Upload
others
View
41
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
June @ 2016
From Technologies to Markets
Event
MEMS & Sensors for
Smart Buildings
2
MEMS &
Sensors
LED
Compound
Semi.
Imaging Photonics
MedTech
Manufacturing
Advanced
Packaging
Batteries/Power Management
Power
Electronics
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Yole Développement’s 30 analysts operate in the following areas
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
With 4 BUSINESS MODELS:
o Consulting and Analysis• Market data & research, marketing analysis• Technology analysis• Strategy consulting• Reverse engineering & costing• Patent analysis
www.yole.fr
o Reports• Market & Technology reports• Patent Investigation and patent infringement risk analysis• Teardowns & Reverse Costing Analysis• Cost Simulation Tool
www.i-Micronews.com/reports
o Financial services• M&A (buying and selling)• Due diligence• Fundraising • Maturation of companies• IP portfolio management & optimization
www.yolefinance.com
o Media• i-Micronews.com website• @Micronews e-newsletter• Technology magazines• Communication & webcast services• Events
www.i-Micronews.com
3
WORLD POPULATION & HOUSEHOLDS GROWTH
From the « population bomb » to a « household explosion »
4
Cities today represent2% of the world surface
50% of the world population
75% of the consumed energy
80% of the economic activity
80% of the green house emission
Smart City definition from the UNECE (The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe) :
our “Smart City” should be inclusive, resilient, safe, sustainable and “more connected”
SMART CITIES: KEY FACTS
By 2050, the world will be one-third rural (34%) and two-thirds urban (66%), roughly the reverse of the global rural-urban population distribution of the mid-twentieth century.
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
World’s urban and rural populations, 1950-2015 (source: United Nations)
5
ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS OF THE 10 LARGEST URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS
In 2014, Tokyo was the world’s largest city with an agglomeration of 38 million inhabitants, followed by Delhi with 25 million.
©2016 | www.yole.fr |
source: United Nations, 2014 study
6
WORLD POPULATION & HOUSEHOLDS GROWTH
• As the average number of people living in a household is decreasing, the same number of people today live in twice as many homes.
• While world population will grow at 0.61%
over 2000-2100, the number of households will grow at 1.02% (almost twice as much).
0,9
1,65
6,1
11,2
0,11 0,33
2,03
5,60
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1800 1900 2000 2100
Bill
ion
s
1800-2100 World population & Households Evolution
Total population
Households
Number ofpeople/households
7
WHY BUILDINGS HAVE TO BECOME SMART
40% of total energy consumption is for buildings
IBM source
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
Source TERI University
Energy consumption is an
issue for homes and
buildings: 40% of US
energy is for buildings
Heating + Lighning + cooling = 60%
Heating + Lighning + cooling = 51%
Source TERI University
9
THE HOME MARKET HAS ITS OWN DYNAMICS
Homes & buildings have lifetime far larger than the two most largest sensors market (consumer and cars). Thus, sensors have to prove high reliability at least for commercial buildings (10+ years)
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
Smartphone
ASP $500
Average lifetime:
2 years
Car
ASP $23k
Average Lifetime:
10 years Commercial
building
ASP $1M
Average
Lifetime: 30+ years
House
ASP $200k
Average Lifetime:
60+ years
10
WHY BUILDINGS HAVE TO BECOME SMART
• To achieve greener and more secure homes/buildings, a shift in sensing from basic functions (such as light switch on/off)
to more advanced functions is required
• Switch on/off, dimmer, occupancy control, motionless people detection, people localization, people counting, fire detection,reduced false alarm, people behavior analysis.
• The rate of unoccupied offices can be as high as 50% (home office, business trips, medical leaves …), leading to extracost into renting, HVAC … this is something challenging to monitor. Through optimization and control with smartsensors, office costs can be reduced by 35%.
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
11
SCOPE OF THE ANALYSIS
etc …
Sensors module
Wireless
connectionSensors
Smartphone, tablet
SCOPE OF THE
ANALYSIS
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
12
FROM AUTOMATED BUILDINGS TO COGNITIVE BUILDINGS …
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
1980 2015 2030 2040
Automated building• « basic » features:
surveillance, HVAC
control …
• Cannot identify energy
waste
Smart building• Start understanding energy
consumption issues
• Only localized datapoints
Cognitive building• Predictive control
• Understand energy and occupancy
• Consider users preferences
• Needs to cope with HUGE amount
of data
Artificial Intelligence will be more & more needed
13
FUTURE CARS & SMART HOMES/BUILDINGS SENSORS NEEDS
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
ENGINE
MANAGEMENT
COMFORT SAFETY
ENERGY
CONTROL
COMFORT SECURITY
10 type of
Sensors
17 type of
sensors
27 type of
sensors
9 type of
sensors
5 type of
sensors
6 type of
sensors
Cars & Smart Homes share the
same trends:1. Energy optimization
2. Passenger/inhabitant comfort
3. Safety & Security
COMFORT SAFETY
ENERGY
CONTROL
COMFORT SECURITY
14
SMART HOME, WE ARE AT THE VERY BEGINNING
• We are at the very beginning of the smart homes/smart buildings adoption curve. Main barriers today are:
• Still a limited consumer demand
• Long device replacement cycles
• Too many standards and devices with interoperability issues and making it difficult for the consumer to set up and control multiple devices.
• But:
• BMS are heavily investing into this market, followed by Gafams and large IT companies.
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
Smart building functions
15
THE SMART HOME/BUILDING FEEDBACK LOOP
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
SENSORS
VOICE
CONTROLSENSOR HUB WIRELESS
YOU
BMS
HOME/BUILDING
BUDGET
CONTROL
+ +
16
ANALYZED DEVICES
Sensor systems
Gas sensors (CO2,
CO, VOC, O3 …)
Smoke sensor
Humidity sensor
Smart thermostat
Pressure sensor
Particle sensor
Microphones
Ambient light sensor
Accelerometer
Magnetic sensor
LWIR sensor (PIR, thermopile,
microbolometer …)
CMOS image sensor (VIS, NIR)Houses & residential Buildings Offices
Optimize comfort &
improve securityImprove comfort & productivity, optimize energy
consumption for building owners
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
17
SENSORS MODULES FORECAST
Total modules market
CAGR will be~23%
• Smart modules for smart homes market will grow from 13.3 million units in 2016 to more than
56 millions in 2020 with a ~23% CAGR.
• Market value will be $7,6B in 2022.
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
18
SENSORS FORECAST IN VALUE
In US$M
Gas sensors, VIS sensors, infra red sensors are fueling the growth.
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
Fire detection
IR Motion detection
CO2 sensors
2022
19
SENSORS FORECAST IN UNITS
In units
Microphone marks the beginning of a new era of interaction between people and machines
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
IR Motion detection
Microphones
Fire detection
2022
20
MICRO80GEN2 FROM ULIS
In 2016, Ulis was first to launch Thermal Activity Sensor (TAS) for Smart Building
• In 2013, Ulis and Schneider team in the MIRTIC project to develop a thermal sensor for both imagingand advanced activity sensing based on microbolometer technology:
• 80x80, 34 µm pitch
• 8-14 µm spectral response
• 16.5x16.5x5 mm
• < 5 g
• Up to 50 Hz frame rate
• NETD 100 mK
• Low power consumption: 25 mW
• MTTF > 15 yearsBased on Wafer Level Packaging: each pixel is packaged individually
(Pixel level packaging or « PLP »)
Very important for Home & Buildings applications
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
21
EVOLUTION
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
2016 2022
Strong
increase of
comfort
applications
for private
use388 Munits 980 Munits
22
SENSORS MODULES FOR SMART HOMES/BUILDINGS MARKET SHARE
In US$M value
This marketrepresents13.3 milionsunits in 2016
• Amazon with Echo / Honeywell and Nest with smart thermostat, have more than 75% market shares in 2016.
• Other players have smaller shares and there are numerous startups developing their own connected hubs for smart homes.
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
$2.46B
23
THE SMART BUILDINGS ECOSYSTEMBuildings construction Distribution
Energy (electricity, gas) Water
Building applications control systems & meters
Automation & building controls Lifts
Ligthing control
v
HVAC, boilers controlWater control
Security
Telecom & ISP providers « Gafam » IT
Household appliances
Modules and hubs
Sensors / energy harvesters
• Smart home has become a hot topic and players from various industries are now placing their bets from buildings manufacturers to sensors manufacturers.
• As for the car industry where autonomous driving attracts newcomers from the IT, “webcoms” & “gafams” are possible disrupters of the traditional supply chain.
Materials
Standards & software
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
24
ENTERING THE SMART HOMES/BUILDINGS MARKET:
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
SENSORS GATEWAY
MODULES
Temperature
Surveillance
Lighting
Some large companies are also
in the BMS business, involved
in buildings'
HVAC/Lighting/Surveillance
control systems.
AMAZON with Alexa VPA is
the first to have developed a
sensor (microphones)-based
modules. So he is also active in
Modules business.
25
ENTERING THE SMART HOMES/BUILDINGS MARKET:
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
SENSORS GATEWAY
MODULES
Temperature
Surveillance
Lighting
Companies in the modules
development and
manufacturing are the best
positioned to have access to
the smart homes/buildings
(specially HVAC/Lighting
control)
Gafams are
penetrating the
smart
homes/buildings
market through new
interfaces and AI.
Supplying sensors
“only” cannot be
sufficient to have
access to the smart
homes/buildings
market.
Partnerships are
necessary.
26
SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS
• Smart homes/buildings market is just starting. It is a promising segment of the global IoT market.
• Sensors are critical elements for smart homes/buildings as they will collect data. We estimate the sensors market forsmart homes/buildings to be $1,73B by 2022, with a total number units of 980M.
• Smart homes will also contribute to the growth of voice-activated personal assistants. In 2016, Amazon shipped 4millions Echo systems including 1 million during December 2016.
• However, this smart homes/buildings still have challenges to overcome:• The home & buildings market has a very complex and fragmented supply chain.
• This market will really be a success if the end-customer can have added value and services from its smart living environment
• A strong competition is arising between system integrators and disrupters such as Google,Amazon …
• Artificial Intelligence is becoming key to analyze the huge amounts of data and monetize them. Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook,Amazon … have entered the race for the most performing AI.
• A minimum level of standardization is required as hundreds of different platforms are emerging.
• At least, security is probably concern number one to avoid hacking.
©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
27©2017 | www.yole.fr | Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings
All data issued from our 2017 report “Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings”
Thank you for your attention