CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE USES OF THE CLIMATE USES OF THE CLIMATE INFORMATION IN THE INFORMATION IN THE

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM OF AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM OF CENTRAL ARGENTINACENTRAL ARGENTINA

Marta G. VINOCUR, Marta G. VINOCUR, Andrea V. Andrea V. RIVAROLARIVAROLA and and Roberto A. Roberto A.

SEILERSEILERUUNIVERSITY OF RÍO CUARTO-NIVERSITY OF RÍO CUARTO-ArgentinaArgentina

Paper prepared for Open Meeting of Global Environmental Change Research

Community

6-8 October 2001

ArgentinaArgentina

Córdoba Córdoba ProvinceProvince

Study areaStudy area

OBJOBJEECTIVESCTIVES To understand how climate information is To understand how climate information is

actually used and may be used in the actually used and may be used in the future by policymakers and end users, to future by policymakers and end users, to improve decisiones in the agricultural improve decisiones in the agricultural sector and to mitigate the negative impact sector and to mitigate the negative impact of climate hazardsof climate hazards

To know stakeholders perception of To know stakeholders perception of climate risks and how they incorporate climate risks and how they incorporate climate information in their decision-climate information in their decision-making process, according to the political making process, according to the political context and to the underlying level of context and to the underlying level of farmers’ vulnerability farmers’ vulnerability

Materials and MethodsMaterials and Methods In each municipio (county), we conducted a rapid In each municipio (county), we conducted a rapid

appraisal to determine the range of variation in appraisal to determine the range of variation in farm type and size, access to resources, farm type and size, access to resources, infrastructure, etc through interviewing key infrastructure, etc through interviewing key informant and focus-group.informant and focus-group.

A random sample of farmers (approximately 10% A random sample of farmers (approximately 10% of the total number) was chosen for individual of the total number) was chosen for individual interviews (survey) reflecting the differences in interviews (survey) reflecting the differences in farm/households types.farm/households types.

Qualified groups, according to decision making Qualified groups, according to decision making levels (grain dealers, cooperative managers, local levels (grain dealers, cooperative managers, local utilities providers, regional farmers consortium utilities providers, regional farmers consortium managers, municipio authorities, etc.), were also managers, municipio authorities, etc.), were also interviewed.interviewed.

MMaterials and Methodsaterials and MethodsSurveySurvey

Socio-economic characteristics of each household/farm Socio-economic characteristics of each household/farm (farm size, farm type, tenure, technology applied, (farm size, farm type, tenure, technology applied, access to capital, off-farm income, education, etc.)access to capital, off-farm income, education, etc.)

Importance and sources of weather information; users’ Importance and sources of weather information; users’ knowledge of regional climate; users’ attitudes to knowledge of regional climate; users’ attitudes to climate and weather forecast; users’ perception of the climate and weather forecast; users’ perception of the value of climate forecast (credibility, ability to respond, value of climate forecast (credibility, ability to respond, etc.); users’ preferences about timing, format and etc.); users’ preferences about timing, format and content of a climate forecast. content of a climate forecast.

Surveys’ compilation and data analysis were done using Surveys’ compilation and data analysis were done using an statistical package (SPSS).an statistical package (SPSS).

Socio-economic characteristicsSocio-economic characteristics

Farmers’ ageFarmers’ age 30-45 years 30-45 years 29%29%

45-60 years 45%45-60 years 45%

> 60 years> 60 years 21%21%Education levelEducation level Primary Primary 51%51%

HighHigh 26%26%

Univer.Univer. 21%21%Farm sizeFarm size > 2000 ha> 2000 ha 4 % 4 %

500-2000 ha500-2000 ha42%42%

250-500 ha250-500 ha 33%33%

< 250 ha< 250 ha 21%21%

Socio-economic characteristicsSocio-economic characteristics Farm typeFarm type Mixed typeMixed type > agric.> agric. 35%35%

> livestock> livestock 25%25%

equalequal 30%30%soybean 88%;maize 96%; peanut 26%soybean 88%;maize 96%; peanut 26%

Land tenureLand tenure owner owner 93%93%

tenanttenant 3% 3% Rent more landRent more land 55%55%Request of creditRequest of credit 50%50%Applied technology Applied technology crop rotationcrop rotation 100%100%

no tillno till 46%46%

hybrid seeds+pesticide+herbicidehybrid seeds+pesticide+herbicide 95%95%

irrigationirrigation 3%; 3%; fertilizersfertilizers 59%59%

Type of climate information

received by the farmer

16.2%

18.1%

61.9%

3.8%None

Climate+Weather For.

Weather Forecast

Climate Forecast

Age

> 6045-6030-4515-30

Per

cent

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Information

None

Weather+Climate For.

Weather Forecast

Climate Forecast

Weather and Climate Information Related to Farmers Age

Weather and Climate Information Related to Farmers’ education level

Eduaction-head of the family

Univ. Comp.

Univ. Incomp.

High Comp.

High Incom.

Primary Comp.

Primary Incomp.

Pe

rce

nt

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Information

None

Weather+Climate For

Weather Forecast

Climate Forecast

Farmer's perception of ENSO impactson regional climate

Farmer's perception

Never heard about them

Not understand impact

Niño<rain-Niña>rain

Niño>rain-Niña<rain

Pe

rce

nt

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

17

11

67

Age

> 6045-6030-4515-30

Per

cent

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Farmers'perception

Never heard

Not understand

Niño<rain-Niña>rain

Niño >rain-Niña<rain

Farmer’s perception of ENSO impacts related to age

Perception of ENSO related to farmers’ education level

How much does climate information

influence farmer's management decisions

not at allsomewhatmoderatelystrongly

Perc

ent

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

9

20

58

13

Age

> 6045-6030-4515-30

Perc

ent

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Influence

Not at all

somewhat

Moderately

Strongly

Influence of climate information on farmers’ managemet decisiones related to farmers’age

Influence of climate information on farmers’ management decisiones related to farmers’education

level

Level of education-Head of the family

Univ. Com.

Univ. Incom.

High Com.

High Incom.

Primary Comp.

Primary Incom.

Pe

rce

nt

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Influence

Not at all

Somewhat

Moderately

Strongly

Weather and climate forecast: farmers' credibility

Improve cred.

None are credible

Weather-High cred.

Weather-Clim

ate Cred

Climate:No credible

Climate-less cred.

Climate-high cred.

Per

cent

40

30

20

10

0

9

14

33

89

27

Weather and climate forecast: obstacles to their use

5.8%

15.4%

3.8%

8.7%

1.9%

5.8%

58.7%

Lack of interest

Not credibles

Bad distr.channels

Very general

Tables/charts unclear

Difficult to understand

None

Farmers' management decisions are also

influenced by:

none

Exp. prices and prod

Exp.Nat.-Int. prices

Exp.National Prices

Per

cent

30

20

10

0

30

25

2323

Age

> 6045-6030-4515-30

Perc

ent

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Information

None

Prices + production

Nat.+Inter. prices

National prices

Other information used in management decisions related to farmers’age

Other information used in management decisions related to farmers’ education level

Level of education-head of the family

Univ. Comp.

Univ. Incomp

High Comp.

High Incomp.

Primary Comp.

Primary Incomp.

Pe

rce

nt

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Information

None

Prices + production

Nat. + int. prices

National prices

Which decisions would you probably Which decisions would you probably change in response to a climate change in response to a climate

forecast:forecast: crop mix (area planted)crop mix (area planted) 54%54% plant densityplant density 76%76% pesticide and fertlizer amountpesticide and fertlizer amount 55%55% planting dateplanting date 69%69% other typeother type 2% 2%

Characteristics of an useful climate forecastCharacteristics of an useful climate forecast TimingTiming ContentContent: spring rainfall; spring rainfall+summer temperat.: spring rainfall; spring rainfall+summer temperat. FormatFormat: means; means+actual data;comparison with past : means; means+actual data;comparison with past

years; above normal, near normal or below normal with years; above normal, near normal or below normal with the associated probabilities.the associated probabilities.Graphs only - 37%; tables only - 8%; tables and graphs - Graphs only - 37%; tables only - 8%; tables and graphs - 43%; explanations - 11%43%; explanations - 11%

Age

> 6045-6030-4515-30

Count

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Obstacles to inf.use

Lack of interes

Not credibles

Bad distr. channels

Very general

Tables/charts unclea

Diffic to understand

None

Weather and climate information, obstacles to their use related to farmers’ age

Weather and climate information, obstacles to their use related to farmers’ education level

Level of education-head of the family

Univ. comp.

Univ. incomp.

High comp.

High incomp.

Primary comp.

Primary incomp.

Pe

rce

nt

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Obstacles to inf.use

Lack of interest

Not credibles

Bad distr. channel

Very general

Tables/chart unclear

Diffic to understand

None

Type of climate information received

by qualified groups

None

Other type

Climate+Weather for.

Weather forecast

Pe

rce

nt

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

15

29

53

Utility of the received climate information

by qualified groups

Preventive actions

General use

Livestock market str

Grain dealers strat.

Personal

None

Pe

rce

nt

40

30

20

10

0

23

37

7

17

10

7

Dissemination of the climate information

by qualified groups

6.7%

33.3%

6.7%10.0%

43.3%

None

Internal use

General Public

Farmers

Other inst. and prevention agencies

How qualified groups disseminate

climate information?

27.8%

5.6%

55.6%

11.1%Massive comm.media

Fax

Meetings-conferences

Bulletins-booklets

Weather and Climate Forecast: Obstacles to their use

by qualified groups

5.9%

5.9%

17.6%

2.9%67.6%

Lack of credibility

Bad distrib. channel

Very general

Not clearNone

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

Users of climate and weather information required:Users of climate and weather information required: Forecast tailored to their needsForecast tailored to their needs Improve accuracy, timing and formatImprove accuracy, timing and format Downscale temporally and spatially to users’ Downscale temporally and spatially to users’

specific locationsspecific locationsTo promote climate forecast use, it is necessary:To promote climate forecast use, it is necessary: to improve users’ knowledge about regional to improve users’ knowledge about regional

weather and climateweather and climate to educate users about the differences between to educate users about the differences between

weather and climate forecasts.weather and climate forecasts. to analyze institutional ways of dissemination of to analyze institutional ways of dissemination of

climate informationclimate information to improve communication between researchers to improve communication between researchers

and end usersand end users