MEASURING PEACE

Camilla Schippa, DirectorInstitute for Economics and Peace

#PeaceIndex@GlobPeaceIndex

INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMICS AND PEACE

The Institute for Economics and Peace is an independent,

not-for-profit, think tank dedicated to building a greater

understanding of the key drivers and measures of peace and

to identifying the economic benefits that increased

peacefulness can deliver.

Sydney, New York, Mexico City

“

”

IEP’s RESEARCH AGENDA

Four major research pillars:

Measuring peace

Economics and peace

Positive peace

Risk and peace

Research consulting:

Relevant to core research, generate revenue

DEFINING AND MEASURING PEACE

NEGATIVE PEACE

• Absence of direct

violence

• Absence of fear of

violence

GLOBAL PEACE INDEX

National Peace Indices

POSITIVE PEACE

Attitudes, institutions

and structures which

when strengthened,

lead to a more

peaceful society.

POSITIVE PEACE INDEX

Positive Peace Report

THE GLOBAL PEACE INDEX

Now in its ninth year

Ranks 162 countries

According to their relative states of peace

Using 23 indicators weighted on a 1-5 scale

A mix of qualitative and quantitative

indicators measuring internal and external

peace

Sourced from various organizations

including IISS, SIPRI, UCDP, UNHCR,

UNODC.

IEP• Defines philosophical approach

• Develops 5 indicators

Expert Panel

• Decides indicators, sets weights

• Reviews Index results

EIU• Develops 8 qualitative indicators, country

analysts estimate missing data points

INDEPENDENT PROCESS

Methodological

review

INDICATORS

6 measures of ongoing domestic and international conflict

including: intensity of organised internal conflicts, relations with

neighbouring countries and number of deaths from conflict

10 measures of societal safety and security

including: number of refugees and IDPs, impact of terrorism,

homicide and incarceration rates

7 measures of militarization

including: military expenditure, number of armed service

personnel, ease of access to small weapons

INSERT 2015 MAP

GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2015

www.visionofhumanity.org

2015 GPI HIGHLIGHTS

The average level of country peacefulness has remained

the same since last year

However, 81 countries became more peaceful while 78countries deteriorated

Deterioration primarily driven by increases in:

Deaths from internal conflicts

Terrorist activity

UN peacekeeping funding

Counteracting these falls were improvements in:

Homicide rate

External conflicts fought

Political instability

2015 GPI HIGHLIGHTS, cont’d….

Syria remains the world’s least peaceful nation

Iceland is the most peaceful

Guinea-Bissau and Cote d’Ivoire show the largest

improvement

Libya and Ukraine have largest drop

Europe’s peace improves

Europe most peaceful region in the world

MENA least peaceful region for the first time

EIGHT-YEAR TRENDS IN PEACE

Since 2008 the world has recorded a 2.4% deterioration in peace

Safety and Security score – 3.85% deterioration

Militarisation Score – 2.42% improvement

Ongoing Conflict Score – 0.86% deterioration

Deaths from internal conflict and impact of terrorism largest

deteriorations

76 countries improved, 86 countries deteriorated

Greatest deterioration in the MENA and Central America and

Caribbean regions

GLOBAL PEACE INEQUALITY2 billion people live in the bottom 20 countries compared to 500

million in the most peaceful

URBANIZATION AND PEACEGlobal urban population is expected to grow by 2.5 billion people by 2050.

1.9 billion will be in the countries that have low levels of peacefulness.

INDICATOR CHANGESTwo GPI indicators have improved by more than 5% over the last eight years.

Violent Demonstrations

Perceptions of Criminality

External Conflict

UN Peacekeeping

Impact of Terrorism

Internal Conflict Deaths

Refugees & IDPs

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Rela

tive A

vera

ge

In

dic

ato

r C

ha

ng

e

Sin

ce (2

008 t

o 2

015)

Source: IEP

DEATHS FROM TERRORISMDeaths from terrorism increased between 2003-2008. Then plateaued for

2009-2011 but have increased again since 2012.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

De

ath

s fr

om

Te

rro

rism

Sources: START GTD, IEP

TOTAL REFUGEES AND IDPS, 2004-2013The number of internally displaced people increased by 60% from 2004 to 2013

Source: UNHCR

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mil

lio

ns

of

Peo

ple

Refugees and Asylum Seekers

IDPS protected/assisted by UNHCR

Geocoded, 140,000+ incidents, 14 year time series

Combination of machine coding and expert coding

Measures loss of life, injuries, property damage, perpetrator, weapons

used, success rate

GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX

1970-2013 - 50% of incidents claim no lives

STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF TERRORISM

Large attacks are black

swans

Terrorism as a tactic of

sustained mass destruction

is mostly ineffective

Armed conflict much more

devastating

TERRORISM MORE OFTEN HAPPENS

DURING MAJOR CONFLICT

In the 28% - 90% of

attacks occurred in

countries which

score poorly in

social cohesion and

state sponsored

terror

Indicator Measure Source

Homicide Homicide rate per 100,000 peopleSESNSP (cases being

investigated by the State

Prosecution Authorities)

Violent crime Violent crime rate per 100,000 people SESNSP

Weapons crime Weapons crime rate per 100,000 people SESNSP

IncarcerationNumber of people sent to prison per year, per 100,000

peopleNational Institute of Statistics and

Geography (INEGI)

Police fundingFederal Government funding to States for the Public

Security Contribution Fund per 100,000 peopleSecretaria de Hacienda y Crédito

Publico (SHCP)

Organized crimeThe number of extortions, drug-trade related crimes,

organized crime offenses, and kidnapping per 100,000SESNSP

Efficiency of the

justice systemProportion of convictions for homicide to total

homicidesINEGI

MEXICO PEACE INDEX

Seven indicators

IEP defines violence containment spending as economic activity

that is related to the consequences or prevention of violence where

the violence is directed against people or property.

GLOBAL COST OF VIOLENCE

o Fifteen dimensions measured

o Individual estimates for 162 countries

o Conservative estimate

o Only includes direct costs

o Allows cost benefit analysis

Increase of 15.3% from 2008

GLOBAL COST OF VIOLENCE

Estimated to be US$14.3 trillion

GLOBAL COST OF VIOLENCE, 2008-2015

$12.4 $12.4

$13.4

$13.7 $13.7

$14.2 $14.3

$11.0

$11.5

$12.0

$12.5

$13.0

$13.5

$14.0

$14.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Tota

l Vio

len

ce C

on

tain

me

nt

Exp

en

dit

ure

$U

SP

PP

(Tr

illio

ns)

Due to the decrease in global peace, the economic impact of violence to the

world economy increased by US$2 trillion between 2008 and 2014

Source: IEP

VIOLENCE CONTAINMENT IS

LARGER THAN…

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

World Airlines Industry World Tourism Sector World Agriculture Sector World Economic Impactof Violence Containment

US

$ B

illio

n

GLOBAL VIOLENCE CONTAINMENT Composition of Global Violence Containment, 2014 (US$ Billion PPP 2014)

Source: IEP

WHAT CREATES PEACE?

New empiric approach to building peace

Reframes the study of peace towards what works

Positive Peace is the “attitudes, institutions and structures” that

create and sustain peaceful societies

Positive Peace is also a measure societal resilience

Positive Peace creates an environment that leads to many other

positive outcomes

“The attitudes, institutions and structures that sustain a peaceful society”

Analysed over 8,500 variables covering:

Macro-economy

Social relations and attitudes

Economic and social development

Economic and social integration

The functioning and structure of government

External relations

POSITIVE PEACE

FACTORS OF POSITIVE PEACEThe attitudes, institutions and structures that sustain a peaceful society

Positive Peace has the

following

characteristics:

• systemic and complex

• preventative and slow

moving

• informal and formal

• underpins resilience

and non-violence

• virtuous or vicious

THE POSITIVE PEACE INDEX

Ranks 162 countries – 99.6% of global population

Using 24 indicators weighted on a 1-5 scale

3 indicators for each of the eight Positive Peace pillars

Weighting according to strength of correlation

Empiric in construction

Positive Peace Index Indicators

INSERT MAP

POSITIVE PEACE INDEX 2013

RISK AND RESILIENCEStrong link between violence and positive peace

DenmarkSwedenIceland

CanadaGermany United KingdomFrance

United States of America

PortugalChile South KoreaItaly

Uruguay Greece IsraelCosta RicaQatarCroatia

MalaysiaBahrainOmanArgentina Macedonia (FYR)

South AfricaBrazilGhana MexicoPeruGeorgiaMongolia ThailandKazakhstanJordan ColombiaTurkey

Saudi Arabia UkraineVietnamIndonesia RussiaChina

Ecuador Algeria PhilippinesSenegalIndia

EgyptTanzaniaBelarusZambia MaliCambodia SyriaMadagascar Bangladesh RwandaNepal UgandaLaos IranLiberiaSierra Leone Mauritania EthiopiaHaiti Pakistan

YemenDRC

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

PO

SITI

VE

PEA

CE

IND

EX R

AN

K 2

01

0

GLOBAL PEACE INDEX RANK 2014

WEAK POSITIVE PEACE = GREATER VULNERABILITY

Big fallers with

positive peace

deficits:

• Syria

• Rwanda

• Madagascar

• Egypt

Source: IEP

IEP RISK COMPARISONProminent fragility measures compared to IEP risk models

for 2008 to 2014.

Largest

Falls

2008-2013

Change in

GPI Score

World Bank

as Fragile in

2008

Failed

States

Index 2008

State

Fragility

Index 2008

IEP

Models

Syria -70% No Yes No Yes

Libya -39% No No No Yes

Rwanda -31% No No No Yes

Madagascar -27% Yes No No Yes

Oman -23% No No No Yes

Tunisia -21% No No No Yes

Cote d'Ivoire -19% No Yes No Yes

Yemen -18% No Yes No Yes

Mexico -18% No No No No

Bahrain -17% No No No Yes

Identified 1/10 3/10 0/10 9/10

VIRTUOUS CYCLE OF PEACE

See how a country performs on the Global Peace Index

Compare two or more countries

See changes in peace over time

Show the world according to one of the 23 indicators

Download the report, infographics and media release

INTERACTIVE MAPS

@GlobPeaceIndex