the Bank’s common shares at end-2009 of RUB 102.

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Figure 17: EBO valuation model, RUB mn

2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E

Net income 15,641 85,290 162,253 224,333 288,545 Equity, beginning of the year 750,162 759,750 843,319 996,191 1,202,676 Residual income -60,876 7,795 76,235 122,722 165,872 Discounted residual income -60,876 7,074 62,775 91,701 112,472 Terminal ROAE 19.0% Equity in 2013 1,466,544 Terminal value 1,926,207 Discounted terminal value 1,306,100 Sum of discounted residual income 213,148 Equity in 2008 750,162 Calculated market capitalization 2,269,410 Fair value per common share, RUB 102

Source: IFC Metropol estimates

Taking the average of the 2009 fair values from the two methods, we arrive at a 2009 year-end fair value of RUB 90 (USD 2.85) per common share.

Preferred stock valuation In our valuation of the Bank’s preferred shares, we have applied a total discount of 43% due to the lack of voting rights and liquidity.

Figure 18: Preferred shares valuation

Common share versus preferred share discount: Voting rights 25.0% Liquidity 20.0% Less yield difference -2.0%

Total discount 43.0% Common share fair value calculated, RUB 90 Preferred share fair value, RUB 51

Source: IFC Metropol estimates

Given our fair value of RUB 90 for the Bank’s common shares, we derive a year-end fair value for the Bank’s preferred shares of RUB 51 (USD 1.73). The USD fair value was calculated again using our forecast RUB/USD exchange rate of 31.5 at the end of 2009.

This valuation provides upside of 39% for preferred shares, versus the current market price of USD 1.24.

In Figure 18 below, we have presented a sensitivity analysis to illustrate how our fair value for the Bank’s common stocks is affected when using different costs of equity valuations and terminal Changes.

Figure 19: Fair value sensitivity analysis, USD per common share

Terminal rate COE

8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.2% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 2.5% 3.62 3.28 2.99 2.65 2.53 2.33 2.163.0% 3.82 3.44 3.12 2.74 2.61 2.40 2.223.5% 4.06 3.62 3.26 2.85 2.70 2.47 2.284.0% 4.35 3.85 3.43 2.97 2.80 2.56 2.344.5% 4.71 4.12 3.64 3.11 2.93 2.65 2.42

Source: IFC Metropol estimates

12 October 2009

18

Peer group comparison Although we have not used a multiples-based peer group analysis in our valuation, for the sake of completeness we have carried out a peer group comparison. We have selected a number of Russian and international banks, including banks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Kazakhstan, BRIC and other emerging markets as comparable institutions. In our analysis, we used our estimates for the Bank and its Russian peers, and Bloomberg consensus estimates for the Bank’s international peers.

Sberbank is trading at an estimated 2009 P/E multiple of 95.1x, or at a 423% premium to the estimated Russian median of 18.2x and a 600% premium to the estimated BRIC median of 13.6x. For 2010, Sberbank trades at an estimated P/E multiple of 17.4x, or at a 44% premium to the estimated Russian median of 12.1x and a 55% premium to the estimated BRIC median of 11.2x.

On P/BV, the Bank is trading at an estimated 2009 ratio of 2.0x, or at a 122% premium to the estimated Russian median of 0.9x and a 29% discount to the estimated BRIC median of 2.8x. Sberbank trades at an estimated 2010 P/BV ratio of 1.8x, or at a 100% premium to the estimated Russian median of 0.9x. However, on the same basis the Bank is trading at a 28% discount to the estimated BRIC median of 2.5x.

19

Figure 20: Peer group comparison, as of 9 October 2009 close

Country Ticker Current market cap. USD mn

P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE, % EPS Change, % 2009E 2010E 2009E 2010E 2009E 2010E 09vs08 10vs09

Sberbank Russia SBER RU 51,539 95.1 17.4 2.0 1.8 2.07% 10.64% -84.00% 445.30%

Russia VTB Russia VTBR LI 24,896 <0 12.1 0.7 0.7 -2.6% 6.1% n/a n/a Bank of Moscow Russia MMBM RM 3,338 18.2 13.0 1.1 1.0 8.8% 10.2% -22.9% 40.1% Rosbank Russia ROSB RM 2,477 6.6 4.1 1.1 0.9 19.6% 24.4% 73.9% 61.1% Uralsib Russia USBNG RU 1,568 12.8 7.8 0.6 0.5 6.3% 9.1% 16.0% 63.7% MDM Bank Russia URSAP RM 1,104 <0 17.0 0.5 0.4 -11.0% 8.8% n/a n/a Bank Vozrozhdenie Russia VZRZ RM 919 22.8 8.8 1.7 1.4 8.0% 18.3% -59.8% 160.0% Bank Saint Petersburg Russia BSPB RM 757 83.0 25.5 0.9 0.9 1.3% 6.3% -90.3% 225.4% Russia Median 18.2 12.1 0.9 0.9 6.3% 9.1% -22.9% 63.7%

Kazakhstan KazKom Kazakhstan KKB LI 2,153 <0 21.2 1.0 0.9 -2.6% 6.4% n/a n/a Halyk Bank Kazakhstan HSBK LI 2,310 9.5 5.3 0.8 0.7 9.1% 14.0% 12.8% 78.4% Kazakh Median 9.5 13.3 0.9 0.8 3.2% 10.2% 12.8% 78.4%

CEE Bank Pekao Poland PEO PW 14,387 19.5 17.8 2.6 2.3 23.2% 23.4% 21.7% 1.0% PKO Bank Poland PKO PW 11,428 16.4 15.5 2.3 2.2 24.6% 27.3% 27.3% 33.3% Bank BZW Poland BZW PW 3,919 19.2 16.2 2.2 2.0 23.6% 20.9% 37.1% -1.2% OTP Bank Hungary OTP HB 8,031 10.8 10.8 1.2 1.2 24.3% 25.1% 12.2% 15.7% Komercni Bank Czech Rep. KOMB CP 7,490 12.7 12.3 2.4 2.1 20.5% 24.5% 17.5% 20.9% Banka Transilvania Romania TLV RO 588 59.6 18.3 1.0 1.1 29.3% 21.8% 1806.3% 14.1% CEE Median 17.8 15.8 2.2 2.1 24.0% 23.9% 24.5% 14.9%

China

ICBC China 1398 HK 247,113 14.2 11.7 3.0 2.7 16.6% 19.4% 40.6% 34.6%

China Construction Bank China 939 HK 196,964 12.9 10.7 2.8 2.5 19.5% 21.7% 43.9% 38.0% Bank of China China 3988 HK 146,287 12.8 10.5 2.1 1.9 13.4% 15.2% 30.8% 19.9% Bank of Communications China 3328 HK 62,161 14.6 11.9 2.8 2.5 17.8% 19.3% 49.6% 36.3% China Median 13.6 11.2 2.8 2.5 17.2% 19.3% 42.2% 35.4%

Brazil

Banco do Brasil Brazil BBD US 54,145 12.9 12.3 1.8 1.6 19.5% 16.0% 9.8% -1.9%

Banco Bradesco Brazil BBD US 63,301 16.9 14.2 3.1 3.0 28.4% 23.2% 36.8% 24.6% Banco Itau Holding Financeira Brazil BBD US n/a 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 31.7% 26.5% 32.5% 16.0%

Brazil Median 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 31.7% 26.5% 32.5% 16.0%

India State Bank of India India SBIN IN 28,287 14.0 12.6 2.2 2.2 14.2% 15.7% -11.4% 52.9% ICICI Bank India ICICIBC IN 21,640 22.3 25.0 2.1 n/a 14.7% 12.3% 21.3% 6.1% HDFC Bank India HDFCB IN 15,432 31.7 25.9 5.5 4.8 19.8% 18.5% 27.9% 15.4% Kotak Mahindra Bank India KMB IN 5,743 41.2 30.1 4.6 4.0 19.5% 22.0% 37.8% 65.3% India Median 31.7 25.9 4.6 4.4 19.5% 18.5% 27.9% 15.4% Median BRIC countries 13.6 11.2 2.8 2.5 19.5% 19.3% 32.5% 16.0%

Turkey Akbank Turkey AKBNK TI 19,266 12.2 11.5 2.4 2.2 21.6% 16.7% 21.1% -2.7% Turkiye Garanti Turkey GARAN TI 17,932 10.1 9.5 2.9 2.2 33.1% 22.7% 93.8% -22.6% Isbank Turkey ISCTR TI 13,504 9.5 9.1 1.7 1.7 16.8% 16.7% 28.8% 7.6% Yapi Kredi Bankasi Turkey YKBNK TI 9,979 9.9 8.9 2.0 1.8 19.8% 22.2% 45.8% 46.9% Turkey Median 10.0 9.3 2.2 2.0 20.7% 19.5% 37.3% 2.5%

Source: IFC Metropol estimates, Bloomberg

12 October 2009

20

Appendix Sberbank’s recent financial results Figure 21: IFRS balance sheet, RUB mn

3M 09 1H 09 Change, q-o-q 2008 1H 09 Change,

year-to-date

Assets Cash and cash equivalents 669,184 534,081 -20.2% 803,749 534,081 -33.6% Obligatory reserves 7,965 15,884 99.4% 7,643 15,884 107.8% Trading securities 77,436 86,993 12.3% 78,603 86,993 10.7% Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss 118,954 101,307 -14.8% 130,503 101,307 -22.4% Financial assets available for sale 305,553 364,491 19.3% 284,572 364,491 28.1% Total securities portfolio 501,943 552,791 10.1% 493,678 552,791 12.0% Due from other banks 36,829 3,098 -91.6% 2,756 3,098 12.4% total loans 5,192,868 5,099,425 -1.8% 5,077,882 5,099,425 0.4%

Corporate Lending 4,268,023 4,307,385 0.9% 4,019,305 4,307,385 7.2% Retail Lending 1,215,788 1,180,129 -2.9% 1,260,862 1,180,129 -6.4% Provision for loan impairment -290,943 -388,089 33.4% -202,285 -388,089 91.9%

Premises, equipment and intangible assets 247,299 252,446 2.1% 251,478 252,446 0.4% Other assets 111,737 121,302 8.6% 99,296 121,302 22.2% Total Assets 6,767,825 6,579,027 -2.8% 6,736,482 6,579,027 -2.3% Liabilities Due to other banks 331,142 57,998 -82.5% 302,539 57,998 -80.8% Total Deposits 4,787,168 4,842,293 1.2% 4,795,232 4,842,293 1.0%

Retail accounts 3,184,606 3,327,518 4.5% 3,112,102 3,327,518 6.9% Corporate accounts 1,602,562 1,514,775 -5.5% 1,683,130 1,514,775 -10.0%

Debt securities in issue 118,490 128,628 8.6% 138,902 128,628 -7.4% Other borrowed funds 179,757 164,163 -8.7% 159,080 164,163 3.2% Other liabilities 62,817 84,903 35.2% 54,346 84,903 56.2% Subordinated debt 547,195 553,020 1.1% 536,221 553,020 3.1% Total Liabilities 6,026,569 5,831,005 -3.2% 5,986,320 5,831,005 -2.6% Total equity 741,256 750,119 1.2% 750,162 750,119 0.0% Total liabilities and equity 6,767,825 6,581,124 -2.8% 6,736,482 6,581,124 -2.3%

Source: Sberbank

Figure 22: IFRS income statement, RUB mn

1Q 09 2Q 09 Change, q-o-q 1H 08 1H 09 Change,

y-o-y

Interest income 195,118 208,126 6.7% 278,089 403,244 45.0% Interest expense -79,636 -79,093 -0.7% -109,744 -158,729 44.6% Net interest income (NII) 115,482 129,033 11.7% 168,345 244,515 45.2% Provision for loan impairment -90,755 -100,802 11.1% -17,278 -191,557 1008.7% NII after Provisioning 24,727 28,231 14.2% 151,067 52,958 -64.9% Net income from securities and FX operations 3,823 8,957 134.3% 4,784 12,780 167.1%

Net securities gain/loss -4,400 7,614 -273.0% -619 3,214 -619.2% Net gain/loss from FX operations 8,223 1,343 -83.7% 5,403 9,566 77.0%

Net Fees & Commissions Income 22,065 23,757 7.7% 37,815 45,822 21.2% Fees & commission income 23,093 24,783 7.3% 39,499 47,876 21.2% Fees & commission expense -1,028 -1,026 -0.2% -1,684 -2,054 22.0%

Other Operating Revenue 3,318 3,338 0.6% 2,410 6,656 176.2% Operating Revenue 53,933 64,283 19.2% 196,076 118,216 -39.7% Operating expenses -53,574 -57,583 7.5% -108,600 -111,157 2.4%

Staff costs -31,400 -32,400 3.2% -67,100 -63,800 -4.9% Operating income 359 6,700 1766.3% 87,476 7,059 -91.9% Profit before tax 359 6,700 1766.3% 87,476 7,059 -91.9% Income tax expense 224 -1,273 -668.3% -20,464 -1,049 -94.9% Net Income 583 5,427 830.9% 67,012 6,010 -91.0% EPS, RUB 0.03 0.22 722.8% 3.07 0.25 -91.9%

Source: Sberbank

21

Sberbank’s financial results forecast Figure 23: IFRS balance sheet forecast, RUB mn

2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E

Assets Cash and cash equivalents 803,749 536,524 660,886 818,009 1,128,141 1,484,597 Total securities portfolio 493,678 553,294 580,959 610,006 640,507 672,532 Change, y-o-y -1.9% 12.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Total loans 5,077,882 5,180,089 5,706,132 6,376,227 7,046,624 7,758,535 Change, y-o-y 29.5% 2.0% 10.2% 11.7% 10.5% 10.1%

Corporate Lending 4,019,305 4,642,003 5,384,046 6,190,874 6,995,687 7,835,170 Change, y-o-y 30.2% 15.5% 16.0% 15.0% 13.0% 12.0% Retail Lending 1,260,862 1,107,094 1,215,874 1,372,497 1,528,255 1,686,940 Change, y-o-y 33.3% -12.2% 9.8% 12.9% 11.3% 10.4% Provision for loan impairment -202,285 -569,008 -893,787 -1,187,144 -1,477,319 -1,763,575 As a % of gross loans -3.8% -9.9% -13.5% -15.7% -17.3% -18.5%

Total other assets 361,173 420,129 511,141 625,460 676,644 730,977 Total Assets 6,736,482 6,690,036 7,459,117 8,429,703 9,491,916 10,646,642 Change, y-o-y 36.7% -0.7% 11.5% 13.0% 12.6% 12.2% Liabilities Total Deposits 4,795,232 4,938,433 5,582,198 6,356,038 7,165,629 8,007,943 Change, y-o-y 23.7% 3.0% 13.0% 13.9% 12.7% 11.8%

Retail accounts 3,112,102 3,482,090 3,981,093 4,538,446 5,128,444 5,743,857 Change, y-o-y 16.0% 11.9% 14.3% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% Corporate accounts 1,683,130 1,456,343 1,601,106 1,817,592 2,037,185 2,264,086 Change, y-o-y 40.8% -13.5% 9.9% 13.5% 12.1% 11.1%

Total borrowed funds 1,136,742 909,028 943,434 979,228 1,016,470 1,055,223 Other liabilities 54,346 85,027 92,478 100,674 109,690 119,608 Total liabilities 5,986,320 5,932,488 6,618,110 7,435,940 8,291,789 9,182,774 Total equity 750,162 759,750 843,319 996,191 1,202,676 1,466,544 Total liabilities and equity 6,736,482 6,692,238 7,461,429 8,432,131 9,494,465 10,649,318

Source: Sberbank, IFC Metropol estimates

12 October 2009

22

Figure 24: IFRS income statement forecast, RUB mn

2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E

Interest income 619,952 817,239 874,737 977,824 1,105,816 1,236,139 Change, y-o-y 44.6% 31.8% 7.0% 11.8% 13.1% 11.8% Interest expense -241,795 -328,777 -333,210 -365,087 -407,062 -450,991 Change, y-o-y 37.5% 36.0% 1.3% 9.6% 11.5% 10.8% Net interest income (NII) 378,157 488,462 541,527 612,737 698,754 785,148 Change, y-o-y 49.6% 29.2% 10.9% 13.1% 14.0% 12.4% Provision for loan impairment -97,881 -374,995 -339,598 -304,511 -301,637 -297,760 Change, y-o-y 455.1% 283.1% -9.4% -10.3% -0.9% -1.3% NII after Provisioning 280,276 113,467 201,929 308,226 397,117 487,389 Change, y-o-y 19.2% -59.5% 78.0% 52.6% 28.8% 22.7% Net income from securities and FX operations -12,132 25,781 23,931 26,449 29,244 32,350 Change, y-o-y -142.1% -312.5% -7.2% 10.5% 10.6% 10.6% Net Fees & Commissions Income 86,194 99,528 119,647 141,379 162,697 187,228 Change, y-o-y 30.8% 15.5% 20.2% 18.2% 15.1% 15.1% Other Operating Revenue 6,186 12,991 14,290 15,719 17,290 19,020 Change, y-o-y 8.6% 110.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Operating Revenue 360,524 251,767 359,796 491,773 606,349 725,986 Change, y-o-y 7.5% -30.2% 42.9% 36.7% 23.3% 19.7% Operating expenses -230,603 -232,215 -253,184 -288,956 -325,933 -365,305 Change, y-o-y 17.8% 0.7% 9.0% 14.1% 12.8% 12.1%

Staff costs -132,962 -128,973 -141,870 -163,151 -185,992 -210,171 Change, y-o-y 12.3% -3.0% 10.0% 15.0% 14.0% 13.0%

Operating income 129,921 19,551 106,612 202,817 280,416 360,681 Change, y-o-y -7.0% -85.0% 445.3% 90.2% 38.3% 28.6% Profit before tax 129,921 19,551 106,612 202,817 280,416 360,681 Income tax expense -32,175 -3,910 -21,322 -40,563 -56,083 -72,136 Net income 97,746 15,641 85,290 162,253 224,333 288,545 Change, y-o-y -8.2% -84.0% 445.3% 90.2% 38.3% 28.6% EPS, RUB 5 1 4 8 10 13 Change, y-o-y -10.3% -84.0% 445.3% 90.2% 38.3% 28.6%

Source: Sberbank, IFC Metropol estimates

23

Figure 25: Financial ratios forecast

2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E

Profitability and efficiency ROAE 14.2% 2.1% 10.6% 17.6% 20.4% 21.6% ROAA 1.7% 0.2% 1.2% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% Net interest margin 7.6% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.2% 8.2% Effective lending rate 12.0% 13.6% 13.0% 12.8% 12.8% 12.8% Effective borrowing rate -4.9% -5.6% -5.4% -5.3% -5.2% -5.2% Net interest spread 7.1% 8.0% 7.6% 7.5% 7.5% 7.6% Cost/income 50.3% 37.1% 36.2% 36.3% 35.9% 35.7% Assets structure Loans/assets 75.4% 77.4% 76.5% 75.6% 74.2% 72.9% Securities/assets 7.3% 8.3% 7.8% 7.2% 6.7% 6.3% Liquid assets/assets 17.9% 7.7% 8.3% 8.8% 8.6% 8.4% Interbank loans/assets 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Funding structure Customer accounts/assets 71.2% 73.8% 74.8% 75.4% 75.5% 75.2% Borrowed funds/assets 12.4% 12.7% 11.8% 10.8% 10.0% 9.2% Shareholder equity/assets 11.1% 11.4% 11.3% 11.8% 12.7% 13.8% Customer accounts/liabilities 80.1% 83.2% 84.3% 85.5% 86.4% 87.2% Loan portfolio quality NPL/gross loans 1.8% 9.6% 11.2% 9.8% 9.0% 8.1% Allowance for loan losses/gross loans 3.8% 9.9% 13.5% 15.7% 17.3% 18.5% Allowance for loan losses/non-performing loans 212.8% 103.2% 120.6% 159.7% 193.3% 229.9% Liquidity and capital adequacy ratios Tier I ratio 12.2% 11.4% 11.1% 11.6% 12.5% 13.7% Total capital adequacy ratio 18.9% 17.8% 17.0% 17.0% 17.6% 18.5% Loans/deposits 105.9% 104.9% 102.2% 100.3% 98.3% 96.9% Liquid assets/deposits (customer accounts) 25.1% 9.6% 10.1% 10.6% 10.0% 9.6%

Source: Sberbank, IFC Metropol estimates

Selected Sberbank market data

Common shares outstanding, mn 21,587 Preferred shares outstanding, mn 1,000

52 Week High (Comm.), USD: 2.3 52 Week Low (Comm.), USD: 0.4 52 Week High (Pref.), USD: 1.2 52 Week Low (Pref.), USD: 0.2

Free float % 42.4% Average daily traded volume (Comm.), USD mn 491 Average daily traded volume (Pref.), USD mn 51 Common share price performance over the last:

1 month 21.4% 3 months 96.9% 12 months 79.6%

Preferred share price performance over the last: 1 month 11.6% 3 months 90.1% 12 months 150.0%

Source: Bloomberg

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