To the one with the hammer, everything looks like a nail.

Just as to the one with a skateboard everything looks lik

e a

ride

!

In our densely interconnected and inter-dependent world, leaders face great responsibilities. We are still shaking o� the dust from the last technology revolutions and now have to drive teams, communities, and entire economic blocks amidst the next tectonic shifts of society.

Blockchain, AI, M2M, and the ever more exciting quantum computing, are knocking at our door with Girlscout cookies, promises and a fresh notebook for new business modeling. But the world aches with its own market volatility and geopolitical pains, and organizations are far from being ready to roll-out.

Too many, too often, are forgetting the importance of soft infraestructure as pre-requisite for the succesful deployment of hard infrastructure.

It seems it was only yesterday that I was riding the waves of “The Internet Revolution”. It was the 90’s and I liked to call myself a cyberpunk. Bellow the surface of events, performance pressures increased exponencially and the old ways of doing things just stopped working. Companies, economies, markets and teams caved-in. Some crashed. Those were humbling and profoundly enlightening days.

Two years into medical school I realized that, with a technological revolution at the gates, business strategy and operations were best tackled from intersecting disciplines that better suit living systems and ecosystems. To endure, scale and transform or adapt, we had to approach our business ecosystems as organic and dynamic.

I then enrolled the business trenches with renewed commitment and a voracious interest for complexity sciences (CS) and biomimicry.

Some 20 years later, biological metaphors are starting to flourish across all disciplines. Being used to understand everything from urban planning and business ecosystems to policy making and organizational design.

CS span across disciplines in the physical, natural and social sciences. Providing rigorous frameworks to quarrel the issues we must face in turbulent times:

- How does change and resilience happen? - Can we alter the patterns of decline? - How to better predict issues?- How can leadership be orchestrated with no direct authority or control? - Which are the structural pre-conditions of successful innovation?

The following case studies cover some of the most rewarding interventions on strategy and operations that I’ve led, or co-led, during my 17+ years as a strategy and innovation practitioner with a focus on complex socio-technical sectors. I hope you enjoy exploring them half as much as I did while engaging in them.

Thank you for your interest!

Dear reader,MELISSA A. JARQUIN PORTFOLIO

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ComplexSocio-Technical

Sectors

PublicService

Financial Markets &

Entities

Natural Resources

TelcoWater &

Sanitation

Health &Pharma

NGO & Vertical Clusters

Power &Infrastructures

Contents

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1. Introduction 1.1. Complexity Sciences Primer. 3 1.2. Biomimicry for Design, Innovation and Sustainability. 4 1.3. Sustainability 2.0 5

2. Public Sector Case Studies

2.1. City of Bilbao and Basque Country. 6 2.2. Madrid, From Green to Alive. 7 2.3. European Single Market. 8 - European Digital Agenda, Industrie 4.0 and IoT. 9 - Energy Union EU. 10

3. Energy & Infrastructure Case Studies

3.1. Repsol 11 3.2. CLH 12 3.3. AEE: Spanish Wind Power Association. 13

4. Telecommunications Case Studies

4.1. Grupo América Móvil - Claro. - Strategic Balanced Scorecard for Telco. 14 - Analytic Intelligence Solutions. 15 4.2. Telefonica - Movistar. - Corporate strategy, expansion, and transition. 16 - Innovation: pioneering IoT. 17 4.3. Vodafone Business Services 18

5. Industrial operations and FMCG

5.1. Co-Creating CFAR with Nabisco, Walmart, Procter & Gamble, IBM, SAP, and Manugistics. 19 5.2. Kelloggs. 20

Concepts

A complex system entails many parts that interact with and adapt to each other. A�ecting their own context and outcomes. It shows global patterns as well as emergent -at times unpredictable- properties.

Complexity scientists find the patterns and critical points of intervention to positively influence the system and guarantee e�ort economy. Small actions that prove impactful. That is Controllability of Complex Dynamic Systems, a sound path towards wise, and often cost e�ective decisions.

Methods

Agent / multi-agent based modeling are simulations done in a virtual world with artificial intelligence /smart agents.

Network analysis is done by analyzing the maps or meshed relationships / links among constituents of the system. Some types of configurations are particularly stable and some are extremely unstable or fragile.

Data mining takes place through the use of massive datasets and analytic methods that are constantly evolving. Complexity scientists resort to ICT to mine, visualize and analyze nonlinear and discontinuous phenomena.Small actions or elements that prove the most impactful.

Scenario models are artificially constructed, hypothetical models of complex systems that reflecttheir key constituents and dynamics. Scenario modeling varies the conditions the systems face in order to anticipate the e�ects of various conditions and to identify policies that are robust to many likely futures.

Sensitivity Analysis methods allow the calculation of the degree to which outcomes would vary in response to changes in system parameters.

Dynamical systems models are generally sets of di�erential equations or iterative discrete equations, used to describe the behavior of interacting

Introduction MELISSA A. JARQUIN PORTFOLIO

Traditional sciences or STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) excel at the complicated but find considerate limitations that make them ill-suited for the complex.

Complexity science (CS) roots in mathematics but is an interdisciplinary field that spans the physical and life sciences, the engineering, social, cognitive and behavioral domains.

CS solves the problems that engineering can not.

parts in a complex system, often including positive and negative feedback loops. They are used to enable simulation of, among other things, the results of alternative system interventions.

This is how police in California predict and prevent crime hot-spots.

Scientists in The Netherlands also pinpoint taxes through the use of such methods.

Validation of models

Validation of social behavioral models is critical, but predictive models may not actually be as useful to leaders and managers as the existence of decision-support tools.

That is why, I have developed the following frameworks and tools to guide strategy steering and decision-making, and to embed critical abilities to a system so it becomes self-sustaining -autopoietic!

It follows that an autopoietic machine continuously generates and speci�es its own organization through its operation as a system of production of its own components, and does this in an endless turnover of components under conditions of continuous perturbations and compensation of perturbations. .-Maturana & Varela

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Complexity Sciences

Concepts

Biomimicry follows a convergence between biology and engineering, emerging as a new body of knowledge that looks at nature’s 3.8 billion years of evolution as a “design lab”. Recognizing nature’s, life-conducive, principles as a base for sustainable innovation.

Life principles are strategies, patterns, common to living organisms that allow them to survive under earth’s conditions. Better known as “sustainability design patterns”, they are fundamental units transferred from biology to other domains like technology design and development, or business strategy. Allowing systems to operate within restricted living constraints without creating waste or irreversible damage to the ecosystems. On the contrary, they enrich and sustain the ecosystems.

Introduction MELISSA A. JARQUIN PORTFOLIO

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Biomimicry for Design, Innovation and Sustainability It is estimated that

biomimicry will represent$1.6 trillion of the world’s total output by 2030..- Da Vinci Index of Biomimicry Growth, 2015

- Replicate what works.- Integrate creatively.- Reshu�e information. - Define and redefine problems.

EVOLVE TOSURVIVE

ADAPT TOCHANGE

LOCALLYATTUNED

LIFE-FRIENDLYDISRUPTION

RESOURCEEFFICIENCY

DEVELOPMENTWITH GROWTH

- Foster diversity.- Self-Renew.- Promote resilience through:a. Variationb. Redundancyc. Decentralization

- Leverage cyclic processes. - Use available materials /energy- Use feedback loops.- Cultivate coop. relationships.

- Aim at benign constituents.- Build selectively small, measure, iterate, then scale.

- Low energy processes. - Multi-functional design. - Recycle.- Fit form to function.

- Self-Organize - Build bottom-up. - Combine modular and nested.

LIFE PRINCIPLES

Sustainability 2.0European SABRE Award for “Best New Consulting Service of The Year 2012”

IntroductionThe framework was devised while deep structural changes, in a densely interconnected context, were taking place.

We noticed that our practices, distilled over a 6 year period, allowed our team to detect the trends towards critical issues, prevent them, avoid them altogether, or help our clients set in motion teams that could rapidly dive deep in adjacent opportunities.

The solutionA faster, flatter approach to strategy building that takes advantage of the wisdom of natural systems.

Through:

By: Melissa Jarquin Chief Strategy & Innovation O�cer, Inforpress

Understanding complex systems dynamics and the nature of ecosystems as applied to business and organizations.

Going beyond traditional accounting, reporting and measuring methods (hard metrics) to focus on perdurable value: the structures -soft and hard- that guarantee the production of the first.

Understanding the deepest drivers of human and social behavior to drive change.

Building capacity to go beyond mere bottom-up and top-down approaches, creating resilience and de-centralized adaptability.

Taking advantage of the latest digital technologies to accelerate the whole process.

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E-SECURE

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2

3

4

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6I-MEASURE

DIGI-BLINK

SOCIAL SPRINT

SOCIAL JUMP

SOCIAL XL

Organizational Maturity Assessment: culture | Sustainability maturity diagnosis | Social Networks Analysis | Controllability of complex networks | Materiality analysis | Digital footprint assessment | Stakeholder and issue maps | Sensitivity and brand analysis.

Capacity building: organic competencies | Bottom-up construction of vision, strategy and new structures | Baseline government reinforcement | Threat prevention plan and roll-out of enterprise-wide response processes.

Ecosystemic stage: stakeholder engagement | Community and partnership building | Knowledge management | Ongoing capacity building | Infrastructure deployments | Restructuring and sourcing.

Promotion of ecosystems and dialogue | Communications HuB Localization and de-centralization through common ethos |Shared ideation and co-creation of new business models.

Feedback loops: Integrated reporting and measurementfor decision making | Realtime Business Intelligence.

Real-time, collaborative and AGILE, dynamic monitoring and steering of systemic interventions.

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MELISSA A. JARQUIN PORTFOLIO

PUBLIC SERVICENGO & CLUSTERS

POWER &INFRAESTRUCTURE

TOURISM CONSUMERPRODS. & SERV.

PROFESIONALSERVICES

BANKSFINANCIAL INST.

HEALTH &PHARMA

MANUFACTURING EDUCATIONACADEMIA

HI-TECHHORIZONTALS

E-SECURE

The Road to Business Excellence