Metallic Material Trends For North American Light Vehicles

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North AmericanLight Vehicle Metallic Material Trends

Metallic Material Trends ForNorth American Light Vehicles

Richard A. Schultz & Abey K. AbrahamDucker Worldwide



• Ducker Worldwide has been a leader in the examination of worldwide material trends in vehicles for nearly 20 years

• In this presentation we will discuss past, present and future material trends for only North American light vehicles

• We will concentrate on mild steel, high strength steel, ultra high strength steel, iron and aluminum and the outside influences that we believe will effect the mix of these metals in North American light vehicles over the next ten years



2008 Worldwide Material Content for Light Vehicles

Flat Steel 86.0 Billion lbs.

Non Metallics 45.4 Billion lbs.

Other Metals9.1 Billion lbs.

Aluminum16.6 Billion lbs.

Iron16.9 Billion lbs.

Other Steel 37.0 Billion lbs.

This presentation concentrates on the 75% of the

average content that is ferrous and aluminum

211 Billion Pounds for 66.3 Million vehicles in 2008

21.8%

4.2%

40.8%

17.4%

7.9%

7.9%



Light Vehicle Curb Weight Segmented by Material

2009 North America 2009 Rest of the World

Non Metallics22.3% Flat Steel

40.5%

Other Steel

17.1%

Iron7.6%

Aluminum8.6%

Other Metals3.9%

3,755 Pounds 3,059 Pounds

Flat Steel41.2%

Non Metallics21.3%Other

Metals4.3%

Aluminum7.6%

Iron8.1%

Other Steel

17.5%

• Even after a great deal of hard work, our vehicles still weigh 700 lbs. more than vehicles in the rest of the world!



North American New Light Vehicle Fuel Economy(Miles Per Gallon)

15.3

23.125.4 24.9 25.4 26.8

31.835

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1975 1980 1985 1995 2005 2008 2015 2020

+30%

+60%

MPG



North American Light Vehicle Curb Weight- History and Forecast -

4,059

3,057

3,5323,846 4,018

3,7553,603 3,500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1976 1996 2004 20151986 2002 2009 2020

Cur

b W

eigh

t Pou

nds

Select Calendar Years



North American Light Vehicle Mix Passenger Car Versus Light Truck

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1975 1995 20151985 2005 2020

77%

23%

69%

31%

56%

44%

42%

58%

49%

51%

50%

50%

Passenger Car

Light Truck



North American Light Vehicle Architecture- Percent Full Frame -

41%38%

22% 20%

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2005 2010 2015

The average full frame (body on frame) vehicle

weighs over 1,000 pounds more than

the average unibody vehicle (4,584

pounds versus 3,471 pounds in 2009)

Perc

ent F

ull F

ram

e



Summary of Influencing Trends• North American light vehicles will continue to be larger and weigh more than competing

light vehicles in the rest of the world

• We will continue to increase occupant safety which can add weight

• We will improve fuel economy over the all time high of 27 mpg in 2008 by 30% to 35 mpg in 2020

• Weight reduction must contribute at least 25% of this improvement in fuel economy resulting in an average curb weight of less than 3,500 pounds by 2020

• The remaining improvement in fuel economy will come from improvements in the powertrain and other technologies such as aerodynamic drag reduction, low roll resistance tires and a 42 volt electrical system

• Vehicle mix will have to be at least 80% unibody and close to 50% light truck and 50% passenger car

• The rate of development and adoption for new steels and aluminum for automotive components will not be significantly compromised by the current economic problems



2009 North American Light Vehicle Body and Closure Steel Trends

AHSS, 4.9%

HSS, 28.7%

MILD, 66.4% AHSS,

12.4%

HSS, 36.2%

MILD, 51.4%

AHSS, 9.3%

HSS, 32.9%

MILD, 57.8%

2007 Full Frame

AHSS, 7.8%

MILD, 62.7%

HSS, 29.5%

AHSS, 16.3%

HSS, 35.5%MILD,

48.0%

AHSS, 13.7%

HSS, 33.7%

MILD, 52.6%

2007 Unibody 2007 Total

2009 Full Frame 2009 Unibody 2009 Total

994 Pounds 765 Pounds 851 Pounds

946 Pounds 773 Pounds 790 Pounds



2009 AHSS for North American Light Vehicle for Body and Closures

176168

150136

108 101

6857

38

0

100

200

A B C D Average E F G H

There are large differences by OEM

in the amount of Dual Phase, Martinsitic

and Boron steels used for body structures

Poun

ds P

er V

ehic

le

OEM

20%

5%8%

8.2%

12%13.7%18%

21%24%

Percent is the AHSS share of total body/closure weight



71.8

12.2

85.4

25.9

110.7

40.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2005 2007 2009(e)

AHSS other than DPDual Phase

North American Light Vehicle Trend for Flat Rolled UHSS and AHSS(Net Pounds per Vehicle)

84 lbs.

111.3 lbs.

150.8 lbs.

15% CAGR

Net

Pou

nds P

er V

ehic

le

16.5% CAGR



North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content- History and Forecast -

265 27

5 285 29

5 307 31

6 322

318

324

258

0

100

200

300

400

73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09F

Aluminum Pounds per Vehicle

Aluminum in terms of pounds, but not as a percent of curb weight actually declined in 2008. 2008 would have been 324 pounds and 2009 could be as high as 329 pounds if full frame and light truck vehicles should happen to maintain their 2006 share of the market.

Poun

ds P

er V

ehic

le

Calendar Year



2009 Light Vehicle Material Comparison by Application

High Strength and Advanced High Strength Steel

Aluminum

548 Pounds Per Vehicle92% Flat Rolled

324 Pounds Per Vehicle80% Castings

Body, Bumper & Closures 75.8%

All Other 1.2%

Chassis, Suspension,

Steering & Wheels 23.0%

Body, Bumper & Closures

3.0%

All Other 5.7%

Chassis, Suspension, Steering &

Wheels 22.6%

Powertrain & Heat Transfer

68.7%



81 84

120 13

9

165

212

258

307 31

6 322

318 32

4

355

376

394

0

100

200

300

400

Poun

ds P

er V

ehic

le

73 75 80 85 90 95 '00 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09F '10F '11F '12F '13F '14F '15F '16F '17F '18F '19F '20F

Probability

Best Case 20%Most Likely 50%Worst Case 30%

Best Case

Most Likely Case

Worst Case

North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content- History and Forecast -



North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content as a Percent of Curb Weight- History and Forecast -

2.0% 2.1%

3.9%4.5% 5.1%

6.1%6.9%

7.8%8.8%

9.8%10.7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010F 2015F 2020F

Aluminum Share as Percentage of Curb Weight

Calendar Year

77 Pounds

376 Pounds

Historical Forecast

Based on 3,500lbs. of curb weight

Honda was already over 10% aluminum weight per vehicle in 2008



110.7

40.1312

138

0

100

200

300

400

500

2009(e) 2020(f)

AHSS other than DPDual Phase

•This forecast includes light vehicle flat rolled AHSS and UHSS content for body structures (BIW), closures, bumpers, suspensions, subframes, crossmembers, cradles and wheels

NA Light Vehicle Growth Forecast for Flat Rolled Advanced and Ultra High Strength Steels2009 – 2020 (net pounds per vehicle)

Poun

ds o

f Con

tent

Per

Lig

ht V

ehic

le

150.8 Pounds

450 Pounds

10% CAGR



North American Light Vehicle Content Growth for Flat Rolled AHSS, Other AHSS and Aluminum Content for Competing Components

- History and Forecast -

ducker.comTransportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL

% o

f Cur

b W

eigh

t

Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide

0%

5%

10%

15%

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 2020

Flat Rolled AHSS Other HSS & AHSS Aluminum

3.2%

4.0%

10.6%

12.9%

11.5%

4.3%Aluminum that competes

with flat rolled HSS & AHSS

Flat RolledAHSS

Other HSS & Non Flat Rolled AHSS

HSS long product growth will be offset by HSS sheet losses to AHSS sheet

Trend line only between 2009 and 2020



North American Light Vehicle Curb Weight Material Mix

1995 2020

* 270 or less MPa tensile strength……………

Mild Steel*28.0%

HSS & AHSS24.3%

Other FerrousProducts

8.3%

Aluminum10.7%

Other Metals4.6%

All Other Materials24.1%Mild Steel*

48.6

HSS & AHSS8.4%

Other FerrousProducts11.5%

Aluminum6.1%

Other Metals3.7%

All Other Materials21.7%

3,503 Average Curb Weight56% - CAR | 44% - Light Truck

25 MPG Combined Fuel Economy

3,500 Average Curb Weight50% - CAR | 50% - Light Truck

35 MPG Combined Fuel Economy



• To help achieve the 2020 fuel economy goal we need to reduce average curb weight by at least 7% with little or no change in vehicle footprint

• Seven percent may not appear to be a significant decline in weight, but it will be a tremendous challenge for the automotive materials community which must also deal with increased safety requirements, the weight implications of hybrid and electric powertrains and continued cost pressures on nearly every front

• To obtain a 7% decrease in curb weight, Ducker estimates that we will need to replace approximately 650 pounds of mild steel, high strength steel and iron with 350 pounds of dual phase, martensitic, boron and other AHSS, 52 pounds of aluminum, 10 pounds of magnesium and 25 pounds of polymers and composites. Rubber, glass and other non metallics will need to decline by at least 40 pounds

• To achieve these goals, the industry must stay on course despite the current state of the economy. If we don’t continue to add new and improved compositions, perfect formingtechnology and develop better joining techniques at acceptable costs the 3,500 pound curb weight goal will not become a reality in the desired timeframe

Conclusions:



Thank you for your attention!

Dick Schultz – Project [email protected]

Abey Abraham – Project [email protected]

Ducker Worldwide | www.ducker.com1250 Maplelawn Drive Troy, MI 248-644-0086

Documents

Metallic Material Trends For North American Light Vehicles