14
Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937

Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

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Page 1: Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

Merrill Lynch conference

Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance

14 -15 September 2009

National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937

Page 2: Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

2

Economic conditionsAnnual growth in global trade, global GDP and OECD economies - 1970 - 2010

Real GDP % change year on year 3 month interbank rat es in key markets

System credit growth % change year on year

ONS, ABS, SNZ, Datastream, NAB Forecasts Datastream

RBA, RBNZ, Bank of England, NAB ForecastsIMF, OECD, Datastream, NAB Forecasts

-10-7-4-1258

1114172023

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-4-3-2-1012345678

World trade (LHS axis)

World economic Growth (RHS)

OECD growth (RHS)F

-4-202468

1012141618

Jan 90 Jan 93 Jan 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11

ForecastAustralia

New ZealandUnited Kingdom

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Mar 79 Mar 84 Mar 89 Mar 94 Mar 99 Mar 04 Mar 09

Forecast

AustraliaUnited Kingdom

New Zealand

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan 88 Jan 91 Jan 94 Jan 97 Jan 00 Jan 03 Jan 06 Jan 09

United Kingdom

New Zealand

Australia

Page 3: Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

3

Australia continues to outperform with the peak in unemployment lower than previously expected

Australian business confidence is now near 6 year highs

Actual outcomes have also improved albeit that partly reflects the timing of fiscal initiatives

After a flat H2 in 2009 GDP to increase by 2% in 2010. Unemployment to peak at around 6.7%

With the RBA also likely to be the first to move rates away from emergency lows

Index

Aug99

Aug00

Aug01

Aug02

Aug03

Aug04

Aug05

Aug06

Aug07

Aug08

Aug09

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Seasonally adjusted*

Index

* Seasonally adjusted by NAB

Average

Trend (SA)

1990s recession level

Business Confidence (monthly)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Aug99

Aug00

Aug01

Aug02

Aug03

Aug04

Aug05

Aug06

Aug07

Aug08

Aug09

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Trend (SA)

1990s recession level

Business Conditions (monthly)

* Seasonally adjusted by NAB

Average

Seasonally adjusted*

IndexIndex

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Australian Labour Market

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Dec

-85

Sep

-86

Jun-

87M

ar-8

8D

ec-8

8S

ep-8

9Ju

n-90

Mar

-91

Dec

-91

Sep

-92

Jun-

93M

ar-9

4D

ec-9

4S

ep-9

5Ju

n-96

Mar

-97

Dec

-97

Sep

-98

Jun-

99M

ar-0

0D

ec-0

0S

ep-0

1Ju

n-02

Mar

-03

Dec

-03

Sep

-04

Jun-

05M

ar-0

6D

ec-0

6S

ep-0

7Ju

n-08

Mar

-09

Dec

-09

Sep

-10

% c

hang

e -

12 m

onth

s to

3.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.0

% -

rate

EMPLOYMENT - LHSUNEMPLOYMENT RATE - RHS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jun03

Dec03

Jun04

Dec04

Jun05

Dec05

Jun06

Dec06

Jun07

Dec07

Jun08

Dec08

Jun09

Dec09

Jun10

Dec10

Jun11

Dec11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

US

Europe

UKAustralia

NZ

Japan

% %

Page 4: Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

4

Group result

$m Mar 09 Sep 08 Mar 09 v Sep 08Mar 08 Mar 09 v Mar 08

RWA ($bn) 352.4

0.75%0.54%0.57%ROA

8.31%Tier 1 ratio

ROE

Cash earnings (incl IoRE)

Charge to provide for bad and doubtful debts

Underlying profit

Operating expenses

Net operating income

12.7%

2,027

(1,811)

4,744

(3,770)

8,514

11.9%

1,679

(1,763)

4,097

(3,678)

7,775

16.8%

(2.7%)

15.8%

(2.5%)

9.5%

17.4%4,041

(9.4%)2,237

7,639 11.5%

(3,598) (4.8%)

(726) Large

Dividend per share (cents) 73

20.7%

7.35%

343.5

97

6.90%*

336.4

97

80bps

3bps

96bps

2.6%

(24)

(410bps)

(18bps)

141bps

4.8%

(24)

Half year to Change

* Basel ll proforma

Page 5: Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

5

Individual business performanceHalf year toHalf year toHome currency

Mar 09m

1 Other represents Central Functions, GWB and Asia

2 Other represents Central Functions, GWB, Asia, IoRE and distributions

209MLC

4,744Group underlying profit(83)Other

1,035nabCapitalNZ$417NZ Region

£238UK Region

1,808Business & Private Banking

Underlying Profit

158MLC (pre IoRE)

2,027Group cash earnings

(247)Other345nabCapital

NZ$228NZ Region

£50UK Region

Cash Earnings

1

2

896Retail Banking

1,015Business & Private Banking

Change%Sep 08

(21.7)267

15.84,09730.8(120)79.15787.5NZ$388

(9.8)£264

6.41,699

(16.0)188

20.71,679

Large(81)Large(417)

(6.2)NZ$243

(54.5)£110

12.0800

(6.0)1,080

(5.4)481

Change%Mar 08

(32.4)309

17.44,04134.6(127)41.673111.2NZ$375(6.3)£254

20.11,506

(28.2)220

(9.4)2,237

(2.5)(241)(7.5)373

(4.6)NZ$239

(64.0)£139

22.9729

7.1948

8.6419455Retail Banking

Page 6: Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

6

June 2009 quarter trading update

� Unaudited cash earnings approximately $0.9bn1 – reflecting continued solid performance under difficult economic conditions

� Group revenue slightly lower than 1H09 run rate. Australia Banking and Global Markets Division continued to be areas of particular strength

� On track to deliver cost growth at around inflation for the full year

� Asset quality has continued to weaken across all businesses reflecting the economic cycle. Group 90+dpd and GIA/GLAs 177bps 30 June 09 (138bps 31 March 092)

� 3Q09 Group B&DD charge $1,064m

• Specific provision B&DD charge $859m, of which approx one third related to a small number of individual name exposures

• Collective provision B&DD charge $205m, mainly reflecting further downgrades in customer credit quality across all businesses

• Provision coverage remains strong

� FY09 funding target of $19bn achieved; started pre-funding FY10

� Customer deposit flows continued to be strong. Conservative liquidity position maintained

Key points

1 The June Quarter result is based on management financial information and has not been subjected to external auditor review

2 March 2009 adjusted to include impaired loans at Fair Value

Page 7: Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

7

Australia United Kingdom New ZealandnabCapital Economic Cycle Adjustment ABS CDOs

Provisions and coverage

0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%1.40%1.60%

Mar 07 Sep 07 Mar 08 Sep 08 Mar 09 Jun 090.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

Coverage ratios

Basel II RWAs

Business

Retail Single Names>$25m

-100

200

500

800

1,100

1,400

1,700

2,000

Mar 07 Sep 07 Mar 08 Sep 08 Mar 09 June 09

B&DD charge

($m)

($m)

527645

1,3162,309

2,649

3,545

B&DD charge

Specific Provision balances

Collective Provision balances

0

500

Mar 07 Sep 07 Mar 08 Sep 08 Mar 09

1,000

1,500

2,000

($m)

Specific Provision Collective ProvisionEconomic Cycle Adjustment ABS CDOs

Mar 08 Sep 08 Mar 09

268 378668

126

8859

522

179200

Mar 08 Sep 08 Mar 09

Total B&DD charge

Collective Provisions as % of Credit Risk Weighted Assets (ex Housing) (LHS)

Total Provisions as % Gross Loans and Acceptances ( RHS)

Quarter

Page 8: Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

8

Tier 1 movement in the June 2009 quarter^

^ As presented in the ASX announcement dated 22 July 2009. Based on the Tier 1 capital number as at 30 June 2009 and does not reflect movements in capital subsequent to that date.

^^ Primarily relates to movements in Foreign Currency Translation Reserve net of FX impact on Goodwill (-7bps), DTA deductions (7bps) and other (1bps).

Dividend (net of DRP

participation)

Net RWAmovement

Avivaacquisition

BNZ hybrid

Change inUK pension

deficit

Reversal of

non-cash earnings

Other^^ Jun 09 Institutionalplacement

Jun 09 Pro-forma

8.768.31

(0.12) (0.07) (0.15) (0.10)

(0.13)

8.06

0.06

0.25

0.140.01

0.56

6.00

6.25

6.50

6.75

7.00

7.25

7.50

7.75

8.00

8.25

8.50

8.75

9.00

Mar 09 Cash Earnings

%

proformaDRP

underwrite 8.20%

Page 9: Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

9

Funding and liquidity

Term funding

H1 – FY08H2 – FY08

28

Term funding tenor

H1 – FY09

Sep 07 Mar 08 Sep 08 Mar 09

Customer Funding Index Term Funding Index

($bn)

FY08 FY 09 (YTD)

Group Stable Funding Index (SFI)

56% 53% 56% 57%

76%72%70%72%

16% 17% 16% 19%

3.5 3.9 4.1

Weighted average maturity (years) of term funding

FY07 FY08 FY09 (YTD)

2.5

Liquid asset holdings

Mar 08 Sep 08 Mar 09

29

19

39

29

37

8

29

13

29

Mar 07 level Liquids above Mar 07 level Internal securitisation

($bn) 87

6679

16

12

32

* Over 50% of term funding raised in H2 (FY09) in n on governmentguaranteed format

16.5

15.5

H2* – FY09

Page 10: Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

10

Portfolio^

Group Contribution (FY08):�RWA�Cash Earnings 1

Key Businesses

48%55%

12%24%

8%8%

32%13%

�Business/Corporate (Aust)

� Institutional Wealth (Aust)

� Insurance (Aust)

�Markets

�Retail (Aust)

� Investments/ superannuation

�Asset Management

�Private Wealth (Aust)

Strong position, with growth opportunity

Significant upside from continuing reinvention

^ As presented in the Strategy Update dated 12 March 2009

�BNZ (NZ)

�GWB (US)

�Asia

�CYB (UK)

�nabCapital – (non franchise activity2)

Smaller businesses,

resilient in tough conditions

Unsatisfactory returns today in tough conditions

Focus in AustraliaMaintain value, innovation &

options internationally

Restructure nabCapital

Note: (1) Cash earnings excludes conduit write-offs and Group Funding distributions on hybrids(2) includes CDOs and other non-franchise activity

Page 11: Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

11

Leading Business Banking Position� No. 1 business lending market share¹ 20.2% (~30% SME ) – YTD improved 133 bps� No. 1 business deposits market share¹ 24.1% - YTD imp roved 161 bps� Highest business customer satisfaction of the major banks² (in $5M - $100M segment)

Source: Internal¹ RBA / APRA monthly banking

statistics July 2009² East & Partners business

customer satisfaction monitor July 2009

³ Includes all points of presence where a business banking relationship manager is located

^ ABA / Cannex total business lending (including institutional) market share rank by state July 2009

WA�31 sites�Rank No 3^

QLD� 49 sites� Rank No 1^

NSW/ACT� 61 sites� Rank No 3^

VIC/TAS� 52 sites� Rank 1^

SA/NT� 26 sites� Rank No 3^

Leading Business Banking presence across Australia³

Page 12: Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

12

Creating a broader, stronger wealth business

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

TransactionA/C

Mortgage Super Investment Margin Loan Insurance

Source: Survey of Income and Housing 2005-6, Confidentialised Unit Record Files (ABS 6553.0); Internal data as at 30 September, 2007; BCG analysis, ABS Household wealth and wealth distribution, detailed extract (October 2007)

Product Penetration of HNW Relationships

Combining MLC, nab private wealth and nabInvest creates a wealth division with substantial growth opportunities by;

� targeting all customer segments including opportunity in HNW

� participating across entire wealth value chain addressing revenue weakness in direct asset management

Segment Advice Product MoM Asset Mgmt

Retail

HNW

Institutional

Relative Position: Weak Moderate Strong

Australian Direct Asset Managers –Funds under Management: 2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Co

lon

ial

Mac

qu

arie

Sta

te S

tree

tF

utu

re F

un

dA

MP

Cap

ital

Van

gu

ard

QIC

ING

Au

stra

liaA

llian

ceB

GI

Per

pet

ualBT

Ch

alle

ng

erB

NY

Mel

lon

Bla

ckro

ckP

IMC

OP

eren

nia

lN

AB

/ML

CC

red

ut

Su

isse

UB

SM

emb

ersE

qu

ityD

EX

US

Ind

ust

ryL

azar

dP

latin

um

Map

le-B

row

nIN

G R

eal

Su

nco

rpC

apita

l In

tD

euts

che

Page 13: Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

13

Our priorities

� Keep the bank safe

Additional emphasis

�Accelerate efficiency, quality & service agenda�Accommodate slower recovery scenario �Lead platform replacement & convergence

�Ignite common purpose for people�Develop enterprise leaders�Step out from industry in reputation

�Deposit funding�Capital allocation

� Tight management of costs

� Invest in leadership & culture

Continued momentum

Page 14: Merrill Lynch conference · Merrill Lynch conference Mark Joiner, Executive Director Finance 14 -15 September 2009 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 2 Economic conditions

14

For further information visit www.nabgroup.com or contact:

Nehemiah Richardson Lyndal KennedyGeneral Manager, Investor Relations Manager, Investor RelationsMobile | 0427 513 233 Mobile | 0400 983 038

Disclaimer: This document is a presentation of general background information about the Group’s activities current at the date of the presentation, 14 September 2009. It is information in a summary form and does not purport to be complete. It is to be read in conjunction with the National Australia Bank Limited Half Year Results filed with the Australian Securities Exchange on 28 April 2009 and the 2008 Annual Financial Report lodged with the Australian Securities Exchange on 17 November 2008. It is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. These should be considered, with or without professional advice, when deciding if an investment is appropriate.

This announcement contains certain "forward-looking statements". The words "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "project", "forecast", "estimate", “outlook”, “upside”, "likely", "intend", "should", "could", "may", "target", "plan" and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Indications of, and guidance on, future earnings and financial position and performance are also forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of the Group, that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these statements.

Note: Information in this document is presented on an ongoing operations basis.

This document does not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States, or to any person that is, or is acting for the account or benefit of, any U.S. person (as defined in Regulation S under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”)) (“U.S. Person”), or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer would be illegal. Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, U.S. Persons without registration under the Securities Act or an exemption from registration.