May 2007

Developing a Walk-Out Evacuation Plan for Washington, DC

TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

by Phil Shapiro, VHB

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Contributors

Soumya Dey, DDOT Joe Kammerman, DDOT George Branyan, DDOT David Anspacher, VHB Dalia Leven, VHB Peter Cusolito, VHB Joe Ojeda, VHB

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Objectives

Facilitate pedestrian egress due to an event that requires an undeclared evacuation of DistrictTerrorismChemical spillOther

Identify pedestrian evacueesVolumeTravel patterns

Develop systematic plan to facilitate pedestrian egress

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Model & Planning Assumptions Initial step of continuing planning process Follow-on planning required for MOUs, SOPs, etc Plan supports evacuation of:

Entire City Individual Sub-areas of District

Includes residents, non-residents & visitors Separate plans for:

Mobility impaired K-12 students (public and private)

Start-up time for evacuee bus transportation: 3 hrs

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Project Status

Initial Analysis Completed Draft Proposal for Inclusion in Emergency

Transportation Annex Stakeholder Coordination Continuing Operational Issues Under Review Standard Operating Procedures Must be

Developed

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EMP Sustainability Model

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Project Overview

Determine Evacuation Scenarios

Pedestrian Volumes and Routes

Emergency Transportation Annex (ETA)

Operational Strategies for Implementation

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Review Existing Information Threat Vulnerability Assessment Emergency Transportation Annex Vehicle Evacuation Plan/Routes Consequence Mgmt Center & Traffic Mgmt Center

protocols, procedures, diagrams and maps Transfer Locations Census Data Travel Data Available pedestrian facilities (sidewalks, etc.)

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Evacuation Structure•Transfer Points

•Collection Areas

•Bus Routes

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Pedestrian Evacuation Structure

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Pedestrian Evacuation Structure (Continued)

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Walk-Out Routes Pedestrians guided to routes that minimize interference

with vehicular travel Pedestrians able to walk on all facilities Pedestrians will be supported on walk-out routes

Information Police / traffic control Food and water Medical

Use of sidewalks and a few designated roadways (only when sidewalks too crowded)

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Evacuation Time Periods

Daytime IncidentMost bodies at desksWeekday - 10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m.Evacuation of entire city

Nighttime IncidentMost bodies in bedWeekday - 12:00 a.m. to 4:00 a.m.Evacuation of entire city

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Model Structure

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Estimating Number of Evacuees (Daytime)

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Estimating Number of Evacuees(Trip Generation)

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Estimating Number of Evacuees(Trip Generation)

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Estimating Number of Resident Evacuees

(Trip Generation)

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Estimating Number of Non-Resident Evacuees

(Trip Generation)

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Estimating Number of Visitor Evacuees

(Trip Generation)

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Pedestrian Volumes

Evacuees at time of eventDaytime scenario – approx. 850,000Nighttime scenario – approx. 700,000

Evacuees that are pedestriansDaytime scenario – approx. 400,000Nighttime scenario – approx. 300,000

Evacuees by sub-area

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District of Columbia Sub-Areas

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Evacuees Daytime Nighttime

Total 100,000 120,000Peds 50,000 55,000

Evacuees Daytime Nighttime

Total 85,000 130,000Peds 40,000 50,000

Evacuees Daytime Nighttime

Total 100,000 115,000Peds 45,000 45,000

Evacuees Daytime Nighttime

Total 100,000 150,000Peds 45,000 60,000

Evacuees Daytime Nighttime

Total 445,000 185,000Peds 225,000 85,000

Evacuees by Sub-Areas

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Destination/ Mode Choice

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Destination/Mode Choice

Choice of destination (transfer point, collection area) is determined by weighted total time Walk Time (weight = 1.5) Wait Time (weight = 1)

Startup Time (assumed as 3 hrs) Queue Time

Bus Time (weight = 1) Logit model distributed evacuees across all of

the available transfer points and collection areas

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Pedestrian Evacuees by Transfer Point(Inside District)

EvacueesHours to Evacuate Evacuees

Hours to Evacuate

TP #1 4,800 10,500 2 8,500 2TP #2 4,800 12,000 3 7,500 2TP #3 2,400 6,500 3 5,000 2TP #4 2,400 7,500 3 7,000 3TP #5 4,800 12,000 3 8,500 2TP #6 4,800 17,500 4 9,500 2TP #7 4,800 13,500 3 7,000 1TP #8 2,400 6,500 3 6,500 3TP #9 2,400 7,000 3 6,500 3TP #10 2,400 8,000 3 6,500 3TP #11 2,400 8,000 3 7,000 3TP #12 2,400 6,000 3 6,000 3TP #13 2,400 7,500 3 7,000 3

TP #14 2,400 8,000 3 4,500 2TP #15 2,400 5,500 2 6,500 3TP #16 2,400 4,500 2 5,000 2TP #17 2,400 6,000 3 5,500 2TP #18 2,400 7,500 3 7,000 3TP #19 2,400 4,500 2 4,000 2TP #20 2,400 7,500 3 7,000 3TP #21 4,800 10,000 2 8,500 2TP #22 4,800 11,500 2 7,000 1TP #23 2,400 7,500 3 5,500 2TP #24 2,400 7,500 3 6,500 3Total 202,500 159,500

Transfer Point

Bus Capacity per

Hour

Daytime Nighttime

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Daytime Pedestrian Evacuees

Number of Pedestrians

Collection Area Walking Directly Total Arriving

VA #1 3,500 19,500

VA #2 12,500 25,000

VA #3 1,500 30,000

MD #1 18,000 45,000

MD #2 9,000 36,000

MD #3 10,500 26,000

MD #4 40,000 69,500

MD #5 500 20,000

MD #6 67,000 93,500

Total 162,500 364,500

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Assignment

Uses standard regional model with some modifications to the network:Addition of non-vehicular facilitiesRemoval of vehicle-only highway facilitiesRemoval of all one-way restrictionsDefinition of all speeds as 3 mph (4 ft/sec)

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Walk-Out Corridors

Preliminary Draft

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Corridor Analysis

Volume(people)

67,000

Sidewalk & Street

Sidewalk Only

58,000

57,000 44,000

58,000

44,00058,000

Capacity (people/hour)

42,000

39,000

23,000

28,000

46,000

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Corridor Volume & Capacity Comparison

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Corridor Support

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Research Topics How far are people willing to walk during an evacuation? Where do you direct pedestrian evacuees? Who will wait for transportation and who will walk? What support services are necessary?

Water Medical Other

How can undeclared evacuation be supported? If sidewalk facilities are insufficient to accommodate pedestrian

volumes, how do you dedicate roadways to evacuees? Limited access facilities At grade roadways

Questions?