MEASURING PERFORMANCE AND RESILIENCY OF TRADE … · MEASURING PERFORMANCE AND RESILIENCY OF TRADE CORRIDORS ITF Transportation Statistics Group April 10th 2014 . ... Average Vessel

MEASURING PERFORMANCE AND RESILIENCY OF TRADE CORRIDORS ITF Transportation Statistics Group

April 10th 2014

Introduction • Tracking the performance of strategic freight routes provides

governments and stakeholders impartial evidence-based results on the competitiveness of Canada’s supply chains

• The Fluidity indicator is a web-based multi-modal tool that measures in near real-time the performance of individual segments of the supply chains as well as the end-to-end transit time of freight flows

• The metric is focusing on bottlenecks and impediments along major trade corridors; with a special attention given to port infrastructure

• Transport Canada’s fluidity indicator enables Canada to measure its own performance and do comparative analysis within the North American marketplace.

Transport Canada - Economic Analysis & Research 2

Phase 1: IMPORT

SUPPLY CHAIN

Economic Analysis Directorate 3 Transport Canada - Economic Analysis & Research

CORRIDORS IMPORT: ASIA-PACIFIC

PRINCE RUPERT

VANCOUVER • Hong Kong

• Shanghai

• Qingdao

• Tokyo

Calgary

Winnipeg

Toronto

Montreal

Chicago

Economic Analysis Directorate Transport Canada - Economic Analysis & Research

4

PHASE 2 CORRIDORS: CONTINENTAL

Calgary

Winnipeg

Toronto

Montreal

Chicago

• Antwerp

• Valencia

MONTREAL Toronto

Chicago

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Phase 2: EXPORT

SUPPLY CHAIN



CORRIDORS EXPORT: CANADA-ASIA

Rail

Transit

Times

Marine Terminals

Port Metro Vancouver (PMV)

Prince Rupert Alberta

Manitoba

Saskatchewan

Western Canada

Ocean

Transit

Times

Japan

Economic Analysis Directorate Transport Canada - Economic Analysis & Research

7

Rail

Transit Times

Marine Terminal

Thunder Bay Alberta

Manitoba

Saskatchewan

Western Canada

Short Sea

Shipping

Transit Times

Italy

Marine Terminal

Transshipment Port

Quebec City

Baie-Comeau

Venezuela Ocean

Transit

Times

CORRIDORS EXPORT: CANADA-ITALY/VENEZUELA

Examples of TC Fluidity Analysis

Measuring/Analyzing the reliability and variability in transit times

Identification of bottlenecks/impediments

Immediate and residual impacts of disruptions to the transportation network

Estimating border wait times

Measuring carbon footprint


Reliability Total Transit Time from Shanghai to Toronto

via Port Metro Vancouver

2010-2013

9 Transport Canada - Economic Analysis & Research

Year Marine % Change Port % Change Inland % Change

Total

Transit % Change

2010 14.2 - 3.1 - 5.7 - 23.1 -

2011 15.1 5.8% 2.5 -21.3% 5.9 2.0% 23.4 1.2%

2012 15.8 5.0% 2.6 7.7% 6.1 3.4% 24.5 4.9%

2013 15.6 -1.6% 3.0 14.4% 6.3 3.5% 24.9 1.4%

61.6%

13.5%

24.9%

2010

Marine Port Inland

64.4%

10.5%

25.1%

2011

Marine Port Inland

64.5%

10.8%

24.7%

2012

Marine Port Inland

62.6% 12.2%

25.2%

2013

Marine Port Inland

*Totals may not add due to rounding

Reliability Total Transit Time from Shanghai to Chicago

via Port Metro Vancouver

2010-2013


61.0%

13.4%

25.6%

2010

Marine Port Inland

63.7%

10.4%

25.9%

2011

Marine Port Inland

65.9%

11.0%

23.1%

2012

Marine Port Inland

64.5% 12.6%

22.9%

2013

Marine Port Inland

Year Marine % Change Port % Change Inland % Change

Total

Transit % Change

2010 14.2 - 3.1 - 6.0 - 23.3 -

2011 15.1 5.8% 2.5 -21.3% 6.1 2.7% 23.7 1.4%

2012 15.8 5.0% 2.6 7.7% 5.5 -9.8% 24.0 1.4%

2013 15.6 -1.6% 3.0 14.4% 5.5 -0.1% 24.1 0.5%

*Totals may not add due to rounding

Reliability/Variability


0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2010 2011 2012 2013

Day

s o

f Tr

ansi

t

Year

Annual Mean and 95th Percentile Time Marine, Port and Rail Segments

Shanghai to Toronto via PMV

Marine Mean

Marine 95th

Port Mean

Port 95th

Rail Mean

Rail 95th

Days of Transit 2010 2011 2012 2013

Marine Mean 14.2 15.1 15.8 15.6

Marine 95th 16.3 18.2 20.2 19.9

Port Mean 3.1 2.5 2.6 3.0

Port 95th 7.0 5.8 6.0 6.8

Rail Mean 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.3

Rail 95th 7.6 7.7 8.4 8.4


71.6

47.9 44.5

57.7 63.7

68.5

52.4 52.5 51.7 56.3

64.7

51.9

39.1

28.5

21.7

27.8

25.3

24.2

26.6 24.4

32.5 29.1 26.8

26.9

23.3

25.6

22.2

15.7

6.3

19.7 23.1

16.7

9.2 6.5

12.7 16.6 18.3

14.6 9.8

18.1

26.6

21.3

0.4 4.6 7.1

1.4 0.6 0.6 2.4 1.8 3.2 2.2 2.2 4.4 12.1

34.5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

uar

y

Feb

ruar

y

Mar

ch

Ap

ril

May

Jun

e

July

Au

gust

Sep

tem

be

r

Oct

ob

er

No

vem

be

r

De

cem

ber

Jan

uar

y

Feb

ruar

y

2013 2014

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f C

on

tain

ers

Month

Monthly Import Container Dwell at Port Metro Vancouver January 2013 to February 2014

>8 days

5-8 days

3-5 days

0-3 days

Source: Data sample provided to Transport Canada by Port Metro Vancouver

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jan

-10

Feb

-10

Mar

-10

Ap

r-1

0M

ay-1

0Ju

n-1

0Ju

l-1

0A

ug-

10

Sep

-10

Oct

-10

No

v-1

0D

ec-

10

Jan

-11

Feb

-11

Mar

-11

Ap

r-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

n-1

1Ju

l-1

1A

ug-

11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

No

v-1

1D

ec-

11

Jan

-12

Feb

-12

Mar

-12

Ap

r-1

2M

ay-1

2Ju

n-1

2Ju

l-1

2A

ug-

12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

No

v-1

2D

ec-

12

Jan

-13

Feb

-13

Mar

-13

Ap

r-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

n-1

3Ju

l-1

3A

ug-

13

Sep

-13

Oct

-13

No

v-1

3D

ec-

13

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

TEU

Day

s

Throughput

Average Dwell (import Rail Only)

Combining Indicators for Enhanced Analytical Power Container Dwell Time vs. Port Throughput at Port Metro Vancouver

2010 - 2014


Choke point identification

CP Strike

Port Utilization Indicators

Monthly Intermodal Indicators (5 container ports)

1. Average Truck Turnaround Time [Min.]

2. Berth Utilization [TEU/meter of workable berth]

3. Average Vessel Turnaround Time [Sec./TEU]

4. Average Vessel Turnaround Time [Hours]

5. Average Container Dwell Time [Days]

6. Dwell Target - % under 72 Hours [%]

7. Port Productivity [TEU/Gross Ha]

8. Vessel On-Time Performance [%]

9. Crane Productivity [Lifts per hour]

10. Number of Vessel Calls [Number/month]

11. Average TEU per Vessel Call [Number/month]

12. Container Throughput [Number/month]

Using Customs data for better planning


Canada Border Security Agency

Raw data collection Prior to departure

Transport Canada (Data transformation

and distribution)

Port Authority (Recipient of “cleaned”

data)

Terminal Operators (Data Consumers)

Rail Carriers (Data Consumers)

ALIGNING

PERFORMANCE and

RESILIENCY


17

A supply chain is a connected network of suppliers, manufacturers, shippers, distributors and retailers where transportation plays the role of unifying link among all the actors. A resilient supply chain may be defined as one that has the ability to recover quickly from a disruption in order to achieve output at, or near, the pre-event level. Risks to supply chains are potential actions negatively affecting supply chain performance, such as major natural events and operational and economic issues causing lengthy stoppages and/or disruptions. Supply chain vulnerabilities are weak spots within the supply chain, including physical locations (e.g., areas susceptible to floods, avalanches), potential labour disruptions, cyber threats, and choke points

Definitions:

Transport Canada – Centre of Excellence in Economics, Statistics, Analysis and Research (CEESAR)

Purpose of the Initiative: to support Canada’s economic competitiveness by increasing the efficiency of Canada’s supply chains linked to transportation infrastructure

Goals Objectives Outcomes

18

Introduction to Resliency


Increase the efficiency

of Canada’s

supply chains

Identify vulnerabilities in Canada’s

supply chains linked to multi-modal

transportation and infrastructure

Define when resilience becomes

a system issue requiring

government involvement

Support Canada’s

Economic

Competitiveness

Identify the risks facing Canada’s

supply chains

Develop a framework to assess

economic and competitiveness

impacts linked to resilience

Investigate the role of technologies

and other measures to assist in this

initiative

Identify policies, tools and mitigating

factors to address resilience issues

Develop expertise and predictive

tools using an archive of supply

chain disruptions and their

impact on resiliency

Build supply chain efficiency,

visibility and resilience and

improve Canada’s economic

competitiveness

Improve information sharing

between industry and

government and between

governments

• In the global economy, the role of supply chains has become increasingly important especially for international trade

• The increasing complexity and interconnectedness of global supply chains raises concerns about major disruptions

• The risk of disruptions (natural disasters, extreme weather, sudden demand shocks, cyber security) has been increasing in recent years

• International organizations (e.g., World Economic Forum) are recommending that countries develop strategies around resilience with the aim to build agile, transparent and diversified systems

• While industry has responsibility for the day-to-day efficiency of supply chains, governments are responsible for the broader public goals of managing long-term risks that affect regional and national economies

• To achieve national objectives, governments act as coordinators for supply chain stakeholders, ensuring that the system as a whole is resilient to disruptions

19

Importance of Supply Chain Resilience


• Transport Canada’s mandate to ensure an efficient, clean, safe and security transportation system provides the policy imperative to address supply chain resilience

• The Canada Transportation Act provides Transport Canada with the authority to intervene to restore supply chain operation in the event of a disruption

• Intervention to improve supply chain resilience tends to fall into four categories:

1) Mitigation

2) Preparedness

3) Response

4) Recovery

• Transport Canada has developed an Emergency Management Framework that addresses 3 aspects of supply chain resilience:

1) Reducing the probability of a disruption

2) Reducing the severity of a disruption

3) Reducing the recovery time after a disruption takes place

20

Source: “Supply Chain Resilience and Economic Impacts of Transportation Disruptions”. Transport Canada Internal Study. March 2012. Roger Roy.

Transport Canada’s Role


21

Currently 5 primary research initiatives in the Policy Group that address resiliency: 1. Supply chain analysis through the fluidity portal

• Provides end-to-end and segment-specific network visibility • Examines the impact and recovery of specific disruptions on supply chain performance

(see annex for example) • Provides estimates of operational and economic impact of disruptions at various ports • Provides a normative approach to resiliency and evaluation of risks

2. Vulnerability analysis of the rail network linked to geophysical characteristics • Identifies ground hazards linked to vulnerable locations

3. Climate Change Adaptation • Natural Resources Canada/TC assessment of climate risks to the transportation sector • Monitoring of extreme weather conditions and impacts

4. Transportation Resilience in the North • Northern Transportation Action Plan (NTAP) • Analysis of the capacity and resilience of northern supply chains to handle increased activity,

climate change impacts and enhanced connectivity 5. Transpacific Supply Chain Performance

• Research, analysis, and cooperation between TC and Ministry of Transport of China

Current Supply Chain Resiliency Research at

Transport Canada


22

Differentiation between transportation disruptions and supply chain disruptions: • Transportation (infrastructure) disruptions affect the flow of goods, while supply chain

disruptions affect the supply of inputs or outputs linked to an integrated economic activity

• The resilience of a supply chain and the impacts of disruptions propagate through to other links at a much larger scale

Two measurements of a supply chain disruption: 1) The severity of the

disruption: defines the reduction in performance due to the disruption

2) Time of recovery: defines the amount of time it takes to achieve pre-disruption output levels

Disruption Analysis


23

World Economic Forum. “Building Resilience in Supply Chains”. January 2013

Case study: Japan • Japan’s GDP contracted 3.7% in the

quarter following the earthquake and tsunami in 2011. It eventually recuperated but supply chains had to be altered.

• Specifically, supply chain disruptions led to a 33% decline in operating profits for a sample of 15 multinational companies in the quarter following the disaster.

Disruption Analysis: Economic Impact of Supply Chain Disruption

Decision makers need to understand the risks of supply chain disruption and the consequences of not intervening.

24

Supply chain vulnerabilities may be classified into 4 distinct categories: 1. Region specific vulnerabilities (i.e., climate, geophysical characteristics) 2. Network specific vulnerabilities (i.e., critical infrastructure, single mode serving a

region) 3. Operational vulnerabilities (i.e., physical disruption, cyber issues) 4. Economic vulnerabilities (i.e., labour disruption with national scope, market volatility)

Example: Analysis of rail network vulnerabilities due to landslides near Ashcroft, British Columbia. Note that both national railways are subject to the same vulnerabilities due to close proximity.

Identification of Vulnerabilities


25

Current TC initiatives to improve resilience and/or reduce the transportation system’s vulnerability to climate change:

• Continue to support R&D and capacity building in North (e.g. NTAI) • Build and share knowledge on climate risks and adaptation practices with

transportation industry • Opportunities for new TC adaptation initiatives as part of federal adaptation

programming (Proposed MC Spring 2015) • TC proposals could focus on various themes including Supply Chain Resilience

• Climatic changes bring risks that can disrupt supply chains and these risks appear to be growing

• Gradual changes in temperature, precipitation, permafrost thaw and sea level rise

• Increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events: flooding, ice and wind storms

• While climate resilience is a key challenge in the North, it is not just a northern issue

Climate Change Resilience and Adaptation


26

• The northern transportation system is critical to ensuring economic and social development.

• Transportation resilience in the North is affected by similar factors as those impacting southern parts of Canada, but these impacts are exacerbated and its capacity for resilience constrained by: • Underdevelopment (e.g., lack of infrastructure)

• Severe impacts of climate change (e.g., permafrost degradation)

• Increased traffic (e.g., mining, tourism, new marine routes).

• TC’s Northern Transportation Adaptation Initiative helps build resiliency into the northern transportation system by supporting projects that develop adaptation measures/strategies and cultivate northern expertise.

• The Northern Transportation Action Plan focuses on strategic transportation corridors to support community re-supply and resource development

• Target extreme vulnerabilities and deficiencies in northern systems

The Mackenzie River is an essential transportation corridor for the re-supply of communities and resource development projects in the Northwest Territories. Impacts of climate change on the Mackenzie River will have important implications for barge transportation and ferry operations along and across the river.

Source: weather.gc.ca

Transportation Resilience in the North


27

Proposed Approach in Three Phases:

Phase 1 (internal): • Develop standardized (normative) metrics for measuring

resiliency of supply chains • Define at what stage resilience becomes a system issue –

where the economic risks and market failures necessitate evidence-based government involvement

• Identify the multi-modal static and dynamic (i.e., infrastructure and non-infrastructure) vulnerabilities of our supply chains

• Determine the threshold for government intervention

Phase 2 (internal): • Investigate technologies to improve identification of

vulnerabilities and assist in mitigation and prediction • Involve all Policy Directorates and other federal departments to

allow a reconciliation of objectives among the various groups • Allow for discussions with the Safety and Security Group

responsible for TC Emergency Management Framework Source: IHS Global Insight

Proposed Initiative on Supply Chain Resilience


28

Proposed Approach in Two Phases: Phase 3 (involves external partners): • Improve the flow of information between industry stakeholders and government, and between

governments (both domestic and international) • Explore predictive analytical frameworks using an archive of evidence-based data sources from

past events • Identify policy actions and tools to deal with specific vulnerabilities and resilience situations

Proposed Initiative on Supply Chain Resilience


Improvement of resiliency requires collaboration of key stakeholders because it cannot be achieved in isolation.

Budget and Timeline: • 2014-2017 • $150,000 TC R&D Central Fund

Research Project on Supply Chain Resilience

• $100,000 may be leveraged from other government departments

World Economic Forum. “Building Resilience in Supply Chains”. January 2013

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Day

s o

f Tr

ansi

t

Week of the Year

2012 Weekly Rail Transit time: PMV to Various Destinations

Destination 1

Destination 2

Transport Canada - Economic Analysis & Research

Quantify immediate and residual impacts of disruptions on the rail network such as strikes and/or weather events.

9-day strike: May 23, 2012, Week 20

Return to Normal: Week 28

Residual effects Trend

Source: Transport Canada Fluidity database. Please note the data presented is an aggregate of

both class 1 rail carriers. 29


Estimating Southbound Truck Border Wait Times Using Geospatial Data


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

0:00 0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25 0:30 0:35 0:40 0:45 0:50 0:55 1:00 1:05 1:10 1:15 1:30

Tru

ck

Tri

ps

Wait Times (min)

Figure 7. Geospatial Analysis - Histogram of Border

Wait Times

Frequency

median=13.8

Source: Transport Canada

mean=16.4

standard deviation=14.8

95th percentile

POLICY IMPLICATIONS


• The fluidity indicator is evidence-based information to assess and analyze the efficiency of our supply chains.

• The project assists Transport Canada’s work on the identification of constraints in the transportation system.

• It provides strategic information on the resilience of our supply chains by measuring the recovery rates of the supply chains after major disruptions.

• It is a horizontal project serving other government departments and initiatives: – Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade and

Development: Investment, Trade and Pre-clearance Files – Public Safety: Critical Infrastructure – Infrastructure Canada – Provincial Governments: BC and Saskatchewan – Foreign Governments: United States and Japan


Fluidity Web Portal

Here’s what you see when you login onto the Fluidity Web Portal application.

Login procedures are provided by Transport Canada.

THANK YOU


Documents

MEASURING PERFORMANCE AND RESILIENCY OF TRADE … · MEASURING PERFORMANCE AND RESILIENCY OF TRADE CORRIDORS ITF Transportation Statistics Group April 10th 2014 . ... Average Vessel