MEDIS is supported within the Programme on Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development, Part A: Environment and Sustainable

Development, Key Action 2: Global Change, Climate and Biodiversity; Contract no. EVK2-CT-2001-00092)

http://www.uni-muenster.de/Umweltforschung/medis/index.html

Reducing Climate-Change Reducing Climate-Change Related Vulnerabilities to Related Vulnerabilities to

Drought on Drought on Mediterranean Islands Mediterranean Islands through Holistic Water through Holistic Water Management PracticesManagement Practices

Reducing Climate-Change Reducing Climate-Change Related Vulnerabilities to Related Vulnerabilities to

Drought on Drought on Mediterranean Islands Mediterranean Islands through Holistic Water through Holistic Water Management PracticesManagement Practices

Manfred A. Lange and the MEDIS Consortium

Center for Environmental ResearchUniversity of Münster, Germany

Manfred A. Lange and the MEDIS Consortium

Center for Environmental ResearchUniversity of Münster, Germany

SICCIA; Grainau, Germany, June 28 – July 2, 2004

SICCIA; Grainau, Germany, June 28 – July 2, 2004

Introduction/BackgroundIntroduction/BackgroundIntroduction/BackgroundIntroduction/Background Global climate change will have various consequences

for natural and human systems In general, it will lead to an intensification of the

water cycle enhanced frequencies of floods and extreme precipitation

events in regions traditionally prone to this threat and increased water scarcity in already water deficient regions

of the world Shifts in the amount and timing of precipitation will

have severe consequences for arid to semi-arid regions…

and will result in increased vulnerabilities of communities and ecosystems to water scarcity

The Mediterranean Basin is characterized by arid to semi- arid climate conditions enhanced vulnerability to drought

Problems to be faced are exacerbated on islands of the Mediterranean as they rely on precipitation as the primary supply mechanism

Global climate change will have various consequences for natural and human systems

In general, it will lead to an intensification of the water cycle enhanced frequencies of floods and extreme precipitation

events in regions traditionally prone to this threat and increased water scarcity in already water deficient regions

of the world Shifts in the amount and timing of precipitation will

have severe consequences for arid to semi-arid regions…

and will result in increased vulnerabilities of communities and ecosystems to water scarcity

The Mediterranean Basin is characterized by arid to semi- arid climate conditions enhanced vulnerability to drought

Problems to be faced are exacerbated on islands of the Mediterranean as they rely on precipitation as the primary supply mechanism

Introduction/BackgroundIntroduction/BackgroundIntroduction/BackgroundIntroduction/Background Vulnerability = f (exposure, sensitivity,

adaptability) Assuming that exposure and sensitivities are

relatively stable vulnerability f (adaptability)

Reducing vulnerability requires effective adaptation strategies

In devising effective adaptation strategies, a number of aspects/dimensions need to be considered: Physical/Environmental dimension Economical/technical dimension Social/Political dimension

Aspects will have to be considered holistically interdisciplinarity

Views of stakeholders will be essential stakeholder involvement

Vulnerability = f (exposure, sensitivity, adaptability)

Assuming that exposure and sensitivities are relatively stable vulnerability f (adaptability)

Reducing vulnerability requires effective adaptation strategies

In devising effective adaptation strategies, a number of aspects/dimensions need to be considered: Physical/Environmental dimension Economical/technical dimension Social/Political dimension

Aspects will have to be considered holistically interdisciplinarity

Views of stakeholders will be essential stakeholder involvement

Vulnerability reduction

Adaptive strategies

inwater

management

Physical/ environmental

dimension

Economical/ technical dimension

Social/ regulatory /poli-tical dimension

Stakeholder Involvement

Introduction/BackgroundIntroduction/BackgroundIntroduction/BackgroundIntroduction/Background In the following, I will…briefly describe the MEDIS project,address a few concepts related to adaptation, look at issues affecting present

vulnerabilities to droughts related to the three aforementioned dimensions,

discuss briefly how global change might affect some of the vulnerabilities,

suggest various (but not comprehensively) strategies to enhance adaptive capacities,

and will concentrate on islands in the Mediterranean in the context of the MEDIS Project

In the following, I will…briefly describe the MEDIS project,address a few concepts related to adaptation, look at issues affecting present

vulnerabilities to droughts related to the three aforementioned dimensions,

discuss briefly how global change might affect some of the vulnerabilities,

suggest various (but not comprehensively) strategies to enhance adaptive capacities,

and will concentrate on islands in the Mediterranean in the context of the MEDIS Project

MEDIS - MEDIS - Goals and ObjectivesGoals and ObjectivesMEDIS - MEDIS - Goals and ObjectivesGoals and ObjectivesTo put simply:To put simply:

How can we achieve a sustainable balance between supply and

demand of water by taking into account various favourable and

unfavourable factors affecting that balance and

by complying with the requirements of the EU-WFD

How can we achieve a sustainable balance between supply and

demand of water by taking into account various favourable and

unfavourable factors affecting that balance and

by complying with the requirements of the EU-WFD

What is to be done?What is to be done?What is to be done?What is to be done?

Assessment of present characteristics: Hydrology, agriculture, socio-economy

Recommendations for a sustainable water management

Consultation with main user groups and consensus building

Hearings of experts; development of

feasible/justifiable recommendations

Proposals for a sustainable water management in the

Mediterranean

Compa-rison

between

islands

Compa-rison

between

islands

Scena-rio

studies

AA

rrooaaddmmaapp

Crete: Island Report

Stakeholder

Involvement/ input

=Intra-Island consultation

=Inter-Island consultation

Recomm-

endations

EC & capitals

Where do we work?Where do we work?Where do we work?Where do we work?

Who is doing the work?Who is doing the work?Who is doing the work?Who is doing the work? Dep. de Ingenieria del Terreno

Universidad Politécnica de Catalunya Spain

Regional Governor of Crete Greece

Universitat de les Illes Balears Dept. of Physics, Group of Meteorology Spain

Institute for Sociology University of Cyprus Cyprus

Système de l’Environment University of Corsica France

Centre for Environmental Research University of Münster Germany

Dipartimento di Costruzioni e Tecnologie Avanzate Universita' di Messina Italy

Institute for Geophysics University of Münster Germany

Foundation for Research and Technology, Hellas FORTH Greece

Institute for Geoinformatics University of Muenster Germany

National Agricultural Research Foundation Greece

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology National Environmental Research Centre United Kingdom

Adaptation/Adaptive Adaptation/Adaptive CapacityCapacity

Adaptation/Adaptive Adaptation/Adaptive CapacityCapacity

Mobilizing adaptive capacity requires: resources available for adaptation ability of those who need to adapt to deploy these

resources effectively and their readiness/willingness to do so

Such resources include:• natural resources,

• human and financial capital,

• knowledge of risks

• appropriate social institutions geared to managing these risks

• appropriate technologies and methods

Stringent policies and regulations are an essential prerequisite for the development of adaptation measures

Adaptation strategies require the incorporation of sustainable development principles

Mobilizing adaptive capacity requires: resources available for adaptation ability of those who need to adapt to deploy these

resources effectively and their readiness/willingness to do so

Such resources include:• natural resources,

• human and financial capital,

• knowledge of risks

• appropriate social institutions geared to managing these risks

• appropriate technologies and methods

Stringent policies and regulations are an essential prerequisite for the development of adaptation measures

Adaptation strategies require the incorporation of sustainable development principles

Physical/Environmental Physical/Environmental DimensionDimension

Physical/Environmental Physical/Environmental DimensionDimension

Mediterranean Basin has experienced continuous decline in precipitation this trend is likely to continue

Mediterranean Basin has experienced continuous decline in precipitation this trend is likely to continue

Substantial evaporation of available water further increase to be expected

Substantial evaporation of available water further increase to be expected

G. Constantinou, pers. comm.

Physical /Environmental Physical /Environmental DimensionDimension

Physical /Environmental Physical /Environmental DimensionDimension

Demand likely to increase in the foreseeable future, particularly under conditions of global change

Demand likely to increase in the foreseeable future, particularly under conditions of global change

Projections of water demand for different sectors on Cyprus, assuming that agricultural demand will stay constant and not considering any global change effects

G. Constantinou, pers. comm.

Physical /Environmental Physical /Environmental DimensionDimension

Physical /Environmental Physical /Environmental DimensionDimension

(a)(a) (b)(b) (c)(c) (d)(d)

Maximum 2m-temperatures for 1960-1990 (a) and Maximum 2m-temperatures for 1960-1990 (a) and 2070-2100 (b) and summer precipitations for 1960-2070-2100 (b) and summer precipitations for 1960-

1990 (c) and 2070-2100 (d) derived from the regional 1990 (c) and 2070-2100 (d) derived from the regional climate REMO 5.1 and based on the Hadley-Centre-climate REMO 5.1 and based on the Hadley-Centre-

GCM HadAM3H (Semmler, pers. comm.)GCM HadAM3H (Semmler, pers. comm.)

Regional climate model results suggest increasing temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation for the Mediterranean Basin

Regional climate model results suggest increasing temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation for the Mediterranean Basin

Physical /Environmental Physical /Environmental Dimension:Dimension:

Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options

Physical /Environmental Physical /Environmental Dimension:Dimension:

Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options Reduce water consumption

Water pricing; quotas Incentives (subsidise water saving not consumption)

Change water allocation Support sectors accounting for maximum GDP and employment,

create incentives to save water for water-intensive sectors

Reduce losses Eliminate loss of water to sea (SGD) Reduce losses and contamination of water in distribution

networks (e.g., on Cyprus: annual loss of 40 Mm3 = 15% of total demand; 23% of total domestic demand; in Paphos: 30%)

Increase utilisation of additional water resources Waste water recycling Utilisation of brackish water Rainwater harvesting

Reduce water consumption Water pricing; quotas Incentives (subsidise water saving not consumption)

Change water allocation Support sectors accounting for maximum GDP and employment,

create incentives to save water for water-intensive sectors

Reduce losses Eliminate loss of water to sea (SGD) Reduce losses and contamination of water in distribution

networks (e.g., on Cyprus: annual loss of 40 Mm3 = 15% of total demand; 23% of total domestic demand; in Paphos: 30%)

Increase utilisation of additional water resources Waste water recycling Utilisation of brackish water Rainwater harvesting

Economical DimensionEconomical DimensionEconomical DimensionEconomical Dimension Agriculture predominant user of water on the islands Agriculture predominant user of water on the islands

However, agriculture contributes only insignificantly to GDP (1,5%)and employment (2,4%) on Mallorca

Tourism, which requires significantly less water contributes substantially to the GDP (83,4%) and employment (73,3%) of Mallorca

Both sectors likely to suffer from reduced water availability

However, agriculture contributes only insignificantly to GDP (1,5%)and employment (2,4%) on Mallorca

Tourism, which requires significantly less water contributes substantially to the GDP (83,4%) and employment (73,3%) of Mallorca

Both sectors likely to suffer from reduced water availability

Economical Dimension:Economical Dimension:Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options

Economical Dimension:Economical Dimension:Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options

Support sectors with high economic potential and small water needs

Change agricultural practices (quantity, quality of water)

Eliminate/reduce subsidies for water prices Encourage changes in cultivated crops to less-water

intensive species Promote cultivation of crops that have a high

potential on the domestic and the foreign market (eliminate wasting products and water)

Provide assistance in capacity building of farmers and for investments in modern irrigation technology

Provide economic incentives for rational water use in all sectors

Support sectors with high economic potential and small water needs

Change agricultural practices (quantity, quality of water)

Eliminate/reduce subsidies for water prices Encourage changes in cultivated crops to less-water

intensive species Promote cultivation of crops that have a high

potential on the domestic and the foreign market (eliminate wasting products and water)

Provide assistance in capacity building of farmers and for investments in modern irrigation technology

Provide economic incentives for rational water use in all sectors

Social/Political DimensionSocial/Political DimensionSocial/Political DimensionSocial/Political Dimension Inadequate/false perception of the water

issue (‘water is only a problem when it is scarce’)

Competition for water (sectors, regions, municipalities, individual users)

Illegal extraction (‘wild’ wells)

Traditional ‘ownership’ (‘this water belongs to our family…’)

Existing rules and regulations are not/only inadequately monitored

Violations of laws and directives are not penalized

Inadequate/false perception of the water issue (‘water is only a problem when it is scarce’)

Competition for water (sectors, regions, municipalities, individual users)

Illegal extraction (‘wild’ wells)

Traditional ‘ownership’ (‘this water belongs to our family…’)

Existing rules and regulations are not/only inadequately monitored

Violations of laws and directives are not penalized

Social/Political DimensionSocial/Political DimensionSocial/Political DimensionSocial/Political Dimension Complex, diverse and overlapping responsibilities on the

national scale

Complex, diverse and overlapping responsibilities on the national scale

Main structure of water administration on CyprusI. Iacovidis, pers. Comm.

Social/Political DimensionSocial/Political DimensionSocial/Political DimensionSocial/Political DimensionWater management governed by

central/’outside’ jurisdiction (‘Athens bureaucrats’)

Political decisions/directives from abroad (EU-WFD)

Political decisions on new laws and regulations often with insufficient/false factual basis

Inadequate policies aimed at promoting particular utilisation of water resources

Inadequate agricultural policies and recommendations

Water management governed by central/’outside’ jurisdiction (‘Athens bureaucrats’)

Political decisions/directives from abroad (EU-WFD)

Political decisions on new laws and regulations often with insufficient/false factual basis

Inadequate policies aimed at promoting particular utilisation of water resources

Inadequate agricultural policies and recommendations

Social/PoliticalSocial/Political Dimension: Dimension:Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options

Social/PoliticalSocial/Political Dimension: Dimension:Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options

Public awareness campaign (water use, ownership, conflicts); capacity building

Implement a more complete monitoring of water extraction

Improve enforcement of existing rules and regulations

Simplify/enhance efficiency of water administration

Transfer of power to regional and local decision makers

Encourage stakeholder-controlled water management structures

Ensure/improve adequate factual basis for political decision making

Public awareness campaign (water use, ownership, conflicts); capacity building

Implement a more complete monitoring of water extraction

Improve enforcement of existing rules and regulations

Simplify/enhance efficiency of water administration

Transfer of power to regional and local decision makers

Encourage stakeholder-controlled water management structures

Ensure/improve adequate factual basis for political decision making

ConclusionsConclusionsConclusionsConclusionsThe (future) supply of water on Mediterranean

islands appears critical and requires new strategies that are to be based on a solid factual foundation

Current climate projections for the Mediterranean Basin imply enhanced summer temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation

Reducing vulnerabilities to drought will have to be based on holistically and interdisciplinarily derived strategies/measures

First recommendations aimed at reducing vulnerabilities and at realizing sustainable water management have been formulated in the context of environmental, economical and social/political dimensions

Without an appropriate involvement of major stakeholders on the islands, such solutions will not be feasible

The (future) supply of water on Mediterranean islands appears critical and requires new strategies that are to be based on a solid factual foundation

Current climate projections for the Mediterranean Basin imply enhanced summer temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation

Reducing vulnerabilities to drought will have to be based on holistically and interdisciplinarily derived strategies/measures

First recommendations aimed at reducing vulnerabilities and at realizing sustainable water management have been formulated in the context of environmental, economical and social/political dimensions

Without an appropriate involvement of major stakeholders on the islands, such solutions will not be feasible