Meeting the Global Energy & Regional Transportation Challenge of the 21st CenturyJuly 14th, 2008 Raymond Kaiser, LEED AP

Tampa Bay Economic Development Version 1.0

Build it and they will come…

Business-as-Usual Development: an endangered species

“State-wide the MPOs are projecting a $37.7 billion shortfall to meet projected transportation needs”

Agenda

What’s the Global Energy Outlook?

What’s the real impact to the Tampa Bay Region?

What can we do to meet the challenge?

End of an Energy Era

Quick oil price history

Fall of Shah of Iran

1998: $10 per barrel

Historical price point

What’s the “official” current forecast?“Worst case” assumed $120 oil in 20+ years

Hit $120 within 90 days!

May 2008

December 2007 price forecast range

How good is the EIA’s price forecast track record?

New Discoveries have been falling for 45 years

“The world is consuming 30-plus billion barrels a year of oil and is finding 7 or 8 billion barrels a year.

This has been going on now for 20 or more years.”

Oil & Gas Journal cited by US Dept of Energy

Consumption is now 300 billion barrels every decade and growing.

Gap is accelerating.

Just 14 Fields Produce 20% of World’s Oil

The largest fields are 40-50 years old

Production peaks when fields at ½ tank or less

Supply and Demand means less is more…

The Geopolitical reality of oil

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Map of proved oil reserves at end 2006

IRAN

IRAQ

OMANUAE

KUWAIT

SAUDI ARABIA

What “price” are we willing to pay for oil?

Bringing it home to Florida …

What does this mean to this audience?

Pumping dollars out of our communitiesGallons per

year

(in thousands)

Economic Cost

1.50

per gallon

3.50

per gallon

5.00

per gallon

Hillsborough 577,545 $866 million $2 billion $2.88 billion

Manatee 137,636 $206 million $481 million $688 million

Pasco 188,845 $283 million $660 million $944 million

Pinellas 365,842 $548 million $1.28 billion $1.8 billion

Regional Impact $1.9 billion $4.4 billion$6.34 billion

$2.5 to 4.4 billion per year in direct economic impact

to Tampa Bay Region.

For Tampa Bay four county area (with annual personal income of $94.6 billion)

Personal transportation cost is $23.3 billion every year – excluding the cost of roads not covered by gas taxes.

Current community design dictates oil dependency

2050 Business-as-usual growth projection

LEED ND - A new development paradigm

A LEED rating system being developed through a US Green Building Council (USGBC) partnership with Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and the Congress for the New Urbanism (CNU)

A rating system that combines elements of smart growth, new urbanism, and green building

by default

or by design

Communities are built

LEED-ND approaches new developmentat each scale

Smart Location & Linkage

Locations that are closer to existing town and city centers

Areas with good transit access

Previously developed sites or sites adjacent to existing development

Don’t build in floodplain

Restore wetlands & habitats

The Region: Metropolis, City and Town

Compact

Mixed Uses

Diversity of housing types & products

Walkable

Diversity transit options

Connected to larger community

Accessible public spaces

Neighborhood Pattern & Design

Neighborhood, District and Corridor

Green Buildings

Reduce water and energy use

Preserve historic buildings

Minimize site damage

Keep it cool/orient toward the sun

Generate power/District Energy

The Block, Street and Building

Green Construction & Technology

A practical example…

SR 681 Development

Typical traffic study

Number of trips generated times Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMTs)

Imagine External Trip Capture – enhance inter-connectivity to neighbors

Encourage links to surrounding communities by providing sufficient level of density, diversity & interest – shopping, childcare, entertainment…

The Bottom Line – smart growth pays dividends

Compact Development reduces regional VMT 25%

Reduces driving within development by 40%

Can substantially reduce CO2 and our dependence on imported oil

Can reduce childhood obesity, hypertension and heart attacks, and isolation of elderly…

Why not design smarter?

One whole system