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Medienfrühstück 2017
Wachstumsbereiche erwirtschaften gesamten Betriebsgewinn –Schweizer Stromproduktion defizitär
Alpiq Holding AG - Olten, 28. August 2017
Vontobel – General Update
Thomas Bucher, CFO Alpiq Holding AG
Zürich, Feb 12, 2018
Financial & General Recap
Alpiq is on track – HY17 messages
Strengthening the balance sheet
• Net debt reduced to CHF 726 million
• Sound liquidity of CHF 1.5 billion
• Stable equity ratio of 40.9 %
3
First strategic pillar
• Generation Switzerland business division operating at a loss
• Opening up the hydropower portfolio suspended
Second strategic pillar
• Growth areas generate entire results of operations
• Structuring of growth areas for investors is on schedule
As announced, EBITDA down on the previous year
• Low wholesale prices
• Negative currency effects
• Downtime at Leibstadt nuclear power plant / and in HY2/17
Analyst Call 2017 / UpdateAlpiq Holding Ltd.
Low wholesale prices negatively impact electricity production
SNB decision from 2015 has negative currency effect on H1/2017
Consequences of the decision to abolish the minimum EUR exchange rate
in 2015 only now apparent in H1/2017
Ø Hedging rate 2015: CHF 1.19/EUR
2016: CHF 1.19/EUR
2017: CHF 1.04/EUR
Drop in wholesale prices leads to lower hedge level
Ø Hedge level 2015: EUR 54/MWh
2016: EUR 47/MWh
H1/17: EUR 44/MWh
Forward prices at a low level for now
Ø Forward prices 2018 to 2020:
EUR 29/MWh (CAL Base DE)
EUR 35/MWh (CAL Base CH)
4
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EU
R/C
HF
Ø Spot prices
20
30
40
50
60
2018 2019 2020
EU
R/M
Wh
Forward prices - DE
As at 30 June 2017
Alpiq Holding Ltd. Analyst Call 2017
10
30
50
70
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EU
R/M
Wh
Ø Forward prices with hedge level - CH
Alpiq hedges energy and currency in advance on a three-year basis on Ø
H1 2017 Key Financial Figures
5Alpiq Holding Ltd.
Results of operations before exceptional items (EI)
• As announced, EBITDA of CHF 81 million down on the previous year
• Cash flow from operating activities includes compensation from Swissgrid (CHF 95 million)
• Net debt reduction of CHF 130 million compared to the end of 2016
Net debtEBITDANet revenue Net incomeOperatingcash flow
+15%
3457
-51
3016
-34%
158
-5239
>100%
-51
41
>100%
179
26
-15%
726856
Analyst Call 2017
H12016
FXeffect
H12017
H12016
FXeffect
H12017
H12016
FXeffect
H12017
H12016
H12017
31 Dec 2016 30 Jun 2017
CH
F m
illion
Development of EBITDAResults from Swiss electricity production lowers results
6
158163
239
FX e
ffect
-5
EBIT
DA H
1 2
017
befo
re E
I and F
X e
ffect
Cost
reduction a
nd
effic
iency im
pro
vem
ent
-34%
EBIT
DA H
1 2
017
befo
re E
I
10
Whole
sale
prices
-16
Curr
ency e
ffect
-40
EBIT
DA H
1 2
016
befo
re E
I
-30
Pro
duction v
olu
mes
Port
folio S
witzerland*
CH
F m
illion
* incl. unscheduled downtime KKL/addl for HY2
Alpiq Holding Ltd. Analyst Call 2017 / Updated
Maturity profile as at 30 June 2017Financial liabilities staggered over long term
7
1474
2027ff
43
2026
10
2025
36
2024
330
2023
214
2022
388
2021
309
2020
103
2019
317
2018
289
2017
161
30 June 2017
BondsPrivate placementsBank loans and marginingLiquidity
CH
F m
illion
Total: CHF 2,200 million
• Maturities are countered by a sound liquidity base of around CHF 1.5 billion
• Maturity profile staggered over long term without significant spikes
• Further systematic reduction of debt in the pipeline
Alpiq Holding Ltd. Analyst Call 2017
Financial liabilitiesDebt situation improved significantly
8
7268561299
19392050
3989
314395480609796997
2.32.2
2.7
3.2
2.6
4.0
H1 2017rolling
20162015201420132012
Net debt/EBITDA before exceptional itemsEBITDA before exceptional itemsNet debt
CH
F m
illion
• Net debt further reduced by CHF 130 million to CHF 726 million
• Net debt/EBITDA before exceptional items of 2.3
Alpiq Holding Ltd. Analyst Call 2017
Balance sheetremains stable
9
• Sound Liquidity of CHF 1.5 billion
• Stable Equity
• Equity ratio at 40.9%
CHF million 30 Jun 2017 31 Dec 2016 Change
Liquidity (incl. term deposits and
securities)1,474 1,524 -3%
Other current assets 2,252 2,524 -11%
Property, plant and equipment 2,666 2,705 -1%
Other non-current assets 2,938 2,985 -2%
Assets held for sale 106 114 -7%
Total assets 9,436 9,852 -4%
Equity 3,860 3,886 -1%
Financial liabilities 2,200 2,380 -8%
Other liabilities 3,356 3,566 -6%
Liabilities held for sale 20 20 0%
Total equity and liabilities 9,436 9,852 -4%
Net debt 726 856 -15%
Net debt/EBITDA
before exceptional items2.3 2.2
Equity ratio 40.9% 39.4%
Alpiq Holding Ltd. Analyst Call 2017
Stringent cost and balance sheet management dampens the decrease in earnings
10
Cost savings introduced
• Processes and systems sustainably simplified
• Complexity that had developed over time reduced
• Nearshoring continued
Efficiency improvement
A total of around CHF 400 million saved as a result of cost-reduction and efficiency improvement programmes
Cost savings
• Lower results in Swiss portfolio
Currency effect & effects of low wholesale prices
Negative currency effectof CHF 40 million
Negative effect of wholesale pricesCHF 16 million
Price effect
Balance sheet management intensified
• Non-strategic investments sold
• Selective growth investments made
• Net debt reduced
Decrease in total assets
Net debt reduced to CHF 726 million
Stable equity ratio of 40.9%
Portfolio streamlining
• Results negatively affected by the unscheduled downtime
Downtime at Leibstadtnuclear power plant
Net negative effect ofCHF 30 million in 2017
Volume effect
Alpiq Holding Ltd. Analyst Call 2017
Event after the reporting periodTax field audit in Romania
• Preliminary assessment of Alpiq Energy SE, Prague, issued by Romanian tax authority ANAF in the amount of RON 798 million (CHF 192 million) for the period of 2010 to 2014
• Alpiq has contested on account of its reasoning and the extent of the amount assessed
• Alpiq currently deems it unlikely that this assessment will result in a negative outcome for the company
➢ No liability (provision) of RON 798 million recognised in first half of 2017; disclosed as contingent liability
11Alpiq Holding Ltd. Analyst Call 2017
Opening up the hydropower portfolio suspended
• Not all criteria for
the transaction
fulfilled
• Political measures for
immediate action
under discussion as
a transitional
solution
12Analyst Call 2017Alpiq Holding Ltd.
Structuring the growth areas of investors is on schedule
13Alpiq Holding Ltd.
Alpiq Holding Ltd.
Building Technology & Design
Investors Investors Investors
GenerationSwitzerland
Digital & Commerce
Industrial Engineering
Analyst Call 2017
EBITDA before EI:CHF -2 million128 employees
EBITDA before exceptional items: CHF162 millionThree growth areas: 8,069 employees
EBITDA before exceptional items: CHF 158 million; thereof Group Centre and other companies CHF -2 million / employees as at 30 June 2017: 8,495
Outlook
Influencing factors on EBITDA before exceptional items• Persistently low wholesale prices• Negative currency effects• Cost management / increasing efficiency
Generation Switzerland• Competition distorted by regulatory conditions• Political measures for immediate action needed
D&C, IE and BT&D growth areas• Preparatory activities / market investigation 2017• Open for investors from 2018 onwards
14Analyst Call 2017Alpiq Holding Ltd.
Market, Regulatory & Implications
Druck auf die Marktpreise
16Alpiq Holding Ltd.
Marktverzerrung: Hohe Subventionen für neue
erneuerbare Energiequellen
Trotz der Stilllegung von Kernkraftwerken gibt es
Überkapazität
Geringe Nachfrage durch geringeres
Wirtschaftswachstum und erhöhte
Energieeffizienz
Niedrige Rohstoff- und CO2-Preise.
Kohlekraftwerke durch geringen Kohle- und CO2-Ausstoß sehr wettbewerbsfähig
Baseload, Germany, Forward prices 2018 [€/MWh]
Source : Alpiq Holding Ltd – Financial Analyst Conference, 6th of March 2017
CO2 price development
Decommissioning of power plants
Increased share of RES
Fuel price development
Short term (< 1y)
Rate of new installations slowing
Mid term (3-5y)
New RES capacities, increasing price volatility
LNG glut / increasing world wide gas demandChinese coal imports?
Nuclear phase out in Germany
Driver Long term (> 5y)
New RES capacities, more flexibility in the market could reduce volatility
Economic growth?Price increase to attract needed investments
Coal phase out in some European countries,Nuclear decommissioning in FR
Some coal plants put in reserve but with minor impact
OPEC intervention announced to continue
Swiss/German forward power price sensitivitySensitivity parameters
Positive impact
Neutral impact
Negative impact
EU ETS reform reduces supply of certificates
Stronger emission targets in the EU reduce supply of certificates
Strong price increase after triloguenegotiations expecting EU ETS reform
Portfolien der Stromerzeugung in Europa sind sehr unterschiedlich; das fordert unterschiedliche Strategien
18Alpiq Holding Ltd.
Stromerzeugung in Nachbarländern
Frankreich: Vor allem Nuklear
Italien: Vor allem Fossil: Edrgas
Deutschland: Vor allem Fossil: Kohle
Schweiz: Wasser und Nuklear
19 GW
Installed capacity
58%
0%2%
3%
35%
2%
62 TWh
72%
0%6%
2%
17%
3%
0%
0%
Generation mix
FossilNuclear
Other RESSolar Wind
Hydro
19 GW
Installed capacity
58%
0%2%
3%
35%
2%
62 TWh
72%
0%6%
2%
17%
3%
0%
0%
Generation mix
FossilNuclear
Other RESSolar Wind
Hydro
Profitabilität der Schweizer Wasserkraftproduktion ist nicht mehr gewährleistet
19Alpiq Holding Ltd.
Die Merit Order Kurve ist preisbildend
Peak
Nachfrage
Off-peak
Nachfrage
DE merit order, Wintertag 2017
Gre
nzkoste
n
Durchschnittliche Vollkosten CH
Wasserkraftwerke
Fix
koste
n
Grenzkosten
Kohle gelten
als
Preisreferenz
vs.
Vollkosten
Wasser
EU Länder haben auf fallende Preise reagiert und ihre nationale Stromproduktion geschützt
20Alpiq Holding Ltd.
Nationale Vorschriften - > CH für neues Marktdesign?
«energy only» Märkte
Massnahmen vorgeschlagen oder in Entwicklung
Massnahmen eingeführt
2013 2016
• Die Marktpreise setzen nicht genügend Investitionsanreize
• Zahlreiche EU-Länder führen ergänzend zum Energy-Only-Markt Mechanismen zur Vergütung von Leistung ein
• Kapazitätsmärkte, strategische Reserven etc. sind darauf ausgelegt, nationale Bedürfnisse zu decken
Partial liberalisation of the market distortscompetition
Analyst Call 2017 / updatedAlpiq Holding Ltd. 21
Electricity production operating at a loss in the partially liberated Swiss market
Taxes & dutiesAmortisation & financingOperation & maintenance
Decommissioning & waste disposal funds
1 ElCom (2017), median values2 Swisselectric3 Gösgen and Leibstadt nuclear power plants
5-year average with long-term fund performance4 Cal-17 Baseload CH (Ø 01.01.2016-31.12.2016)
Compensatory feed-in remuneration
Grid utilisation fee
Duties
Energy price
Hydropower production costs2
End customer price (household) in regulated Swiss market (incl. grid andcompensatory feed-in remuneration)1
Wholesale price4
Energy price for end customers in regulatedmarket1
Nuclear power production costs3
20.2 ct./kWh
Nuclear energy Hydropower
7.6 ct./kWh
3.5 ct./kWh
6.5 ct./kWh
5.2 ct./kWh
Regulated end customer price
Missing incentivization in a natural monopoly situation
22Alpiq Holding Ltd.
Stark unterschiedliche Margen entlang der Wertschöpfungskette
Zusammenstellung der Stromrechnung
Quellen: ElCom, Swissgrid, öffentlichen Daten
100%
Total
9.1
3.4
37%
Übertragungs- Netz
8%
0.8
3.8
Verteilnetz GebührenStrom
0.3
KEVKostendeckende
Einspeisevergütung
41%
4%0.9
9%Milliarden CHF - 2017
12%
bis 35%
bis 25%
0-5%
n.a.
mit gebundenen Kunden
freier Markt
n.a.
Marge
Starke Integration des Netzes in das europäische Netz ist Priorität
Die Schweiz ist im Zentrum vom Stromtransport in
Zentralwesteuropa und ihre Rolle wird mit der Verbreitung von
erneuerbaren Energien steigen
23Alpiq Holding Ltd.
EU-CH Bilaterales Abkommen
Die Schweiz verhandelt über ein allgemeines bilaterales Abkommen
mit der EU, einschließlich energiepolitischen Themen (nach einer
Entscheidung von 2014 zur Einschränkung der Einwanderung
ausgesetzt)
Um Zugang zu den EU-Strommärkten zu erhalten, sollte das Land
seinen Markt vollständig liberalisieren und über ein EU-kompatibles
Marktdesign verfügen
Ein Stromabkommen ist nicht überlebenswichtig; die Vorteile überwiegen aber. Die CH soll ihre
Lösung erarbeiten, sie dann mit der EU abgleichen. Nicht umgekehrt.
Die Marktöffnung ist der Ankerpunkt für alle relevante Themen
24Alpiq Holding Ltd.
Ausgangslage BFE
Marktöffnung
Schlüsselfragen
• Modalitäten Marktöffnung• Einfluss auf die CH Stromproduktion und auf die Versorgungssicherheit der CH• Ausmass eines evtl. erforderlichen Schutz für die einheimische, erneuerbare Produktion im
Hinblick auf die Ziele der ES 2050• Rahmen für den weiteren Zubau von EE in einem geöffneten Markt
Zeitplan ist sehr eng – aber entscheidend für die Zukunft
25Alpiq Holding Ltd.
Politischer Zeitplan
Energy Sector Transformation
Digital transformation isn't a threat or a risk for energy sector, but rather a leverage and a chance to enter in a new world!
Source: Handelsblatt Jahrestagung Energiewirtschaft 2016
Alpiq Holding Ltd., 2017-06-23 Vontobel Investor Forum Schweizer Stromversorger
The energy sector is undergoing a transformation
Implications
▪ Value pools will shift from traditional to new businesses
▪ Innovative energy players can drive new businesses –need to stay ahead of the game, in finding future winning models
▪ Opportunities emerge for new partnerships, with adjacent or completely different industry sectors
Phase of market evolution
Drivers
DecentralizationDecarbonization
DigitizationSector compounding
▪ Electrification across sectors
▪ Advancements in battery technology
▪ Emission regulations
▪ Changed customer behavior
▪ New market entrants and business models
▪ Improved data processing capabilities
▪ Public commitment to low- carbon society
▪ Political push towards energy efficiency and "green" power
▪ Subsidies for re-newable generation technology
▪ Political push towards liberalization
▪ Political shaping and shifting of balancesbetween incumbent and new industries
▪ Power sector as a key driver for GHGemission needs to contribute significantly in reaching reduction targets
▪ Energy efficiency targets directly affect B2B and B2C end-users who require clean energy and smart solutions to reduce energy demand
▪ Advanced analyticsdefine future industry leaders
▪ Central relevance of digital and social channels for customer interaction
▪ Unlocking of big potential in internal processes through digital
▪ New organizational and leadership challenges
Core elements
▪ Blurring sector boundaries due to increasing electrification
▪ Sectors that are especially affected include electric power utilities, mobility providers, and heating companies
▪ Volatile generation (wind, solar) will require system int-egration, via remote asset management: curtailment of load or generation, DRM/DSM
▪ Distributed gene-ration at prosumer sites will lead to new business models for B2B and B2C segments
Alpiq Holding Ltd., 2017-06-23 Vontobel Investor Forum Schweizer Stromversorger
The old energy worldAt a glance
➢ Clearly defined market roles➢ Unilateral energy flows➢ Only a few competitors
Power Plants
Transmission & DistributionNetwork
Households
Industrials
CommercialBuildings
Alpiq Holding Ltd., 2017-06-23 Vontobel Investor Forum Schweizer Stromversorger
The new Energy WorldAt a glance
Power Plants
Wind Farm withEnergy Storages
Large Buildings with PV
Utility / Community PV
Homes withPV and
Storages
E-Mobility
Industrial Arealswith
Micro-Ecosystems
Homes withPV and
Storages
Wind Farm withCogeneration
➢ Variety of diversified market roles➢ Two-way energy and data flows ➢ Many different competitors
Alpiq Holding Ltd., 2017-06-23 Vontobel Investor Forum Schweizer Stromversorger
Outlook
Alpiq is on track – HY17 and beyond
Strengthening the balance sheet
• Net debt reduced to CHF 726 million
• Sound liquidity of CHF 1.5 billion
• Stable equity ratio of 40.9 %
32
First strategic pillar
• Generation Switzerland business division operating at a loss
• Opening up the hydropower portfolio suspended
• KKL 5% transaction with BKW announced
Second strategic pillar
• Growth areas generate entire results of operations
• Structuring of growth areas for investors is on schedule
As announced, EBITDA down on the previous year at HY1/17
• Low wholesale prices
• Negative currency effects
• Downtime at Leibstadt nuclear power plant / and in HY2/17
Analyst Call 2017 / UpdateAlpiq Holding Ltd.
Q&A
Financial calendar 2018
16 May 2018 Annual General Meeting of Alpiq Holding Ltd.
27 August 2018Interim results 2018Media Breakfast and Analyst Conference Call
Full-year results 2017Annual Media and Financial Analyst Conference
26 March 2018
34Alpiq Holding Ltd. Analyst Call 2017
Disclaimer
This presentation contains statements and information about the future.
In particular, these include statements regarding management goals, financial result trends, profit margins, costs, returns on equity, risk
management or the competitive situation, and which are speculative in their nature. Terms such as “expect”, “assume”, “target”, “goals”,
“projects”, “intend”, “plan”, “believe”, “attempt”, “estimate” and their variations, as well as similar expressions, serve to clarify long-term
statements. These statements are based on our current assessments, as well as certain assumptions, and, therefore, bear risks and uncertainties
to some degree.
As a result, Alpiq’s actual results can deviate considerably and adversely from any, specifically or implicitly made long-term statements. Among
the factors that can contribute or cause such divergent results are economic framework conditions, competitive impacts, political and economic
developments in the countries where Alpiq is active, changed regulatory framework conditions on the foreign and domestic energy markets, as
well as oil price fluctuations and the margins for Alpiq products. Long-term statements made by Alpiq or on its behalf solely reflect the
assessment of a situation at a specific point in time.
This document does not represent an offer to purchase or subscribe to Alpiq Holding Ltd. securities. Decisions on the purchase or subscription of
Alpiq Holding Ltd. securities should be based solely on the official listing prospectus published by Alpiq Holding Ltd.
As provided for in Article 652a and Article 1156, respectively, of the Swiss Code of Obligations or the SIX Swiss Exchange AG listing rules, this
document does not qualify as a prospectus, and hence, investor protection regulations that otherwise apply for investors in Switzerland, do not
apply to this document.
35Alpiq Holding Ltd. Analyst Call 2017
Shareholder structure as at 30 June 2017
36
Free float
12.09%WWZ
0.91%
IBAarau
2.00%AIL
2.13%
Canton Solothurn5.61%
EBL 7.13%
EBM
13.65%
EdF
25.04%
EOS Holding
31.44%
Number of shares outstanding:
27,874,649
Consortium of Swiss minority shareholders (KSM):
31,43%
Alpiq Holding Ltd. Analyst Call 2017