May 20 - 21, 2015| Boston, MA

Improve Your Forecasts With Better Models and Diagnostics!We Will Show You How To:

To register for this tutorial, visit DemandPlanning.netContact us today at (781)-995-0685, or via Email at training at demandplanning.net

Demand Planning & Sales Forecasting2-day Tutorial Workshop

•SetupaDemandPlanningProcessforyourBusiness

•UseStatisticalModelingtoCreateBaselineForecasts

•IncorporatePromotionalEventsIntoYourForecastModeling

•UseForecastErrorasaDiagnostictoImproveModelQuality

Demand Planning & Sales Forecasting

CADPCertificationMay 22, 2015| Boston, MA

Demand Planning & Sales Forecasting

Demand Planning is the art and science of accurately forecasting the demand for your supply chain. An accurate demand plan helps you reduce inventory costs and increase customer service levels. When properly implemented and used in the Value Chain Process, the demand plan helps create a lean and customer centric supply chain.

In this workshop, you will learn how to develop a baseline statistical forecast and leverage a collaborative process to add customer intelligence. The result is a more accurate plan that includes promotional activity, customer intelli-gence, and display activity.

This two-day intensive workshop will take you through an overview of demand planning process, organization, and structure within the supply chain and comprehensively cover statistical modeling to create accurate forecasts. We will also talk about model diagnostics to improve the quality of the forecast models with specific references to popular applications such as SAP APO, Forecastpro, Oracle, Demantra, etc.

Insightfulinformationon...Demand Planning OverviewMechanics of Forecast ModelingForecast Performance MetricsModel Diagnostics Measure and use Forecast AccuracyPromotional Planning Consensus Demand Planning Event Modeling

To register for this tutorial, visit DemandPlanning.NetContact us today at (781)-995-0685, or via Email at training at demandplanning.com

Price: $995 | Super Early-bird price for Boston: $795 until Dec 31, 2014 Discounted price of $1595 when registering for 2-Day DP + 1-Day Refresher course plus CADP exam until Dec 31, 2014

10% discount for groups of 3 or more from the same company using 1 payment method

Dr. Mark Chockalingam is Managing Principal, Demand Planning, LLC. Mark specializes in demand forecasting, Sales and Operations Planning, Customer Planning and supply chain strategy. Mark has helped consulting clients in CPG, Pharmaceuticals, Chemicals and Retail to implement best practices to sharpen complex supply chains and help them be more customer focused. He has worked on highprofile projects with companies such as Abbott, FMC, Procter and Gamble, Au Bon Pain, Teva Pharmaceuticals and Miller SAB, Wyeth etc.

Mark has a Ph. D. in Finance from Arizona State University, an MBA from the University of Toledo and is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India.

Dr.MarkChockalingam President and Founder of Demand Planning LLC

Demand PlannersForecast Analysts Forecasting ManagersDirectors of Forecasting & Demand PlanningDirectors of Value ChainAnalysts in the Supply ChainInventory Planners Operations PlannersFinancial AnalystsDirectors of LogisticsDirectors of Customer Service

Who Should Attend?May 22, 2015| Boston, MA

WorkshopAgendaDAY ONE DAY TWO

7:30 – 8:30am Registration

8:30 – 10:00am Welcome & Introduction

10:00 – 10:15am Morning Break

10:15 – 11:15am Demand Planning Overview •WhyForecastandPlan? •TheService–Cost–BalanceModel •IntroductiontoDemandPlanning-What,WhyandHow? •BeyondStatisticalForecasting •KeyComponentsof aDemandPlan •KeyTerminology–Fo…recastHorizon,Buckets&Periodicity •Constrainedvs.UnconstrainedForecasts •Demand Management

11:15am – 12:15pm Data Cleaning & Adjustments for

Demand Forecasting

•WhatDoWeKnowAboutData? •TheForecastProblemandDataCollection •WhatisDemand–Shipmentsvs.Orders •GrossDemandvs.NetDemand •DataCleaningChallenges •AdjustingforHistoricalShiftsinDemand •DataFiltering •Outliers •ProcesstoIdentifyOutliers •MethodologyforOutlierCorrection

12:15pm – 1:15pm Lunch Break

1:15– 2:30pm Data Analysis & SKU Segmentation •SimpleModelof Demand •DemandVolatility •WhatistheApproachtoDataAnalysis? •Impactof DataVolatilityonForecasting •MeasuringVolatility •Impactof MultipleExtremeObservationsonVolatility •SKUSegmentationforForecastModeling •VolumeVolatilitya2x2Grid •ModelingbyException

2:30 – 3:00pm Coffee Break & Networking Exercise

3:00 – 4:30pm Demand Components & Graphical Decomposition •PredictableandUnpredictableVolatility •Illustrationof DemandComponents •KeyComponentsof Demand •UnderstandingtheComponents Trend Seasonality Cyclicality •GraphicalDecomposition

4:30pm Assignment of Forecasting exercises to participants

5:30pm Networking Reception

7:30- 8:30am Breakfast

8:30- 9:30am Forecast Errors and Model Diagnostic •Definitionof DemandForecastErrors •ErrorsOverTimevs.ErrorAcrossProducts •ModelErrorsDefined •Definitionof MPE,MAPE,WAPEandRMSE •ModelDiagnosticsthroughForecastError

9:30 – 10:30am Modeling by Decomposition •ForecastModel •Uni-variateTimeSeriesModels •ForecastingbyDecompositionUsingExcel •CalculatingTrendusingRegressionModel •De-TrendingtheSeries •BuildingASeasonalIndex •AddingTrendandSeasonalityBack •CreatetheForecasts

10:30 – 10:45am Morning Break

10:45am – 12:30pm Statistical Modeling •IntroductiontoForecastModeling •Qualitiesof aGoodStatisticalForecast •BalancingBetweenModelFitvs.ModelRobustness •TimeSeriesvs.Multi-VariateMethods •FirstOrderExponentialSmoothingorConstantModels •HoltModelstoAccommodateTrend •HoltWintersModels •ExponentialTrendandDampening •Additivevs.MultiplicativeSeasonalityinModels •EventModeling

12:30pm – 1:30pm Lunch Break

1:30 – 2:30pm Discussion & Answers to Assigned Exercises

2:30 – 3:30pm Planning for Intermittent Demand •IntermittentDemand •StatModelingof IntermittentDemand •WhatisIntermittentDemand? •WhatCausesIntermittency? •StrategiestoHandleIntermittentDemand •SupplyChainStrategy •Sales&MarketingIntelligence •Segmentation •StatModeling •Applicationof Croston’sModel •DiscreteDistribution

3:30 - 4:30 pm Measuring forecast performance •ForecastErrorsandActionability •Sourcesof ForecastError •Definitionof DemandPlanningMetrics–WAPE&Bias •Typesof Bias •SKUMixError •ErrorAnalysisforContinuousImprovement

Demand Planning LLC | 26 Henshaw St, Woburn, MA 01801 | www.DemandPlanning.Net

About Demand Planning, LLC

List of Clients

Demand Planning LLC26 Henshaw St, Woburn, MA 01801

Phone: (781) 995 0685Fax: (651) 305 5163

Email: training at demandplanning.netWeb: http://www.demandplanning.net

Demand Planning, LLC is a consulting boutique comprised of seasoned experts with real-world supply chain experience and subject-matter expertise in demand forecasting, S&OP, customer planning, and supply chain strategy.

We provide process and strategy consulting services to customers across a variety of industries: pharmaceuticals, CPG, high-tech, foods and beverage, quick service restau-rants and utilities.

Through our knowledge portal Demand Planning.Net, we offer a full menu of training programs through in-person and online courses in Demand Forecast Modeling, S&OP, industry forecasting, collaborative forecasting using POS data.

Demand Planning.Net, also offers a variety of informational articles and downloadable calculation templates, and a unique Demand Planning discussion forum.

Abbott LabsAVONAhold USAAvery DennisonBAE SystemsBASFCabot CreameryCampbell Soup

Celanese AGCloroxEastmanKodakF. SchumakerFMC CorporationGlatfelter PaperGrace FoodsHarley Davidson

Hershey’sHewlett PackardHoneywellHypertherm, Inc.IMP AerospaceJohn DeereJohnson & JohnsonJuhayana

KNEXKraftFoodsLabatt FoodsLabatt USALifetime ProductsLimited BrandsMcCain FoodsNew Balance

Newell RubbermaidNomacorcNSTAR ElectricNTN USAOptos Inc. OSRAM SylvaniaPacific CyclesPizza Hut

SAB MillerSappi Fine Paper Skyworks SolutionsSunovionTeva PharmaceuticalsTexas InstrumentsUS Navy Pfizer