Measuring Progress: Democracy in the Information Age

Jon Hall & Barbara Iasiello Global Project, OECD

Global Project on Measuring the Progress of Societies

We have to start measuring welfare, not just output

– Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary General, 2007

Today we are bombarded by information

– Jean Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, 2005

• An understanding of the limits of GDP is not new. Robert Kennedy spoke eloquently about this in the 1960s

Global Project on Measuring the Progress of Societies

• A new approach– From output to welfare– From “information providers” to “knowledge builders”– From top-down to bottom-up

• Four pillars– Statistical research– Development of ICT tools to help in transforming

statistics into knowledge– Advocacy and institutional building– Development of a global infrastructure about progress

• Time frame: 2007 - 2011

Num

ber

of u

sers

Information about societal progress

ExpertsExperts

Using ICT & Civil society networks to produce and diffuse

knowledge

A minority A minority

Building knowledge

The Istanbul Declaration, 2007

• A culture of evidence-based decision making has to be promoted at all levels of government

• We affirm our commitment to measuring and fostering the progress of societies in all their dimensions and to supporting initiatives at the country level.

• We urge statistical offices, public and private organisations, and academic experts to work alongside representatives of their communities to produce high-quality, fact-based information that can be used by all of society to form a shared view of societal well-being and its evolution over time.

Implementation 2008-2009

• Official launch of the Global Project• Implementation of programmes of work and

production of expected deliverables• Meeting of regional and thematic working groups• Establishments of national roundtables on

measuring progress• Establish criteria for approving sets of measures

of progress• 3RD OECD WORLD FORUM CHARTING

PROGRESS, BUILDING VISIONS, IMPROVING LIFE(October 2009)

•  Develop best practices to measure progress-Taxonomy of societal progress dimensions- Handbook on Measuring Progress- Guidelines on how to measure particular dimensions of progress- Launch the Journal of the Progress of Societies

• Promote the establishment of national roundtables for measuring progress-Global Project web site and development of the other communication tools- Promote regional working groups-Regional and thematic conferences with experts, policy makers, civil society, etc- Guidelines on how to build progress roundtables at local and national levels

Key Outputs 2008-2009

 

•Provide assistance on initiatives to measure progress

Training materials and coursesReport on what makes a set of key

indicators successfulRelease and promotion of ICT tools to

communicate data and indicatorsBest practice for developing data

visualisation tools

Key Outputs 2008-2009 (cont'd)

 

•Improving statistical capacity A better measurement of economic, social and environmental outcomes, of their interrelation and shared data to advocate necessary reforms and evaluate their impact on societal welfare

•Improvement of citizen's numeracy Improve citizens knowledge giving them the

opportunity to improve their decision making processes and to become more aware of the risks and challenges of today`s world•Improving policy making

Through greater accountability and more joined-up government•Better assessment of societal progress not simply based on the economic point of view, but with the appropriate emphasis on social, cultural an environmental dimensions

Expected Impacts

The OECD’s Istanbul World Forum

• 1200 people from 130 countries• Presidents, ministers, leading academics

and civil societarians, private sector and media

• What is Progress?• What information do we need to assess

progress in key global concerns?• From outputs to outcomes - how can we

get measures used by a broad audience?11

Istanbul World Forum• Istanbul Video

Measuring Progress in Practice

What is Progress?

• The word progress (Latin: pro-gredi) refers to improvements, to move forward, to gain

• We can speak about economic progress, social progress, scientific progress but above all we can talk about human progress

What is Progress?

• Many views …

“Is life getting better?”

What is Progress?

• Many views …• But what is clear to me is

A. Progress is multidimensionalB. Progress means different things

to different people

What is Progress?

Dimensions of Progress

Human wellbein

g

Governance

Culture

Economy

Resource

demand

Human system

Ecosystem condition

EcosystemSource: Robert Prescott-Allen,

2008

Human System: Human Well-being

Human System: Culture

Human System: Economy and Governance

Ecosystem: Ecosystem Condition

How to Measure ProgressThree Approaches

1. The Accounting Framework Approach

Extension of traditional economic accounts based on GDP, to capture the environment or social concerns

SESAME Approach

• The SESAME can be defined as a detailed and integrated statistical information system in matrix format, from which a set of core (macro-)indicators for different aspects of well-being can be derived (Keuning, 1997)

• Usually it includes many indicators as: GDP, population size, (un)employment, inequality, education, environmental indicators, etc.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Mining and manufacturing

Electricity, gas and water supply

Care and other service activities

Construction

Trade, hotels, restaurants and repair

Transport, storage and communication

Finance and business services

Other commercial services

General government

Total

GDP

Paid employment and self employed persons

Low education

Total employm.

High education

Low education

High education

Female TotalMale

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Source: Keuning, S., Verbruggen, M., European Structural Indicators – a Way Forward. June 2003.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Very powerful tool for analysis

Investment in terms of the amount of data to be collected and the resources needed

How to Measure ProgressThree Approaches

2.The One-Number Approach

Development of composite indicators of progress that combine detailed information into a single measure

The GPI

GDP

Add uncounted benefits (egUnpaid work, parenting)

GenuineProgressIndicator

Strengths & Weaknesses

Powerful tool for advocacy

Difficulty in aggregating units measured in different ways – adding apples and oranges, or valuing things like “parenting” in $s

Difficult to interpret the results without stepping back to investigate the components

How to Measure Well-being

Three Approaches

3. The Suite of Indicator Approach

Identification of a set of key indicators covering economic, social and environmental domains

Strengths & Weaknesses

It has the advantage of covering a wide range of topics, without the need of estimating individual weights.

Can be difficult to interpret Can include too much information

Indicators

• Measures should be “unambiguous" that is have a clear good/bad direction of movement

• Important to focus on the big picture• Important to discuss the links

between indicators ….. trade-offs and reinforcements

Progress and Regress

Progress and Progress

Progress: Objective and Subjective Components

• Objective components – longevity, income, air quality

The stuff we can measure exactly

Progress: Objective and Subjective Components

• Subjective components – fear, trust, happiness, life satisfaction

Must ask people how they feelBusiness ConfidenceSelf assessed health

Objective and Subjective Assessments Are

Important

Level of Subjective well-being

high low

Objective living conditions

high well-being dissonance

low adaptation deprivation

Measuring Subjective Well-being

Arguments For• Nice organising principle• Public are interested – and a growing

demand• Solid evidence that high subjective

wellbeing correlates with other “hard” aspects of wellbeing e.g. health

Happiness and Health

The Nuns

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Measuring Subjective Well-being

Arguments Against• Difficult to measure • Difficult to find policy relevance for

measures (at least for generalised measures of life satisfaction)

• Doesn’t appear to change a great deal over time (though there is a life course effect)

• Not “appropriate” ground for a statistical office

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Measuring Progress to Foster Progress

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The benefitsThe benefits

• Help countries prioritize resource allocation

• Promote accountability and enhance citizen engagement.

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The benefits – for citizensThe benefits – for citizens

• Improve citizens knowledge giving them the opportunity to improve their decision making processes and to become more aware of the risks and challenges of today’s world

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The benefits – for policy The benefits – for policy makersmakers

• Policy makers can better assess the current situation, make more informed decisions, and measure progress over time and relative to other nations

• Better coordination in government• Data to advocate necessary reforms and

evaluate their impact on societal welfare

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The benefits – for countriesThe benefits – for countries

• By highlighting the issues that genuinely matter to a society, a set of progress measures can help a country best meet the needs of its citizens by focussing attention on the key outcomes

• ‘Sunshine is the best disinfectant’….transparency has the ability to reduce waste, prevent corruption, and shift resources where they’re truly needed

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Progress Measures Can Help…Progress Measures Can Help…

• Enhance democracy …• … enhance decision making …• … and so generate progress Promote greater accountability Enhance the quality of public

debate46

• “Measuring the Progress of Societies is one of the most important roles the OECD can take on”– Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary General

• "World GDP growth has been faster than it has been for a very long time. But people are not particularly happy"– Kemal Dervis, Head of UNDP

• " Progress indicators are a way for people to hold their government’s accountable "– Francois Bourguignon, Chief Economist of the

World Bank 47

Thank you!