MESA ANALYTICAL GUIDANCE (THEMES AND ISSUES TO MONITOR)

TURKEY

Security:

There are three types of militants active in Turkey - Kurdish, leftists, and Islamists. Most of the activity involves the Main Kurdish separatist group PKK and other factions but there has been action on the part of left wing groups as well as Islamist militants linked to aQ. Also, need to keep an eye on ultra-nationalist right-wing activity

From time to time there are small and even medium-sized bombings in places like Istanbul and other key cities as well. Security forces and Kurdish rebels are engaged in fighting in the southeastern parts of the country.

Every now and then there are airstrikes and ground operations conducted by the Turkish military against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq. These have become pretty routine but do need to keep an eye on a major offensive.

Political issues:

The main political fault line in the country is that between the ruling Justice & Development Party and the country’s military-led secular establishment. Need to watch for any/all moves in this regard from both sides. These could be meetings between top government officials such as PM/President and the military chief or moves from key players in the judiciary, academia, and business community. At present this govt-establishment struggle is being played out in the context of the Ergenekon probe launched by the government against current and former military officers and their civilian allies who the ruling AK Party claims is/was trying to oust them thru a coup. Watch for arrests of suspected members of the shadowy Ergenekon group and the response from the ultra-secularists. The government is also trying to amend the constitution so we will need to watch for how it is proceeding with this and what kind of obstacles it faces from the establishment.

The moderate Islamist Fethullah Gulen social movement with complex ties to the ruling AK Party is an emerging sore point in the country, especially because it is expanding its influence in the law enforcement community. Watch for how the various elements of the Kemalist establishment seek to counter the movement. Monitor the statements and actions of the government in this regard as well.

How to deal with the country’s Kurdish minority is an ongoing theme. The government trying to reach out to the Turkish Kurds in order to enhance the governing party’s influence within the Kurdish community and isolate the PKK. Watch for how the government pushes ahead its policy. More importantly, pay attention to how the Kemalists, especially the military reacts to the government’s initiatives.

International Relations:

Turkey is in the process of shedding its hitherto image of simply being a pro-western ally to emerging as an independent player with interests in the Middle East, the Caucuses,

Central and South Asia. Watch for Ankara’s diplomatic moves in the Arab-Israeli conflict (Syria, Palestinians), Iraq, Azerbaijan, Armenia, the Stans, and Afghanistan/Pakistan.

Turkey’s involvement in the Middle East brings it into competition with Iran, especially as The Turks move beyond the Kurds and the Sunnis and try to expand their influence among the Shia. Watch for both Turkish moves and Iranian counter-moves. Similarly, Turkish-Israeli relations are evolving so we need to see how Ankara manages its ties with the Jewish state as it emerges a player in the Islamic world.

Turkish forays into the Caucuses and to a lesser degree in Central Asia means that Ankara will have to deal with Moscow. Watch for any/all movement on the Russian-Turkish diplomatic front, especially since the Turks depend greatly on the Russians for their natural gas needs. Need to monitor relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan closely as Turkey attempts to pursue a peace deal with Armenia. Turkey is staying out of any negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh, but has to find a way to appease Azerbaijan, who is threatening to send its energy east through Russia. 

With Turkey playing with Russia and adopting an increasingly independent foreign policy posture, we will need to keep an eye on how it balances this new shift with its existing status as a U.S. ally and NATO member state.

Economics:

Turkey is the world’s 17th largest economy and a country which STRATFOR believes is on the rise to becoming a great power. Therefore we need to keep a close watch on how it is doing on the economic front, especially as it deals with the current global downturn, which caused a decline in demand for its exports in Europe.

While not desperate but Turkey is working towards what could amount to a 45 billion dollar stand-by loan from the IMF. Let us keep a track of what is happening on this front, especially since the government is under pressure from the business community to reach an agreement on the loan, which many feel is necessary to counter the effects of the recession.

Turkey sees itself as emerging as a major regional hub for the transit of energy from the Caucasus, Middle East, and Central Asia to Europe. This aim does complicates its energy relationship with Russia, which does not want to see Europe bypassing the Kremlin for its energy needs. Therefore keep a close eye on anything and everything related to this complex international web of energy relations., especially any Turkish talk on Nabucco (a stalemated project) and Turkish talk or action on building an addition line for Blue Stream (a project that has a real chance).

IRAQ

Security:

While it has greatly improved since early 2007, the Iraqi security situation needs to be watched closely, especially as U.S. effects a military drawdown from the country and the Iraqi forces assume greater responsibility for security.

Jihadists despite having taken a major hit are still around and we will need to keep an eye on attacks against Shia, security, Kurdish, and even Sunni targets. Likewise the sectarian violence has calmed down quite a bit but the relative calm is fragile so keep a close eye for any resurgence in Shia-Sunni violence. The efforts of both the Shia and the Sunni to limit the extent of Kurdish power in the north should also be monitored closely for signs that the political feud may be turning violent.

The matter of integrating Sunni militiamen into the Shia-dominated state security apparatus remains a key powder keg given Baghdad’s desire to severely limit the number of Sunni fighters it is willing to admit into the security organs. We should therefore watch for signs of recidivism and signs that of a reviving Sunni insurgency.

In addition to the inter-communal violence, there is also a great degree of intra-communal violence, especially within the Sunni and Shia communities with struggles for communal domination by rival factions. Need to keep an eye on the moves by the various factions.

Political issues:

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is trying to emerge as a powerful central ruler, especially after his bloc’s victory in the recently held provincial vote and in the wake of the coming parliamentary polls in January 2010.

Need to watch for how he maintains his grip over the Shia community and manages his rivals in the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, the al-Sadrite movement, and others.

Likewise, watch for al-Maliki’s moves to limit the power of the Sunnis and its response from the minority community. Similarly, keep an eye out for how the struggle between al-Maliki’s central government and the autonomous Erbil-based Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in the north.

International Relations:

The post-Baathist Iraqi republic as it tries to deal with deep and complex internal fissures, it has to balance itself on the external front in between the United States, Iran, Turkey, and the Arab states. Need to keep an eye on all these fronts in terms of how Baghdad is trying to find the comfortable spot in the middle of these various international forces.

Disproportionately Iran has the most influence in Iraq, especially given its historical support for the various forces currently in power during the days of the Saddam regime. That said, Tehran faces significant obstacles to consolidating its influence in its western neighbor. We need to watch for any/all signs that highlight Iranian moves and the problems it is having with players such as the U.S., Sunnis, Shia, Arab states, Turkey.

As far as Turkey is concerned, Iraq for the longest time was about the Kurdish threat but more recently Ankara sees the need to reclaim its old influence over the country. We need to follow the Turks as they seek to make friends with the Kurds, align with the Sunnis, reach out to al-Maliki and the Shia, and manage competition with Iran.

The Arab states have a huge interest in countering the rise of a Shia-dominated Iraqi state closely allied with an assertive Iran. We need to watch how they back Sunni groups, work with the United States and Turkey to limit Iranian ability to leap across the Persian Gulf and threaten their interests in the countries on the Arabian Peninsula, Levant, and North Africa.

The United States and Iran – as the two main outside players in Iraq – have been locked in a struggle for influence in the Arab country. Need to watch closely how Washington moves ahead to settle the issue of Iraq via its dealings with the Iranians as well as the Turks, and the Arab states.

Economics:

Some 90 percent of Iraqi revenues come from oil revenues so anything and everything oil and gas related needs to be followed closely, especially as Baghdad is in the process of getting international energy firms (western, Chinese, Russian, and others) to invest in development projects

Iraq lacks a hydrocarbons law because of a major dispute between the three principal ethno-sectarian communal groups over power sharing. Need to watch out for how this conflict between Iraq’s central government and the northern KRG plays out as well as for signs of limited cooperation and hints of movement towards the creation of a national oil law.

Pay close attention to the oil-rich northern region of Kirkuk - a key point of contention between the Arabs (Shia and Sunni) and the Kurds. Also, need to see how Baghdad is trying to develop the southern oil fields, centered in and around the Basra region. Another key thing to watch for is the struggle between Baghdad and Erbil over the legality of development contracts that the Kurds have forged with int’l firms on their own.

IRAN

Security:

With the uproar over the results of the election and the intra-conservative rift widening, the primary issue to watch for is the public unrest and the efforts of the security forces to contain it. These include arrests of key opposition figures, shutting down of communications (phones, Internet, foreign media groups).

In the long-run, on the domestic front we will need to keep an eye out for activities of Baluchi, Kurdish, Arab, Azeri, and other rebel groups in terms of bombings and clashes with security forces.

As Iran’s regime adopts a more defiant international posture, especially on the nuclear issue and in its support for militant groups (Hezbollah and Hamas) in the Middle East and it projects power into Iraq and Afghanistan, it raises the likelihood of conflict with the United States or Israel, especially the latter. Need to keep a close eye on this triangular front.

Political issues:

At the moment the single-most important issue that we need to monitor closely is how the struggle within the conservative establishment between the pragmatists and the hardliner plays out in the aftermath of the election results. Watch for statements coming out of various key players in various institutions (please read our special report published a day before the polls for background - http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090610_iran_presidential_election_and_metamorpho

sis. Also need to keep an eye on the temperature on the streets whether it is rising, steady, or decreasing. We need to also watch for evidence of electoral fraud being leaked to the press.

International Relations: The biggest issue to watch for in terms of Iran’s foreign affairs is how it will approach

the Obama administration’s offer of diplomatic engagement. For now the Iranians have to sort out the election crisis, but we need to see how the United States manages to keep a hands off approach and how Iran reacts to U.S. posture. Watch for statements coming out of both Washington and Tehran.

Iran’s controversial nuclear program will remain a critical issue for the foreseeable future and we need to watch for statements from various sides (U.S., Iran, Israel, Europe, Russia, China, etc). Be on the lookout for any signs that the U.S. and Iran are ready to negotiate and what of kind of settlement proposals are being tabled. This issue has caused considerable tension between the United States and Israel, which is why we also need to pay attention to the Israeli reaction to developments in Tehran and Washington.

Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and the Palestinian issue are the other key issue areas that the United States and Iran need to sort out. Iraq and Afghanistan being of more immediate concern need to be watched for any signs of cooperation and clash between Tehran and Washington.

Iran’s relationship with Russia is an important one as it is a means for both Tehran and Moscow to try and shape U.S. behavior. Russian diplomatic, military and nuclear assistance to the Iranians are the key aspects of this relationship. While Russia has refrained from making any serious moves but we need to see if Moscow is pressuring Iran to compromise on its nuclear program. Similarly, we need to watch for reports that the Kremlin is moving towards a possible sale/delivery of weapons systems (especially missile systems such as the S-300) to Iran. Likewise, pay attention to any signs of progress on the stalled issue of Bushehr nuclear reactor that the Iranians have long been trying to bring on line but Russia has delayed.

For both national security (vis-à-vis Israel and the United States) and power projection purposes, Iran supports a number of Islamist non-state actor proxies (Shia as well as Sunni) in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestinian Territories, Persian Gulf Arab states, Yemen, and Afghanistan. We need to watch for all developments related to Iran’s management of these assets, which include: Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militias, Hamas, and even the Taliban.

Iran has, since the early 1980s, enjoyed key relationship with Syria – its only Arab state actor ally. But Tehran is concerned about Syria’s recent move to align with Turkey and pursue negotiations with Israel in order to regain its influence in Lebanon and emerge as a player in the Arab world. So we need to watch for any signs of tensions or other form of evolution in the Iranian-Syrian relationship.

Iran’s main regional rival is Saudi Arabia and the two compete in Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. This historic ethno-sectarian rivalry has intensified in the wake of the rise of Tehran-backed Shia-dominated Iraqi government, especially with Iran expanding its influence in the Arab world. So we need to keep a close eye on Saudi-Iranian relations and any signs of Tehran’s involvement with the kingdom’s Shia minority.

Economics:

The biggest economic issue for Iran is how to survive under a biting international sanctions regime until it is able to settle its issues with the United States and secure the removal of the sanctions, which would allow investments to flow into the country and rehabilitate its energy sector. In the meantime, certain foreign firms do engage in limited business with the Iranians. The Iranian media and its officials always exaggerate about deals with foreign firms on various oil and gas related projects. We need to be wary of those but at the same time keep an eye on genuine deals.

The Iranian economy is in bad shape but Tehran has managed to chug along because of the export of crude. Oil prices have begun to rise and brought some respite, but Iran needs to both maintain stability at home and is engaged in highly ambitious foreign policy moves and defense spending. So we need to watch for any indications that Tehran is having to engage in cut backs on various domestic and foreign policy projects.

SAUDI ARABIA

Security:

The main security concern in Saudi Arabia is the resurgence of jihadist activity. We need to watch for signs that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which has now relocated to Yemen is making a comeback in the kingdom, which would be in the form of attacks on foreigners. This can conversely be gauged by keeping an eye on the counter-jihadist efforts of the kingdom’s security forces.

Encouraged by an ongoing reform process spearheaded by King Abdullah and the rise of the Shia in neighboring Iraq and an emergent Iran, Saudi Arabia’s Shia minority is becoming increasingly assertive. There have been recent incidents of clashes between security forces and Shia worshipers and demonstrators. We need to be watching out for public show of force via demonstrations by the Shia and clashes resulting from security crackdown.

The reform process has created tensions between the public and the Saudis religious establishment, especially the religious police trying to maintain an ultra-conservative religious public order. We need to keep an eye out for this to spill into the streets.

Political issues:

Saudi Arabia is fast approaching an impasse where the king and the terminally ill crown prince are both close to 85 and the half a dozen or so next-in-line princes are all 75 plus. What this means is that the kingdom will be going through a complex succession process. We need to keep an eye out for the expected demise of the Crown Prince and/or others falling ill. Also, pay close attention to any succession related statements or meetings.

The Saudis are trying to maintain a tough balance between a reform process and placating their historical allies, the country’s Wahhabi religious establishment. Let us be on the lookout for any signs that this balancing act is in trouble in terms of statements from religious scholars, members of the royal family.

The nascent reform process is bound to lead to calls by the public for greater reform, which coupled with the rise of the minority Shia and Ismaili communities can place additional strain on the system in transition. We need to watch for signs of public unrest whether in terms of demand for more rights and freedoms – whether it is mainstream Saudis or the sectarian minorities.

International Relations:

Iran and its Arab Shia allies are Riyadh’s biggest concern on the foreign policy front. We should watch for any developments related to the Saudis trying to check the rise of Tehran and the Shia. These could be in the form of aligning with the United States, Turkey, other fellow Arab states or support for Lebanon’s Sunni and Maronite groups, Iraqi Sunnis, Afghan Taliban, etc. Need to keep an eye on Saudi support for various non-state and state actors in this regard.

The custodianship of the two holy mosques (in Mecca and Medina), its identity as a religious state, and its petro-dollar financial prowess, the Saudis seek to be the leaders of the Arab and Islamic world. Need to keep an eye on any/all Saudi foreign policy moves in both these spheres.

As the world’s largest oil producer has allowed the kingdom a pivotal position internationally. It is able to use its energy and financial clout to seek greater influence in the international arena. Watch for any moves by the Saudis to enhance their influence behind their traditional stomping grounds in the Arab/Muslim world.

Economics:

Saudi Arabia is Saudi Arabia because of oil. Therefore we need to keep track of all oil related developments from OPEC meetings to energy development projects to existing and fresh deals with importing states.

In the last six years or so, Saudi Arabia has aggressively moved towards diversifying its economy away from complete reliance on oil. A number of mega development projects in the power, real estate, and industrial other sectors have been launched. The kingdom is not about to diversify its economy anytime soon but we need to keep an eye on these projects as they slowly transform the social, political, and financial/economic landscapes.

Given its massive reserves, the Saudis are able to play a role in international economic and financial matters. Therefore, it is essential that we follow Saudi investments overseas and its participation in global economic and financial issues such as the ongoing moves to deal with the global financial crisis and the subsequent downturn.

AFGHANISTAN

Security:

The main security issue in Afghanistan is the growing Taliban insurgency. We need to watch for its spread beyond the core Pashtun areas in southern and eastern Afghanistan to Kabul and beyond. Especially keep an eye out for Taliban activity (both in the form of classic guerilla tactics and urban terrorism) in the provinces along the Iranian, Turkmen,

Uzbek, and Tajik borders. Play close attention to the various command structures in different areas of the country as the Taliban ceased to be a monolithic organization after the fall of their government in late 2001.

With the moves towards a drawdown in Iraq and the Obama administration making Afghanistan as the main focus of U.S. military efforts in the Islamic world, we need to pay close attention to U.S./NATO counter-insurgency moves in the country. Watch out for arrival of additional forces and offensives in areas of Taliban activity, especially along the Pakistani border. In addition need keep an eye on efforts to bolster the capabilities of Afghan security forces.

As the Taliban expand their activity into areas of their opponents from the minority groups (Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara, etc) we will need to see the response from those groups. Be on the lookout for the rise of anti-Taliban militias.

Political issues:

The immediate issue is the stability of the Karzai government and the coming presidential elections on Aug 20 is an important milestone in this regard. Though Karzai is likely to be re-elected, we still need to follow all election related developments.

Negotiations with the Taliban are a key aspect of reaching a settlement in the country. We need to be keeping a very close eye on any attempts by Kabul to negotiate with the various faction of the Taliban, especially since the Karzai government has accelerated these efforts in recent months. While the Pashtun jihadist movement has rejected any such talks, so we need to watch for signs that the Taliban (or at least some of them) may be entertaining the idea of negotiations.

Negotiations with the Taliban have the potential of upsetting the power-sharing agreement between the various ethnic, ideological, and political forces. Watch out for any indications that this happening, especially among the Tajik and Uzbek minorities.

International Relations:

The United States and its western allies are struggling to put together a viable strategy to deal with the Taliban insurgency. Let us be on the lookout for any signs of a developing strategy from various U.S. government agencies and departments dealing with the issue.

The Afghan Taliban situation is organically linked to the situation in Pakistan so we need to watch for any signs that in addition to dealing with its own Taliban problem, Islamabad is playing a role in helping defuse the Afghan Taliban insurgency.

Saudi Arabia is a key player that both Washington and the Pakistanis rely on to deal with the Taliban issue, especially Riyadh’s role as an intermediary in efforts to talk with the Taliban leadership. Need to keep a close watch on Saudi moves.

Iran being the 2nd most influential neighbor of Afghanistan and with strong ethno-linguistic, cultural, and sectarian ties to the non-Pashtun minorities of country has been called upon by the United States to play a role in dealing with the insurgency. Though generally an enemy of the Taliban Iran is concerned with U.S. and Saudi involvement in the country and has therefore is backing certain factions of the Taliban. We need to watch for Iranian moves vis-à-vis its traditional Afghan allies and its support for the Taliban.

Russia as a former great power player in the country with assets in country and having major interests in the three Central Asian republics (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan) that border Afghanistan is also an important player. This is a key area in which Russia can create problems for the United States. We need to watch for Russian moves with its traditional allies in the country as well as with the Taliban.

In keeping with its aim of emerging as a major player in the Islamic world and Central Asia, Turkey has been playing a key diplomatic role by bringing together the Afghan and Pakistani governments. The United States is actually relying on Turkey to help with the Afghan issue. Ankara also has ties to Uzbek leader Abdul Rashid Dostum. Therefore, watch out for Turkish involvement vis-à-vis the Taliban insurgency.

Though it has a small and largely impassable border with Afghanistan, China has an interest in making sure that the situation in Taliban does not get out of hand such that it begins to affect the situation in its Muslim northwestern province of Xinjiang. It is also considered that Uighur Islamist rebels have sanctuary in Afghanistan as well as Pakistan’s tribal areas along the Afghan border. Thus, China is another player that we will need to keep a track of in the context of Afghanistan.

Finally, India, which does not have a border with Afghanistan, has been deeply involved in reconstruction and development work in Afghanistan in the wake of the fall of the Taliban regime. But now with the Taliban staging a comeback, New Delhi is concerned about its own security, especially as a regional nexus of Taliban, Kashmiri militants, and al-Qaeda have managed to de-stabilize its western neighbor and foe, Pakistan. Furthermore, the complex relationship between this militant landscape and Pakistan’s army-intelligence establishment is a major cause of concern for New Delhi. Therefore, the Indians have a major interest in the Afghanistan-Pakistan theatre and thus its movements will also need to be tracked closely.

PAKISTAN:

Security:

Being the global headquarters of al-Qaeda and in the grip of a raging Taliban insurgency, jihadism constitutes the biggest security issue. We need to watch the activity of the various Taliban groups that control territory in the North-West Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and stage suicide attacks in the country’s core province of Punjab. On the counter-jihadist front, we need to closely follow the operations of Pakistani forces waging an offensive in the greater Swat region, and are in the process of expanding it to the Waziristan. U.S. UAV strikes in the tribal areas aimed at eliminating al-Qaeda leaders and operatives also need to be tracked closely.

While it deals with the largely Pashtun jihadist insurgency, the Pakistanis are also combating a low-to-medium intensity ethno-tribal insurgency in Baluchistan province. Since there is overlap in the areas of the Taliban and the Balcuh rebels we need to be able to distinguish between events related to the two insurgencies.

In another part of the country and in its largest city, Karachi, there is a lot of ethnic, political, and organized crime related violence that needs to be separately tracked.

Political issues:

Unlike the bulk of its history in which the army has been the dominant force in the country, today, the Pakistan is a much more segmented and complex polity with the army, a civilian government, divided parliament, different parties (PPP, PML-N, ANP, and MQM) ruling the various provinces, and an assertive judiciary, sharing power. Therefore, we need to watch the interplay of each of these stake-holders.

We also need to pay attention to the country’s very diverse Islamist landscape, which in addition to the jihadists, includes Kashmiri militant groups, numerous Islamist parties, madrassahs, ulema organizations, etc.

In the past seven years with the rise of private media, growth of communications technology, and influx of investments during the Musharraf years, a vibrant secular civil society has emerged, which plays a key role in both society and politics.

India

Security:

India has a slew of security threats that need to be monitored:

Islamist militancy – most Islamist militancy in India is concentrated in Jammu and Kashmir state. Militant activity in Kashmir should be monitored and sent to MESA list, but usually doesn’t require repping unless a major incident takes place. The key thing to watch is for attacks or plots by Islamist militant groups, such as LeT, JeM, SIMI, etc. – all of which are Pakistan-backed, have some indigenous support and are responsible for most of India’s large-scale attacks. The Indian media reports a lot on threats, thwarted plots, arrests, etc. – monitor these closely, as we have a number of clients concerned about security in India.

Keep an eye out for any threats to MNCs, IT companies, etc. Naxalite insurgency – Naxalites, or Maoists, mostly operate in India’s rural areas, but

have been trying to expand into urban areas as well. Most attacks are run-of-the-mill, and should be sent to MESA list for situational awareness purposes (no need to rep unless appears to be a major attack). Keep an eye out for any Naxalite activity in urban India.

Northeast insurgencies – There are a slew of separatist/tribal groups operating in India’s far-flung northeast. ULFA is the most prominent of these groups and is typically responsible for the larger attacks. Keep track of militant activity and ceasefires in this region and send to MESA list, but these usually do not require repping unless a major attack takes place.

Defense: (FOR NATE TO FILL OUT)

Defense – India is trying to privatize more of its defense industry; Track any major defense deals, particularly between US/India, Russia/India, Israel/India

Track Indian military exercises – location, date, other participants, focus of exercise, etc. Shifts in troop deployments, particularly along Indo-Pak and Indo-Chinese borders Monitor Indian defense journals so we can keep track of strategic thinking among

defense community Any developments pertaining to reorganization of Indian security apparatus, including

intelligence apparatus (RAW, IB, Military Intelligence), police forces, border security, paramilitary

Indian naval expansion --

Political:

Internal politics in India can by dizzyingly complex, but monitor statements and actions from the central government and key states, such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh.

Watch to see how central government deals with states on its periphery, particularly in the NE since now Delhi is paying more attention to Chinese activity on its border in Arunachal Pradesh

Monitor political rivalries between mainstream political parties (Congress, BJP) and second and third-tier parties that support ruling coalition. There is no need to get into the nitty gritty of this, but watch for large-scale defections and any major policy decisions by chief ministers of key states

Watch power politics in Congress party, especially as Rahul Gandhi (son of Sonia Gandhi) is being groomed for a top position

International Relations:

India likes to play a very careful balancing act with its friends and rivals. No longer constrained by the Cold War construct, India is now warming up to the US, which has Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, etc. nervous

Key relationships to monitor: US-India, Russia-India, China-India, Pakistan-India, Afghanistan-India – anything in political, economic and defense spheres

India is on edge over Pakistan’s jihadist problem and is worried about the spillover effect – look for any comments or actions by India in relation to Pakistani instability, particularly as Kashmiri Islamists appear to be teaming up with transnational jihadists

Monitor any Indian activity in Afghanistan extremely closely – including reconstruction work, political/econ/defense ties, talks with warlords or militant groups, etc.

Watch Sino-Indian tensions – India is getting antsy about Chinese military and civilian infrastructure build-up in Tibet along the Arunachal Pradesh border.

There are rumors that India will send 50k troops there, but no word on when, where those troops would come from, etc. Look for any further info on this and any shifts in troop deployments.

India considers Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Bhutan as its turf. Watch for any dealings between India and these states, especially in response to moves by other players in the region, like China and Pakistan.

Watch how India handles post-civil war Sri Lanka. This is the time for India to consolidate influence on the island, but faces competition from regional rivals. Watch for statements and actions by the Indian government as it tries to balance between support for Tamils and keeping close to Colombo to edge out the competition

Economics:

Indian economic policy is always one step forward, two steps back. Watch for any major policy decisions, both at central and state level for key states listed above. Look for discrepancies between central and state policy.

Watch for any signs that foreign investors are becoming disillusioned with ‘Shining India’ and are shifting operations elsewhere

India hasn’t been that badly hit by the global economic crisis, but monitor policy moves in dealing with the crisis, GDP growth estimates, new banking regulations, etc.

Agricultural reform is a huge, lagging issue for India – look for any developments on this front

India still has a number of protectionist tendencies – watch for any adjustments to trade policies

India is struggling to meet its energy needs when out outbeat by China in overseas projects – watch any overseas energy deals. Keep track of rhetoric on Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, but understand that this pipeline is simply a political tool and is unlikely to happen.

Monitor tensions between private-run energy firms like Reliance with central government Monitor development of two major oil and nat gas projects – one in Rajasthan by Cairn

Energy and another offshore project in Krisna Godvari basin India has to heavily subsidize its population to hang onto popular support, look for

changes in subsidization policies, particularly when it comes to fuel subsidies Monitor SEZ development in India – usually they will announce a project, protests will

erupt, and the government backs off Monitor major foreign investments in India, ie. New automobile plants, steel plants, tech

companies, etc. Economic nationalist tendencies, particularly toward the Chinese Any signs of Indian energy companies reducing or ceasing business with Iran, or signs of

US encouragement to do so

Israel

Security/Defense:

Indications of war preparation – shifts in troop deployments, calling up reservists, large-scale drills, military exercises

Changes in military command Any reorganization of security and intelligence apparatus Hezbollah – monitor IAF flights in Lebanon, any statements by political, defense, intel

officials on Hezbollah and their military capabilities Hamas, et al – Track Israeli reaction to Palestinian militant activity, IAF strikes,

indicators of new ground offensives Any talk on how Israel intends to resolve the issue of Hamas and Hezbollah underground

tunnel networks Announcements on new security measures Monitor any development regarding the Iranian nuclear threat – including assessment on

when Iran will get the bomb (these statements are typically designed for political purposes), any assessments on what it would take for Israel to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities

Any new defense acquisitions or pending defense deals Missile defense systems – Nate will elaborate

Political

Netanyahu currently has a relatively weak coalition, split between the left-wingers (Barack’s labor party) and the right wingers, like Lieberman. Need to keep a very close eye on any shifts among the political parties that might indicate a break-up of the coalition, ie. A party threatening to bolt

Keep an eye on Tzipi Livni. She is in the opposition now, but still a key player in the government and a major rival to Netanyahu. Need to monitor the Netanyahu-Livni-Barak dynamic

Big political issues that can make or break coalitions – West Bank settlements, the division of Jerusalem, funding for religious education, Golan Heights – monitor all of these closely. Israel also puts out a lot of opinion polls on these issues that need to be tracked

International Relations

The US is Israel’s great power patron, but that relationship can come under strain. Obama is pushing the West Bank settlement issue and US and Israel disagree over how to deal with Iran – watch for any signs of this relationship coming under further strain, ie. WB settlement expansion, defiant statements toward US on Iran, etc.

Turkey is resurging and taking on a leadership role in the region. Israel and Turkey were bound by a Cold War dynamic and Israeli-Turkish military ties remain strong, but the potential for the two to rub each other the wrong way is higher now, esp with an Islamist-rooted AKP in power in Ankara. Watch for any strains in this relationship.

Israel has a strategic interest in maintaining its relationship with Egypt, but watch for tensions over responsibility for Hamas in Gaza, attempts to interdict supplies for Hamas coming through Egypt, etc.

Any developments related to Israeli-Syrian negotiations, including demands of Syria on Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, proposals over Golan Heights and water rights

Israeli rhetoric on Iran always provides good clues on the political dynamic between Israel-Iran and Israel-US.

Israeli dealings with Russia – Israel has a unique relationship with Russia – Israel knows Russia can mess with it through defense deals to Syria and Iran, while Russia knows Israel can mess with it through defense deals to countries like Georgia. Watch any meetings, deals, etc. between Israel and Russia closely.

Watch how Israel deals with Fatah-controlled West Bank v. Hamas-controlled Gaza – Israel wants to keep the two divided, and usually does so by providing more econ and security concessions to West Bank

Economics:

Developments in Israel tech/defense sectors Basic econ indicators Israel is one of the few countries that has been faring quite well despite the global econ

crisis, but keep an eye on any regulatory shifts or budget adjustments

Egypt

Security:

Prominent jihadist groups in Egypt – Egyptian Islamic Jihad and Gamaah al Islamiyah – both linked into the AQ network. There are also a number of smaller jihadist groups in Egypt, but the Egyptian security apparatus does a good job of breaking them up and playing on their rivalries. Watch for any jihadist statements, activity, security threats related to these groups.

Egypt has a history of jihadist attacks on tourist targets, particularly against the Sinai resorts – watch for any foiled plots, arrests, threats, etc.

Security crackdowns are common, especially against the Muslim Brotherhood – keep track of physical crackdowns, but also media crackdowns to prevent opposition groups from organizing

Egypt is threatened by Hamas (which is an outgrowth of the MB) in Gaza. When something flares in Gaza, always need to monitor the Egyptian reaction closely as it tries to keep Hamas contained and Israel at bay. Watch to see how Egypt tries to resolve the issue of Hamas underground tunneling and supply networks that run through the Sinai

Shifts in troop deployments – changes to security treaty with Israel that would allow Egypt to deploy more regular troops to Sinai

Military reshuffles, defense acquisitions

Political

Most of Egypt’s attention is absorbed by its pending succession crisis. Mubarak is grooming his son, Gamal, but he is unpopular among the public. Watch for any moves by Gamal as he tries to take on a more prominent political role. Also watch Suzanne Mubarak (Gamal’s mom) who is fighting to make her boy president.

Watch closely intel chief Omar Suleiman, who is the most likely successor to Mubarak should Gamal not make the cut. See if Suleiman starts to take on a more prominent political role instead of mostly staying behind the scenes as he does now.

Watch Mubarak’s health like a hawk, including rumors that he’s sick or any notable absences. Try to keep track of when he appears in public or if he’s been out of sight for a while

The Muslim Brotherhood is the largest opposition party in the country and poses the biggest threat to the NDP’s hold on power. Watch MB moves, including protests, participation in elections, public outreaches, public statements against the government or in support of groups like Hamas

Cabinet reshuffles

International Relations

Egypt’s relationship with the US has been dicey lately as the US has relied more on other regional powers to promote its interests and has pressed Egypt occasionally on human rights stuff. Watch for further strains, cuts in aid, snubs, etc.

Egypt used to be a much more prominent player in the region and was lead mediator for disputes pertaining to the Palestinians, Syrians, etc. Now, its role has been mostly eclipsed by the Saudis and the Turks. Watch and see if Egypt tries to reclaim its leadership role

Egypt is nervous about Israel-Syria talks b/c it doesn’t want to see Syria as a competitor and wants HZ’s powers curtailed. Watch for any Egyptian reaction to these negotiations and to HZ

Egypt has a strategic interest in maintaining a decent relationship with the Izzies, but watch for when things go sour over things like Hamas and keep an eye out for cross-border tensions

Economics

Basic economic indicators – Egypt usually does not have good news for GDP growth, unemployment, etc.

Shifts in regulatory environment, particularly as Egypt has been hit pretty badly by the global econ crisis

Major foreign investment deals Emerging markets Shifts in trade policy – Egypt can become very vulnerable to food shortages, which can

rapidly lead to political instability

Syria

Security/Defense

Syria has an extremely robust security/intel apparatus and is extremely paranoid over any security incidents in the country. Syrian state media will try to cover up any sort of instability, but keep an eye out for:

Crackdowns – pay attention to which social group is being targeted. The Syrian regime is run by a minority Alawite-Baathist sect. Any crackdowns against the majority Sunni population is highly significant; crackdowns against Kurds are notable, though more frequent

Syrian intelligence runs a jihadist supply chain that runs a high risk of incurring blowback on the regime. The regime also likes to stage manage ‘jihadist attacks’ from time to time to make itself appear as a fellow victim of jihadism (yes, super shady). Any sort of militant attack in Syria is a rare even and thus significant. Pay close attention to tactical details, ie. Place, date, time, explosives used, modus operandi, target. Look for any inconsistencies in reporting.

Watch for any Syrian announcements on rounding up militants – usually they are looking to gain favor with the US, Israel, etc. by making such moves

Reshuffling in military, intelligence posts – lots of intense family relationships/rivalries in the regime to keep track of. Reshuffles in Syria are not typically routine.

Anything on Syrian chem./bio/nuclear development

Troop movements – There is always potential for Syria to move into Lebanon again should it feel compelled. Any Syrian movement on the Israeli border is also highly significant.

Political

Elections in Syria are pretty much a sham that works in favor of the Syrian Baath party, but keep an eye out for any signs of the regime allowing greater political competition. Keep track of any shifts in Sunni v. Shiite balance in government

Cabinet reshuffles – again, lots of family politics to track within the al Assad clan

Crackdowns – security, media, etc. – it’s usually pretty easy to tell when Syria is feeling especially paranoid internally

International Relations

Syria maintains ties with Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, etc, but it’s foreign policy is much more complex than that. Syria’s priority will always remain Lebanon – look for any sign of Syrian activity in Lebanon, including intelligence (this usually comes from insight), military (troop movements), political (Syria has a web of relationships with main Lebanese political figures), economic (border closures, new legislation on controlling flow of works to and from Lebanon, new investment, etc)

Syria’s relationship with Hezbollah is under strain because Syria primarily views HZ as a tool that can be expended down the line, but for now must at least be contained. Keep an

eye out for any signs of strain between Syria and HZ – I expect this to start coming out in the open more as the relationship worsens

Syria is attempting a complex balancing act where it maintains its relationship with Iran, HZ, but also tries to make gestures to US, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, etc. to gain diplomatic recognition. The US is learning slowly that Syria’s negotiating act is very mercantilist in nature (ask for a lot, give little in return), but watch for these gestures and reciprocation. Any Syrian diplomatic visits must be tracked closely, particularly with the Saudis, Turks, Americans, French

Watch for any developments on the Israel-Syria negotiating track – any comments on Hezbollah, Golan Heights, water rights

Turkey is increasing its clout in the region and Syria will likely do its best to stay out of its way and play nice with Ankara. Watch the Syrian-Turkish dynamic.

Economic

Keep track of all the standard economic indicators

Watch where foreign investment into Syria is coming from and what sectors it’s going into – usually the Gulfies led by Saudi will use their petrodollars to influence Syrian behavior. Turkey may also be trying to do the same so watch where the Turks are throwing their money.

Monitor any developments/investments related to Syrian energy sector (Syrian oil has already pretty much peaked)

Any sign of Syria diversifying its economy

Syrian economic activity in Lebanon – investments, banking, remittances, etc.

Lebanon

Political

Beware – Lebanese politics can be crazy confusing for the uninitiated and there is a ton to sort through in the open source. Most of the political bickering doesn’t need to be repped but ask me if you have any doubts.

Main political figures to watch – Soon-to-be Sunni Prime Minister Saad al Hariri; President Michel Suleiman; current PM Fouad Siniora (likely to be demoted soon); Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrallah, Naim Qasim, parliamentary spokesperson Mohammed Raad; Druze leader Walid Jumblatt (he switches sides all the time)

Look for any signs that the Lebanese government or military is attempting to curb Hezbollah’s military capabilities or contain the group’s political influence. Hariri has a quiet agreement with HZ right now to protect their military arsenal, but that could always flip and HZ will then flip out

Any moves to reform the country’s power-sharing structure (Sunni PM, Christian President, Shiite Speaker)

Any strange developments or military movements in Beirut’s southern suburbs or Bekaa Valley (both are Hezbollah strongholds)

Security/Defense

Monitor Hezbollah military activity – any signs of preparation for war – tunnel building, reconstruction, communications systems built

UNIFIL movements – particularly interested in UNIFIL withdrawals (could be indicator of war)

Clashes break out frequently in Lebanon – keep track of which groups are clashing with whom. Oftentimes, Syria will use their militant proxies in Syrian Nationalist Social Party to start trouble with other groups

Car bombs, assassinations, etc. are a favorite Lebanese pastime – whenever something like this happens, get all tactical details – time, location, tactics, amount of explosives, target, irregularities, eyewitness reports, etc

Israeli overflights and troop movements on border; Israeli statements on Hezbollah

IRGC movements in Lebanon

International Relations

Beirut is a spies’ den – most active players in Lebanon are Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, US, France, Qatar – monitor any activity, visits, deals, etc. by these states closely

Relations between Syria and Hezbollah are on the rocks as Syria is working to contain HZ and bargain with US/Israel. Look for any signs of tension between Syria and HZ or any signs of Syria selling out HZ in statements, arrests, etc. (most of this will come thru insight)

Economics

Standard economic indicators

Any significant investments into Lebanon (usually reflective of political competition between foreign players)

Big shifts/investments in Lebanese banking sector (this is the heart of the economy, along with drug trade, which is Syria-HZ controlled)