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Measuring the Contribution of Sustainable
Development Research to Society and Policy-Making
Luke GeorghiouManchester Institute of Innovation Research
Manchester Business School
Some initial trade-offs
• Research as consumption good vs research as an investment– In first case value is cultural, in second there are
users with the expectation of a return at some point in the future
• Outputs vs Impacts– Output may be scientific publication or even new
product or service but impact only realised when output interacts with economy or society eg sales or green technology or application of new regulation
More trade-offs
• Short term vs. long term– many different time-profiles over which impacts are
manifested including • short-term effects which terminate abruptly as market conditions
change • outputs which are not used for some years and then become
very important, perhaps because complementary technologies have been developed
• extrapolation is dangerous.
• Intended vs. unintended– excessive focus on project or programme goals as the basis
for evaluation could lead to important unintended effects being missed
• eg in medical research when a drug developed for one condition turns out to be important in the treatment of another
– Unintended effects also include most of those in the negative category.
INNOVATION
Problems in calculating returns to R&D
Timing
Attribution
Appropriability
RE
SE
AR
CH
EF
FE
CT
S
ICT Technology Pillars
Nano-electronics, photonics and integrated micro/nano-system
Ubiquitous and unlimited capacity communication networks
Embedded systems, computing and control
Software, Grids, security and dependability
Knowledge, cognitive and learning systems
Simulation, visualisation, interaction and mixed realities
New perspectives in ICT drawing on other science and technology disciplines
Integration of Technologies
Personal environment
Home environments
Robotic systems
Intelligent infrastructures
Applications Research
ICT meeting societal challenges
•health
•inclusion
•mobility
•environment
•government
ICT for content, creativity and personal development
•media
•learning
•cultural
ICT supporting businesses and industry
•business processes
•Manufacturing
ICT for trust and confidence
Future and Emerging Technologies
Stronger, lasting growth More & better jobs Sustainability
FP7
A more attractive place to invest and work
•Internal market
•Improved regulation
•Open competitive markets
•Expand/improve infrastructure
Knowledge and innovation for growth
•Increase R&D
•Facilitate innovation, uptake of ICT and sustainable use of resources
•Contribute to strong industrial base
Creating more & better jobs
•More employment & modernise social protection
•Adaptable workers & flexible labour markets
•Better education & skills
Revised Lisbon
Information space
Open stable markets for electronic communications & digital services economy
Innovation & investment in ICT
Deploy services
•e government
Research leadership
Investment & improvement
Effective
adoption of ICT
Inclusion & better QoL
•Knowledge society
•Social development
i2010
ICT Technology Pillars
Nano-electronics, photonics and integrated micro/nano-system
Ubiquitous and unlimited capacity communication networks
Embedded systems, computing and control
Software, Grids, security and dependability
Knowledge, cognitive and learning systems
Simulation, visualisation, interaction and mixed realities
New perspectives in ICT drawing on other science and technology disciplines
Integration of Technologies
Personal environment
Home environments
Robotic systems
Intelligent infrastructures
Applications Research
ICT meeting societal challenges
•health
•inclusion
•mobility
•environment
•government
ICT for content, creativity and personal development
•media
•learning
•cultural
ICT supporting businesses and industry
•business processes
•Manufacturing
ICT for trust and confidence
Future and Emerging Technologies
Stronger, lasting growth More & better jobs Sustainability
FP7
A more attractive place to invest and work
•Internal market
•Improved regulation
•Open competitive markets
•Expand/improve infrastructure
Knowledge and innovation for growth
•Increase R&D
•Facilitate innovation, uptake of ICT and sustainable use of resources
•Contribute to strong industrial base
Creating more & better jobs
•More employment & modernise social protection
•Adaptable workers & flexible labour markets
•Better education & skills
Revised Lisbon
Information space
Open stable markets for electronic communications & digital services economy
Innovation & investment in ICT
Deploy services
•e government
Research leadership
Investment & improvement
Effective
adoption of ICT
Inclusion & better QoL
•Knowledge society
•Social development
i2010
Overall linkage mapping can become very dense
• Previous slide shows only a selection of the more obvious linkages
• While important not to lose the argument of connected rationale must also be able to examine elements of it in isolation to allow more detailed arguments to be developed
Different logics
• Horizontal logic– Exploring interdependency between high level objectives or
between intermediate level actions (ie the proposals for FP7) as per previous example
• Vertical logic– Exploring interdependency between an objective and the
relevant parts of FP7• Can isolate as binary link, or• Consider combined effect of all aspects of the Programme on
that objective, or • Consider multiple effects on objectives of a single Programme
activity
• Systemic logic– Considering implications of change across the whole system
Vertical logic – binary chain example
• Pair of binary relationships• Overall Lisbon strategy sees increased
R&D as necessary condition for growth by making business more innovative, productive etc
• Activity here is sponsorship of pre-competitive R&D
• Stated rationale for spending on research rests on:– “European industry lags in investment cf
major competitors”– “More intensive cooperation makes most of
current capabilities”
Growth
Increase R&D
ICT Technology Pillars
Expected impacts and outcomes en route to increased R&D
ICT Technology Pillars
Immediateimpacts
Intermediateimpacts
Ultimateimpacts
ActivitiesCollaborative projects
Networks of excellence
Joint technology initiatives
etc
New consortia formed
Companies invest own resources
Technology area new to participants
More ambitious projects undertaken
papers IPR products services
New markets entered
Increased sales and cost reductions
Increased R&D
Trained researchers
Higher return on R&D
Researchers employed
Problems continued
• Timing – Effects may happen long after research– Issues of discounting
• Attribution– See previous graph – what complementary inputs
needed? Linearmodel issues
• Appropriability– Who gets the benefit from a research project?– Spillovers
Inadequacy of linear model of innovation
• On the one hand we have research which is addressed specifically to solving problems of sustainability– Eg sustainable construction
• May even be the defining characteristic of a whole field– Eg environmental monitoring
• On the other hand sustainable solutions may depend upon advances in knowledge in areas of research such as nano, bio, cognitive science and complexity where initial aim was – general advancement of knowledge; or– pursuit of a different objective
• What kind of translational model is needed?
Spillovers
• Benefits accrue to agents other than the party undertaking the research
• Rationale for policy intervention social rate of return exceeds inadequate private rate– Eg We may need to subsidise for research leading to green
technologies because market alone will not produce them
• Jaffe describes 3 types– Knowledge spillovers
• Knowledge created by one agent can be used by another without compensation, or with compensation less than the value of the knowledge
• Eg reverse engineering, imitation• May be deliberate disclosure through publication or patent
Spillovers continued
• Market spillovers– Market forces cause buyers of new product or
product made with new process to get some of the benefit because not all superiority of price reduction captured in price (consumer surplus)
• Network spillovers– Arise when commercial or economic value of a
new technology is dependent upon developments in related technologies
– Eg communication systems– Firms may fail to coordinate their activities
without intervention
Nature of socio-economic effects
Intermediate outputs
• Products• Processes• Services• Standards• Knowledge and
skills• Dissemination
Impacts/effects• Competitiveness• Employment• Organisation• Quality of life• Control & care of the
environment• Regional development • Development of infrastructure• Production & rational use of
energy• Industrial development• Regulation & policy
Nature of Social Impact
• Often public goods where government is the actual or proxy customer– benefits not captured through market mechanism– paid through taxation– enforced through legislation/regulation
• Not easily reduced to monetary equivalent– may not be social consensus on valuation of
quality of life• May be trade-off or complementary relation with
wealth creation– co-production of economic and social effects
• Introduces new stakeholders to evaluation– social groups
Science and Quality of Life*
Development of techniques to detect problems
Environmental sensors, health monitoring equipment, security systems
Development of preventative measures
Cleaner technology, healthier food
Development of methods for remediation & amelioration of problems
Land reclamation, medical treatment
Knowledge to inform better policymaking
Climate change forecasts, understanding of science behind regulations & standards
* with thanks to Ian Miles
Specific Environment Issues
• Usually link to policy or regulation• May involve inter-temporal pricing• Some environmental changes are irreversible
with implications for future generations• May not be obvious who are the “end-users”• Problem if proxy-customers not fulfilling
duties
Impact gap
R&D Effect
POLICY MEASURE (regulation,
law, standard, policy,
practice)
Evaluation A Evaluation B
Practical solutions?
• UK Government allocates block funding for University research by means of an ex post evaluation every 5-7 years– Previously called Research Assessment
Exercise– Allocated funds on basis of quality of
outputs (peer review); research environment and esteem)
• Next exercise renamed Research Excellence Framework
REF and IMpact
• Major innovation to include impact and government insisting that it will count for 25% of score
• “Impact: An assessment of demonstrable economic and social impacts that have been achieved through activity within the submitted unit that builds on excellent research. This is to assess the extent to which a submitted unit has built upon its strong record of excellent research to make a positive impact on the economy and society within the assessment period. Throughout this document, where we refer to ‘impact’ or ‘social and economic impact’, we include economic, social, public policy, cultural and quality of life impacts. “
Method for assessment• One case study for every 5-10 people entered• Impact must be evident in the 2008-12 assessment
period but could come from research up to 15 years before
• Case study includes– explanation of the nature of the impact; how far-reaching it
is/who the beneficiaries are; and how significant the benefits are
– appropriate indicators of the impact – an outline of what the underpinning research was, when this
was undertaken and by whom– what efforts were made by staff in the unit to exploit or apply
the findings or secure the impact through its research expertise
– key research outputs that underpin the impact– external reports or documents, or contact details of a user,
that could corroborate the impact or the unit’s contribution
Indicators for impact on policy
• Better informed public policy-making or improved public services• Research income from government organisations• Changes to legislation/regulations/government policy (including
references in relevant documents)• Changes to public service practices/guidelines (including
references in guidelines)• Measures of improved public services (for example, increased
literary and numeracy rates) • Staff exchanges with government organisations • Participation on public policy/advisory committees• Influence on public policy debate (for example, as indicated by
citations by non-government organisations or the media)
A framework for impact and internalising spillovers
• Understanding the relation between research and innovation
• How to transfer to more sustainable modes of development – overcome lock-in to dominant sociotechnical regimes– Put in place infrastructures and policy/regulatory frameworks
• Critical role for users and link to demand-side innovation policies
• Building constituencies including researchers• Coordination, engagement and building the capacities
and incentives for users to play a major role in the process
• Embedding in a Grand Challenge initiative more likely to succeed?
Research and policy
• Similar feedback loops to innovation
• Role of policy users – Risk of purchaser lock-in
• Is there a need for coordinated Grand Challenge Initiatives to carry forward SD research?
Conclusions
• Linkages to innovation and policy play key role in constructing agenda for SD research
• Before measuring impact we must have understanding of systemic model which links – Research and innovation– Research and policy
• The pathways and complementary or intervening factors may not be the same from one sector to another
• Without evaluation and measurement we work only on theory and belief without the assurance that an evidence base can give us
• Evidence is needed not only for managers but to reassure the stakeholders who fund and use research