Martine e Guzman - 2002 - Population, Poverty, And Vulnerability Mitigating

4 5ECSP REPORT ISSUE 8

Population, Poverty, and Vulnerability

Mitch is considered to be the most powerfulhurricane to have hit Central America andthe Caribbean in the last two centuries aswell as one of the most destructive natural disasters ofrecent times. Its passage exposed the underlyingvulnerability of this region and threatened the veryfabric of the societies affected. Not only did it testthese societies capacity to face critical issues, but italso brought into question their social, economic, andpolitical structures.

Mitch, however, was not an isolated incident.Central America and the Caribbean are perenniallyexposed to natural hazards of a physical, geological,or meteorological nature. Table 1 portrays the deathsresulting from the regions recent vulnerabilities andvarious natural hazards. During the last 30 years,Central American natural disasters have caused morethan 56 million deaths and $22.45 billion dollars ofeconomic damage. Such destruction has contributedto the deterioration of the regions living conditionsas well as to a reduction in its rates of economic growth(ECLAC & CCAD, 2002).

Natural hazards become disasters because Central

America is extremely vulnerable. Social factors (highlevels of poverty), economic factors (failure to considernatural disasters in the location and characteristics ofeconomic activity), and environmental factors(inappropriate land use on steep slopes, deforestation,erosion, inappropriate location of settlements, andoccupation of watersheds) all compound thisvulnerability (SICA, 1999).

Given this blend of natural and social conditionsin the region, the recurrence of Mitch-type eventscan be expected in Central America and the Caribbean.Unfortunately, global attention to such threats tendsto wane quickly, with international assistance focusingprincipally on issues of short-term recuperation ratherthan on medium- and long-range prevention. A criticallesson from past disasters has not yet been put intopractice: more effective contributions require a long-range preventive approach directed to structural issuesrather than short-term remedial actions.

Within this perspective of longer-rangeprevention, policymakers need to pay greater attentionto the role of population dynamics. It would seemobvious that demographic factors such as settlement

POPULATION, POVERTY, AND VULNERABILITY:MITIGATING THE EFFECTSOF NATURAL DISASTERS

By George Martine and Jose Miguel Guzman

Hurricane Mitch was one of the most destructive natural disasters of recent times, and it exposed the underlyingvulnerability of the Central American region, where poverty magnifies the threat of natural hazards. Internationalassistance for national disasters tends to focus on short-term recuperation rather than on long-range prevention.Policymakers need to pay greater attention to the role of population dynamics within necessary preventionefforts. This article analyzes the relationships between demographic dynamics and Hurricane Mitch in CentralAmerica, and extracts from that experience lessons that can help reduce vulnerability to natural disasters in thelong run. Specifically, it centers on three aspects: How did demographic processes condition the areas vulnerabilityprior to Mitch? What are Mitchs consequences for population dynamics in the short- and long-term? How mustpopulation dynamics change in order to mitigate the effects of future natural disasters? Systematic use of suchinformation could help blunt natural-disaster impacts in three important ways: planning of spatial organization,reproductive health needs, and design of adequate information systems.

Abstract

George Martine is director of the UNFPA Country Support Team for Mexico.

Jose Miguel Guzman is population affairs officer in the CELADE/Population Division of the EconomicCommission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in Santiago, Chile.

(SUMMER 2002): 45-68

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patterns and migration are fundamental to the natureand gravity of natural-disaster impacts. Yet these factorsare rarely taken into account. Even the UNInternational Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction1

paid scant attention to population dynamics in itscampaign. True, policymakers and specialists alikeroutinely assert that population growth and rapidurbanization increase the negative effects of naturaloccurrences. However, this truism does not lead toeffective action. The relationship among naturaldisasters and development patterns, population growth,and spatial distribution has been rarely identified withclarity. At most, policymakers express a vague wishfor reduced population growth or an end to rural-urban migration. This approach is largely ineffective,since the underlying rationales for peoplesdemographic behavior tend to be overlooked.

This article (a) analyzes the relationships betweendemographic dynamics and Hurricane Mitch inCentral America, and (b) extracts from that experience

lessons that can help reduce vulnerability to naturaldisasters in the long run. Specifically, it centers on threeaspects: How did demographic processes conditionthe areas vulnerability prior to Mitch? What are Mitchsconsequences for population dynamics in the shortand long term? How must population dynamics changein order to mitigate the effects of future naturaldisasters?

As seen from Table 2, every Central Americancountry was affected by Mitch. Honduras andNicaragua were the worst hit. Although the frame ofreference for this article is the entire region, many ofthe illustrations below are taken from Honduras, thecountry most affected by this hurricane.

1. SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CONDITIONERSOF VULNERABILITY

The capacity to survive and recover from the effectsof a natural disaster is the result of two factors: the

Source: U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Hurricane Mitch on 27 October 1998

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Table 1: Important Natural Disasters in Central America and theCaribbean Since 1970

raeY yrtnuoC drazaHfoepyT shtaeD latoTnoitalupoPdetceffA

2791 augaraciN ekauqhtraE 000,01 000,004

4791 sarudnoH ifiFenacirruH 000,7 000,51

6791 alametauG ekauqhtraE 000,32 000,002,1

8791 ezileB,sarudnoH aterGenacirruH 5 ...

9791 acinimoD divaDenacirruH 83 000,18

9791 cilbupeRnacinimoD cirederF/divaDenaciruH 004,1 000,002,1

0891 itiaH nellAnacirruH 022 000,033

2891 augaraciN atellAnacirruH 96 ...

6891 rodavlaSlE ekauqhtraE 001,1 000,005

7891 cilbupeRnacinimoD ylimEenacirruH 3 000,05

8891 aciamaJ trebliGenacirruH 54 000,005

8891 augaraciN naoJenacirruH 611 000,581

9891 epuladauG,augitnA *oguHenacirruH 65 000,022

1991 aciRatsoC ekauqhtraE 15 007,91

2991 augaraciN imanusT 611 005,31

3991 augaraciN treGmrotSlaciporT 31 002,26

3991 sarudnoH treGmrotSlaciporT 301 000,11

5991 augaraciN sniaRyvaeH 23 343,1

6991 aciRatsoC raseCenacirruH 62 ...

6991 augaraciN raseCenacirruH 9 ...

6991 augaraciN ***onacloVaredaMnoitpurE 05 055,1

8991 ,cilbupeRnacinimoDitiaH

egroeGenacirruH 492 736,692

8991 augaraciN,sardunoH **hctiMenacirruH 008,91 000,003,1

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yrtnuoC ninoitalupoP sretlehS

yltceriDton(detceffA)sretlehsni

latoTnoitalupoPdetceffA

sulPshtaeDgnissiM

noitalupoPlatoT13detamitsE8991rebmeceD

sarudnoH 138,716 ... 863,173,5 517,31 434,132,6

alametauG 527,45 000,601 000,057 983 350,549,01

augaraciN 172,56 162,863 257,768 510,4 355,278,4

aciRatsoC 114,5 ... ... 9 222,688,3

rodavlaSlE 468,55 254,82 019,643 952 091,290,6

sarudnoH 9.9 ... 2.68 022.0 0.001

alametauG 5.0 0.1 9.6 400.0 0.001

augaraciN 3.1 6.7 8.71 280.0 0.001

aciRatsoC 1.0 ... ... 000.0 0.001

rodavlaSlE 9.0 5.0 7.5 400.0 0.001

physical magnitude of the disaster in a given area, andthe socioeconomic conditions of individuals or socialgroups living in that area. Vulnerability (the degree towhich a society or group is threatened by the impactof natural hazards) is differentiated by social groups inalmost all natural disasters. Altogether, it is estimatedthat 90 percent of victims and 75 percent of alleconomic damages from natural disasters are indeveloping countries (Thouret & DErcole, 1996, p.409).

As aptly stated by UN Secretary General KofiAnnan (1999b), ...poverty and population pressureforce growing numbers of poor people to live in harmswayon flood plains, in earthquake-prone zones andon unstable hillsides. In Central Amer ica, therelationship between socio-economic conditions and

the impact of natural disasters can generally beexpressed as follows: economic constraints force thepoor to live in precarious homes, made of flimsy, non-durable materials, on the least-valued plots of land.The poor build their shacks on steep hillsides; onfloodplains; in fragile ecosystems and watersheds; andon contaminated land, r ight-of-ways, and otherinappropriate areas. Even government housing andurban-development policies tend to overlookenvironmental constraints and lack adequate informationfor land-use planning. Inappropriate location invitesserious social and environmental problems, which areaggravated by deforestation as well as by inadequatemanagement of rainwater and wastes. During disasters,inadequate services and infrastructure furthercomplicate survival efforts. Health risks are similarly

Table 2. Population Affected by Hurricane Mitch

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accentuated. By comparison, the homes of the upperand middle classes are built with hardier materials onmore stable terrain, and their residents enjoy betterservices. These classes also have more resources withwhich to rebound from disasters. 2

In short, poverty is a central component ofvulnerabilitya centrality dramatically demonstratedby Hurricane Mitch. A task force formed by INCAE(Instituto Centroamericano de Administracin deEmpresas) and by Harvard Universitys Institute forInternational Development concluded that theconditions of poverty in Central America are thefundamental cause of their vulnerability in the face ofnatural disasters (Hernndez, 1999, p. 8). In Nicaragua,Hurricane Mitch most significantly affected thosemunicipalities with the highest levels of poverty,especially in rural zones (UNDP, 1998). In Guatemala,Vice President Luis Flores Asturias affirmed that thetragedy highlighted accumulated needs anddeficiencies as well as shoddy handling (Hernndez,1999, p. 8). And in Honduras, although the damagespread to all social strata, there is no doubt that thegreatest number of victims emerged from the mosthumble communities such as those of the Municipalityof Choloma, La Lima and El Progreso, its towns andbanana fields (Hernndez, 1999, p. 8).

In turn, demographic processes impact themakeup and persistence of poverty. Population growthand distribution result from the interaction betweenthree variables: fertility, mortality, and migration. Levelsand patterns of these three variables together define aregions vulnerability, including the size and spatiallocation of population in given social and economiccontexts. Even though the path of natural phenomenasuch as tropical storms is difficult to anticipate, the

occupancy and utilization of a given territory greatlyconditions the gravity of natural disasters. Similarly,varying reproduction patterns among different socialgroups determine the relative size of their familiesand, to a certain extent, their levels of poverty, housingcharacteristics, crowding, access to services, infra-structure, and other elements. These predestine notonly these groups susceptibility but also their capacityto handle natural disaster. The following analysis ofdemographic processes and their relation tovulnerability in the case of Hurricane Mitch willillustrate this phenomenon.

The three Central American countr ies mostaffected by Mitch are, coincidentally, thosecharacterized by the highest fertility levels in the region:Honduras, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. However,fertility levels among social groups differ significantlyin each of these countries, with the poorest sectorsshowing much higher levels. These fertility patternsreflect the fact that the poorest have the least capacityto exercise their reproductive preferences. As shownin Table 3, surveys conducted among the femalepopulation show that women from the lowestsocioeconomic level in Honduras have twice as manychildren as they would like.3 Their inability to exercisetheir reproductive rights is the starting point for avicious circle centered on the intergenerationaltransmission of poverty. Poor women have limitedinformation and resources to limit the number of births.They also tend to have less power in decision-makingon many topics, including sexuality and reproduction.Forced to rear many children, these women havegreater difficulty in obtaining paid employment,leading to a lower per capita income for their families.Their children have fewer educational opportunities,

Table 3. Honduras: Ideal Number of Children4 and TotalFertility Rate According to Socio-EconomicLevel

levelcimonoce-oicoS *RFT nerdlihcforebmunlaedI ecnereffiD

woL 9.6 4.3 5.3

elddiM 1.4 9.2 2.1

hgiH 7.2 7.2 0.0

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and when these children begin their sexual lifeoftenat an early agethey too will have little reproductivehealth information or resources, thus reinitiating thepoverty-high birth rate cycle.

Mortality levels also clearly differ bysocioeconomic strata. According to the 1996 ENESFSurvey in Honduras, a childs probability of dyingbefore the age of five is 64 per 1,000 in strata definedas low, compared to 38 per 1,000 in children in thehigh strata. These statistics demonstrate that thefactors behind differential mortality prior to Mitchmalnutrition, lack of access to services, poor water andsanitation, and so forthalso condition differentialsusceptibility to disaster.

But perhaps the most visible and direct relationbetween demographic dynamics, poverty, andvulnerability relates to patterns of spatial redistributionof the population. Rural-urban migration and urbangrowth, which partly result from poverty, also aggravateand heighten the impact of natural disasters. Over thelast decades, all Central American countries haveexper ienced migration that has increasinglyconcentrated their populations in urban areas,particularly in the most important cities. In Honduras,during the five years leading to that countrys 1988census, a majority of its internal migrants went to thenorthern and north-central part of the countrytheprovinces of Corts and Francisco Morazn. Although

these provinces did not endure the worst of HurricaneMitch, they didaccording to an ECLAC report(1999a), have the greatest number of people directly orindirectly affected by Mitch.

Migration currents in Central America have alsovaried by gender. Women primarily migrate to urbancenters, while men move proportionately more toagricultural areas. The sweatshop manufacturing industryconcentrated in San Pedro Sula and Puerto Corts hasparticularly attracted female labor. These migrationpatterns are consonant with those repeatedly observedthroughout Latin America during the last 50 years.

Rural-urban migration results from factors of bothexpulsion and attraction. In rural areas, agriculturaldemand for workers does not keep up withdemographic growth. Despite some migration tofrontier areas, rural areas have a surplus of workers.Concomitantly, cities attract migrants with a greaterrelative availability of jobs (whether real or perceived),higher incomes, and easier access to services. Theconcentration of population in the cities has resultedin a scarcity of housing alternatives for migrants. Ascapricious market factors determine spatial utilizationand access to land, cities cannot accommodate thethrong of recently arrived poor migrants. Consideringthe probability that rural-urban (as well urban-to-urban) migration will continue to increase, urbanmarginality can be expected to grow significantly.

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Figure 1. Theoretical Effects of Disasters on Mortality

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Vulnerability will also expand unless specific measuresare taken to counter current trends.

According to an ECLAC report on Mitchs effects,Honduras capital, Tegucigalpa, faces the same situationas other Latin American cities, where there is

inappropr iate ter r itor ial occupation andutilization with a lack of regulations for urbanorganization and construction. These factors,coupled with urban growth and a high incidenceof poverty, result in conditions which could implythat a significant part of the population of thiscity may be exposed to ser ious r isks asexperienced with Hurricane Mitch (ECLAC,1999a).

2. SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS OFHURRICANE MITCH

A series of questions related to the specific effectsof Mitch on the socio-demographic dynamics of theregion are worth raising. How has Mitch impacteddemographic trends and levels of mortality, fertility,and migration? How are the dynamics of thedemographic transition affected in the short and longterm? How has reproductive health been affected? Towhat extent do demographic factors determine a poorpopulations level of vulnerability to disasters?

Quantifying the demographic effects of disastersis a complex task. The effects may be direct or indirect,immediate or longer-term. Long-term effects maybe difficult to perceive and may themselves result frominteraction between demographic variables and anumber of other factors also affected by disasters, suchas changes in the structure of production, ininfrastructure, in communications, or in access to basicservices. The effects of these changes may go indifferent directions, depending on the nature andeffectiveness of actions taken following the disaster.

In addition, concrete data (beyond the numberdead or missing due to Mitch) are difficult to obtain.The lack of baseline information hinders theestablishment of detailed and reliable estimates of director indirect and short- or long-term effects. In spite ofsuch difficulties, a simple model of possible relationsand effects of Hurricane Mitch on demographicvariablesand on population dynamics in generalprovides interesting leads. The exercise in this casefocuses on Honduras. (see page 62 for a map ofHondurasd departments.)

Effects on demographic variables

MortalityFigure 1 shows the theoretical effects of Hurricane

Mitch on total mortality rates in Honduras. The onlyconcrete data available refer to direct effects. If we addthe number declared missing to that of the confirmeddead, Mitch caused an estimated total of 13,567 deaths.

These figures imply a 42 percent increase in thenumber of deaths for the year, using as a baseline thetotal number of deaths expected in the country undernormal circumstances in 1998 (32,000). A similarimpact on total deaths (42 percent) may be applied tothe crude death rate (i.e. the number of deaths per1,000 population in a year). The mortality rate, however,was greater in some of the larger provinces such asGracias a Dios and the Islas de la Bahia, where deathscaused by Mitch exceeded the average annual deathtotal by close to 400 percent.

Only fragmentary data are available in relation toshort-term indirect effects on Honduran mortalitythat is,deaths resulting from hurricane-related deteriorationof health conditions. Health authorities confirm anincrease in infectious and respiratory diseases, whichsuggests a likely increase in the number of deaths(particularly if, as can be expected, the lethality levelsof these diseases increased). These factors could havea particularly severe impact on children and the elderly.Although vital statistics do not reveal the magnitudeof these short-term effects, figures provided by theHonduran Ministry of Health show a 20 percentincrease in the incidence of diarrhea in the under-15population as well as epidemic outbreaks ofleptospirosis and conjunctivitis, skin diseases, and acuterespiratory infections (Ayes Cerna, 1999). No reliablequantitative data exists, however, regarding the extentof the latter epidemics. Residual after-effects of a morepermanent nature can also be expected because oflack of access to drinking water and sanitation as wellas the deterioration of conditions in health centers.

Indirect medium-term effects of Mitch on Hondurashave been even more difficult to identify. Nevertheless,the magnitude and direction of these effects likelydepend on whether or not the damage has motivated(a) the reactivation of economic activity, and (b) thereduction of social and economic vulnerability inimportant segments of the population. Levels ofinternational assistance and the post-Mitch expansionof sectors such as the construction industry (as well asthe intensification of anti-poverty actions) impact on

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medium-term effects. These effects also depend onthe extent to which the Honduran governmenttransforms difficulties into opportunities through itspolitical and economic policies. In the second meetingof the Consultative Group for the Reconstruction andTransformation of Central America (StockholmStatement, 1999), the international community ofdonors committed $9 billion to the reconstructionprocess (Stockholm Declaration, 1999). Reconstructionplans have focused primarily on: (1) the reactivationof the economy, (2) the alleviation of poverty, (3) therational utilization of natural resources and protectionof the environment, and (4) the promotion of localinitiatives that can help mitigate vulnerability to naturaldisasters.5

Hurr icane Mitch likely caused a temporaryreversal in Honduras epidemiological transition. Inthe period immediately following Mitch, severalfactorsincluding interruption in the water supply,

deterioration of basic services such as garbage removal,breakdowns in already precarious sewage facilities, andlimited effectiveness of the health systemopenedthe door for the resurgence of communicable diseases(such as cholera, dengue, and malar ia) that hadpreviously been held in check. However, thepromotion of the reconstruction process in generaland in the health sector in particular as well as therecovery of economic activities suggest that Mitch willaffect the epidemiological transition less severely inthe medium and long term. Moreover, Honduranhealth programs for emergencies are generally moreeffective then in the past and include efforts to preventepidemics.

No reliable or detailed information is availablerelating the mortality caused by Mitch to differentsocioeconomic strata of the Honduran population.Nevertheless, two pieces of evidence indicate that thepoor experienced the greatest mortality levels. First,

Figure 2. Relative Risk of Being Affected by Hurricane Mitch,San Pedro Sula, Honduras, 1999(Heads of Households)

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observations carried out on the effects of the hurricaneshow that, in both San Pedro Sula and Tegucigalpa,the areas with the greatest number of missing and deadare also environmentally unsafe areas (susceptible tolandslides, floods, and other disasters) that house thecities poorest inhabitants (ECLAC, 1999a).

Second, the composition of the population inshelters can be taken as a valid indicator ofvulnerability. Data from shelter censuses in San PedroSula and other surveys carried out by city authoritiesare broken down by education level. As Figure 2displays, the population with no education at all had arelative risk of being affected by Mitch some 80 timesgreater than in the population from the highesteducational levels. A huge difference in relative riskwas also found between households headed by personswith no education at all and those with at leastelementary education. The former categoryconcentrates the most vulnerable segment because ofabject poverty, the lack of access to information, andthe difficulty of processing available information.

Impacts on Reproductive HealthNatural disasters heighten pre-existing situations

of precariousness and vulnerability. In the case ofreproductive health, they can accentuate reproductive-health needs by intensifying the practical inability ofmany couples and individuals to exercise theirreproductive rights. Disasters have an immediate effecton health conditions, on access to health services ingeneral, and on reproductive health in particularbecause of several dynamics:

Deterioration of health services, infrastructure,equipment, medical drugs, and medical materialsas a consequence of the disaster;

Difficulty in access to services as a direct consequenceof the disaster and its impact on communicationsand transportation;

A shift in medical priorities away from reproductivehealth services; and

An increase in sexual abuse, in sexually transmitteddiseases (STDs), and in unwanted pregnanciesbecause of conditions and lack of privacy in shelters.

The factors that aggravate such negative effectsinclude: (1) the extent of the disaster itself in eachcountry or region; (2) the level of impact on healthservice infrastructure; (3) the countries financiallimitations; (4) the populations level of dependencyon public services; and (5) the types of contraceptive

methods available. Changes in the assignment ofpriorities in national ministries of health (such asprioritizing certain infectious and respiratory diseasesat the expense of other areas) also play a role.Investments in infrastructure are often emphasized overdirect preventive actions, given the imperative needto reconstruct health centers after the disaster.

A significant portion of the population may facesevere difficulties in accessing contraceptive methodsand information in the post-disaster period. Giventhat the poorest segments of the population rely moston the public services hardest hit by the emergency,reproductive health services can suffer severedeterioration exactly in those districts where they aremost needed. In the specific case of family planning,limited access to contraceptive methods (leading totheir non-use or to the temporary use of ineffectivemethods) may produce an increase in unwantedpregnancies or in abortions. In addition, delays areinevitable in the implementation of new programs,both in education and in services. If all thesepossibilities occur, fertility or the number of abortionsin the region would increase. Unprotected sexualrelations could also lead to an increase in STDs. Thisrelates in part to the increase in rape cases, a problemthat tends to increase under the promiscuousconditions and lack of controls prevailing in times ofdisaster.6

Mitchs actual effects on fertility have to be viewedin different time frames. In the short term, crisis anddisaster analyses show that the immediate impact isusually a decrease in the rate of pregnancies andfertilitydespite the above-mentioned breakdown inaccess to contraception and information. In the wakeof a natural disaster, marriages are often postponed orcancelled and temporary or permanent separationsincrease; there is also temporary delay in pregnanciesbecause of less-frequent sexual relations. There couldalso be an increase in amenorrhea (cessation ofmensturation in women of child-bearing years) causedby stress or prolonged malnutrition (see Curson,1989), although there is no concrete evidence todemonstrate this in the present case.

The magnitude of these changes not only relatesto the size of the affected population but also to theduration of the crisis. Mitch likely had a relativelyminor short-term impact on fertility during the heightof the crisis, given the relatively brief duration of itseffects on housing arrangements and family separationsas well as the fairly rapid recovery of economic activitiesfor the majority of the affected population.7 Effects

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would only be noticed, if at all, in a reduction in birthsduring the months of July and August 1999. As of thiswriting, there are no monthly data available that canbe used to verify this.

There are also medium-term effects. Just as fertilitytends to decrease in times of crisis, it also tends toincrease with recovery. Experiences of war, famine,and other disasters clearly demonstrate this trend. Thisincrease is explained by the recovery of postponedpregnancies, by the tendency of couples to replacelost children, and by the increase in marr iagespreviously delayed or occurring as a result of theoptimism which is often displayed some time afterthe crisis. However, in evaluating these effects, twofactors must be considered. First, other natural disastersand socioeconomic crises affect the daily lives of mostof the regions inhabitants. Therefore, medium-termeffects of Mitch could be conflated with those comingfrom other events. Second, the prolongation of the

social crisis because of delayed reconstruction effortsand the economic difficulties of the country couldcontinue to depress the birth rate. But the deteriorationof reproductive-health services and limited access toservices could lead to an increase of non-desired births.Recent data from the a 2001 survey show that fertilityfor the period 1999-2001 was a little higher thanprojected (Secretara de Salud, ASHONPLAFA &CDC, 2002).

In short, tracing the real effects of natural disasterssuch as Mitch on reproductive health and on fertilityinvolves reviewing a complex array of factors indifferent time sequences that would need to beanalyzed in depth through a detailed field survey. It isclear that pre-existing situations of precariousness andvulnerability are heightened as a result of disasters.Sexual and reproductive behavior undergo abruptalterations. Access to reproductive health servicesdeteriorates noticeably. Untying the many threads of

Figure 3. Percentage of Expected Population Growth inHonduras for 1998 which Failed to Occur Due toExcess Mortality Caused by Hurricane Mitch

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causality in this process, especially at the aggregatelevel, is a daunting task.

Impacts on MigrationFollowing a crisis or disaster, the number of people

migrating in search of new opportunities tends toincrease. This migration may result from displacementdue to the loss of belongings (housing, lands, etc.)and the need to find new employment and income.

Changes in the structure of production caused bythe effects of Mitch (in agriculture, for example) alsoresulted in increased migration. In Honduras, althoughhighland subsistence crops fared better, the hurricanedevastated banana, coffee, sugar, citric fruits, and othercrops. Roads and warehouses were flooded. InNicaragua, cereal crops, produced mostly by smallfarmers, were seriously affected, as were main exportcrops and cattle ranching. In Guatemala and ElSalvador, damage was less ser ious althoughnevertheless important. Altogether, a significant portionof the population lost its source of subsistence. Theseagricultural losses likely resulted in increased rural-urban migration (ECLAC, 1999b; 1999c; 1999d; 1999e).

Unfortunately, there is no empirical informationavailable to validate these plausible hypotheses, and,unless special surveys are carried out, we will have toawait the next census in order to determine the extentto which Mitch has altered spatial distribution in theregion. The same is true with respect to internationalmigration. Although an increase in movement abroadhas been widely publicized in newspaper accounts,empirical evidence is still limited.8 Two measures takenby the United States in response to Mitchthedesignation of temporarily protected migrants dueto environmental disasters; and the suspension ofdeportations from the United States of illegal citizensfrom Guatemala until March 8, 1999were beneficialfor Central American migrants (Embajada, 1999).

Impacts on Population GrowthMitch had a significant effect on population growth

in Honduras in 1998. As Figure 3 demonstrates, closeto 10 percent of expected growth did not materializein 1998 due to the effects of Mitch. Some Honduranprovinces were considerably more affected. Withoutfactoring in migration, the departments of Islas de laBaha, Gracias a Dios, and Santa Brbara sawpopulation growth reduced by 92 percent, 62 percent,and 40 percent, respectively. At the aggregate level,the long-term impact of Mitch on population growthwas probably negligible because of the normally high

growth rate of the population and the short-term effectsof Mitch on mortality.

3. POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR THEPOST-MITCH ERA

Reconstruction efforts in the post-Mitch era aimedat mitigating the impacts of natural disasters and atpromoting sustainable development in Central Americashould take demographic processes into closerconsideration than they have in the past. Three aspectsrequire particular attention for long-range preventiveactions: spatial redistribution, reproductive health, andthe development of information systems. Potentialcontr ibutions can be divided into three stages:prevention, emergency, and recovery. This analysisfocuses largely on the prevention phase.

PreventionMitch clearly demonstrated the limitations of

interventions carried out only in a posteriori mode. Eventhough timely actions during and after the crisis wereimportant, the most critical investments evidentlyconcern the prevention phase. In this regard,policymakers should take proactive actions to plan thespatial distribution of population in order to reducethe effects of future disasters. Actions in thereproductive health sector are also critical. Early-warning systems and other data collection systems canmake a significant contribution to reducing a disastersimpacts.

Spatial Distribution and VulnerabilityIn efforts oriented toward providing a safer future

for the population of Central America, improvedplanning for the utilization of geographic space cancontr ibute to greater sustainability and personalsecurity. The spatial location and organization of humanactivity is a critical determinant of risk in naturaldisasters. In order to attain a better balance betweenspace, sustainability, and the reduction of vulnerability,planners and policymakers must review traditionalframeworks and integrate a systematic concern withpopulation-redistr ibution dynamics into recon-struction and development efforts.

Stimulating new patterns of spatial organization inorder to reduce vulnerability and to promote longer-term sustainability requires a proactive and holisticapproach, encompassing demographic, economic, andenvironmental aspects. Addressing this challengerequires a new conceptual tool, which we call the

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sustainable use of space.9 This approach starts with theobservation that every country has a population of sizeX, growing at the rate of Y, which has to distributeitself over territory Z. The key question in this contextishow can this population (a) be best distributed overthis land area in order to promote sustainability andmitigate vulnerability, while (b) also exploiting thecountrys comparative advantages? The challenge is toidentify available concrete options for spatialdistribution, evaluate each options advantages anddisadvantages, and devise possible instruments for thepromotion of the most sustainable options.

As noted earlier, current patterns of populationdistribution, determined largely by market factors, resultin poor Central Americans being forced to occupyenvironmentally hazardous areas. The poor have nochoice but to occupy disaster-prone areas such asriverbanks, steep or unstable hillsides, deforested landsand toxic grounds, or environmentally critical land suchas fragile ecosystems or water catchment areas (Hardoy& Satterthwaite, 1989). Such location patternscontribute enormously to the vulnerability of poorpeople while also endangering the overall population.And this vulnerability is compounded by

inappropriate ways of using and managing naturalresources which damage the physical and biologicalenvironment, exposing certain areas and theirinhabitants to the direct and indirect effects of theseevents (Brcena, 2000).

How can this trend be reverted? Do we have acoherent game planbased on considerations ofvulnerabilitythat would allow us to change thissituation? In which directions would we ideally wantto promote growth? What do we know about the idealmap that could help us take a proactive stance to reducethe vulnerability of poor people in Central Americancountries?

Dealing with this issue effectively presents bothpolitical and technical difficulties. From a politicalstandpoint, intervening in land use requires building aculture of prevention. Such an intervention would alsoinvolve short-term costs, long-term investments, andlow political returns that politicians anywhere are loatheto assume. As UN Secretary General Kofi Annan hasobserved, [b]uilding a culture of prevention is not easy.While the costs of prevention have to be paid in thepresent, its benefits lie in a distant future. Moreover, thebenefits are not tangible: they are the disasters that did

Figure 4. Urbanization in Honduras, 1950-2030

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not happen (Annan, 1999a). In addition, land planninginvolves interfering in one of the most volatile andlucrative of speculative markets, thereby invitingconfrontation with politically significant economicinterests. Hence, it will never be easy to convincedecision-makers to invest in the type of long-term landplanning required to mitigate the effects of naturaldisasters. Crisis periods have to be exploited in orderto help build up momentum and public opinion foressential decisions. Progressive segments of society haveto be informed of the benefits of such decisions as wellas the costs of not taking a proactive stance.

Policymakers then must base their prevention planson a sound technical platform. A two-step approach isrecommended. First, populations at r isk must beidentified. These risks include: sporadic catastrophessuch as hurricanes and earthquakes; recurrent eventssuch as droughts and floods; and other problems such

as landslides, which may result from natural disasters,human interventions, or both. Next, settlement anddevelopment of these high-risk lands must be regulated,limited, or even prevented. GIS systems and historicalregisters can be used to identify areas subject to flooding,seismic movements, droughts, landslides, and even therecurrence of hurricanes. GIS can also enable researchersto analyze the occupational density of areas at risk,evaluate the degree of risk involved, and thus measurethe relative urgency of population relocation. Obviously,availability of this information does not guaranteepeoples willingness to move from high-risk areas. Thefact that people continue to settle along the San AndreasFault or in Mexico City indicates that other factors suchas economics and tradition will always influenceresidential decisions.

Secondly, in order for population relocation effortsto work, viable alternatives for demographic/economic

A sign prohibiting construction in an area damaged by Hurricane Mitch in Jose Cecilio del Valle,El Salvador. Current patterns of population distribution, determined largely by market forces, resultin poor Central Americans being forced to occupy environmentally hazardous areas.

Credit: Jim Stipe, Lutheran World Relief. (Photograph courtesy of Johns Hopkins University Centerfor Communication Programs.)

Aftermath of Mitch: El Salvador

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expansion have to be offered. Those areas should beidentified that can absorb the people (whether newmigrants or long-time residents) who would otherwiseseek to reside in vulnerable areas or in protectedecosystems. This analysis inevitably involves economicand political as well as socio-environmentalconsiderations: if population distribution ultimatelydepends upon the spatial location of economic activity,the reduction of vulnerability and the protection of theenvironment requires an integrated approach todevelopment. The growing field of strategic-impactassessment can contribute considerably to this effort.In the current economic context, an integrated approachwill require public/private/civil-society cooperation inorder to exploit a countrys economic advantages withoutincreasing vulnerability and degradation. The states roleis to or ient economic advantages using fiscalmechanisms and other incentives or disincentives suchas zoning, building codes, permits, taxes on vacant areas,and fees in order to protect fragile areas, control densities,and define appropriate land uses.

In short, mitigating vulnerability and promotingsustainability require a proactive approach to the use ofspace that combines economic benefits with social andenvironmental concerns. Despite challenges, progresscan be made primarily in two areas: (a) urban growth,and (b) regional development. Each of these dimensionswill now be examined briefly.

a) Urbanization and Urban GrowthDespite the intensity of past migration flows, urban

growth is still at an intermediate stage in most of CentralAmerica. Urbanization levels remain relatively low byLatin American standards, although they have increasedsignificantly in recent decades. The proportion of thetotal Central American population living in urban areascurrently varies between 40 and 55 percent (CELADE,1999). More importantly, this proportion is expected toexpand several times during the coming generations.In Honduras, for instance, the urban population grewfrom 28 percent in 1970 to 44 percent in 1996. By theyear 2030, it is estimated that the countrys urbanpopulation will have increased to 7.3 million,representing 64 percent of the total population. (SeeFigure 4.) That is, the number of persons living in urbanareas in Honduras will likely increase by 4.7 millionduring the interim.

Other countries in the region have experiencedthe same pace of urban growtha pace that is projectedto continue. In Guatemala, for instance, the urbanpopulation is expected to triple from 4.3 million in

1996 to 13.4 by the year 2030. (See Table 4.) CentralAmerican urban populations are projected to increaseby an estimated 23 million people over the next 30years. The geographic and physical placement of theseadditional people (as well as the quality of housing andconstruction) will help determine the regions futurevulnerability. Should current trends persisttrendsmarked by the absence of effective land-use planningin urban areas, the neglect of the needs of the poor, andthe domination of haphazard market forcesit canalmost be guaranteed that the population of Central Americawill become increasingly vulnerable to natural threats.

What can be done to prevent this increasingvulnerability? On the one hand, efforts can and shouldbe made to improve living conditions in rural areas.Reducing rural poverty and providing rural dwellerswith health services (especially in the area ofreproductive health) would lessen the incidence ofundesired fertility and thus the rural populations rateof growth. Improvements in living conditions for ruralpopulations would help reduce migration to urbanareas, thereby reducing the intensity of urban growth.Nevertheless, history teaches us that no agricultural ordemographic policy is likely to retain population inrural areas indefinitely, or even to significantly affectongoing urbanization trends.

Hence, an analysis of demographic processes andtheir relation to natural disasters reveals the need toinitiate explicit and effective land-use planning in urban areasin order to cope with the inevitable: the intensificationof city growth and the tripling of current urbanpopulation size.

Facing such challenges requires a change inmentality, attitude, and approach. Most disaster-responsepractices and experiences deal with rural people andrural disasters. Now, disaster response must addressurban needs, with particular attention to the dimensionsof urban growth and urban concentration. Authoritieshave traditionally resisted urban growth instead of tryingto organize it. Consequently, migrants pressured by thelack of resources and by a speculative land market havebeen forced to occupy the least desirable and leastadequate sites.

The negative stance of political authorities towardsurban growthspecifically, their perennial attempts todeny the inevitable nature of urban growth andurbanizationhas prevented effective solutions andcontributed to compounding vulnerability. In facing upto this challenge, efforts should focus principally onthe identification and occupation of new and appropriatelocalities for migrant occupation. Trying to redress errors

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and improve conditions in existing residential areas willlikely prove extremely costly in political and economicterms, and hence relocation may generally be the mostviable option. Focusing on new potential areas for urbanexpansion is also justified by the fact that most urbangrowth is still to come. Moreover, prosperous andenvironmentally sound settlements are per se capable ofattracting people from other areas, thereby helping toalleviate problems in existing inadequate settlements.

Urbanization arguably constitutes an importantpotential ally for sustainability (Martine, 1995; 1999). Inorder for cities to actually generate these potentialadvantages, however, authorities must intervene in theuse of space. Policymakers must be proactive aboutlocation, concentration, and spatial utilization tocounteract the markets haphazard utilization of urbanspaces.

Intervening in urban land markets requiresprioritizing the land needs of the poor (WRI, 1997).Past failures in this area have generated serious economicand environmental costs for cities and countriesthroughout the world. A posteriori attempts to resolvethe problems caused by squatter settlements have muchhigher social, economic, and environmental costs. Thecurrent mechanisms that organize land marketslandspeculation and serendipitycannot be trusted toprovide social and environmental solutions. Shouldthey continue to prevail, the next disasters will haveprogressively more serious consequences than Mitch did.

New initiatives will require ingenuity. For instance,bilateral and multilateral donor agencies may consider

setting up land banks for poor urban migrants. Theseagencies could devise medium- and long-range land-use strategies and purchase tracts of land in non-hazardous or ecologically fragile areas that would beprogressively sold off at reasonable prices to poor urbanresidents and migrants as demand arises. The profitscould then be reinvested in further purchases ofadequate land tracts. If proven successful, this idea couldthen generate its own political momentum and bereplicated or taken on by responsible state or localagencies. Although this notion may appearrevolutionary, it would ultimately be much cheaperthan cleaning up increasingly serious disasters.

Within the theme of urban planning, policymakersgive insufficient attention to the issue of density.Compact cities, which concentrate population, housing,and jobs in a relatively reduced space, offer space andenergy efficiency. Such cities should, however, be locatedin areas that are less vulnerable to the effects of naturaldisasters: otherwise, concentration and density willactually result in greater calamities. Some verticalizationof growth (as opposed to the unsustainable American-style suburb) can be a boon. Planning for urban spacealso requires greater emphasis on public transportationrather than on the private automobile. The Los Angelespattern of dispersion is unsustainable but is spreadingin such places as Panama and even Managua. (Giventhe geological frailty of its land area, Managua shouldprobably not see any new construction.) The recentlyannounced partnership between Habitat and theQuercus Corporation to develop specialized data

yrtnuoC 6991 0302 tnemercnI

sarudnoH 285,2 003,7 817,4

augaraciN 656,2 952,6 306,3

aciRatsoC 347,1 300,4 062,2

alametauG 572,4 734,31 261,9

rodavlaSlE 726,2 620,6 993,3

ezileB 201 932 731

latoT 589,31 462,73 972,32

Table 4. Urban Population, Central America, 1996 and 2030

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collection, analysis, management, dissemination, anduse of knowledge on human settlements for use byurban observatories highlights how the private sectorcan be marshalled towards proper urban planning indisaster-prone areas (Habitat joins hands, 1999).

Do we have positive examples of cities that workin developing countries? The city of Curitiba in Brazilrepresents a positive anomaly in terms of urban spatial

planning. Its growth has been regulated along the linesof a master plan drawn up in the 1960s. Differentadministrators have maintained the continuity of theplan, while public participation in its implementationhas grown. The key ingredient of the original CuritibaMaster Plan was the integration of traffic managementand land use in order to limit concentration in thecentral city. The idea was to substitute the radialspokes of a wheel pattern of urban growth with alinear one capable of promoting the expansion ofcommerce, services, and residences away from thecenter on structural axes. Meanwhile, the historicalcenter of the city was restored, preserved, and madeavailable for pedestrians. Implementation of the planalso focused on physical, cultural, economic, and socialtransformation of the city. Explicit environmentalissues were not at the forefront of the original plan,

but have assumed increasing weight over time. Land-use legislation, supported by prior acquisition ofadjacent lands by the municipality, has encouragedhigh-density occupation around each axis. Theseplanned axes have also facilitated the implementationof an innovative public transport system. Specialarrangements have also been made in Curitiba forindustrial zoning and for the housing of poor migrants;the latter has, however, had limited success (Martine,1999).

b) Regional DevelopmentPlanning at the regional level should also be

directed toward favoring more sustainable spatialpatterns of economic activity and populationdistr ibution both within and between CentralAmerican countries. In this case, however, genericlessons and general recommendations are moredifficult to derive, since solutions depend on thespecificities of resource management and economicactivity in each country and region. Moreover, in thecontext of free trade, spatial planning here has to worktogether with the private sector and with othersegments of society in order to take advantage of eachcountrys comparative advantage. Ongoingglobalization makes this process even morecomplicated, since it can rapidly alter the nature ofcomparative advantages and make long-term planningdifficult.

The reconstruction process still underway inCentral America obviously must produce a morerobust economy than that which existed prior to Mitch.To succeed, the affected countr ies will have toundertake a series of measures whose scope transcendsthe boundaries of this article, including regionalintegration. The relatively diminutive scale of thecountries involved suggests the adoption of a commondevelopment and reconstruction strategy. Theaforementioned Stockholm meeting underlined theneed to carry out reconstruction and transformationefforts with a regional focus.10

The International Program Forum of theInternational Decade for Natural Disasters Reduction(IDNDR, held in July 1999 in Geneva) reached similarconclusions, stressing the importance of developingand strengthening regional approaches to disasterreduction (IDNDR, 1999).11 The mitigation ofvulnerability also requires adjustments to the marketmodel, both in the social and environmental domains.The market cannot assign value to many environmentalgoods and lacks the long-term vision required for

Source: http://www.freegk.com/worldatlas/honduras.php

Central America and Honduras

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investment in sustainability. Hence, it is the publicsectors duty to orient market mechanisms towardsthe sustainable use of space through such measures asinfrastructure building, zoning, and provision ofincentives. Some entity has to take the long-rangeapproach and try to visualize different scenarios ofspatial organization with the object of maximizingeconomic and environmental advantages of new orongoing investments.

The state should be capable of initiating andcoordinating the implementation of a sustainablevision of the future, with the instigation, direction,and control of civil society. Despite the fact thatglobalization and structural adjustment havequestioned the legitimacy of state interventions, thesustainable use of space requires the active presenceof the state. Its role is not only to preserveenvironmental legacies but also to provide anintegrated view of the relations between demographictrends, economic activities, and environmentaldimensions.

The need for proactive action, particularly fromthe state, does not mean a return to the technocraticarrogance of the 1960s and 70s. A sustainable futureand reduced vulnerability depends on the participationof a variety of social actors. Planning for urban orregional space provides rare opportunities for dialogueaimed at (a) adjusting ideal images and real images,and (b) ensuring that public interests prevail overprivate interests.

In this regard, community participation is key. Allinternational conferences and meetings (realized withinthe framework of the IDNDR) consider communityparticipation important in the prevention,preparedness, and recovery stages.12 For example, theYokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer Worldstates that:

Community involvement and ... active partici-pation should be encouraged in order to gaingreater insight into the individual and collectiveperception of development and risk, and to havea clear understanding of the cultural andorganizational characteristics of each society as wellas of its behaviour and interactions with thephysical and natural environment. This knowledgeis of the utmost importance to determine thosethings which favor and hinder prevention andmitigation or encourage or limit the preservationof the environment for the development of futuregenerations, and in order to find effective and

efficient means to reduce the impact of disasters(Guidelines, 1994).

c) Reproductive Health, Gender Equity, andVulnerability

Promoting improvements in reproductive healthas part of a national strategy can also help reducemedium- and long-range vulnerability to naturaldisasters and social inequality.13 Reproductive healthinformation, knowledge, and services must beprovided, especially to the poor. Disasters provideopportunities for international agencies to focus actionsand detect deficiencies in their reproductive-healthpolicies and approaches.

Efforts aimed at the reduction of vulnerability ofCentral American societies during the post-Mitchperiod would benefit in a variety of ways from a greaterinvestment in reproductive-health and gender-equityprograms. The Cairo and Beijing Summits produceda consensus (expressed in agreements that all CentralAmerican countries signed) that reproductive healthand family planning are basic human rights. Moreover,progress achieved in these areas has importantimplications for the formation of human capital andthus development.

The lack of family-planning and health servicesimpacts women most severely, as women frequentlybear full responsibility for all family-related decisionsand concerns, including the economic maintenanceof the household. During emergency situations and/or disasters such as Hurricane Mitch, such inequitiesbecome more acute.

For these reasons, countries urgently need to takemore effective action in the areas of reproductive healthand gender equity aimed at allowing both the urbanand rural poor to exercise their reproductivepreferences for lesser fertility. As noted earlier, reducedfertility will ease migratory pressure towards the urbancenters.

Reproductive health also contr ibutes to theimprovement of human resources and thus toenhanced competitiveness. At the aggregate level, thereare clear and empirically proven propositions thatreproductive health is likely to contribute to:

The health of women and children (or the reductionof maternal and child mortality) through improvedfamily planning and child spacing; this improvementin maternal and child health, in turn, generatessavings for society in terms of health services;

Planning and regulation of procreation also allows

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families to reduce their intra-family expendituresand make a greater investment in educationalactivities;

Competitiveness of a country is enhanced throughimproved education for the young and for women;

Reproductive health contributes to gender equityand to the empowerment of women, allowing themto become better educated and to participate more(and under better conditions) in the labor market;to decide freely on their reproductive lives; to havemore opportunities and alternatives in their lives;and to contribute to economic progress accordingto their real capabilities.

All these elements are important in terms ofimproving national and local capabilities to preventand mitigate the effects of natural disasters at the familyas well as at the national level. However, even if thepositive consequences of improved reproductive healthare clear, their significance may vary in different typesof societies. For example, in the Central Americancontext, the frequency of unstable marriages results

in a more complex relationship between reproductivehealth and development. Women head over one-fifthof all households in Latin America, and the majorityof female heads do not have a stable partner to supportthem. In Nicaragua, for example, 35 percent ofhouseholds are headed by women. The number ofcommon-law relationships is greater than formalmarriages (35 percent versus 26 percent), a fact whichgenerally translates into greater instability of unions.Dur ing times of cr isis and disasters, unstablehousehold compositions can create serious difficultiesfor families in terms of their ability to recover fromdisasters. Furthermore, in these situations, genderinequity becomes even more evident in unstableunions or female-headed households, placing evengreater demands on women.

d) Early Warning InformationDuring the pre-emergency phase, effective early

warning is the key issue for disaster preparedness(Guiding Principles, 1997). The knowledge obtainedthrough risk-assessment research makes it possible to

Source: http://www.usmission.hn/english/about_u.s/mapawdepartments.htm

Honduras: Departments

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identify the degree to which different populationgroups, mainly those living in poverty, could beaffected by natural hazards. Using this information,these groups can be informed in time and preventivemeasures can be taken.

Costa Rica, for instance, suffered $222 million indamages as a result of Mitch. Half of its 81municipalities were affected, yet only nine people werereported missing or dead. Years of preparation fornatural disasters and the existence of early warningsystems made the difference. Yet, it is agreed thatmuch more needs to be done in order to reducevulnerability in the country, especially with regards tothe location of human settlements (OPS/OMS, 1999,pp.70-72).

The population field makes an importantcontribution to the reduction of vulnerability throughthe development and updating of integratedinformation systems that can identify vulnerable areasor population groups. These systems can also helporient migrant settlement patterns in order to lowerr isks, achieve a more sustainable populationdistr ibution, and generate useful information forevaluating the effects of disaster-related damage,especially on women and children. GIS tools thatcombine a cartographic base with demographic andsocio-economic information are thus becomingessential. Unfortunately, despite the increasedtechnological development in this field, the case ofMitch shows that the Central America region needs amuch stronger effort in this respect. (The Appendixcontains a short list of information needs for theregions disaster-planning efforts.)

Mitch has also revealed the need to developmethods to collect, process, and present data relatedto disasters. Such methods could facilitate the analysisof a disasters impacts and help provide countries withadequate data resources, both during the emergencyitself and in the post-emergency phase. Informationconcerning the effects on people, families, and homesalso should be included. The topic of shelters is alsocurrently characterized by a great lack of coordinationand scientific rigor.

The Emergency PhaseAlthough Central American governments (with

the support of international agencies) have developedprograms to face natural disasters, these programs havegenerally operated only during the actual emergency.

Emergency programs are vital in helping to overcomethe damages caused by natural hazards. In the case ofa hurricane, such effects should disappear fairlyquickly, given the brevity of the period in which itaffects the population. However, factors related to acountrys underdevelopment (and to its policies aimedat overcoming disasters) can prolong these effects,particularly in the case of reproductive health.

Policymakers should define an a pr ior imethodology and approach to dealing withreproductive health needs in emergency situations.Plans might include:

a) Provision of emergency kits;b) Studies of conditions in sheltersparticularly

Cconcerning women and development of rapidRresponse in reaction to violence, sexual abuse, andNneed for services;

c) Support of NGOs and other community-basedinitiatives working with women in crisis situations.

The Post-Emergency PhasePost-emergency phase actions should concentrate

not only on reconstruction efforts but also onprevention. Following the difficulties caused and/oraggravated by the passage of Hurricane Mitch inCentral Amer ica, policymakers should addressreproductive health needs in two specific ways. First,policymakers should promote efforts to re-establishpre-existing programs as soon as possible, as well asto implement new programs whose initiation has beendelayed by the disaster. This component of post-emergency efforts is of the highest importance, giventhat reproductive health is generally not given prioritystatus during the crisis. It would entail working closelywith other national and international institutions forthe recovery of the health sector so that the componentsof reproductive health can be integrated and takeadvantage of the opportunity to renew practices andredirect actions where possible. Second, the frameworkof reproductive health actions has to be redefined toincorporate into new programs all available knowledgeon the relation between vulnerability, poverty, andreproductive health. In order to attain this goal, wemust strengthen the process of decentralization, sothat more egalitarian services directed to the needs ofthe population may be identified, discussed, andprovided (UNFPA-Nicaragua, 1999).

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4. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS

Hurricane Mitch highlighted the fact that socio-economic conditions in Central America magnify thethreat of natural hazards for hundreds of thousands ofpeopleespecially those living in the most precarioussocial and economic conditions. Solutions for reducingvulnerability and the impact of natural hazards on thepopulation are not simple, unilateral, or merelytechnological.14 Mitchs consequences constitute aninvitation to examine the very meaning of developmentefforts that are being carried out in this region. The

ongoing reconstruction process should not limit itselfto rebuilding countr ies with past methods.Policymakers have a unique opportunity to developregional, national, and local comprehensive strategiesaimed at disaster prevention and mitigation.

Specific contributions from the population fieldcould help mitigate the effects of natural disasters. Thetools of population sciences could help mitigatenatural-disaster impacts in three important ways: spatialorganization, reproductive health, and informationsystems. To be effective, these applications must beintegrated into a broader conception of both thedevelopment process and the struggle against poverty.

APPENDIX 1Studying the Impacts of Natural Disasters: Information Needs andProblems

In the course of this analysis, serious difficulties were encountered in trying to work with the availableinformation concerning Hurricane Mitchs impact. Some of the problems include:

Difficulties in evaluating the quality of the basic information on deaths and on affected populations.The information available in relation to number of deaths caused directly by Mitch and to the spatial

distribution of the population is so aggregated that it cannot be used for in-depth analysis. Detailed andreliable figures on fatalities as well as numbers affected by specific patterns of settlement and socioeconomiccondition are unavailable. Additionally, official statistics present anomalies that are difficult to reconcile. Ithas been mentioned that all data should be disaggregated by sex and analyzed by gender before, during,and after emergencies (Delaney & Shrader, 2000). More research and analytical work should be carriedout on the gendered dimensions of impact, loss, and recovery during disasters.

Lack of coordination in post-Mitch data collection activities.Various entities have carried out census and surveys on shelters, using different methodologies and on

different dates. There does not seem to be consensus regarding their reliability.

Scarce cartographic data prior to and after Mitch.With the exception of San Pedro Sula, which has geographically referenced information, researchers

lack cartographic information as well as data on the population itself. This shortcoming causes seriousdifficulties in defining the affected areas according to conditions of vulnerability. Even in San Pedro Sula,which has a strong municipal statistical office, extensive use has not been made of available data from thedemographic point of view.

Lack of a post-Mitch research strategy that would permit us to quantify the effects on demographicvariables.

There are no surveys on, for example, post-Mitch migration patterns or on changes in reproductivebehavior or the impact of mortality.

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NOTES1 In recognition of the disastrous impact of natural hazards onvulnerable communities, the United Nations General Assemblyin 1989 proclaimed the International Decade for NaturalDisaster Reduction. The IDNDRs objectives were to reduce(through concerted international action and appropriate useof science and technology) the loss of life and property damage(as well as the social and economic disruption) caused bynatural disasters.

2 Initial impact of a natural disaster may, in some cases, similarlyaffect all classes in determined circumstances. Even here,however, the capacity to recover is different due to unequalresources available to various socioeconomic groups.

3 Comparable patterns also prevail in the other countries ofthe region (UNFPA, 1998, pp. 22-23; Nicaragua, 1998, p. 108).

4 Whatever its limitations, ideal family size is still the onlyindicator generated by reproductive health surveys in Hondurasthat provides a fairly reliable measure of fertility preferencesand of their variations among social groups.

5 It appears that international efforts have done far less thanoriginally intended in terms of bolstering reconstructionefforts, especially in regional terms. Bilateral and multilateraldonors have focused on specific projects and specific countries,but the overall impact on the reduction of vulnerability andthe promotion of regional economic integration has come farshort of needs. An integrated evaluation of this entire processand its practical limitations would constitute an importantcontribution to the field.

6 As Delaney and Shrader (2000) have noted, Incidents offamilial and sexual violence seem to have decreased immediatelyafter the emergency and have steadily increased during thereconstruction phase. Several shelters have reported problemswith increased violence and many have hired security guardsto combat it. Some temporary shelters in rural areas have alsoreported an increase in sexual violence as well as coercedprostitution and promiscuity, particularly among adolescentgirls. Both men and women are victimized by increased ratesof sexual and physical violence in the rehabilitation phase, asaggression and violence lead to both physical and psychologicaltrauma for all family members.

7 In the case of Honduras, the country most affected byHurricane Mitch, the population housed in shelters reachedsome 600,000 during the days immediately following Mitch;three weeks later this figure decreased to 285,000, and byApril 1999 it was estimated at 20,000.

8 Some authors consider that male migration has increasedconsiderably due to Mitch. Delaney and Shrader (2000) notethat while no hard data exist about the extent of the change,most interviewees have noted a marked increase.

9 For additional information on the sustainable use of space,see Martine (2001).

10 Among the reasons that would justify a regional approach,the following can be cited: (a) extreme natural phenomenado not respect national boundaries; (b) there are economiesof scale in attending problems from a regional perspective; (c)regional initiatives favor coordination between countries onmitigation and prevention mechanisms; and (d) a regionalapproach helps draw attention to issues which are not clearlyperceived when viewed at the national level (SICA, 1999).

11 See also International Programme Forum (1999).

12 In the case of reconstruction and recovery activities, it hasbeen stressed that the rationale for community involvementor the community-based approach is now well known: it isresponsive to local needs, draws on local expertise, builds uplocal capacity, is multisectoral and equitable. By contrast, it issaid, top-down programmes tend not to reach those worstaffected by disaster, can be manipulated by political interests,are often inefficient, usually take a unisectoral approach anddo not respond to peoples real needs (Twigg & Greig, 1999).

13 In the case of Nicaragua, UNDP and UNFPA havedeveloped a project on Transition of Emergencies towardsRehabilitation and Development of the Northern ZoneMunicipalities affected by Hurricane Mitch. The UNFPAproject component incorporates reproductive-health servicekits and mobile units for the development of IEC and servicepromotion activities. During a second stage, UNFPA has givensupport to actions related to the human settlement component(UNFPA-Managua, 1999).

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThe authors wish to thank Ralph Hakkert, Jacques du Guerny,Alain Marcoux, Jorge Campos, Jaime Nadal and AntonietaSurawski for helpful comments. The opinions expressed hereinare the sole responsibility of the authors.

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14 Disaster prevention for the future...must involve issues andabilities of sustainable development, environmentalmanagement, science and technology, commerce and industry,and the encouragement of participatory forms of governance

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ECLAC. (1999a). Honduras: Evaluacin de los daos ocasionadospor el Huracn Mitch, 1998. Sus implicaciones para el desarrollo

econmico y social y el medio ambiente (Honduras: Evaluationof the damage caused by Hurr icane Mitch, 1998.Implications for economic and social development and forthe environment). LC/MEX/L.367. Mexico City: ECLAC.

ECLAC. (1999b). Nicaragua: Evaluacin de los daos ocasionadospor el Huracn Mitch, 1998. Sus implicaciones para el desarrolloeconmico y social y el medio ambiente (Nicaragua: Evaluationof the damage caused by Hurr icane Mitch, 1998.Implications for economic and social development and forthe environment). LC/MEX/L.372. Mexico City: ECLAC.

ECLAC. (1999c). Guatemala: Evaluacin de los daos ocasionadospor el Huracn Mitch, 1998. Sus implicaciones para el desarrolloeconmico y social y el medio ambiente (Guatemala: Evaluationof the damage caused by Hurr icane Mitch, 1998.Implications for economic and social development and forthe environment). LC/MEX/L.370. Mexico City: ECLAC.

ECLAC. (1999d). El Salvador: Evaluacin de los daos ocasionadospor el Huracn Mitch, 1998. Sus implicaciones para el desarrolloeconmico y social y el medio ambiente (El Salvador: Evaluationof the damage caused by Hurr icane Mitch, 1998.Implications for economic and social development and forthe environment). LC/MEX/L.371. Mexico City: ECLAC.

ECLAC. (1999e). Costa Rica: Evaluacin de los daos ocasionadospor el Huracn Mitch, 1998. Sus implicaciones para el desarrolloeconmico y social y el medio ambiente (Costa Rica. Evaluationof the damage caused by Hurr icane Mitch, 1998.Implications for economic and social development and forthe environment). LC/MEX/L.373. Mexico City: ECLAC.

ECLAC & Comisin Centroamericana de Medio Ambiente ydesarrollo (CCAD) (2002). El impacto socio-econmico yambiental de la sequa de 2001 en Centroamrica. Mxico: (Thesocio-economic and environmental impacts of the 2001drought in Central America). [On-line]. Available: http://w w w. e c l a c . c l / p u b l i c a c i o n e s / M e x i c o / 1 /LCMEXL510Rev1/l510-1.pdf

ENESF. (1996). Encuesta nacional de epiomiologia y salud familiar(National Survey of Epidemiology and Family Health).Tegucigalpa: Honduran Ministry of Health.

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that contributes to social well-being and security. It can reflectno single professional culture, alone, because the natural hazardsand risks to societies in the coming age will challenge, andcall upon, collective abilities (Final report, 1999).

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Final report of the scientific and technical committee of the InternationalDecade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). (1999). [On-line]. Available: http://www.unisdr.org/docs/stcrep.htm

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Habitat joins hands with Quercus Corp. (1999, May 4). [Online].Available:http://www.unchs.org/unchs/english/hdv5n2/news.htm

Hardoy, Jorge & Satterthwaite, David. (1989). Squatter citizen:Life in the urban third world. London: Earthscan Publications.

Hernndez, Gabriela. (1999, February). El huracn de lospobres...y de las oportunidades(The hurricane of thepoor...and the opportunities). Masica, 6-18.

Honduras, Secretaria de Planificacin & UNFPA. (1996).Honduras: Proyecciones de poblacin (Honduras:Population projections). Proyecto Poltica Social, Poblacin,Gnero y Empleo (HON/94/P02). Tegucigalpa: UNFPA.

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Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Center(CELADE). (1999). Latin America: Urban and rural populationprojections. Demographic Bulletin No. 63. Santiago, Chile:CELADE.

Lavell, Allan (Ed.). (1994). Living in risk: Vulnerable communitiesand disaster prevention in Latin America. Bogot: Tercer MundoEditores.

Martine, George. (1995). Poblacin y medio ambiente:Lecciones de la experiencia de Amrica Latina (Populationand environment: Lessons from the Latin Americanexperience). Notas de Poblacin 62, 261-310

Martine, George. (1999). The urban environment: Impendingcatastrophe or untapped opportunity? UNFPA CountrySupport Team, Working Paper No. 29. Mexico City: UNFPA.

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Nicaragua, Instituto Nacional de Estadsticas y Censos (INEC).(1998). Encuesta Nicaragense de demografia y salud(Demographic and health survey of Nicaragua). InstitutoNacional de Estadsticas y Censos INEC. Managua,Nicaragua: INEC.

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Feature Articles

Thouret, Jean-Claude & DErcole, Robert. (1996).Vulnrabilit aux risques naturels en milieu urbain: Effets,facteurs et rponses sociales (Vulnerability to natural risksin urban milieux: Effects, factors and social responses).Cahiers Sciences Humaines 32(2), 407-422.

Twigg, J. & Greig, B. (1999). The age of accountability:Community involvement in disaster reduction. Paper givenat UN-IDNDR and QUIPUNET Internet Conference,14-25 June 1999. Author.

United Nations (UN). (1997). World urbanization prospects. ST/ESA/SER.A/166. Sales E.97, XII.3. New York: UnitedNations.

United Nations Development Program (UNDP)Nicaragua.(1998). Valoracin de los efectos del Huracn Mitch ypropuestas para enfrentar la etapa de recon-struccin(Evaluation of the effects of Hurrican Mitchand proposals for the reconstruction phase). Authors.

United Nations Population Division. (1997). Urban and ruralAreas, 1996. New York: United Nations.

United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). (1998). Pobreza yinequidad de gnero: Salud y derechos sexuales y reproductivos enAmrica Latina y el Caribe (Poverty and gender inequity:Health and sexual and reproductive rights in Latin Americaand the Caribbean). VII Conferencia Regional sobre laIntegracin de la Mujer en el Desarrollo Econmico ySocial de Amrica Latina y el Caribe. Santiago, Chile:UNFPA.

UNFPA (Nicaragua Office). (1998). Contributions to theinteragency document to the Under-Secretary of theUnited Nations. Managua, Nicaragua: UNFPA.

UNFPA (Nicaragua Office). (1999). Informe efectos delHuracn Mitch: Acciones del UNFPA-Nicaragua(Report on the effects of Hurricane Mitch: Actions bythe UNFPA office in Nicaragua). Managua, Nicaragua:UNFPA.

World Resources Institute (WRI). (1997). World resources 1996-97: A guide to the global environmentThe urban environment.New York: Oxford.

ECSP TRADE AND ENVIRONMENT FORUM

Promoting world trade and protecting the global commons are frequently presented as mutual exclusivegoals. But this dichotomy often results in a stalemate between the business and environmentalcommunitiesa stalemate that inhibits progress both for future trade liberalization and for multilateralenvironmental solutions.

Headed by Wilson Center Senior Policy Scholar William Krist, ECSPs Trade and Environment Forum(TEF) addresses this critical global policy problem. Recognizing the legitimate claims of both internationaltrade law and environmental law, TEF identifies methods of harmonizing international trading rules withtodays rapidly evolving environmental concerns.

Visit the TEF Web site at http://wwics.si.edu/tef/index.htm to read TEF publications, find out aboutTEF Wilson Center meetings, and keep abreast of recent trade and environment developments.

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Documents

Martine e Guzman - 2002 - Population, Poverty, And Vulnerability Mitigating