METRO VEHICLES GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS · 2019. 5. 29. · 55 Nagpur 56 Nanchang 57 Nanjing 58 Nanning 59 Navi Mumbai 60 Ningbo 61 Osaka 62 Patna / Danapur 63 Pune 64 Pyongyang 65 Qingdao

Annex

© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 1

2019

METRO VEHICLES – GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS

Forecast, Installed Base, Manufacturers, Infrastructure and

Rolling Stock Projects

Annex


METRO VEHICLES – GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS

Forecast, Installed Base, Suppliers, Infrastructure and Rolling Stock Projects

Available in English from 29th May 2018. Now you can also purchase the data annex in Excel format (see overview data sheets on page no. 6 for more information). This study entitled “Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends” provides a comprehensive insight into the structure, fleets, volumes and development trends in the worldwide market for metro vehicles. Urbanisation, the increasing mobility of people and climate change are resulting in increased demand for modern and efficient public transport systems. Metro is a very environmentally-friendly transport mode which has become much more important in recent years. Based on current developments, this MultiClient Study delivers an analysis and well-founded estimate of the market for metro vehicles and network development. This is the seventh, updated edition of SCI Verkehr’s study analysing the global market for metro vehicles. In concrete terms, this market study of metro vehicles includes:

– A regionally differentiated look at the worldwide market for metro vehicles including an in-depth analysis of all important markets of the individual countries. Network length, installed base and average vehicle age in 2018 of all cities operating a metro system are provided

– An overview of the most important drivers behind the procurement and refurbishment of metro vehicles in the individual regions

– A comprehensive analysis of the current fleet stocks concerning quantities and age structures as well as future procurement potential up to 2023. An analysis of the current market shares of important manufacturers as well as a forecast of future vehicle requirements of customers up to 2023

– A worldwide presentation of metro systems, future infrastructure projects and forecast of network development up to 2030

– An overview of metro vehicle manufacturers including a brief description of their current range of products and services as well as production capacities

– A condensed presentation of the most important fleet-specific features of metro vehicles of all countries presented in detail and regions in the form of diagrams

All in all, the study provides a well-founded analysis of the worldwide market for metro vehicles. It provides crucial, complete and differentiated information on this vehicle segment that is important for the operational and strategic planning of players in the transport and railway industry. Explore our additional offer of the data annex in Excel format

– All in this study displayed figures and graphs concerning markets and installed bases are transparently and comprehensively available

– Apply the data sets for an individual evaluation and configuration or to access and supplement available market data

This MultiClient Study is based on numerous information sources, which are continuously analysed and evaluated, and are recorded in SCI Verkehr’s database system.

Annex


SCI Verkehr is an independent consultancy company for the mobility sector with activities around the world. We specialise in strategic advice to the railway and logistics industry. We have established an international network of professional experts. Our activities focus on companies in the transport and rail industry and in the transport operation, logistics and financial sectors, as well as the transport and economics departments at national, regional and municipal levels. Your contact:

SCI Verkehr GmbH Tel: +49 221 93178 20 Fax: +49 221 93178 78 E-mail: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Annex


CONTENTS

1 Executive Summary: The World Market for Metro Vehicles .............................................. 14

2 Objective of the Study and Delimitation of the Railway Market ........................................ 28

2.1 Objective of the Market Analysis ................................................................................................ 28

2.2 Delimitation of the Rail Market ................................................................................................... 29

3 Market Analysis Methodology ............................................................................................ 37

3.1 SCI Forecasting Tool ................................................................................................................. 37

3.2 After-Sales Market Forecast ....................................................................................................... 39

4 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Western Europe ............................................................ 41

4.1 Total Market................................................................................................................................ 41

4.2 Germany ..................................................................................................................................... 54

4.3 France ........................................................................................................................................ 56

4.4 United Kingdom ......................................................................................................................... 59

4.5 Italy ............................................................................................................................................. 61

4.6 Spain .......................................................................................................................................... 63

5 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Eastern Europe ............................................................. 65

5.1 Total Market................................................................................................................................ 65

5.2 Turkey ........................................................................................................................................ 76

5.3 The Czech Republic ................................................................................................................... 78

6 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Asia................................................................................ 79

6.1 Total Market................................................................................................................................ 79

6.2 China .......................................................................................................................................... 94

6.3 India .......................................................................................................................................... 104

6.4 Japan........................................................................................................................................ 110

6.5 South Korea ............................................................................................................................. 112

7 The Market for Metro Vehicles in North America ............................................................. 114

8 The Market for Metro Vehicles in South and Central America ........................................ 127

9 The Market for Metro Vehicles in the CIS ......................................................................... 140

10 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Africa/the Middle East ................................................ 150

11 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Australia/Pacific .......................................................... 161

Annex


ANNEX

1 Annex A: Company Fact Sheets Metro Vehicle Manufacturers ....................................... 163

2 Annex B: Automated Guided Vehicles operating ............................................................. 212

Annex


DATA ANNEX IN EXCEL FORMAT (ADDITIONAL OFFER) DATA SHEETS OVERVIEW

1 Market Overview

1.1 Market Volume and Installed Base (Pivot)

1.2 Transport Performance (Pivot)

1.3 Market Volume per year (Pivot)

1.4 Network Length (Pivot)

1.5 Market Volume + Installed Base (Data)

1.6 Transport Performance (Data)

1.7 Market Volume per year (Data)

1.8 Network Length (Data)

2 Installed Base

2.1 Installed Base Country (Pivot)

2.2 Installed Base Cities (Pivot)

2.3 Installed Base Age (Pivot)

2.4 Installed Base Country (Data)

2.5 Installed Base Cities (Data)

2.6 Installed Base Age (Data)

3 Deliveries

3.1 Deliveries Manufacturer 2014-2018 (Pivot)

3.2 Deliveries Manufacturer 2009-2018 (Pivot)

3.3 Deliveries Manufacturer 2014-2018 (Data)

3.4 Deliveries Manufacturer 2009-2018 (Data)

4 Additional

4.1 Project Overview (Data)

4.2 Additional Figures

Annex


6 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Asia

6.1 Total Market

Market Overview

Figure 1: Market overview in Asia

The Asian metro vehicle market will remain at a very high level, but will grow only slightly over the next five years. It remains the most important region of the world, as more than half of the world market size is currently made up by Asia. Market environment/infrastructure development Urban rail is a strong growth sector in Asia. Transport performance almost tripled between 2007 (XX billion pkm) and 2017 (XX billion pkm) and is expected to double again until 2025, reaching XX billion pkm. The largest regional markets are China, Japan, South Korea and India. India is expected to register the second highest growth rate after China. […] New metro systems or lines are being planned and built in China and India as well as in Bangladesh,

Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Japan already has

efficient mass transit transport systems in its metropolises. As the new development of metro systems is very cost-intensive, many countries place a great deal of value on public-private partnership as a method of financing. In addition, it is worth mentioning that planned new development projects in countries that are financially weaker are often implemented with a time delay or fail to be implemented. The route network in Asia will grow at rapid speed, despite slower growth rates compared to past years. Even in the downside scenario, SCI Verkehr expects the network to grow by 9% per annum between 2018 and 2023. The downside scenario is based on the fact that the municipalities cannot implement their upgrade plans due to their relatively weak financial position (e.g. in countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and some Indian cities).

Asia Metro Trend

Cars 2018 59,000

Average development 2018-2023 (p. a.) 7.8%

Average age 2018 (in years) 10

Average volume 2017-2019 (EUR million p. a.) 4,920


Average volume 2017-2019 (EUR million p. a.) 2900


Boom/Strong Growth Small Growth ➔ Stagnation Small Decrease Clear Decline

Volume: > +5%p.a. +2 to +5% p.a. 0 to +2% p.a. -2 to 0% p.a. <-2% p.a.

Installed base: > +5%p.a. +2 to +5% p.a. 0 to +2% p.a. -2 to 0% p.a. <-2% p.a.

Insta

lled

Base

Mark

et

Fo

r N

ew

Veh

icle

s

➔

Mark

et

Fo

r A

fter-

Sale

s

Annex


Figure 2: Overview of metro systems in Asia

Figure 3: Metro systems in operation in Asia

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1 Ahmedabad2 Bangalore3 Bangkok

4 Beijing5 Busan6 Chandigarh7 Changchun8 Changsha

9 Changzhou10 Chengdu

11 Chennai12 Chongqing13 Colombo

14 Daegu15 Dalian

16 Delhi17 Dhaka18 Dongguan

19 Foshan20 Fukuoka

21 Fuzhou22 Guangzhou23 Guiyang

24 Gurgaon25 Gwangju

26 Hangzhou27 Hanoi28 Harbin29 Hefei30 Ho Chi Minh City

31 Hohhot32 Hong Kong33 Hyderabad34 Incheon35 Jaipur

36 Jakarta37 Jinan38 Kanpur39 Kaohsiung40 Kawasaki41 Kobe42 Kochi43 Kolkata44 Kuala Lumpur45 Kunming46 Kunshan47 Kyoto48 Lahore49 Lakhnau

50 Lanzhou51 Macao52 Manila

53 Mumbai54 Nagoya55 Nagpur56 Nanchang57 Nanjing

58 Nanning59 Navi Mumbai

60 Ningbo61 Osaka62 Patna / Danapur

63 Pune64 Pyongyang

65 Qingdao66 Quanzhou 67 Sapporo

68 Sendai69 Seo-gu Daejeon

70 Seoul71 Shanghai72 Shenyang

73 Shenzhen74 Shijazhuang

75 Singapore76 Suzhou77 Taichung78 Taipei79 Taiyuan

80 Taoyuan81 Thane82 Tianjin83 Tokio84 Uijeongbu

85 Urumqi86 Wuhan87 Wuxi88 Xiamen89 Xian90 Xuzhou91 Yantai92 Yokohama93 Yong-In94 Zhengzhou

Metro systems in operation

Complete new systems (Start of construction before 2025)

Metro systems in operation, expected to

expand by more than 5 km in the period 2019-2025

1958

17

31

9

37

55

62

36

13

66

79

85

94

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© SCI Verkehr GmbH

59

48

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Metro system in operation [km]Asia

Base Case Downside Case Upside Case

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Forecast

Annex


Countries not among those considered in detail in this study have the following important current and planned infrastructure projects:

Country City Project Title Distance in km Expected completion

Project status

Bangladesh Dhaka Line 6 20.1 2021 Construction

Indonesia Jakarta (1) North-South corridor phase 1 (Lebak Bulus - Bundaran Hl / city

centre)

15.7 2019 Construction

Indonesia Jakarta (2) North-South corridor phase 2 (Bundaran Hl - Kampung Bedan)

8.1 2025 Planning

Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Selayang - Putrajaya 56 2021 Construction

[…] […] […] […] […] […]

Installed base/age structure With about 59 000 operated metro cars, Asia has the largest fleet in the world. The fleet has grown considerably through procurements in China, followed by India, in the last few years. Japan and South Korea also have comprehensive installed bases in Tokyo and Seoul.

Figure 4: Metro cars in Asia by country

Indonesia and Vietnam opened very recently the first line of their new metro system in Jakarta and Ho Chi Minh City.

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Indonesia

Vietnam

Pakistan

Philippines

Thailand

North Korea

Malaysia

Taiwan

Singapore

India

Japan

South Korea

China

Installed base per country in Asia[2018; number of cars]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Annex


Top 10 cities for metro:

Rank Country City Number of metro units/cars 2018 Average age

2018 Route length in km 2018 Units Cars

1 China Shanghai XXX XXX 8 686

2 China Beijing 986 5 854 XXX XXX

[...] [...] [...] [...] [...] [...] [...]

10 China Chengdu 986 5 854 4 227

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

[…] The Asian fleet has an average age of only 10 years. Between 2014 and 2018, around XXmetro cars were delivered to Asian cities. In China alone, nearly XX metro cars were delivered between 2014 and 2018. The old fleet, which exceeds its economical efficient life time, is mainly operated in North and South Korea, Hong Kong and Japan.

Figure 5: Age structure of metro cars in Asia by country

Manufacturers/Products/Market Shares In the last five years, the Asian market was dominated by CRRC, which has more than 80% market share. Besides China and countries in Southeast Asia, where Chinese players traditionally have a strong positioning, CRRC is increasing its market share in India. Within 2014-2018, CRRC delivered to the following cities outside China: Nagpur, Mumbai, Kolkata and Delhi in India, Kuala Lumpur, Lahore in Pakistan, Singapore and Bangkok. CRRC has now 5 subsidiaries producing metro vehicles: Sifang, Zhuzhou, Nanjing Puzhen, Changchun and Dalian.

Annex


Figure 6: Market shares in Asia by manufacturer

Market volume and market development The current market volume for metro vehicles in Asia is around EUR XX million per year; for After-Sales services it is around EUR XX million. This market development is influenced by the following drivers:

Driver Brief description Relevance Trend

New development and upgrade of infrastructure

Asian cities have been heavily investing in new metro infrastructures since recent years, especially China, followed by India and other countries. Investments will continue in the medium-term at a very high level.

➔

Fleet structure Requirements for replacing vehicles which have reached an age of 30 to 45 years, mainly in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea ➔

Investment funds

Stable economic situation in the important countries of China, India, Japan and South Korea. There is financial support by international organisations for the Asian countries that are financially weaker.

➔

Transport demand Reduction of CO2 emissions as well as climate-friendly transport systems are of high political priority in the important countries of

Japan, South Korea and China. China in particular is becoming increasingly aware of its pollution problem.

Environment and sustainability

Increasing numbers of metropolitan areas and more traffic jams on the roads will increase the transport demand in the

metropolises. Many cities with more than 1 million inhabitants still have no mass transport system.

Relevance for procurements: = very high, = high, = medium, = low, = none

5-year trend: = strongly increasing, = increasing, ➔ = constant, = decreasing = strongly decreasing

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

[…] In addition to the Chinese market, the Indian market has been also growing rapidly. The Indian market for metro vehicles will develop dynamically for the next 20 years, at least. This is driven by a fast growing population as well as urbanisation. Replacement procurements in Japan and South Korea are ensuring

CRRC83%

Hyundai Rotem

5%

Alstom3%

Bombardier2%

Kawasaki1%

other Manufacturers

6%

Market shares per manufacturer in Asia[2014-2018; Number of cars ~23100]

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Annex


a constant, high-level market volume. In addition, many Southeast Asian cities are planning to develop new metro systems.

Figure 7: Deliveries of contracted orders in Asia after 2018

Countries not among those considered in detail in this study have the following important current and planned procurement projects:

Country/ city Units Cars Vehicle type/line Delivery Comment

Bangladesh / Dhaka

24 XX new system; first line (line 6)

2019-2021

Dhaka Mass Transit Company (DMTC) in cooperation with Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) and Mitsubishi Corporation agreed on a Yen 40 bn (EUR 312 million) contract for the supply of 24 six-car metro trains and

maintenance depot equipment for Dhaka MRT Line 6. Cars will be 19.8 m long and equipped with CCTV and air-conditioning due to Dhaka City´s humid climate.

Kawasaki will be responsible for the project management, design, manufacturing, testing, commissioning and supply of rolling stock and

maintenance equipment, while Mitsubishi will be responsible for commercial administration and supply of depot equipment. Kawasaki will supervise maintenance

of the rolling stock and depot equipment, which will be performed by DMTC. The north-south line 6 will be 20km long, serving 16 stations and operates between Uttarra

North and Motijheel.

Indonesia / Jakarta

XX 2

phase 1

2018

Hyundai Rotem announced that it had been selected to supply rolling stock for the first phase of the light metro network under construction in Jakarta. Hyundai Rotem worked with Woojin Industrial Systems for the supply of

eight two-car trainsets. Construction of the initial 5·8 km section between Kelapa Gading and Velodrome began in June 2016. The rolling stock contract includes options

for up to 110 cars to operate on further phases of the network.

55 XX

Further infrastructures; option 2021-2025

[…] […] […] […] […] […]

[…]

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Deliveries of vehicles ordered before 2019 [Number of cars]Asia

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Annex


Annex

1 Annex A: Company Fact Sheets Metro Vehicle Manufacturers

Alstom SA

Overview

Headquarters

48 rue Albert Dhalenne,

93482 Saint Ouen Cedex, France

www.alstom.com

Tel: +33 1 57 06 90 00

Development of revenue and EBIT

(FY ending March)

Management

Henri Poupart-Lafarge (CEO)

Current shareholders

Alstom SA

Year Employees Revenue

(EUR mn)

EBIT

(EUR mn)

Order intake

(EUR mn)

2018/19 36,300 XX 570 XX

[…]

Current relevant company information

On 6 February 2019, the European Commission (EC) formally prohibited the proposed merger of the railway businesses of Alstom and Siemens Mobility on the grounds that the merger would significantly impede competition. The two companies

had long planned to merge their railway businesses in order to face growing competition from the Chinese manufacturer CRRC. In the view of the EC, however, the merger would create a dominant player in the European market for high-speed trains (HGV trains) and signalling equipment, which would quickly drive up prices. Following the EC decision, business

associations and politicians from Germany and France are calling for the introduction of a new competition law in the EU.

StationOne, Alstoms autonomous online marketplace dedicated to the railway sector, was officially opened to all customers in March 2019. StationOne connects professionals in the railway industry and is designed as an efficient way to both promote and access the broadest possible range of mobility-related products and services. It offers parts and

commodities for mobility, with a specialisation in all areas of the railway sector, including rolling stock, infrastructure, depots and stations. StationOne is open to products and services from all vendors of the railway sector.

6.139

6.8817.306

7.951 8.072

159 -226 358 381 570

2,6%

-3,3%

4,9% 4,8% 7,1%

-5,0%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

30,0%

-1.000

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Revenue EBIT ROSSource: Annual Report Alstom

EU

R m

illio

n

Institutional

investors65.0%

Bougyes28.0%

Individualshareholders

6.0%

Employees1.0%

© SCI Verkehr GmbH

Annex A: Company Fact Sheets Metro Vehicle Manufacturers


Rolling Stock

Rolling Stock Business Overview

Recent business development

Revenue and EBIT

In FY 2018/19 Alstom’s sales reached EUR XX billion, significating a growth of about 2% compared to revenue in FY 2017/18 and a constant increase of revenues since FY 2014/15. The adjusted EBIT increased to EUR XX million, 49% above last year,

leading to an adjusted EBIT margin of XX%.

[…]

Important contracts of metro vehicles in the period 2018 – H2 2019

According to the company, it benefited from an exceptional commercial momentum in FY 2018/19 with a record high in order intakes at EUR 12.1 billion, including various big contracts regarding metro vehicles:

– In March 2019, infrastructure manager Société du Grand Paris (SGP) and operator Ile-de-France Mobilités (IdFM) have exercised a EUR 100 million option for the delivery of 23 three-car metros for Paris metro lines 16 and 17 from a contract

with Alstom signed in September 2018. The companies have already ordered 25 metros with six cars each. The first metros will leave the factory in 2022, with initial entry into commercial service planned for 2024. Each train will be able to transport around 500 passengers in its three-car version, which is 54 m in length, and around 1,000 passengers in its six-

car version with a length of 108 m.

– In February 2019, Hochbahn, the operator of the metro network in Hamburg, has received the 100th vehicle of the DT5 series from a consortium of Alstom and Bombardier. The company had ordered additional vehicles at the end of 2018. By

2020, a total of 131 DT5 metros will operate in Hamburg.

– On 19th July 2018, the Mumbai Metro Rail Corporation (MMRC) and Alstom signed a contract for the delivery of 31 driverless metros for line 3 of the metro network in Mumbai. The 25 kV AC vehicles will be formed of eight stainless-steel

bodied cars with 75% of the axles powered. Alstom will assemble eight of the vehicles in India. Deliveries will begin in September 2020 and the first phase of the line is scheduled to open by June 2021.

[…]

Sites of final assembly Rolling Stock

Region Region Region Region Region

Western Europe

France La Rochelle HST, EMU, DMU, Metro, LRV, design centre

Employees: 1,100

Production capacity:

500 cars p.a.

France Valenciennes EMU, DMU, LRV, Metro

Employees: 1,400

Production capacity: 550 cars p.a.

[…] […] […] […] […]

Product segments

Segment Market shares (2014 – 2018)

Important platforms

Description and main customers

Metro

7% (WW)

X% (WE)

X%(SA)

X% (EE)

X%(AF/ME)

Metropolis

With 25 cities having ordered Metropolis metros, Alstom can manufacture rolling stock at seven manufacturing sites around the

world. The Metropolis metros can be configured precisely to individual requirements such as length, width and seating arrangements.

[…]

Annex B: Automated Guided Vehicles operating


2 Annex B: Automated Guided Vehicles operating

Country City Year of opening

Length (km)

Cars Operational parameter Manu-

facturer Type

Australia Goldcoast 1988 2.0 9

SeaWorld;

3 stops; 1.800 passengers

per hour; V max= 27km/h

Von Roll Monorail

Australia Goldcoast 1989 1.3

Broadbeach;

3 stops; 1.800 passengers

per hour

Von Roll Monorail

Brazil Sao Paolo 2018 7.6 -

Line 15, 6 stops

Phase 2 (estimated for

2021): Total length of 26.6

km and total of 8 stations

Bombardie

r Monorail

[…] […] […] […] […] […] […] […]

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Documents

METRO VEHICLES GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS · 2019. 5. 29. · 55 Nagpur 56 Nanchang 57 Nanjing 58 Nanning 59 Navi Mumbai 60 Ningbo 61 Osaka 62 Patna / Danapur 63 Pune 64 Pyongyang 65 Qingdao