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Quality Growth – New Consumer Experiences
Matthew Phillips, Chief Development Officer
2 |
Disclaimer
Certain statements in this presentation
constitute or may constitute forward-looking
statements. Any statement in this
presentation that is not a statement of
historical fact including, without limitation,
those regarding the Company’s future
expectations, operations, financial
performance, financial condition and
business is or may be a forward-looking
statement. Such forward-looking statements
are subject to risks and uncertainties that
may cause actual results to differ materially
from those projected or implied in any
forward-looking statement. These risks and
uncertainties include, among other factors,
changing economic, financial, business or
other market conditions. These and other
factors could adversely affect the outcome
and financial effects of the plans and events
described in this presentation. As a result,
you are cautioned not to place any reliance
on such forward-looking statements. The
forward-looking statements reflect knowledge
and information available at the date of this
presentation and the Company undertakes no
obligation to update its view of such risks and
uncertainties or to update the forward-looking
statements contained herein. Nothing in this
presentation should be construed as a profit
forecast or profit estimate and no statement
in this presentation should be interpreted to
mean that the future earnings per share of
the Company for current or future financial
years will necessarily match or exceed the
historical or published earnings per share of
the Company. This presentation has been
prepared for, and only for the members of the
Company, as a body, and no other persons.
The Company, its directors, employees,
agents or advisers do not accept or assume
responsibility to any other person to whom
this presentation is shown or into whose
hands it may come and any such
responsibility or liability is expressly
disclaimed. The material in this presentation
is not provided for tobacco product
advertising or promotional purposes. This
material does not constitute and should not
be construed as constituting an offer to sell,
or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any
tobacco products. The Company’s products
are sold only in compliance with the laws of
the particular jurisdictions in which they are
sold.
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
3 |
Consumer NeedsMore consumers, more occasions
Consumer
focus
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
4 |
Future Opportunity Nicotine without tobacco
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
e-vapour
Chewing tobacco
Pipe/Rolling tobacco
Cigars
Snuff
` Cigarettes
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015
Nicotine by consumption vehicle
Consumers have enjoyed nicotine
in different formats for centuries
5 |
Consumers
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
The experience and rituals of smoking but without tobacco
Tobacco
Heated and
hybrid tobacco
products
Combustible
tobacco
products
e-vapour Nicotine
replacement
therapy
Non-Tobacco
6 |
Fontem Ventures
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
• Established Fontem Ventures
• Built our know-how
• Acquired and developed IP
• Acquired blu
• Assembling the technology roadmap
7 |
E-vapourQuality, Agility, Discipline
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
• Lean and scalable
operating model
• Science and regulation
will shape category
• Best brand in blu
• Pursuing best
experience through
technology
• Build presence in 4 key
markets then scale
• Licensing 1st generation
technology
Quality Growth – Our Assets and Strategy in E-vapour
Arthur Van Benthem, CEO, Fontem Ventures
9 |
E-vapour does not Fully Satisfy Smokers …Yet
• Low conversion rates, despite
high awareness and availability
• Reflecting smoker dissatisfaction
with EVP performance
• “an eVape is just not a cigarette”
85%
57%
6.5%
80%
85% of US smokers are aware of EVPs
57% of US smokers have tried
Only 6.5% are loyal users
80% of regular vapers continue to smoke
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
10 |
Endorsement is Building in Europe
• “e-cigarettes are 95% less harmful to your health than normal
cigarettes”
• “helps most smokers to quit tobacco altogether”
• “regulation should not be allowed to significantly inhibit the
development and use of EVPs”
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
• “today the work of the HCSP shows that e-cigarettes can be
considered as a tool for tobacco cessation for smokers… and
constitutes a harm reduction tool”
11 |
FDA Deeming Regulations
• Near term - compliance and costs will push out
least reputable suppliers
• Longer term:
– quality of EVP products will improve
– sales through legitimate retailers
– positive impact on our market share and margins
• Concern - product authorisation process
slows innovation
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
12 |
Expected Growth of E-vapour?
2020F
Canaccord
Technavio
Wells Fargo$34B
2019F2018F2017F2016F2015201420132012
$21B
80% in 4 markets todayUS, UK, France & Italy
90% in 7 markets by 2020Plus: China, Poland & Germany
Technology & Science Unlocks growth
GrowthNot linear
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
Quality Growth – Science of E-vapour
Joe Thompson, Director Product Science
14 |
Answers to the 4 Big Science Questions
What impact do EVPs have on
consumers?
What impact do EVPs have on
bystanders?
What is the addictiveness
and health impact of nicotine?
Do EVPs re-normaliseor act as a gateway to tobacco?
1 2
3 4
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
15 |
Impact of EVP on Consumers?
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
>98% reduction of harmful chemicals
Source: Rana Tayyarah, Gerald A. Long. Comparison of select analytes in aerosol from e-cigarettes with smoke
from conventional cigarettes and with ambient air Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology 2014, 70, 704-710.
Conventional
cigarettes
AirCarbon
monoxide
Carbonyls Phenolics Volatiles Metals TSNAs PAA PAH
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
100%reduction
>99%reduction
>99%reduction
>98%reduction
>98%reduction
>99%reduction
>98%reduction
>99%reduction
EVP
Q1
16 |
Impact of EVP on Consumers?
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
Reduced toxicity in vitro
Source: Misra, M.; Leverette, R.D.; Cooper, B.T.; Bennett, M.B.; Brown, S.E. Comparative in vitro toxicity profile of electronic and tobacco cigarettes, smokeless tobacco and
nicotine replacement therapy products: E-liquids, extracts and collected aerosols. International journal of environmental research and public health 2014, 11, 11325-11347.
Q1
Conventional
cigarettes
Control
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
Cytotoxicity
(NRU)
Bacterial
mutagenicity
(Ames)
Genotoxicity
(IVM)
>99%reduction
>98%reduction
>99%reduction
EVP
17 |
Supported by Clinical Trials
Source: D’Ruiz, C. Evaluation of biomarkers of smoke exposure in adult smokers following dual use and
complete substitution of cigarettes with electronic cigarettes. Tobacco Science Research Conference 2015. Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
Q1
% change in blood% change in urine
(0%)
(25%)
(50%)
(75%)
(100%)
E-cig use Dual use Cessation
-69% -35% -70%
1-OHP(pyrene exposure)
E-cig use Dual use Cessation
-94% -30% -94%
S-PMA(benzene exposure)
E-cig use Dual use Cessation
-85% -32% -86%
CEMA(acrylonitrile exposure)
E-cig use Dual use Cessation
-90% -26% -84%
MHBMA(1,3-butadiene exposure)
(0%)
(25%)
(50%)
(75%)
(100%)
E-cig use Dual use Cessation
-62% -22% -66%
NNAL(TSNA exposure)
E-cig use Dual use Cessation
-93% -37% -98%
NNN(TSNA exposure)
E-cig use Dual use Cessation
-83% -36% -87%
3-HPMA(acrolein exposure)
E-cig use Dual use Cessation
-82% -33% -88%
HMPMA(crotonaldehyde exposure)
(0%)
(25%)
(50%)
(75%)
E-cig use Dual use Cessation
-83% -23% -75%
Carboxyhaemoglobin [COHb](carbon monoxide exposure)
E-cig use Dual use Cessation
-37% -17% -99%
Nicotine(nicotine exposure)
E-cig use Dual use Cessation
-30% +15% -98%
Cotinine(nicotine exposure)
18 |
Impact Of EVP On Bystanders?
Source: Grant O’Connell, Stéphane Colard , Xavier Cahours and John D. Pritchard; An Assessment of Indoor Air Quality before, during and after
Unrestricted Use of E-Cigarettes in a Small Room. International journal of environmental research and public health 2015, 12, 4889-4907.
Q2
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
Conventional
Cigarettes
Air
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
Nicotine Harmful Chemicals
80%reduction
At background level
EVP
19 |
Do EVP Act as a Gateway to Tobacco?
• Investigating EVPs and smoking initiation,
relapse and dependency on nicotine
• 30,000 vapers enrolled
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
• EVP being a gateway to smoking is not evidence based
• Two behavioural studies by the UK Centre for Substance Use Research*
*Studies funded by Fontem Ventures
Q3
US study
• EVPs are a roadblock to smoking initiation,
not a gateway
• EVPs de-normalise smoking, rather than
re-normalise it
UK study
20 |
Addictiveness and Health Impact of Nicotine?
• Nicotine is regarded as addictive
• EVPs meet consumers smoking-ritual needs
• Growing evidence that EVPs support smoking cessation
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
No toxicity
concern
Nicotine is
regarded
addictive
Long term
health risks?
• No toxicity concern with nicotine in the small doses in an EVP
• USSG: Science is inadequate to conclude either way on nicotine and cancer
• Any long term risks are unknown
• Further long term research is required
Q4
21 |
Answers to the 4 Big Science Questions
What impact do EVPs have on
consumers?
What impact do EVPs have on
bystanders?
What is the addictiveness
and health impact of nicotine?
Do EVPs re-normaliseor act as a gateway to tobacco?
1 2
3 4
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
Consumer perception and behaviour assessment
Post-market surveillance
Quality Growth – Our Strategy in E-vapour
Arthur Van Benthem, CEO, Fontem Ventures
23 |
blu Strategy
Global
• blu
• Product range
Invest
• Brand
• Innovation
• Digital
Global
• blu
• product range
Build
• Lean and
scalable
operating model
Profitability
• 4 markets
• IP licensing
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
24 |
blu is the Best Brand
• The consumer preferred e-vapour brand
• Enjoy your moment, your truth, and make it matter!
25 |
Quality Growth
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016 Source: Nielsen retail audit
• Market
• Conversion
• Growth momentum
• Best product, best brand
• Consumer loyalty
26 |
blu Creates Value
Cigarettes
£0.50
blu G2
£0.58
blu
G3
£0.67
Daily gross margin earned with cigarettes and blu
from an average consumer in the USA
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
27 |
Sources Mainly from Lower Tar and Menthol
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
28 |
Four Levers to Drive Quality Profit Growth
OnlineTrade
margin
Pricing Economies
of scale
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
29 |
Roadmap to a ‘Better than a Cigarette’ Consumer Experience
Vaping
Flavour
Design
Accessories
Vape
Draw
Kick
Hit
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
30 |
Convince Yourself…
G3
works like a cigarette
Choice
Simplicity
Style
Familiarity
Responsive
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
31 |
E-vapourQuality, Agility, Discipline
Imperial Brands Investor Day | June 2016
• Lean and scalable
operating model
• Science and regulation
will shape category
• Best brand in blu
• Pursuing best
experience through
technology
• Build presence in 4 key
markets then scale
• Licensing 1st generation
technology