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Columbus City Schools
FIVE YEAR FORECASTMAY 2020
FISCAL YEARS 2017 – 2019 ACTUALFISCAL YEARS 2020 – 2024 FORECAST(FISCAL YEARS 2025 – 2027 PROJECTED)
FINANCE & APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE PRESENTATION: APRIL 15, 2020BOARD OF EDUCATION PRESENTATION: MAY 5, 2020
BOARD OF EDUCATION ADOPTION: MAY 19,2020
Treasurer’s OfficeStanley J. Bahorek, Treasurer/CFOMichael McCammon, Controller
Office of Budget & Financial ManagementScott Gooding, Executive Director
Board Services & Government AffairsErik Roush, Ph.D., Supervisor, Policy And
Government Affairs
“Forecasting is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”
─ Niels Bohr, Nobel Prize-winning physicist
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Legal Requirement
• O.R.C. §5705.391 and O.A.C. 3301-92-04
• Adopt prior to November 30 of each fiscal year
• Update between April 1 and May 31 of each fiscal year
• Update when events take place that will significantly change the forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
How to read a Five-Year Forecast(Source: Ohio Department of Education)
• “A forecast is somewhat like a painting of the future based upon a snapshot of today.”
• “…the further into the future the forecast extends, the more likely it is that the projections will deviate from actual experience.”
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
How to read a Five-Year Forecast(Source: Ohio Department of Education)
• “A variety of events will ultimately impact the latter years of the forecast, such as state budgets …”
• “…encourages district management teams to examine future years’ projections and identify when challenges will arise.”
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Forecasting Environment
• Numerous variables which are difficult to predict
• Exogenous variables over which CCS has little to no control
• Uncertainties of the future contribute to actual experience being different than projected
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Our Forecast is …
• A snapshot of what we know today coupled with a long list of assumptions about the future
… and is subject to change.
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
• FY20 End of Year (EOY) Estimates
• Adjustments to future years based on FY20 EOY estimates & FY21 – FY25 budget process
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
FY20 Est. Revenue Sources
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
$Millions
FY20 Est. Revenue Sources
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
% Total Revenue 1% Variance
Property Taxes 54% $5,192,000
State Aid 37% $3,589,000
Property Tax Alloc. 4% $358,000
Other Local 3% $341,000
Non-Operating 2% $163,000
All Revenue Sources $9,643,000
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
LN Property Taxes FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY241.01 Change (1,600,000)$ (4,300,000)$ (2,900,000)$ (2,000,000)$ (1,300,000)$
May FYF 519,200,000$ 524,200,000$ 535,100,000$ 544,100,000$ 555,400,000$
May Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
$2.5M Casino Revenue
LN State Aid FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY241.035&1.04
Change (1,000,000)$ (3,500,000)$ (1,000,000)$ (1,000,000)$ (1,000,000)$
May FYF 358,900,000$ 356,400,000$ 358,900,000$ 358,900,000$ 358,900,000$
May Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
LN Prop Tax Alloc FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY241.05 Change (911,943)$ (1,503,938)$ (1,452,155)$ (1,501,705)$ (1,499,255)$
May FYF 35,800,000$ 35,800,000$ 36,600,000$ 37,200,000$ 38,000,000$
May Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
LN Other Local FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY241.06 Change 6,280,000$ 2,520,000$ 2,520,000$ 2,520,000$ 2,520,000$
May FYF 34,100,000$ 29,640,000$ 28,940,000$ 28,940,000$ 28,940,000$
May Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
LN Revenues FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY241.01 Property Taxes (1,600,000)$ (4,300,000)$ (2,900,000)$ (2,000,000)$ (1,300,000)$
1.035Unrestr State Aid
(1,000,000)$ (3,500,000)$ (1,000,000)$ (1,000,000)$ (1,000,000)$
1.04 Restr State Aid -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 1.05 Prop Tax Alloc (911,943)$ (1,503,938)$ (1,452,155)$ (1,501,705)$ (1,499,255)$ 1.06 Other Local 6,280,000$ 2,520,000$ 2,520,000$ 2,520,000$ 2,520,000$ 2.08 Total Revenues 2,768,057$ (6,783,938)$ (2,832,155)$ (1,981,705)$ (1,279,255)$
May FYF 964,300,000$ 959,540,000$ 973,040,000$ 982,140,000$ 994,240,000$ Pct Change 0.3% -0.7% -0.3% -0.2% -0.1%
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Total Revenues5 Years - FY2020
thru FY2024Percent Change
Nov 2019 FYF $4,883,368,995Change for May 2020 FYF ($10,108,995) -0.21%May 2020 FYF $4,873,260,000
May Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
FY20 Est. Expenditures Categories
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
$Millions
FY20 Est. Expenditures Categories
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
% Total Expenditures
1% Variance
Personnel 66% $6,057,000
Charter, EdChoice, etc. 21% $2,037,628
Non-Personnel 10% $841,372
Debt Related & Other Oper. 2% $149,000
Non-Operating 1% $143,050
All Expenditures $9,228,050
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
LN Expenditures FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY243.01 Salaries, wages (9,600,000)$ (10,100,000)$ (10,800,000)$ (11,200,000)$ (11,600,000)$ 3.02 Benefits (7,700,000)$ (12,100,000)$ (14,500,000)$ (17,200,000)$ (20,200,000)$
Total Personnel (17,300,000)$ (22,200,000)$ (25,300,000)$ (28,400,000)$ (31,800,000)$ May FYF 605,700,000$ 643,000,000$ 675,000,000$ 696,800,000$ 719,500,000$
May Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
LN Expenditures FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY243.03 Purchased Srvcs (9,200,000)$ 1,900,000$ (3,300,000)$ (5,200,000)$ (7,200,000)$
Charter et al. 500,000$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Total (8,700,000)$ 1,900,000$ (3,300,000)$ (5,200,000)$ (7,200,000)$ May FYF 266,300,000$ 293,900,000$ 297,100,000$ 304,700,000$ 312,100,000$
May Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
LN Expenditures FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY243.04 Supplies, Mat'ls (2,400,000)$ (2,300,000)$ 1,100,000$ 2,600,000$ 2,000,000$
May FYF 18,000,000$ 23,600,000$ 23,600,000$ 23,600,000$ 23,600,000$
May Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
LN Expenditures FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY243.05 Capital Outlay -$ 1,600,000$ 400,000$ 1,500,000$ -$
May FYF 3,600,000$ 5,200,000$ 3,400,000$ 4,400,000$ 3,000,000$
May Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
LN Expenditures FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY244.3 Other Objects -$ (100,000)$ (200,000)$ (300,000)$ (200,000)$
May FYF 10,700,000$ 10,900,000$ 11,000,000$ 11,200,000$ 11,500,000$
May Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
LN Expenditures FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY245.01 Op. Transf-Out 700,000$ 700,000$ 700,000$ 700,000$ 700,000$
May FYF 4,300,000$ 4,300,000$ 4,300,000$ 4,300,000$ 4,300,000$
May Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
LN Expenditures FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24Personnel (17,300,000)$ (22,200,000)$ (25,300,000)$ (28,400,000)$ (31,800,000)$
3.03 Purchased Srvcs (8,700,000)$ 1,900,000$ (3,300,000)$ (5,200,000)$ (7,200,000)$ 3.04 Supplies, Mat'ls (2,400,000)$ (2,300,000)$ 1,100,000$ 2,600,000$ 2,000,000$ 3.05 Capital Outlay -$ 1,600,000$ 400,000$ 1,500,000$ -$ 4.30 Other Objects -$ (100,000)$ (200,000)$ (300,000)$ (200,000)$ 5.01 Op. Transf-Out 700,000$ 700,000$ 700,000$ 700,000$ 700,000$
Total Expend. (27,700,000)$ (20,400,000)$ (26,600,000)$ (29,100,000)$ (36,500,000)$ May FYF 922,805,000$ 985,805,000$ 1,019,305,000$ 1,049,805,000$ 1,078,905,000$ Pct Change -3.0% -2.1% -2.6% -2.8% -3.4%
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Total Expenditures5 Years - FY2020
thru FY2024Percent Change
Nov 2019 FYF 5,196,925,000$ Change for May 2020 FYF (140,300,000)$ -2.70%May 2020 FYF $5,056,625,000
May Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Updates Since November 2019 Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24Revenue
Nov FYF 961,531,943$ 966,323,938$ 975,872,155$ 984,121,705$ 995,519,255$ Changes 2,768,057$ (6,783,938)$ (2,832,155)$ (1,981,705)$ (1,279,255)$ May FYF 964,300,000$ 959,540,000$ 973,040,000$ 982,140,000$ 994,240,000$
ExpendituresNov FYF 950,505,000$ 1,006,205,000$ 1,045,905,000$ 1,078,905,000$ 1,115,405,000$ Changes (27,700,000)$ (20,400,000)$ (26,600,000)$ (29,100,000)$ (36,500,000)$ May FYF 922,805,000$ 985,805,000$ 1,019,305,000$ 1,049,805,000$ 1,078,905,000$
Revenues Over(Under) ExpendituresNov FYF 11,026,943$ (39,881,062)$ (70,032,845)$ (94,783,295)$ (119,885,745)$ Changes 30,468,057$ 13,616,062$ 23,767,845$ 27,118,295$ 35,220,745$ May FYF 41,495,000$ (26,265,000)$ (46,265,000)$ (67,665,000)$ (84,665,000)$
Ending Cash BalanceNov FYF 240,466,221$ 200,585,160$ 130,552,314$ 35,769,019$ (84,116,726)$ Changes 30,468,057$ 44,084,119$ 67,851,965$ 94,970,259$ 130,191,005$ May FYF 270,934,279$ 244,669,279$ 198,404,279$ 130,739,279$ 46,074,279$
May 2020 Forecast Summary
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
May 2020 Forecast Summary
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
May 2020 Forecast Summary
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Early Warning Indicators
• Expenditures begin to exceed Revenues in FY 2021– Same in Oct ‘18, May ‘19, Nov ‘19 FYFs
• Ending cash balance drops below 30-days cash FY2024– 1 years later than in Nov FYF
• No fiscal year with a negative ending cash balance– FY24 was negative in Nov FYF
– FY25 is projected negative
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Unknowns / Uncertainties / What’s Not Included
• State Funding–Reduction for
• FY20, FY21, FY22+?
• Loss of SWSF?
–State budget discussions begin in spring of calendar year 2021 (for State FYs 22 & 23)
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Unknowns / Uncertainties / What’s Not Included
• Property Taxes–Cash flow impact of delay in 2nd half 2020
collections
–Possible increase in unpaid/delinquent taxes• 2nd half 2020 collection
• 1st half 2021 collection
• 2nd half 2021 collection?
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Unknowns / Uncertainties / What’s Not Included
• Expenditures– Potential increases
• Continuation/expansion of online learning
• Impact of physical distancing
• Changes to programming or scheduling for 2020-2021 school year
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Unknowns / Uncertainties / What’s Not Included
• Academic program changes
• Collective bargaining• Operating Levy
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
May 2020 Five Year Forecast
Columbus City Schools
FIVE YEAR FORECASTMAY 2020
FISCAL YEARS 2017 – 2019 ACTUALFISCAL YEARS 2020 – 2024 FORECAST(FISCAL YEARS 2025 – 2027 PROJECTED)
FINANCE & APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE PRESENTATION: APRIL 15, 2020BOARD OF EDUCATION PRESENTATION: MAY 5, 2020
BOARD OF EDUCATION ADOPTION: MAY 19,2020
Treasurer’s OfficeStanley J. Bahorek, Treasurer/CFOMichael McCammon, Controller
Office of Budget & Financial ManagementScott Gooding, Executive Director
Board Services & Government AffairsErik Roush, Ph.D., Supervisor, Policy And
Government Affairs