Meat Case Trends

Meat Case Trends

Retail Advisory CommitteeAlbuquerque, NM

2

Data provided by the Meat Solutions VMMEAT® system sourced from FreshLook

Marketing scanner data

FreshLook Data:Represents approximately 68% of the ACVAll of U.S. and 8 standard regions (based on U.S. Census)Based heavily on chains with no independent grocers (fewer than 11 stores)Excludes supercenters, club stores, commissaries, and natural food stores

3

Part 1: Total Meat

Fresh Pork/Ham/Beef/Chicken/All Other

4

Bill

ions

% Change vs. YA 1.2% -1.8% 1.1% -2.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.8% -5.2% 0.9% -5.0% 3.1% -1.1%

2010 Avg Price $2.71 (▲3.1%) $3.63 (▲3.1%) $2.01 (▲0.9%) $2.56 (▲6.3%) $2.05 (▲6.3%) $1.92 (▲4.3%)

Total Meat – 2010 SummaryFresh Pork/Ham/Beef/Chicken/All Other

$32.6

12.1

$16.6

4.6

$7.5

3.7$5.2

2.0$1.0 0.5

$2.41.2

$-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0

Grand Total Beef Chicken Pork Ham All Other

Dollar Sales Volume

Source: FreshLook Marketing, year ending December 31, 2010

5

% Change vs. YA 3.7% -5.0% 3.9% -6.8% 3.6% -1.5% 3.6% -8.5% 7.0% 5.0% 1.8% -5.9%

2011 Avg Price $2.89 (▲9.1%) $3.78 (▲11.5%) $2.04 (▲5.2%) $2.68 (▲13.1%) $2.07 (▲1.9%) $2.96 (▲8.1%)

Total Meat – Jan/Feb 2011 SummaryFresh Pork/Ham/Beef/Chicken/All Other

Source: FreshLook Marketing, January/February 2011 vs same time period year prior

Mill

ions

$5,102

1,765

$2,626

695

$1,225

601$836

311$116 56

$299101

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Dollar Sales Volume

6

% Change vs. YA -1.0% 4.3% -1.6% 4.9% -0.4% 4.2% -2.9% 1.7% 5.5% 13.9% 5.6% 4.3%

2010 Avg Price $2.65 (▼5.0%) $3.39 (▼6.2%) $1.94 (▼4.4%) $2.37 (▼4.5%) $2.03 (▼7.4%) $2.74 (▲1.2%)

Total Meat – Jan/Feb 2010 SummaryFresh Pork/Ham/Beef/Chicken/All Other

Mill

ions


$4,918

1,857

$2,527

746

$1,182

611$807

340$109 53

$294107

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Dollar Sales Volume

7

Part 2: Share

Whole Muscle Beef/Beef Grinds/All Chicken/Fresh Pork

All Chicken25.8%

Fresh Pork17.9%

Beef Grinds20.9%

Whole Muscle Beef35.3%

8

Share BreakoutBased on Dollar Sales

2010 Dollars (Billions)

% Change vs. YA

Share Change

vs YA

2010 Average

Price% Change

vs. YA

Whole Muscle Beef $10.2 0.5% ▼-0.1 $4.37 3.5%

Beef Grinds $6.0 0.9% 0.0 $2.85 3.1%

All Chicken $7.4 1.4% ▲ 0.1 $2.01 0.9%

Fresh Pork $5.1 0.8% 0.0 $2.56 6.3%


All Chicken36.4%

Fresh Pork19.9%

Beef Grinds20.8%

Whole Muscle Beef22.9%

9

Share Breakout Based on Pound Volume

2010 Pounds

(Billions)% Change

vs. YAShare

Change vs YA

2010 Average

Price% Change

vs. YA

Whole Muscle Beef Steaks 2.3 -2.8% ▼-0.2 $4.37 3.5%

Beef Grinds 2.1 -2.1% 0.0 $2.85 3.1%

All Chicken 3.7 0.5% ▲0.9 $2.01 0.9%

Fresh Pork 2.0 -5.2% ▼-0.7 $2.56 6.3%


10

Average Pricing

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr M ay Ju ne July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2010

Whole Muscle Beef Steaks

Ground Beef

All Chicken

Fresh Pork

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2010


Ground Beef

All Chicken

Fresh Pork

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00


2010


Ground Beef

All Chicken

Fresh Pork

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00


2010


Ground Beef

All Chicken

Fresh Pork


$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00


2010

Whole Muscle Beef

Ground Beef

All Chicken

Fresh Pork

11

Part 3: Selected U.S. Pork Segments

12

U.S. Pork Segments2010 Summary

$s - % Chg vs. YA -1.2% 3.0% 2.0% 2.2% -13.5% 4.6% 6.2% -4.5% -19.0% 1.2% 2.2% 2.7%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -6.1% 0.8% -7.4% -1.2% -14.7% 3.1% 1.7% -14.5% -25.4% 0.6% -6.8% -0.4%

2010 Avg Price $2.59▲5.2%

$3.58▲2.2%

$1.83▲10.2%

$2.92▲3.4%

$2.13▲1.4%

$4.52▲1.4%

$2.73▲4.4%

$2.03▲11.6%

$2.10▲8.6%

$3.26▲0.6%

$2.03▲9.6%

$1.51▲3.1%


Mill

ions

$-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0

G rand Total Beef Chicken Pork Ham All Other

Dollar Sales Volume

$1,080

$910

$12$54

$387

$724

$282$236

$69

$539

$162$194

12880

166

190266

62111

24

295254

417

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200B

one

In

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Chop Roast Ribs

13

U.S. Pork SegmentsJan/Feb 2011 Summary

$s - % Chg vs. YA 4.3% 7.5% 5.6% -3.2% -1.5% 10.8% -3.2% 0.1% 34.9% -30.9% 5.8% 1.1%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -4.4% -0.4% -11.4% -8.7% -8.6% 1.2% -16.5% -18.2% 29.7% -42.2% -12.5% -5.3%

2011 Avg Price $2.66▲9.0%

$3.67▲8.0%

$2.05▲19.2%

$2.92▲5.9%

$2.14▲7.8%

$4.56▲9.5%

$3.00▲16.0%

$2.22▲22.4%

$3.34▲4.0%

$2.42▲19.6%

$2.24▲20.9%

$1.58▲6.8%

Mill

ions

$-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0


Dollar Sales Volume


$178

$150

$8$1

$57

$91

$52$44

$12

$99

$24$34

67

4149

4

2111

30 26

2 0.411

22

-

50

100

150

200B

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In

Bon

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Chop Roast Ribs

14

U.S. Pork SegmentsJan/Feb 2010 Summary

$s - % Chg vs. YA -5.6% -3.8% 0.8% -2.7% -18.3% 4.0% 9.6% -9.5% -24.4% -28.0% -7.0% 1.6%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -0.4% 5.0% 8.7% 0.4% -10.7% 11.2% 12.6% -6.8% -14.6% -29.9% -4.0% 0.1%

2010 Avg Price $2.44▼-5.3%

$3.40 ▼-8.4%

$1.72 ▼-7.2%

$2.76 ▼-3.1%

$1.99 ▼-8.5%

$4.17 ▼-6.5%

$2.58 ▼-2.6%

$1.81 ▼-3.0%

$3.21 ▼-11.5%

$2.02▲2.8%

$1.85 ▼-3.2%

$1.48▲1.5%

Mill

ions

$-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0


Dollar Sales Volume


$170

$140

$6 $2

$57

$94

$47$45

$12

$94

$23$34

70

41

55

5

2311

36 31

2 0.7

1223

-

50

100

150

200B

one

In

Bon

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All

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Loin

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Chop Roast Ribs

15

Part 3: U.S. Census Regions Pork Segments

16

InfoScan Standard Regions

17

South Central11.7%

Southeast14.4%

West10.4%

California9.8%

Great Lakes14.5%

Midsouth11.9%

Northeast20.6%

Plains6.7%

Regional Breakout Summary2010 Dollar Sales


18

South Central13.2%

Southeast13.5%

West10.5%

California10.7%

Great Lakes14.0%

Midsouth12.0%

Northeast19.5%

Plains6.6%

Regional Breakout Summary2010 Volume


19

CaliforniaPork Segments – 2010 Summary

$s - % Chg vs. YA -2.4% 9.7% 5.3% 8.0% -22.2% 5.2% 8.3% -3.7% 22.9% 45.3% 14.6% 11.9%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -7.0% 11.3% -5.3% 6.8% -31.4% 8.8% 0.9% -17.5% 22.4% 57.5% 11.7% 11.1%

2010 Avg Price $2.62▲4.9%

$3.43▼-1.4%

$1.62▲11.2%

$4.08▲1.1%

$2.40▲13.3%

$5.01▼-3.3%

$2.33▲7.3%

$1.88▲16.8%

$1.90▲0.4%

$2.63▼-7.7%

$1.93▲2.6%

$1.51▲0.7%

Mill

ions

$-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0


Dollar Sales Volume


$88 $84

$0.5$9

$37

$101

$17$7$3

$70

$16$28

18840.2

19

43

331

43

2434

-

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Bon

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Bon

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20

Great LakesPork Segments – 2010 Summary

$s - % Chg vs. YA -0.4% 13.0% -2.0% -20.0% -8.0% 3.6% 7.5% -4.9% -13.0% -1.4% -1.9% 4.2%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -9.2% 9.6% -14.8% -20.5% 2.3% 4.6% 4.6% -14.8% -21.0% -7.4% -17.8% -0.3%

2010 Avg Price $2.77▲9.7%

$3.46▲3.1%

$2.11▲15.0%

$2.92▲0.6%

$2.03▼-

10.1%$4.11

▼-1.0%$2.79▲2.8%

$1.83▲11.5%

$1.98▲10.1%

$3.88▲6.6%

$1.94▲19.3%

$1.57▲4.5%

Mill

ions

$-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0


Dollar Sales Volume


$126

$151

$1 $5

$61

$107

$41

$63

$11

$58

$26$15

101311

3338

10

31

4

28

4445

-

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Bon

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Bon

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21

NortheastPork Segments – 2010 Summary

$s - % Chg vs. YA 2.4% -1.4% 1.9% 4.4% -15.2% 8.9% 4.0% -1.1% -4.6% -8.4% 14.6% -4.2%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -4.5% -7.6% -4.6% -1.4% -20.4% 6.6% -1.1% -5.2% -8.1% -17.9% 6.8% -9.5%

2010 Avg Price $2.46▲7.2%

$3.53▲6.7%

$2.01▲6.9%

$2.46▲5.9%

$2.03▲6.6%

$4.55▲2.2%

$2.88▲5.1%

$2.47▲4.3%

$2.55▲3.8%

$3.20▲11.6%

$2.33▲7.3%

$1.45▲5.9%

Mill

ions

$-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0


Dollar Sales Volume


$208

$181

$1$9

$63

$111

$79

$46

$25

$117

$11$21

14530.3

2539

172310

5851

85

-

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Bon

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Bon

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SoutheastPork Segments – 2010 Summary

$s - % Chg vs. YA -1.2% -0.9% -2.2% 6.8% -26.2% 1.5% 4.3% 0.3% -47.8% -15.0% -5.8% 0.0%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -6.1% -2.5% -12.3% 7.8% -31.3% -4.3% -5.2% -10.2% -34.5% -14.1% -11.3% -4.3%

2010 Avg Price $2.80▲5.2%

$3.89▲1.7%

$1.89▲11.5%

$3.14▼-0.9%

$2.25▲7.5%

$5.16▲6.0%

$2.94▲10.1%

$2.30▲11.7%

$1.91▼-

20.3%$3.49

▼-1.0%$2.32▲6.2%

$1.65▲4.4%

Mill

ions

$-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0


Dollar Sales Volume


$184

$124

$0.4$13

$64

$100

$44

$22$11

$78

$23$32

201040.2

2834

8103

4232

66

-

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225B

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23

Part 4: Feature Items

24

$291.3$304.5

$83.6 $83.0

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

Dollars Pounds

5/17/09 - 9/12/095/23/10 - 9/10/10

Boneless Pork Chops

Source: FreshLook Marketing, 17 wks ending 9/12/09 & 9/10/10

25

1,568

1,137

1,797

1,608

238199

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

A ads B ads C ads

5/17/09 - 9/12/095/23/10 - 9/10/10

Boneless Pork ChopsAd Featuring

% Chg vs. YA ▼-27.5% ▼-10.5% ▼-16.4%

Source: Promodata, 17 wks ending 9/12/09 & 9/10/10

26

$187.1 $182.8

$92.1$84.7

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

Dollars Pounds

5/17/09 - 9/12/095/23/10 - 9/10/10

Spare Ribs

Source: FreshLook Marketing, 17 wks ending 9/12/09 & 9/10/10

27

Spare RibsAd Featuring


1,130

999

1,4211,332

241 229

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

A ads B ads C ads

5/17/09 - 9/12/095/23/10 - 9/10/10

% Chg vs. YA ▼-11.6% ▼-6.3% ▼-5.0%

This message funded by America’s Pork Checkoff Program.

Further Questions/Discussion?

Thank you!

This message funded by America’s Pork Checkoff Program.

Appendix

30

MidSouthPork Segments – 2010 Summary

$s - % Chg vs. YA -3.7% 3.1% 3.3% 4.1% -0.3% -0.7% -1.4% -8.6% -34.7% 58.2% 8.2% 2.3%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -5.7% 2.3% -7.2% -1.0% -0.8% -3.4% -4.7% -19.9% -33.1% 59.7% 2.5% -0.1%

2010 Avg Price $2.69▲2.1%

$3.73▲0.7%

$1.77▲11.3%

$2.96▲5.1%

$2.17▲0.4%

$4.31▲2.7%

$2.85▲3.4%

$1.90▲14.2%

$2.32▼-2.3%

$3.40▼-1.0%

$1.95▲5.6%

$1.66▲2.5%

Mill

ions

$-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0


Dollar Sales Volume


$140

$116

$2 $5

$52

$72

$39$37

$6

$70

$12

$2917

611

2725

917

2

3931

52

-

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Bon

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PlainsPork Segments – 2010 Summary

$s - % Chg vs. YA -12.3% -0.9% -2.0% 42.5% -1.8% -0.3% 1.8% -8.2% -16.3% 10.0% 3.8% 0.0%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -13.2% 2.1% -9.3% 56.9% -4.3% -2.7% -0.5% -4.9% -27.2% 0.7% -5.6% -0.3%

2010 Avg Price $2.95▲1.0%

$3.43▼-3.0%

$1.73▲8.0%

$3.62▼-9.2%

$2.34▲2.6%

$4.55▲2.4%

$2.66▲2.3%

$2.39▼-3.5%

$2.11▲14.9%

$3.70▲9.2%

$2.04▲9.9%

$1.63▲0.3%

Mill

ions

$-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0


Dollar Sales Volume


$61 $66

$7 $6

$19

$37

$22$12$8

$32 $33

$127

1623

814552

191921

-

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Bon

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South CentralPork Segments – 2010 Summary

$s - % Chg vs. YA -0.6% 1.2% 5.9% 14.3% -25.4% 12.1% 9.8% -4.3% -15.5% -22.6% -2.6% 3.6%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -3.7% 1.7% -5.9% 22.4% -28.7% 16.6% 8.6% -12.0% -27.0% -22.4% -10.9% 0.6%

2010 Avg Price $2.36▲3.2%

$3.63▼-0.5%

$1.55▲12.4%

$3.77▼-6.6%

$2.25▲4.7%

$4.29▼-3.9%

$2.49▲1.1%

$1.82▲8.8%

$1.57▲15.8%

$3.24▼-0.3%

$1.79▲9.4%

$1.33▲3.0%

Mill

ions

$-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0


Dollar Sales Volume


$163

$93

$0.4 $4

$41

$110

$21$24$4

$49

$25

$4030

1410.3

23

44

5101

3226

69

-

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Bon

e In

Bon

eles

s

All

Oth

er

Loin

Who

le/H

alf

Loin

Tend

erlo

in

Bac

k R

ibs

Cou

ntry

Sty

leR

ibs

St L

ouis

Sty

le

Spar

erib

s

Stea

k

Offa

l

Chop Roast Ribs

33

WestPork Segments – 2010 Summary

$s - % Chg vs. YA 1.5% 1.5% 5.5% -24.8% -15.6% 6.0% 12.2% -8.8% -9.2% -6.5% 3.9% 2.0%

Lbs - % Chg vs. YA -5.7% -2.9% -2.5% -39.1% -22.9% 6.1% 9.8% -22.2% -8.4% -2.1% -3.3% -0.6%

2010 Avg Price $2.43▲7.6%

$3.50▲4.5%

$1.86▲8.2%

$3.74▲23.5%

$2.18▲9.4%

$4.45▼-0.1%

$3.07▲2.2%

$1.91▲17.1%

$1.99▼-0.9%

$2.93▼4.5%

$2.23▲7.5%

$1.46▲2.6%

Mill

ions

$-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0


Dollar Sales Volume


$110

$95

$0.1 $2

$50

$86

$21$27

$3

$64

$16 $1712710.1

2628

512

1

3427

45

-

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225B

one

In

Bon

eles

s

All

Oth

er

Loin

Who

le/H

alf

Loin

Tend

erlo

in

Bac

k R

ibs

Cou

ntry

Sty

leR

ibs

St L

ouis

Sty

le

Spar

erib

s

Stea

k

Offa

l

Chop Roast Ribs

34

Pork Chops BonelessAd Featuring & Placement


564

452

209 183

6 6

849

572

1399

1245

223176 155

112184 177

9 160

500

1000

1500

A ads B ads C ads A ads B ads C ads A ads B ads C ads

Front Middle Back

5/17/09 - 9/12/09 5/23/10 - 9/10/10

35

Spare RibsAd Featuring & Placement


518 500

225298

13 25

536

413

1007

871

218178

76 85

187 159

8 240

500

1000

1500

A ads B ads C ads A ads B ads C ads A ads B ads C ads

Front Middle Back

5/17/09 - 9/12/09 5/23/10 - 9/10/10

Documents

Meat Case Trends