Mauritius Power Sector RAS Report Part 1

8/20/2019 Mauritius Power Sector RAS Report Part 1

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Report No: ACS13923

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Republic of Mauritius

Mauritius Energy SectorReimbursable Advisory Services

Assessment of electricity demand forecast andgeneration expansion plan with focus

on the 2015–2017 period

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May, 2015

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GEE01

AFRICA.


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Table of Contents

Part I. BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES 1

Part II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

Part III. ASSESSMENT OF DEMAND FORECASTS 17

1 Initial electricity demand forecasts 18

1.1 Forecasts of electricity sales 18

1.2 Forecasts of energy sent out 22

1.3 Forecasts of peak demand 23

2 Comparison with recent forecasts from CEB 25

3 Sensitized electricity demand forecasts 29

4 Conclusions and recommendations 32

Part IV. ASSESSMENT OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE 34

5 Assessment of supply to peak demand 34

5.1 Input data and assumptions 35

5.1.1 Current installed generation capacity 35

5.1.2 Programmed retirements and termination of contracts 39

5.1.3 Programmed capacity additions and redevelopment of generating units 40

5.1.4 Contribution of hydro plants to supply of peak demand 43

5.1.5 Scheduled maintenance of generation fleet 44

5.2 Methodology 46

5.3 Assessment of supply to peak demand under currently programmed additions

and retirements to the generation system 49

5.3.1 Results of the quantitative assessment 49

5.3.2 Summary of recommendations for the short and long terms 51

5.4 Recommendations for the short term (2015 – 2017) 52

5.4.1 Detailed short-term recommendations 53

5.4.2 Simulation of implementation of recommendations for the short term 58

5.5 Recommendations for the long term (2018 – 2022) 61

5.5.1 Detailed long-term recommendations 62

5.5.2 Simulation of implementation of the long-term recommendations 67

6 Conclusions and recommendations 69 6.1 Ensuring the adequacy of the supply to peak power demand in the short term

69

6.2 Firm capacity additions in the long term 71

Part V. RECOMMENDATIONS TO STRENGTHEN CAPACITIES TO

UNDERTAKE POWER SECTOR EXPANSION PLANNING 75

7 Methodologies and procedures for power system planning 75

8 Institutional aspects and planning of the power sector 78

REFERENCES 84 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 86


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Annex I. ASSESSMENT OF GENERATION PLAN DEVELOPED AND

EVALUATED WITH THE WASP PACKAGE BY MAURITIAN

INSTITUTIONS 88

9 Assessment of generation plan DEVELOPED and evaluated with WASP 88

9.1 Factual observations 88 9.2 Conclusions and recommendations 92

Annex II. DETAILED SIMULATIONS OF SUPPLY TO PEAK DEMAND 98

10 Detailed results of simulations of section 5.3.1 98

10.1 Initial set of demand projections 98

10.1.1 Low demand scenario 98

10.1.2 Base demand scenario 101

10.1.3 High demand scenario 104

10.2 Sensitized set of demand projections 107

10.2.1 Low demand scenario 10710.2.2 Base demand scenario 110


















12.2.2 Base demand scenario 14612.2.3 High demand scenario 149


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T E C H N I C A L A S S I S T A N C E T O G O V E R N M E N T O F M A U R I T I U S I N T H E E N E R G Y S E C T O R

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PART I . BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The Republic of Mauritius is an island nation in the Indian Ocean. It comprises the main island

of Mauritius and the island of Rodrigues, the outer islands of Agaléga, and the archipelago of

Saint Brandon.

In the Republic of Mauritius, the Ministry of Public Utilities is responsible for the power sector

(as well as the water and wastewater sectors) and for the design and implementation of energy

policy.

The Ministry oversees the power utility, the Central Electricity Board (CEB), which is

statutorily responsible for the control and development of electricity supply. CEB, which is also

a generator and supplier of electricity, currently acts as the electricity regulator. The Electricity

Act of 1939 (amended in 1991), the Electricity Regulations of 1939, and the Central Electricity

Board Act (1964) comprise the legislative framework for the electricity sector and CEB’soperations. According to the 1964 act [1], CEB is empowered to “prepare and carry out

development schemes with the objective of promoting, coordinating and improving the

generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity throughout Mauritius as required.”

The governmental policy for the power sector seeks to encourage a greater use of sources other

than oil for the generation of electricity, through the optimization of the use of local and

renewable energy sources. It also seeks to encourage proper management in energy

utilization — the Government of Mauritius (GoM) is joining efforts with private and public

institutions to achieve energy savings and implement energy efficiency practices.

CEB is currently able to meet peak electricity demand in the Republic of Mauritius. However,the increase in demand, coupled with possible delays in the implementation of new projects and

the aging of the existing generation plants, have posed concerns regarding CEB’s ability to

meet electricity demand reliably in the next few years. Depending on the combination of the

load growth and materialization of delays, the security of supply may be at risk already in the

short term. A supply shortage would trigger the need to install new capacity on an emergency

basis.

Taking this into account, the GoM requested technical assistance from the World Bank (WB),

comprising an independent evaluation of electricity demand forecasts and the assessment of the

existing power generation system and the plans for its expansion. For the execution of these

assessments, the period 2015 – 2017 is emphasized, because this mid-term horizon presents

particular challenges to the maintenance of adequate generation supply in Mauritius, as will be

seen further in this document. Yet, the analysis also includes the years until 2022 — a horizon

compatible with CEB’s Integrated Electricity Plan 2013 – 2022 [IEP] [2], though with less detail

on the interval between 2018 and 2022.

This document consists of the preliminary report of the activities carried by the WB team, and

is organized as follows:

Following this introduction, the executive summary in Part II presents the main

findings and recommendations arising from the work.


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The evaluation of electricity demand forecasts for the island of Mauritius is presented

in Part III, which also contains recommendations for improving the process of demand

forecasting and the use of the demand projections in the planning activity.

Part IV deals with the assessment of the generation system in the island of Mauritius, presenting recommendations on how to proceed with addressing the identified

difficulties in meeting demand with the currently existing and planned generation

systems.

Recommendations for strengthening the capacity of Mauritian institutions to undertake

power sector planning, including methodological and institutional aspects, are

presented in Part V.

Bibliographical references and technical annexes follow Part V.

After the delivery of the initial version of this report, the WB team received and was

requested to analyze the outcomes of planning studies conducted by CEB, in which

generation expansion plans were prepared and evaluated with help of the Wien

Automatic System Planning (WASP) Package. Annex I presents an assessment of the

results and the technical procedures adopted for these planning studies.

Annex II contains detailed results referring to simulations of supply to peak demand.


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PART II . EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The objective of this document is to assess the ability of the generation system in the island of

Mauritius to meet the demand for electricity, and to recommend measures to ensure the

adequacy of supply in this island in the short and long terms. The recommendations refer both

to actions to be taken by Mauritian institutions to improve the security of electricity supply in

the short and long terms, and to actions to strengthen the capacity of these institutions to

undertake power sector planning.

In short, the key recommendations of this report are:

(1) Due to time constraints, ensuring security of supply in the short term (2015-2017)

requires measures not involving capacity additions.

These measures refer to enhancing the operation of the existing system, fast tracking

generation projects already in the pipeline, and extending the operation either of

existing generation assets that are scheduled for decommissioning or of independent

power producers (IPPs) whose contract is scheduled for termination.

The efforts to implement these measures, which are detailed in section 5.4 of the report,

ought to be initiated as soon as possible.

(2) In the long term, new capacity generation additions (i.e., those not referring to projects

already under consideration or implementation) are needed already in 2018.

Given the typical times required to incorporate new capacity, avoiding supply shortages

in 2018 requires actions from Mauritian institutions in the very short term, to becompleted by January 2016. The procurement process for the incorporation of new

generation capacity should be initiated in January 2016 at the latest.

The time available between June 2015 and January 2016 would allow for some

adjustments of the generation capacity expansion alternative for 2018. By

implementing in 2015 the recommendations presented in this report on improvement of

the methodologies and procedures for power system planning, the Mauritian

institutions will be able to optimize the amount of new generation capacity actually

needed and the related timing.

If no improved planning methods and procedures are implemented in Mauritius beforeJanuary 2016, it is recommended to proceed with the procurement of gas turbines (to

run initially on diesel) in the amount the currently applied planning methodology

indicates is needed (2 × 36 megawatts [MW]), since no other formal and consolidated

assessment methodology will be available to support expansion planning decisions.

(3) For the period between 2019 and 2022, the recommended firm capacity additions are

those indicated in Table ES 1.1. The determination of the exact technology

corresponding to those capacity additions should be the result of detailed planning

efforts, which need to be executed under consideration of the recommendations of this


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report on how to strengthen the capacity of Mauritian institutions to undertake planning

for power sector expansion.

Table ES 1.1 – Capacity additions recommended for Mauritius in the long term: 2019 – 2022

(4) Strengthening the capacity of Mauritian institutions to plan for power sector expansion

involves institutional and methodological aspects.

From an institutional point of view, the most critical recommendation is to embrace

public consultation mechanisms as part of decision-making processes for the expansion

of the power sector. The WB team believes formal public consultation is the right

approach to address, in a realistic and transparent manner, environmental and socially

sensitive issues related to the power sector, as well as concerns about diversificationand security of supply. A proper public consultation process conducted in all stages by

the Government of Mauritius will make it possible to define the options for expansion

of the power sector actually available for the country in terms of primary resources

(imported fossil fuels, renewables) for power generation, environmental, and other

conditions to be met for their effective use.

It is of utmost importance that policies on the mix of domestic and imported energy

resources and the diversification and security of supply, as well as environmental

constraints and other requirements deriving from social acceptability, are considered

for the definition of scenarios for expansion at the planning stage, and that the costs of

meeting those policies, constraints, and requirements for each scenario are realistically

assessed by planners. Public consultation processes on those scenarios will make it

possible to define those actually viable for Mauritius, as well as to inform the society

on the related implementation costs for the country. For this reason, the WB team

believes starting this process should be seen as an immediate priority in Mauritius.

(5) From a methodological standpoint, it is recommended that Mauritian institutions

conclude as soon as possible — ideally before the end of 2015 — the implementation of

a program to consolidate the modernization of methodologies, procedures, and

computational tools used for power system planning in the country. This modernization

process has already been initiated, and there is an ongoing initiative with theInternational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This report contains specific

recommendations on how to strengthen and consolidate the modernization program.

The current planning methodologies seem to point toward significant capacity

additions in coming years. Thus, assessing these requirements with the help of modern

methodologies and procedures can significantly impact the costs and reliability of

supply in Mauritius.

2019 2020 2021 202290.0 - 45.0 45.0

90.0 90.0 135.0 180.0

YearCapacity additions [MW]

Accumulated capacity additions [MW]


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In the context set by the preceding key recommendations on the way forward, a more detailed

description of the main findings and recommendations of this report is presented in the

following sections of this executive summary.

Generating electri city demand forecasts for the island of M aur iti us

Forecasts of the demand for electricity (energy consumption and peak load) are an essential

input for the assessment of the adequacy of a generation system. For this reason, the WB team

generated such forecasts for the island of Mauritius for the period 2015 – 2022. For this task, the

team adopted a top-down econometric approach, projecting demand for the island as a function

of the expected growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the Republic of Mauritius. Demand

projections were generated:

For three scenarios of GDP growth: low growth, the base case, and high growth.

For two sets of assumptions on how energy efficiency and energy savings programs,as well as structural changes in the Mauritian economy and energy consumption habits,

may impact the demand for electricity in the long term. This resulted in two sets of

projections: the initial set (not taking into consideration any relevant effects of these

phenomena), and the sensitized set (in which these phenomena result in lower growth

of demand for electricity in the long term, after 2018).

The peak power demands determined for these two sets of projections and three growth

scenarios are indicated in Figure ES 1.1. The procedure utilized for generating the sensitized

set of projections was based on the reproduction of the behavior of recent demand projections

made available by CEB [6], in which it is considered that energy efficiency and energy savings

programs, as well as structural changes in the Mauritian economy and energy consumption

habits, affect the demand for electricity significantly in the long term.

Figure ES 1.1 – Peak power demand projections for the island of Mauritius: 2004 – 2022

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

2 0 1 4

2 0 1 5

2 0 1 6

2 0 1 7

2 0 1 8

2 0 1 9

2 0 2 0

2 0 2 1

2 0 2 2

P e a k p o w e r d e m a n d [ M W ]

Historical peak demand [MW]

Projected peak power demand [MW] Low scenario

Projected peak power demand [MW] Base case

Pro ected eak ower demand MW Hi h scenario

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

2 0 1 4

2 0 1 5

2 0 1 6

2 0 1 7

2 0 1 8

2 0 1 9

2 0 2 0

2 0 2 1

2 0 2 2


Historical peak demand [MW]

Projected peak power demand [MW] Low scenario

Projected peak power demand [MW] B ase case

Pro ected eak ower demand MW Hi h scenario

Initial projections Sensitizedprojections


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The process of constructing these electricity demand projections, as well as comparing the

projections with those generated by CEB, led to the following conclusions and

recommendations:

The bottom-up, end-use procedure adopted by CEB resulted in projections for the basecase scenario that are consistent with the projections developed by the WB team for

the short term (2015-2017). The procedure adopted by CEB for generating the base

case projections for this horizon — in which the effects of energy efficiency and energy

savings programs, as well as of structural changes in the economy and the electricity

consumption habits of Mauritius, are not expected to strongly affect demand

forecasts — is deemed as adequate by the WB team.

The recent projections by CEB [6] obtained for the low growth and the high growth

scenarios for the period 2015 – 2017 were respectively above and below those generated

by the WB team for the low growth and the high growth scenarios. The difference was

significant for the low growth scenario, and less so for the high growth one.

The WB team had access to a document developed by CEB [9], which served as the

support material for a presentation before National Energy Commission (NEC), in

which the peak supply simulations and analyses are conducted exclusively for the base

case demand forecast scenario. This alone cannot be considered as evidence that the

low growth and high growth scenarios developed in the IEP 2013 – 2022 have not been

used for the planning activity. However, the WB team stresses the need to define

credible demand projection scenarios that are actually used by decision makers to

develop robust expansion plans.

As for the demand projections for the period 2018 – 2022, the intrinsic income-

consumption elasticities embedded in the recent projections by CEB [6] are rather low

(hovering around 0.7). While the WB team understands that this may be the result of

energy efficiency and energy savings programs that are expected to be developed in

the future, as well as of expected structural changes to the economy and the electricity

consumption habits in the Republic of Mauritius, these low values deserve particular

attention. Establishing the socioeconomic conditions that allow attaining such low

elasticities in a country with a developing economy, even when the growth of this

economy is heavily based on the services sector, is a challenging task.

Therefore, the WB team recommends that the evolution of the structural changes andthe energy efficiency and energy savings programs that are expected to allow attaining

such low elasticity values be continuously monitored, and that demand forecasts be

periodically adjusted based on the results of this monitoring. Furthermore, the WB team

recommends that long-term strategies for expanding the supply side of the power

system (generation, transmission, and distribution systems) be flexible enough to allow

for rapid response to any failure in achieving the expected effects of future structural

changes in the economy and energy consumption habits.


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In light of the previous recommendations, the assessment of the ability of the generation system

in the island of Mauritius to meet the demand for electricity was conducted both for the initial

and for the sensitized demand projections developed by the WB team and shown above.

Ensur ing the securi ty of electricity supply in the short term (2015 – 2017)

The results of simulations of the energy supply to peak demand in the island of Mauritius

carried out by the WB team1 revealed significant capacity gaps for the period 2015 – 2017. The

term capacity gap is used in reference to a situation in which the existing or planned installed

generation capacity is insufficient for meeting peak demand under the supply reliability criteria

currently adopted in Mauritius.

If the current expansion plan for the generation system of the island of Mauritius — i.e., the

currently programmed additions, redevelopments, and retirements of generators, as well as the

currently programmed termination of contracts — is considered for the assessment of supply to

peak power demand, the capacity gaps indicated in Table ES 1.2 are identified. Results of

analyses for the low growth scenario are not presented in this summary for the sake of

conciseness, but are available in following sections of the report.

Table ES 1.2 – Capacity gap to meet target reserve margin in 2015 – 2022, per demand

scenario, under the current generation expansion plan

In the short term, time constraints would very likely prevent any additions to the generation

installed capacity in the island of Mauritius that are not already planned and under development.

Therefore, the measures recommended by the WB team to eliminate the capacity gaps in this

horizon refer to enhancing the operation of the existing system, fast tracking generation projects

already in the pipeline, and extending the operation either of existing generation assets that are

scheduled for decommissioning or of IPPs whose contract is scheduled for termination.

Specifically, the recommended measures are:

1 The data available for the execution of the quantitative analyses by the WB team constrained the choice of

the methods and procedures used for the assessment of peak demand supply. Basically, the analysis approach

refers to a scenario-based evaluation of adequacy of supply to peak demand, employing procedures

analogous to those used in Mauritius for the development of the Integrated Electricity Plan 2013-2022. As

will be seen further in this document, after the delivery of the initial version of this report the WB team

received the results of planning studies conducted by CEB, in which generation expansion plans were

prepared and evaluated with help of the Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP) Package and using

probabilistic methods. A critical appraisal of the analysis with WASP is found in Annex I of this report.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Sensitiz. Base 35.3 51.2 65.2 79.4 93.8

Initial Base 42.9 67.1 90.1 114.1 139.0

Sensitiz. High 64.1 88.8 111.3 134.4 158.1

Initial High 72.2 106.1 138.9 173.4 209.7

Capacity gap to meet target reserve capacity margin [MW] in yearDem. projection

scenario

0 50.7 71.8

4.8 63.7 92.6


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(1) Optimizing the maintenance schedules of CEB’s plants and IPPs, with the main goal

of reducing the volume of generation capacity under maintenance during the off-crop

summer season.

(2) Negotiating a new power purchase agreement (PPA) with IPP CEL Beau Champ, toensure that it contributes to the supply of peak power demand until 2018, since the

plant’s original PPA is expiring in the second semester of 2015. Mauritian institutions

recently advised the WB team that negotiations for the extension of this PPA are

already under way, and that these negotiations refer to a “bridge” PPA, whose duration

would be three years.

(3) Fast tracking the addition of new heavy fuel oil (HFO) units of the Saint Louis power

station, to enable the commissioning of four new generating units, each with 15 MW

of injectable capacity, until the second semester of 2017.

(4) Implementing emergency voltage reduction in 2016 and 2017, to reduce peak powerdemand at times of low reserve capacity margins, by reducing the operating voltages

in the electricity grid. Detailed studies should be carried out as soon as possible to

determine a realistic value for the maximum reduction in demand attainable as a result

of emergency voltage reduction in the island of Mauritius,2 since the possibility of

achieving reductions higher than those corresponding to the conservative assumption

adopted in this report may eliminate3 the necessity of implementing recommendation

(1), above.

(5) Extending the operation of the Pielstick engines of the Saint Louis power station

through 2016, such that these units are retired only in the second semester of 2017.

Mauritian institutions should consider the measures recommended above as priorities to

ensure the security of electricity supply in the island of Mauritius in the short term.

The equivalent increments in the injectable generation capacity of the island of Mauritius

corresponding to the implementation of the above-mentioned measures are summarized in

Table ES 1.3. The effects of implementing these measurements are detailed in Part IV and

Annex II of this report.

2 Mauritian institutions recently advised the WB team that, according to estimates of their technicians, the

maximum reduction in demand attainable as a result of emergency voltage reduction in the island of

Mauritius would be of MW [12]. The WB team understands that this may be a very conservative assumption.

The team also understands that the potential for demand reduction attainable as a result of emergency voltage

reduction is more properly expressed as a percentage of demand, rather than as an absolute value in

megawatts.

3 The WB team understands that Mauritian institutions are currently concerned about the availability of spare

parts for the Pielstick engines and the physical integrity of the equipment, due to its advanced age. This

justifies the perception that Mauritian institutions may seek to avoid implementing recommended measure

(1).


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Table ES 1.3 – Equivalent increments in the injectable generation capacity corresponding

to the implementation of previously described measures

(a) Reported values correspond to the incremental effect of the measure. Incremental effect is calculated by assuming all

other measures (2) – (5) were implemented, and simulating the subsequent implementation of measure (1). Effects vary with

time, due to the assumption of proportionality of the capacity under maintenance with respect to the injectable capacity of the

system, with different proportionality factors for the crop and off-crop seasons. A decrease in the capacity out due tomaintenance in the off-crop season is assumed to lead to an increase in the capacity out due to maintenance during the crop

season, which explains the negative values in the table. Refer to section 5.4.1 for further clarification on this topic.(b) The original PPA with IPP CEL Beau Champ is assumed to be active until the first

semester of 2015 in the reference scenario. Therefore, the effect of entering the new "bridge"

PPA will be felt start ing in the second semester of 2015. The "bridge" PPA would expire only

at the second semester of 2018.

(c) The results of fast tracking these units are the following: the first set of new units of the St. Louis power

plant (30 MW of injectable capacity) would be operational at the second semester of 2017, instead of just atthe very end of this year (2017); the second set of new units of the St. Louis power plant (30 MW) would be

operational at the second semester of 2017, instead of the beginning of 2018. Refer to section 5.4.1 for further

clarification.

(d) Values reported are reductions in peak demand multiplied by 110%, since a reduction of δ% in demand would result in a

demand of (1+10%)∙δ% in generation requisites due to the 10% spinning reserve criterion. A reduction in demand is not

rigorously equivalent to an increase in the available capacity for the purposes of the calculation of the reserve capacity

margin (RCM), as the RCM is defined as the quotient of the available capacity by 110% of the demand, as detailed further in

this report. However, the simplification of reporting the reduction of demand as an increase in generation capacity is made

here to simplify the presentation of results. For simulations of the full effect of the emergency demand reduction, refer to thetables of Annex I. The results of the tables of this report that indicate the aggregate effect of all measures do not consider any

simplification of the results and were taken directly from the full simulations of Annex II.

(e) Though the units would be kept operable through 2016, there are concerns about the physical integrity

of the equipment, due to the advanced the age of the engines.

As indicated in Table ES 1.4, implementing these recommendations in the short term is

expected to significantly relieve the capacity gaps identified in the island of Mauritius for the

base case projections of demand growth. The capacity gaps verified for the base case demand

projections are sensibly reduced, but still result in violations to the – 5 percent reserve capacity

margin that are of 2.5 percentage points in 2016 and 2.1 percentage points in 2017, as detailed

in Chapter 5. These correspond to a capacity gap of 13.5 MW and 11.5 MW in 2017, as shownin Table ES 1.4. This means that the remaining capacity gaps can be eliminated by running the

system under stricter operating conditions — i.e., slightly violating the existing supply reliability

criterion. Alternatively, the technicians in Mauritius might seek to obtain a demand decrease

via emergency voltage reduction that is above the very conservative estimates of 5 MW recently

made available to the WB team. The implementation of higher levels of voltage reductions,

aiming to reduce a larger portion of the load and therefore avoid even these violations of up to

2.5 percentage points for the base case demand, is an emergency measure that can be adopted

if its feasibility is confirmed.

Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer

Off-crop Off-crop Off-crop

(1) Optimizingmantenance

11.4 -12.0 -10.7 16.9 -12.4 -12.4 (a)

(2) "Bridge" PPA with

IPP CEL Beau Champ

Not yet

implem. 12 12 22 12 12 22 12 12 (b)

(3) Fast tracking of new

units of St. Louis plant 60 30 (c)

(4) Emergency

voltage reduction 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 (d)

(5) Extending operation

of Pielstick units of St.L. 25 25 25 25 (e)

2015 2016 2017

Summer Summer

Crop Crop Crop

Equivalent

increase in

injectable

capacity due to

implementaion

of measurement

[MW]

C o m m e n

t

Not yet implemented

Not yet implemented

Not yet implemented

Year

Calendar season

Crop/off-crop season

Not yet implemented

Measure no

longer active


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Table ES 1.4 – Capacity gap to meet the target reserve margin in 2015 – 2017, per demand scenario (with

recommendations for period implemented)

From Table ES 1.4, it is clear that the island of Mauritius may face capacity shortages in the

short term if the demand grows as indicated in the high growth scenario, even if all of the above-

mentioned measures are implemented.

Ensur ing the securi ty of electri city supply in the long term (2018 – 2022)

Values in Table ES 1.4 indicate that capacity additions are required to ensure the adequacy of

electricity supply for the island of Mauritius during 2018 – 2022.

In the long term, new capacity additions (i.e., those not referring to projects already under

consideration or implementation) to the electricity generation system of the island of Mauritius

are needed from 2018. Given the time typically required for the installation and commissioning

of new generating units, meeting capacity gaps expected to occur in 2018 requires actions from

Mauritian institutions in the very short term. In particular, the procurement process for the

incorporation of new generation capacity should be initiated at the latest in January 2016.

Planning for subsequent years of the horizon is important to devise long-term strategies for the

power system in the island of Mauritius, but these indicative plans should be adjusted in

accordance with any future updates of demand projections.

The WB team recommends the following measures to ensure the adequacy of supply to peak

demand in the island of Mauritius in the long term:

(1) Implementing in 2015 the recommendations presented in this report on improvement

of the methodologies and procedures for power system planning. By doing this , the

Mauritian institutions will be able to optimize the amount of new generation capacity

actually needed and the related timing.

(2) Procuring additional firm generation capacity to be commissioned at the beginning of

2018. The island of Mauritius is expected to experience capacity gaps in 2018, partly

as a result of the cancelation of the CT Power project. Installation of new generationcapacity is needed to prevent these capacity gaps from materializing.

Given the time frame required for the implementation of generation projects, two

technological alternatives for the capacity additions were analyzed in this document

(both with 70 MW of injectable capacity): (a) a 2 × 36 MW gas turbine thermal plant

running initially on diesel; (b) a 3 × 24 MW HFO-fired internal combustion engine

plant.

These alternatives were compared based on their performance regarding the annual

capacity utilization costs (in United States dollars (USD) per MW installed per year).

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Sensitiz. Base 32.5 48.4 62.4 76.6 91.0

Initial Base 40.1 64.3 87.3 111.3 136.2

Sensitiz. High 61.3 86.0 108.5 131.7 155.4

Initial High 69.4 103.3 136.1 170.6 206.90 26.5 32.2

Dem. projection

scenario

Capacity gap to meet target reserve capacity margin [MW] in year

0 13.5 11.5


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Considering the results of this analysis and on other considerations detailed in section

5.5, the alternative recommended for the additional firm generation capacity to be

commissioned at the beginning of 2018 is the 2 × 36 MW gas turbine thermal plant

running initially on diesel.

Although gas turbines are by design dual-fuel (natural gas and diesel) machines, it is

recommended that the detailed specifications of the generating units of the new plant

be prepared to ensure the quick conversion of the gas turbines for operation on natural

gas at a later point in time, such that these units can be considered as the gas-turbine

phase of a combined-cycle, gas-fired thermal plant in the future.

Given the typical times required to incorporate new capacity, the procurement process

of the new power plants needs to be initiated at the latest in January 2016. If no

improved planning methods and procedures are implemented in Mauritius until January

2016, it is recommended to proceed with the procurement of gas turbines (to run

initially on diesel) in an amount (2 x 36 MW) that the currently applied planning

methodology indicates is needed, since no other formal and consolidated assessment

methodology will be available to support expansion planning decisions.

(3) Continuously monitoring structural determinants for electricity demand, and updating

demand forecasts for the long term. Insight on the importance of this measure may be

gained by verifying the significant difference in the capacity gaps reported in Table ES

1.4 for the initial and the sensitized demand projections. As explained in detail in

Chapter 3, these sets of projections differ in that the effects of energy efficiency and

energy savings programs, as well as the effects of structural changes in the economy

and the energy consumption habits, result in significantly lower demand growth in theisland of Mauritius in the sensitized demand projections. In fact, the analyses of Chapter

3 indicate that the current assumptions of Mauritian institutions about the effects of

these phenomena are very ambitious, with a significant decrease in the implied

elasticity of electricity consumption with respect to GDP growth starting in 2018.

Therefore, it is recommended that the evolution of the Mauritian economy and

consumption habits, as well as of the effects of energy efficiency and energy savings

programs, be continuously monitored, and that the projections of demand growth be

periodically updated to account for reasonable and quantifiable effects of these

variables over demand growth.

(4) Considering the ambitious nature of the assumptions regarding energy conservation

and structural changes that underlie the sensitized set of demand projections, as well as

the significant drop in the implied elasticities of demand to GDP for the demand

projected in the long term, the WB team considers the initial set of demand projections

as the reference scenario for determination of the new firm capacity additions required

from 2019 onward. The resulting recommended schedule of new capacity additions is

indicated in Table ES 1.5.


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Table ES 1.5 – Capacity additions (projects not currently under consideration or

under development) recommended for Mauritius in the long term: 2019 – 2022

The determination of the exact technology needed to correspond to these capacity

additions should be the result of detailed planning efforts that take into account the

recommendations of Part V of this report.

If the schedule of firm capacity additions indicated in Table ES 1.5 is implemented, the

capacity gaps in the long term are practically eliminated, as indicated in Table ES 1.6.

Table ES 1.6 – Capacity gap to meet the target reserve margin in 2015 – 2022, per demand scenario (with

recommendations for the period implemented)

It is worth emphasizing that the choice of methods and procedures for the assessment of supply

to peak demand adopted in this report was constrained by the data made available to the WB

team. With the information at hand, the team opted to adopt a deterministic planning procedure,

analogous to that currently used by Mauritian institutions. Nevertheless, the team identified

important recommendations about the improvement of the methodologies and procedures used

for generation system expansion planning in Mauritius, which are presented at the end of thisexecutive summary.

Another specific aspect of the planning criteria used for the development of the Integrated

Electricity Plan 2013-2022 in Mauritius deserves some comments. Under the methods and

procedures adopted for generation system expansion planning in Mauritius in the context of the

elaboration of the IEP 2013-2022, the contribution of renewable power plants with intermittent

output to the supply of peak power demand is considered to be strictly nil. Continuing to use

this practice may lead to an underevaluation of the attractiveness of this class of generators as

alternatives for generation system expansion planning, with the possible consequence of

limiting the future participation of renewable generators, such as wind and solar power plants,

in the country’s electricity matrix to suboptimal levels.

Probabilistic analyses carried out by Mauritian institutions were made available to the WB team

after the delivery of the initial version of the report. Yet, the modeling of renewable power

plants and of system operation for the purposes of these analyses also requires improvements,

as indicated in Annex I of this report.

These findings support the recommendations on the necessity to consolidate the modernization

of planning methods and procedures in Mauritius, in order to properly account for the

contribution of renewable generation technologies to the supply of peak power, without

2019 2020 2021 2022

90.0 - 45.0 45.0

90.0 90.0 135.0 180.0

Year

Capacity additions [MW]

Accumulated capacity additions [MW]

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Sensitiz. Base 0 0 0 0 0

Ini ti al Base 0 0 0 0 0

Sensitiz. High 0 0 0 0 0

Initial High 6.2 0 0 0 00 26.5 32.2

Dem. projection

scenario

Capacity gap to meet target reserve capacity margin [MW] in year

0 13.5 11.5


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13

disregarding the uncertainty and variability of their output. These topics are analyzed in the

following section of this executive summary.

Improving the methodologies and tools for power sector planni ng in Maur iti us

As the power system of Mauritius grows in scale and complexity, ensuring the security of

electricity supply requires that planners have access to adequate methodologies and

computational tools, and that the planning procedures are adapted to support the increased

complexity of the decision-making process.

The WB team has identified several items of the generation planning methodology currently

adopted in Mauritius that require improvement. These are particular instances of the broader

phenomenon of constraints to power system operation and expansion planning that arise as a

consequence of the set of methodologies, procedures, and computational tools currently

adopted in the country.

The WB team specifically recommends that the institutions of Mauritius consolidate the

modernization of the methodologies, procedures, and computational tools used for power

system planning in the country.

This modernization program can have the following steps:

(1) Identification of minimum requisites for methodologies, procedures, and computer

tools used for power system operation and expansion planning in the Republic of

Mauritius, given the current state of the system and the alternatives for its future

evolution.

(2) Incorporation of the following products and services:

a. Computational tools that allow the implementation of the methodologies and

procedures identified in item (1), above; and

b. Training of the CEB staff in the use of these methodologies and computational

tools, in the context of updated planning procedures.

(3) Construction of thorough databases to allow the use of the methodologies, procedures,

and computational tools indicated above.

Guidelines for identifying the requisites for the methodologies and tools to be adopted in the

island of Mauritius are presented in detail in Chapter 7. These guidelines are summarized

below:

(1) Methodologies and tools that support decision making under uncertainty should be

adopted. Given the uncertainty in factors that range from consumer behavior to the

variability of energy resources for renewable generators, engineers must have the right

instruments at their disposal to ensure that power system expansion is planned to

minimize risks — e.g., risks of extreme costs, of severe blackouts, of sustained capacity

shortages, of very poor performance related to emissions, etc.


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(2) The stochastic behavior of all variables in the system should be adequately modeled,

with particular attention to spatial and temporal correlations among them.

(3) Finally, methodologies and tools should be adopted that support integrated decision

making, considering all links of the chain of power system expansion and operationactivities. Assessing the impacts of decisions on the entire chain of expansion and

operation activities, including unit commitment, allows planners to balance the

structural reinforcements and operational flexibility and ensure the expansion plans

result in flexibility levels that allow maintaining reliability of supply cost-effectively.

Improving i nstitu tional aspects of the Mauri tian power sector

In the WB team’s view, the improvement of certain institutional aspects of the power system

planning activity — particularly of expansion planning — is of utmost importance to meet the

expectations of Mauritian society regarding electricity supply.

The recommendations of the WB team presented in this section refer to three main topics: (1)

the introduction of public consultation mechanisms as part of decision-making processes in the

electricity sector; (2) during the planning activities, the thorough and realistic consideration of

resource diversification, security of supply, and the environmental and other socially sensitive

dimensions of power system expansion and operations; and (3) the creation of proper

institutional conditions for the consideration of energy policy guidelines during the execution

of power system planning activities by CEB, and for achieving these policy goals as a result of

these planning activities.

Ensuring that the stakeholders of other sectors of society — electricity consumers, generation

project developers, communities in the vicinity of planned projects, etc. — are heard and have

their points of view considered both in the process of setting energy policy goals and in the

development of power system expansion planning activities based on those goals is also key to

ensuring that the development of the power sector meets the expectations of Mauritian society.

In fact, the numerous submissions of different stakeholders to the NEC, in the context of the

process of elaboration of its report Making the Right Choice for a Sustainable Energy Future

[15] , indicate the eagerness of different segments of Mauritian society (as well as of

international institutions) to contribute to the decisions on the development of the country’s

electricity sector.

The WB team recommends that formal public consultation processes be organized and held byMauritian institutions to define the energy policy goals, as well as during the process of

elaboration of power sector development plans (IEP) or development of documents stating the

country’s energy policy, and that the contributions of different stakeholders presented in the

context of these public consultations be duly evaluated by the competent entities. The obligation

to hold these consultations should be formally included in legal or regulatory instruments

defining the mandate and attributions of CEB and of the governmental bodies responsible for

the definition of Mauritian energy policy. From an organizational point of view, it is important

that public consultation processes are given adequate publicity, that they are executed within a

time window that allows the participation of all stakeholders interested in the energy planning


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activities, and that the procedures for the submission of contributions from these stakeholders

are simple and effective, to encourage participation.

The WB teams believes that formal public consultation is the right approach to address

realistically and transparently environmental and all other socially sensitive issues with directimpact on the options for expanding the power sector in Mauritius. The GoM should promote

and conduct a formal public consultation process to discuss key energy policy issues, such as

(1) mix of primary energy resources (firm and nonfirm, domestic resources and imported fossil

fuels, etc.) providing adequate levels of security of supply for the country; (2) policies and rules

to be met for the use of lands and location of facilities for power generation, transmission, and

distribution; and (3) standards to be met for all types of emissions produced by electricity

infrastructure in all segments (generation plants of all technologies, transmission and

distribution networks, etc.).

The definition of those issues is a fully sovereign decision of any country, involving all

segments of its society. There are no right or wrong options in those matters, and any

organization external to the country has no say on them. What really matters is to have an open

and transparent public discussion on those topics. The GoM should promote and conduct that

public consultation process, starting with the preparation of a draft document identifying and

describing the options (scenarios) available for the country, and an assessment of the costs

related to the eventual adoption of each of them.

It is of utmost importance that all constraints to the expansion of the power system are

considered for the definition of energy policy goals and at the expansion planning stage, as well

that the costs for the country of addressing those constraints are realistically assessed and

presented at that stage, to allow the proper comparison of different power system expansionalternatives and avoid cost overruns and delays during the implementation stage of power

system expansion.

Clear and preferably standardized protocols should support decision makers in the tasks of

comparing alternatives for power system expansion. These protocols should establish clear

criteria for the assessment of the costs and benefits of a project, considering all potential

environmental and socioeconomic impacts. The assessment should cover all stages of a

project’s lifecycle: conception, implementation, operation, and dismantlement. Guidelines

prepared by multilateral institutions, offering countries the possibility of customization to their

particular requirements, are available to assist in the creation of such protocols.From an institutional point of view, this task may require close cooperation — e.g., for the

exchange of information and the understanding of environmental constraints to power system

expansion — between the planning authorities and the governmental bodies responsible for

environmental licensing. Nonetheless, particular attention should be directed to avoiding that

the consideration of environmental dimension within the power system expansion planning

activity is reduced to obtaining environmental licenses as just another planning task. That is to

say, the main goal should not be merely obtaining the environmental licenses and permits for

projects already at the planning stage. Rather, the main goal is to ensure (1) that power system

expansion plans adhere to social expectations regarding the environment, and (2) that the costs


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of compliance with these expectations are properly assessed, in order to allow meaningful

comparisons of expansion alternatives under consideration of all of the relevant costs —

including, but not limited to, the costs of mitigation of environmental impacts.

Regarding the third topic, the recommendations of the WB team to the GoM are the following:

Implement mechanisms to allow governmental bodies (including the Ministry of Public

Utilities) to regularly monitor the compliance of the power system expansion process

with energy policy goals.

Increase the frequency of update and publication of energy policy goals, taking into

account not only the status of compliance of current plants with long-term goals, but

also any conjuncture constraints that may delay the achievement of these goals.

Enhance the preparedness of CEB to carry out actions required to meet policy goals,

through workforce capacity building.

Establish clear differentiation between the attributions of setting the energy policy (by

governmental bodies directly reporting to the central government) and of executing

power system expansion and operation under the guidelines of this policy (by CEB).

Make sure that other governmental policies (fiscal, industrial, environmental,

infrastructure development, etc.) are consistent with the objectives of the energy policy

and enable the achievement of its goals.


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PART II I . ASSESSMENT OF DEMAND FORECASTS

Electricity demand forecasts are a key input for the process of power system expansion

planning. For this reason, the technical analyses of this report begin with this topic.

This third part of the report is organized as follows:

In Chapter 1, the WB team presents its independent electricity demand forecasts. These

forecasts are termed initial forecasts, as they do not take into account the effects of

energy efficiency and energy savings programs expected to be carried out in Mauritius

in the longer term, nor do they take into account structural changes in the economy or

energy consumption habits that are relevant for demand forecasts.

In Chapter 2, these initial forecasts are compared with the most recent demand

forecasts indicated by CEB in [6]. This comparison reveals a possible strategy to

incorporate the effects of energy efficiency and energy savings programs in the initial

forecasts.

In Chapter 3, the WB team presents an approximate approach to factor the effects of

energy efficiency and energy savings programs, as well as those of structural changes

in the economy and energy consumption habits, on the initial forecasts, in the absence

of primary data that allow a thorough evaluation of the effects of these phenomena. The

forecasts obtained under this approach are termed sensitized forecasts in the remainder

of this document.

Recommendations on the topic of demand forecasting are presented in Chapter 4.

The following quantities are relevant for the forecasts:

(1) Energy sales refers to the amount of electrical energy sold in a given year to end

consumers in the island of Mauritius.

(2) Energy sent out is defined as the energy effectively injected into the electricity grid of

the island of Mauritius by CEB, IPPs, and continuous power producers (CCPs4), and

takes into account technical losses in the electricity grid.5

(3) Peak power demand forecasts, also referred to simply as peak demand or peak load

forecasts, refers to the maximum power demand in the electricity grid, also taking

technical losses into account.

4 According to the following definition of [2]: “In Mauritius, CPPs refers to sugar factories which generate

electricity from ‘bagasse’ during the crop season and export it to the CEB’s grid.”

5 No references to commercial losses are made in [2]. For this reason, the WB’s team assumes that they are

not relevant in the island of Mauritius.


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1 INIT IAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECASTS

In this chapter, the WB team presents the initial electricity demand forecasts for 2014 – 2022.

These forecasts are termed initial forecasts, as they do not take into account the effects of

energy efficiency and energy savings programs expected to be carried out in Mauritius in thelonger term.

1.1 Forecasts of electricity sales

The forecasts of the electricity sales in the island of Mauritius will be based on a traditional

econometric model [3], which relates electricity consumption to GDP levels according to the

following equation:

∙

where:

E t = electricity sales (in gigawatt-hours [GWh]) in year t ;

GDP t = gross domestic product (in international dollars6) in year t ;

α = linear coefficient;

γ = exponent of power function.

The model above is a constant elasticity model , which accounts exclusively for the income

elasticity of electricity demand (sales). In the method above, the income elasticity of demand

is constant and given by γ, since the elasticity is given by:

∙

The income elasticity of the electricity sales is the explanatory economic phenomenon

considered in the model above. Also, in this model this elasticity does not change with time,

which is due to the parameters α and γ being obtained by fitting the function to historical data,

and then kept constant for the whole projection horizon.

The use of a top-down aggregate forecast model, such as the one described above, is determined

mainly by constraints on the data available for the forecasting activities, and should not be

interpreted as a recommendation to use this model specifically or this class of models. In fact,

there are many benefits in using bottom-up end-use forecasting models, such as the possibility

to better estimate the effects of changes in the patterns of electricity consumption in time. For

6 GDP figures are presented considering purchasing power parity (PPP), which explains the reference to

international USD. An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GDP as the USD has in the

United States. Therefore, we often refer to international dollars simply as USD in this document, for the

sake of conciseness of notation.


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this reason, end-use forecast methods may be preferred over aggregate econometric models,

such as the one described above, whenever reliable data are available to be used as inputs for

them.

To select the historical data on electricity sales and on GDP to be used for the fitting of theabove model, we may consider the information displayed in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1 – Electricity sales in the island of Mauritius and GDP (PPP)

of the Republic of Mauritius7: historical data (2004 – 2014)

Sources: [4], [5], [6]

(a) Total sales for 2014 are provided in [6]. The reference did not contain the composition of sales by sector.

(b) GDP PPP data for 2014 were not available in [4] as the time of the elaboration of this report.

Not surprisingly, Table 1.1 reveals that the growth of the participation of the services sector in

the composition of the GDP has been accompanied by a growth of the share of the commercial

consumption segment in the total electricity sales in the island of Mauritius. The data reveal

that the economy (and the electricity consumption) of Mauritius is dynamically changing,

suggesting that the income elasticity of electricity consumption will also be changing

continuously. Since the econometric model used for the demand forecasts of this section does

not account for changes in the income elasticity of demand, we opt to adjust the model with

basis solely in the data for the last three years of the historical series for which data are available

on both total sales and GDP (2011 – 2013), to at least capture the trend corresponding to a more

recent stance of the economic and physical data.

Fitting the model to the data of this period results in the following values for the parameters: α

= 87.83 and γ = 1.070.8 Therefore, the resulting electricity sales forecast model is:

7 The GDP for the Republic of Mauritius is used as a proxy for that of the island of Mauritius (for which the

projections of electricity sales are executed), as no separate data of the GDP of the island of Mauritius are

available.

8 The reader will notice that the income elasticity implicit in this model is 1.070. Developing countries tend

to have slightly higher income elasticities of electricity demand; however, the lower value for Mauritius is

generally compatible with the preponderance of the services sector in the structure of the country’s economy.

Res Com Ind Other Agriculture Industry Services

2004 1,682.0 33% 30% 33% 4% 15.47 6% 29% 64%

2005 1,752.2 34% 31% 31% 4% 15.66 6% 28% 66%

2006 1,855.1 33% 31% 33% 4% 16.28 5% 26% 69%

2007 1,950.5 32% 31% 33% 4% 17.24 4% 26% 69%

2008 2,028.4 31% 33% 32% 3% 18.19 4% 27% 69%2009 2,043.2 33% 34% 30% 3% 18.73 4% 27% 69%

2010 2,147.5 32% 34% 30% 3% 19.50 4% 26% 70%

2011 2,201.4 32% 36% 30% 3% 20.26 4% 25% 71%

2012 2,266.8 33% 36% 29% 3% 20.91 3% 25% 72%

2013 2,354.9 32% 36% 29% 3% 21.58 3% 24% 72%

2014 2,422.0 N/A(a)

N/A(b)

Composition by sector of origin [%]

GDP, PPP

GDP, PPP [Billion

USD@2011]

Year

Electricity sales

Total sales

[GWh]

Composition by sector [%]


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87.83 ∙ .00

Using this model to obtain forecasts of electricity sales for 2015 – 2022 requires projections of

the GDP of the Republic of Mauritius for the same time horizon. We adopt the projections of

the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which are available for the period 2014 – 20199 [7]. The

corresponding projections of the annual GDP growth of the Republic of Mauritius, and the GDP

in constant 2011 international dollars corresponding to these projections for 2014 – 2019, are

indicated in Table 1.2.10 The growth rate used to obtain GDP estimates for 2020 – 2022

corresponds simply to the average growth during 2014 – 2019.

Table 1.2 – Projected GDP and GDP growth rates (base scenario): 2014 – 2022

For the analyses of this report, we are interested in obtaining electricity demand projections for

three scenarios: base case (or simply base projection), and high growth and low growth

scenarios (or simply high and low projections). The data in Table 1.2 will be used to obtain the

base projections. To obtain the high and low projections, we refer to [8], in which the IMF

presents projections of long-term economic growth for Mauritius for three scenarios: baseline,

optimistic, and pessimistic. The projected growth rates presented in [8] are sensitized with

respect to several items, but for each sensitivity analysis, projections are presented for the

baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios. Also, the difference in projected growth rates

between the pessimistic and the baseline scenarios, and between the optimistic and the baseline

scenarios, is approximately 30 – 33 percent for all sensitivity analyses. Therefore, to construct

the projections of GDP to be used in our electricity demand projections, we adopt the

assumption that the growth rates in the low growth scenario will be one-third lower than those

of the base case, and that those of the high growth scenario will be one-third higher than those

9 A consultation of traditional sources, such as the WB, the IMF, and The Economist Intelligence Unit,

revealed that no projections are available for the period until 2022.

10 The quantity originally projected by the IMF was the GDP based on PPP valuation in current international

dollars. Projections of the U.S. inflation, from the same source, were used to convert the original data from

current to constant international dollars. The growth rates reported in Table 1.2 are those implicit in these

projections converted to constant international dollars. The GDP values in constant 2011 international dollars

indicated in the table were obtained by applying the projected growth rates to the value of GDP (PPP) verified

in 2013, according to the WB database [4].

2014-2013 3.02% 2014 22.23

2015-2014 3.66% 2015 23.05

2016-2015 3.88% 2016 23.94

2017-2016 3.92% 2017 24.88

2018-2017 3.96% 2018 25.86

2019-2018 4.12% 2019 26.93

2020-2019 3.76% 2020 27.94

2021-2020 3.76% 2021 28.99

2022-2021 3.76% 2022 30.08

Biennium Year

Projected GDP (PPP)

growth rate

[%/year]

Projected GDP, PPP

[Billion USD@2011]


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of the base case. The resulting GDP and GDP growth rates for 2014 – 2022 are indicated in

Table 1.3. It is worth emphasizing that we do not assume any modification in the mathematical

model relating GDP and electricity sales across the scenarios.

Table 1.3 – Projected GDP and GDP growth rates (low and high growth scenarios): 2014 – 2022

The effects of applying the previously presented model results in the low, base, and high

projections of the electricity sales in the island of Mauritius are indicated in Table 1.4 and

Figure 1.1.

Table 1.4 – Projected electricity sales in the island of Mauritius

(low , base, and high projection scenarios): 2015 – 2022

Low scenario High scenario Low scenario High scenario

2014-2013 2.02% 4.02% 2014 22.02 22.45

2015-2014 2.45% 4.87% 2015 22.56 23.54

2016-2015 2.60% 5.16% 2016 23.14 24.76

2017-2016 2.62% 5.21% 2017 23.75 26.04

2018-2017 2.65% 5.27% 2018 24.38 27.42

2019-2018 2.76% 5.48% 2019 25.05 28.92

2020-2019 2.52% 5.00% 2020 25.69 30.36

2021-2020 2.52% 5.00% 2021 26.33 31.88

2022-2021 2.52% 5.00% 2022 27.00 33.48

Biennium Year

Projected GDP (PPP)

growth rate [%/year]

Projected GDP, PPP

[Billion USD@2011]

Low scenario Base case High scenario

2015 2,485.64 2,517.03 2,548.44

2016 2,554.85 2,621.68 2,689.42

2017 2,626.63 2,731.66 2,839.54

2018 2,701.31 2,847.63 2,999.95

2019 2,781.15 2,973.31 3,176.13

2020 2,856.17 3,093.06 3,346.33

2021 2,933.21 3,217.64 3,525.66

2022 3,012.33 3,347.23 3,714.59

Year Projected electricity sales [GWh]

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

E l e c t r i c e n e r g y s a l e s [ G W

h ]

Histor ical sales [GWh] Pro jected electrici ty sales [kWh] Low scenario

Projected electricity sales [kWh] Base case Projected electricity sales [kWh] High scenario


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Figure 1.1 – Historical and projected electricity sales in the island of Mauritius (low , base, and high

projection scenarios)

1.2 Forecasts of energy sent out

With the projections of electricity sales at hand, we proceed to the projections of energy sent

out . As previously mentioned, the energy sent out is energy effectively injected into the

electricity grid of the island of Mauritius by CEB, IPPs, and CCPs. Therefore, this quantity

differs from the electricity sales due to the technical losses in the electricity grid. As there are

no references to commercial losses in [2], the WB team assumes that these losses are not

relevant in the island of Mauritius.

The historical figures of levels of energy losses in Figure 1.2 (in percentage of the energy sent

out11) in Mauritius are provided in [2]:

Source: [2]

Figure 1.2 – Historical levels of technical energy losses in the electricity grid: 2001 – 2011

Figure 1.2 is succeeded by the following excerpt in [2]:

“It can be observed that the network losses of the country are continuously improving.

However, there is a limit to which the system losses can be reduced. For the planning

period, CEB has assumed a network loss of around 8%.”

This assumption of the maintenance of the levels of technical losses in the electricity network

at 8 percent is adopted for the analyses of this report. Considering this level of technical losses,

the projections of energy sent out for the three scenarios are indicated in Table 1.5.

11 That is to say, the losses level is defined as:

Losses [%] = [(total energy sent out – total energy sales) / (total energy sent out)] · 100%.


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Table 1.5 – Projected energy sent out in the island of Mauritius (low , base, and high projection scenarios):

2015 – 2022

1.3 Forecasts of peak demand

Finally, the forecasts of peak power demand in the island of Mauritius are approached. The data

for the calculation of the load factor of the power system in the island of Mauritius, presented

in Table 1.6, are relevant for these forecasts.

Table 1.6 – Data for calculation of the load factor in the island of Mauritius: 2004 – 2014

(a) Assumed data. Compatible with assumptions of [2].

(b) Assumed data on technical losses required for the calculation of the load factor.

Sources: [2], [5], [6]

It is clear from Table 1.6 that the load factor in the island of Mauritius has grown significantly

since 2004, even though with fluctuations (an increase to levels over 67 percent in 2007 and

2008, followed by a decrease to 65.67 percent and then a subsequent increase). This trend is

consistent with the increasing participation of the commercial segment in the consumption of

electricity, and with the typical load profile of consumers of this segment, with a significant use

of air-conditioning devices during all working hours during the summer season. Therefore, it is

fair to expect that the continuing growth of the participation of the services sector in the

economy of Mauritius, and the associated growth of the participation of the commercial


2015 2,701.79 2,735.90 2,770.042016 2,777.01 2,849.65 2,923.28

2017 2,855.03 2,969.19 3,086.46

2018 2,936.21 3,095.25 3,260.81

2019 3,022.99 3,231.86 3,452.31

2020 3,104.53 3,362.02 3,637.32

2021 3,188.27 3,497.43 3,832.24

2022 3,274.27 3,638.29 4,037.60

Year Projected energy sent-out [GWh]

Peak demand [MW] Date of occurrence

2004 1,682 10.5% 332.6 23-Nov-2004 1,879 8,784 214.0 64.33%

2005 1,752 11.1% 353.1 27-Dec-2005 1,971 8,760 225.0 63.72%

2006 1,855 9.5% 367.3 20-Dec-2006 2,050 8,760 234.0 63.71%

2007 1,951 9.7% 367.6 29-Nov-2007 2,160 8,760 246.6 67.08%

2008 2,028 9.5% 378.1 20-Mar-2008 2,241 8,784 255.2 67.48%

2009 2,043 8.6% 388.6 18-Feb-2009 2,235 8,760 255.2 65.67%

2010 2,148 8.2% 404.1 2-Mar-2010 2,339 8,760 267.0 66.08%

2011 2,201 7.9% 412.5 20-Dec-2011 2,390 8,760 272.9 66.15%

2012 2,267 8.0%(a)

430.0 Not Available 2,464 8,784 280.5 65.23%(b)

2013 2,355 8.0%(a)

441.1 Not Available 2,560 8,760 292.2 66.24%(b)

2014 2,422 8.0%(a)

446.0 Not Available 2,633 8,760 300.5 67.38%(b)

Number of

hours in

year [h]

Electricity

sent-out

[average MW]

Load factor

[%]

Electricity

sales [GWh]

Technical losses in

electricity network

[%]

Peak power demand and date of

occurrence

Electricity

sent-out

[GWh]

Year


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segment in electricity consumption, will continue to increase the load factor in the island of

Mauritius.

For the projection of peak demand, the WB team opts to assume that the load factor of the

Mauritian system will remain constant at the value estimated for 2014 (67.38 percent)throughout the horizon. This is a conservative assumption, since no improvement (increase) of

the load factor within the projection horizon (2015-2022) is assumed. Given a set of projections

of energy sent out, adopting a lower load factor for the projection of peak demand results in a

higher projection of this latter quantity, which is why we characterize the assumption of

maintenance of the load factor verified in 2014 for the whole projection horizon as conservative.

Given the projections of energy sent out indicated in Table 1.5, and considering the fixed load

factor of 66.15 percent for the horizon 2014 – 2022, the resulting forecasts of peak demand for

the three scenarios of interest of this analysis are those shown in Table 1.7 and Figure 1.3.

Table 1.7 – Projected summer peak demand in the island of Mauritius

(low , base , and high projection scenarios): 2015 – 2022

Figure 1.3 – Historical and projected summer peak demand in the island of Mauritius

(low , base, and high projection scenarios)


2015 457.74 463.52 469.30

2016 470.48 482.79 495.26

2017 483.70 503.04 522.91

2018 497.45 524.40 552.45

2019 512.16 547.54 584.89

2020 525.97 569.59 616.23

2021 540.16 592.54 649.26

2022 554.73 616.40 684.05

Year Projected peak power demand [MW]

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022


Historical peak demand [MW] Projected peak power demand [MW] Low scenario

Projected peak power demand [MW] Base case Projected peak power demand [MW] High scenario


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The instant power demands reported above in Table 1.7 and Figure 1.3 correspond to the

summer peak in the island of Mauritius. The winter peak (Table 1.8) is determined by

considering historical data provided in [9], in which a ratio of the winter to the summer peak

demand is reported as being 89 percent. This information seems to refer to the most recent

year — 2012 — for which data were available as of the elaboration of [9].

Table 1.8 – Projected winter peak demand in the island of Mauritius

(low , base , and high projection scenarios): 2015 – 2022

In this document, references to peak demand , without specification of the season in which this

demand occurs, allude to the summer peak demand.

2 COMPARISON WITH RECENT FORECASTS FROM CEB

In this chapter, the initial electricity demand forecasts elaborated by the WB team and presented

in the previous chapter are compared with the most recent demand forecasts indicated by CEB

in [6].

The comparison focuses on the forecasts of electricity sales and peak demand, and will facilitate

a discussion on a possible way of incorporating the effect of energy efficiency and energy

savings programs into the initial forecasts presented in Chapter 1, in order to obtain the

sensitized forecasts.

Figure 2.1 and Figure 2.2 indicate, respectively, the forecasts for electricity sales and peak

demand [6] for 2015 – 2022, as well as the historical values until 2014.


2015 407.39 412.53 417.68

2016 418.73 429.68 440.78

2017 430.49 447.71 465.39

2018 442.73 466.71 491.68

2019 455.82 487.31 520.55

2020 468.11 506.94 548.452021 480.74 527.36 577.84

2022 493.71 548.60 608.80

Year Projected winter peak power demand [MW]


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Figure 2.1 – Electricity sales in the island of Mauritius projected by CEB and historical data

Figure 2.2 – Peak demand in the island of Mauritius projected by CEB and historical data

Figure 2.3 compares the initial projections of the previous section with the demand forecasts

of the IEP 2013 – 2022.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2004 20

Documents

Mauritius Power Sector RAS Report Part 1