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1 © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved
State of Agile
Ken Schwaber
Measure. Diagnose. Improve.
2 © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved
• The agile decade
• Where we are now
• An evidence-based approach to knowing the state of agile can be applied.
Backlog
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The Agile Decade Driving the boom
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• Y2K panic • Windows XP • iPod • Google search with click-
through ads • AOL merger with Time Warner • CDMA • Web 2.0 • .COM bubble has burst
• NSA, Wiki*, Facebook • Stuxnet, cyber warfare • 39% / 77% internet usage • Mobile devices
books, music, movies, social
• Business competes on the internet
• Most products have embedded software (bar codes)
• Driverless cars and tractors
2001 2014
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Software Is Critical to Business and Society
The growing demands of our popula7on and society require: • So=ware to weave it together • Greater efficiencies • Profoundly more complex infrastructure
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• Greater productivity per employee • Faster time to market of products and services • Increased ability to innovate
Agile Is the Driver
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State of Agile The Editorial
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How Some People Know Scrum and Agile
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How Others Know Scrum and Agile
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How Some in the Industry Know Scrum
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• Not quantified or proven • Some are seeing Agile as faddish • A money rush is on • Values and principles are being discarded
Because the correlation between agile values and principles and business value is not established, it has disappeared into a flurry of buzzwords and fads.
Agile as the Driver to Business Success
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Agility Investments
DevOps
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State of Agile
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Customers: How are we doing?
State of Agile
Me: My opinion isn’t worth a bucket of warm spit without direct evidence to back it up.
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Let’s Prefer Evidence over Opinion
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• Anything presented in support of an assertion
• Strongest evidence provides direct proof the assertion is true
• Weakest evidence is circumstantial – Is merely consistent with the assertion – Doesn’t rule out contradictory assertions
Evidence Broadly Construed
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Circumstantial Direct
What Type of Evidence?
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Circumstantial Direct
What Type of Evidence?
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Circumstantial Direct
What Type of Evidence?
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Circumstantial Direct
What Type of Evidence?
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Trace Evidence Agile’s fingerprints
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Numbers we know for our own organization
Numbers others in the industry have
accumulated
What can provide evidence of agility?
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Our organization : Our knowledge
How much money was invested in agility per person? q <$1,000 q <$10,000 q <$100,000 q >$100,000 q Don’t know
What has been the return on this investment?
q <0 q >0 q Don’t know
Has your organization’s value gone? q Up q Down q Stayed the same q Don’t know
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Circumstantial Direct
What Type of Evidence?
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Industry Evidence Given our understanding of evidence, how would you classify the following assertions?
Circumstantial Direct
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Agility – Software Dispersion Graph
So=ware
Agility
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
28 © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 28
Base: 2013: 149 IT professionals from organizations that are implementing or have implemented Agile. 2011: 205 IT professionals from organizations that are implementing or have implemented Agile.
Scaling Agile Can Happen
40%
17%
13%
12%
19%
45%
21%
12%
11%
11%
Under 25%
25% to 49%
50% to 74%
75% to 99%
Our en7re organiza7on uses Agile prac7ces
2013 2011
More general understanding
of the effort and what it really
means
29 © 1993-2014 Scrum.org, All Rights Reserved
Task switching destroys efficiency and quality, and can actually make you less intelligent
Source: Gerald Weinberg, Quality So=ware Management: Systems Thinking
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One opinion
hXp://www.drdobbs.com/architecture-‐and-‐design/the-‐corrup7on-‐of-‐agile/240166698
“[Agile] has been greatly abeXed by the legions of
Agile consultants. By stressing the prac7ces, they have corrupted
what Agile was about.”
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• Better business/IT alignment • More predictability • More opportunity for mid-course corrections • Results more aligned with requirements • Increased motivation/morale • Improved quality • Improved productivity • New innovations and applications
Analyst Organization Survey
“Scaling Agile Development”, Diego Lo Giudice, Forrester, Sept 2013
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Standish Group Report
The CHAOS Manifesto, Copyright 2011
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Velocity
“Scrum Metrics for Hyperproduc7ve Teams” Downey and Sutherland
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Nobody can tell you the state of agile Everything we know is subjective and based on circumstantial evidence
State of Agile
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State of Agility from
Evidence-Based Management
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• Twenty year effort to ground decision making in direct evidence
• Data-driven decision making using – Trusted bodies of knowledge – Experimentation results – Rigorous and constant
assessment
Evidence-Based Management (EBM)
Pa7ent Values
Clinical Exper7se
Best Evidence
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• The application of direct, objective evidence – By managers – To make decisions
• Rooted in evidence-based medical practices
• Applied to software development: Determines the value to an organization of its software development
Evidence-Based Management
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Direct Evidence of Value
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Evidence of Business Value
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Agility Index
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Evidence-based Trends in Value
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Correlating Direct and Circumstantial
Direct Evidence CircumstanCal Evidence
Produces
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Evidentiary Clues in an Organization
Knowledge, Understanding, Skills
Product managers Managers Developers
Prac7ces Tools Architecture Standards Process
CircumstanCal Evidence Direct Evidence
Improve
Diagnose
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Collect and Analyze Evidence CircumstanCal
Evidence
Direct Evidence
Improve
Diagnose
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Evaluate Investments Against direct Outcomes
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Evidence-based Management Organizations – Make better investments – Generate more business value – Avoid wasting energy on fads – Create an evidence-based profession
Goals
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• The state of agile is currently unknown
• Software is too important for that to continue
Evidence-based management determines the value your organization gets from software
• Next year’s presentation will be more informative
Summary
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Thank You