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Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

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Page 1: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Merrill LynchChemical Conference

Robert BlakelyChief Financial Officer

March 20, 2002

Page 2: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Statements in this presentation relating to matters that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are just predictions or expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially, based on factors including but not limited to future global economic conditions, access to capital markets, industry production capacity and operating rates, technological developments, the supply demand balance for the products produced by the Company and its joint ventures, competitive products and pricing pressures, increases in raw material and/or energy costs, changes in governmental regulations and other risk factors. For more detailed information about the factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially, please refer to Lyondell Chemical Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2001, which was filed in March 2002.

Page 2

Safe Harbor Language

Page 3: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 3

Roadmap to Success

Executing our Strategic Plan

Prudently Managing Quality Assets

Delivering Results in Difficult Environment

Positioned for Significant Returns in Up-Turn

Page 4: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 4

Lyondell Chemical Company - Intermediate Chemicals and

Derivatives

– World’s leading producer of PO and derivatives

– 100% Ownership

Equistar - Petrochemicals and Polymers

– A leading North American producer of ethylene, propylene and

polyethylene

– Low cost position based on feedstock flexibility and scale

– 41% Ownership

LCR - Refining

– Unique capability to refine heavy crude oils

– Contractually stable business; strong cash flow generator

– 58.75% Ownership

Lyondell Operates in 3 Major Businesses

Page 5: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 5

Strategy for Value Creation

Page 6: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 6

TDI

PO / SM

SM

MTBE

Butanediol /derivatives

Propyleneoxide

Propyleneglycol / ethers

Consumer products

Grocery sacks Toys Packaging

Polyurethanes Auto seating Furniture CASE

Antifreeze / deicersResins / solvents

PharmaceuticalCoatingsPlastics

Intermediate Chemicals & Derivatives Markets

PolyesterAntifreeze

PO / TBA

Ethylene

Toluene

Benzene

Propylene

Methanol

EO / EG

Polyethylene

Lyondell Methanol Co.

Equistar

LCR

Polypropylene

Businesses are Integrated and Costs Optimized

Automotive

Page 7: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 7

Leading Positions in All Key Products

* Source: CMAI, LYO capacities as of 1/1/02

Product Annual Capacity* Capacity Position

1st in North America

1st in the world

1st in North America

3rd in the world

1st in North America

1st in the world

2nd in North America

3rd in the world

2nd in North America

6th in the world

3rd in North America

3rd in the world

Ethylene (lbs) 11.6 billion

Propylene Oxide (lbs)

Styrene Monomer (lbs)

MTBE (bbl/day)

3.9 billion

3.7 billion

58,500

Propylene (lbs) 5.0 billion

Polyethylene (lbs) 5.7 billion

Eq

uis

tar

IC&

D

Page 8: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 8

Sustainable Advantages in Key Businesses

Refining – Strong Cash Generation Heavy Crude Processing Capability Unique “Deemed Margin” Contract Improved Operational Reliability

IC&D – PO Cost and Technology Leadership Proprietary Process Technology Leader Global Production Base Important Derivative PositionsPetrochemicals – Low Cost Advantage Feedstock flexibility historically provides 4 cpp

variable cost advantage

Page 9: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 9

Equistar Capability

NGL

37%

Liquid

63%

N. American Industry

(ex. Equistar)

NGL

78%

Liquid

22%

Liquid Cracking Variable Cost Advantage

Feedstock Flexibility is a Key Advantage

Source: ChemData,

Ethane - Light Naphtha Cost of Ethylene Spread

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

¢/l

b e

thy

len

e

Source: CMAI and Lyondell.

Prior 15 Yr Average

Page 10: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 10

Reduced Fixed Costs

2000 2001 % Change

Lyondell 566 471 -17%

Equistar 921 917 0%

LCR 271 253 -7%

Page 11: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 11

Day

s o

f W

ork

i ng

Cap

i tal

Reduced Working Capital

2001 Cash fromWorking Capital: LYO $128MM Equistar $282MM*

0102030405060708090

1998 1999 2000 2001

Lyondell Equistar

* Includes elimination $130 million AR securitization

Page 12: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 12

Prudently Managing Assets

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1999 2000 2001 2002 LE

Equistar Lyondell

($M

M)

Disciplined Capital Expenditures

PO11 Spending

Page 13: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 13

Minimal Near Term Debt Maturities

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

$MM

Lyondell Equistar

Debt Maturity Schedule

1 – LYO Revolver Expires

1

Page 14: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 14

Significant Liquidity

Lyondell Equistar

Cash Balance 12/31/01 $146MM $202MM

Revolver 12/31/01 $500MM $500MM

Total Liquidity $646MM $702MM

1 1

1 – excludes amounts committed against letters of credit at December 31, 2001

Page 15: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 15

Debt Reduction Still a Priority

Total Lyondell Debt

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1998 1999 2000 2001

($,

MM

)

$3.1 B reduction

Page 16: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 16

Equistar Transactions

Lyondell Sells Package of Securities to

Occidental

– 30 – 34 million shares of Series B stock30 – 34 million shares of Series B stock

– 5 million, 5 year $25 warrants5 million, 5 year $25 warrants

– Payments equivalent to 7.38% of ’02 & ’03 Payments equivalent to 7.38% of ’02 & ’03

Equistar distributions up to $35 millionEquistar distributions up to $35 million

Lyondell buys Occidental’s 29.5% share of

Equistar

Page 17: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 17

Normalized Equistar EBITDA1 = $1.0 billion

Increase in proportional Equistar EBITDA $300 millionImpact of $300 million of Lyondell debt reduction $0.12/share

Impact of Occidental Transaction on Cash Generation and Earnings Potential

Impact of $0.01/lb margin increase on Lyondell EPS

Before AfterEthylene 0.24 0.32Polymers 0.14 0.19

Impact of potential accelerated debt reduction . . .

1 - Pro forma assuming 1993 (trough) and 1995 (cyclical upturn) CMAI cash margins, Equistar product capacities as of 2002 and up to $280 million of cost savings resulting from Equistar formation.

Page 18: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 18

Ethylene Demand 1970-2002United States

5000

15000

25000

35000

45000

55000

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Mn

Lb

s

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

% C

hg

GD

P

GDP %AGR Ethylene consumption

?

Past Demand Contractions Were Followed by Periods of Strong Growth

Source: DRI & ChemData

Page 19: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Page 19

Roadmap to Success

Executing our Strategic Plan

Prudently Managing Quality Assets

Delivering Results in Difficult Environment

Positioned for Significant Returns in Up-Turn

Page 20: Merrill Lynch Chemical Conference Robert Blakely Chief Financial Officer March 20, 2002

Merrill LynchChemical Conference

Robert BlakelyChief Financial Officer

March 20, 2002