Market Wrap 100413 (MG).pdf

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MARKET WRAP: WEEK ENDED 4 October’13

Weekly Highlights: Regional Markets Closed Mixed Amid U.S. Government Shutdown

Stockmarket Commentary

The FBM KLCI generally moved in a trading range below 1,800 points in line with the sidewaysmovements of regional markets. Cautious buying of selected blue chips helped the FBM KLCI to close

the week almost unchanged at 1,776.6 points.

Average daily trading volume decreased to 2.0bilshares from 2.2bil shares over the preceding week while average daily turnover sustained at RM1.9bilover the same period.

Regional markets closed on a mixed note asinvestors stayed on the sidelines to monitor theimpact of the partial shutdown of the U.S.government’s operations. The Japan market

registered a weekly loss of 4.4% as the Yen firmedagainst the U.S. dollar on concerns the politicalstalemate will continue.

Wall Street: The Dow eased as the partial U.S.government shutdown dragged on for the third dayof October. Investors were also concerned that thenegotiations between the Democrats andRepublicans over the budget could escalate into adebt default if the debt ceiling of US$16.7 trillion isnot raised by 17th October. The Dow closed 1.2%

lower at 15,072.6 points for the week. The Nasdaqremained well-supported at 3,807.8 points with gainof 0.7% over the same period.

U.S. Economy: U.S. macroeconomic data wasgenerally positive. The manufacturing PurchasingManagers Index (PMI) increased to 56.2 inSeptember from 55.7 in August amid higher

production and employment. However, the servicesPMI slipped to 54.4 in September from 58.6 inAugust mainly due to slower growth in the labour

market.

The U.S. government began a partial shutdown after the two houses of Congress failed to agree on a new

budget for 2014.

After touching a 3-month low of US$102/brl on1st October, crude oil prices firmed to register aweekly gain of 0.9% at US$103.84/brl.

Regional Economy: China’s manufacturingPMI increased to 51.1 in September from 51.0in August mainly due to rising exports orders.

Malaysia Economy: Malaysia’s exports growth

rose to 12.4% in August from 4.5% in July amidhigher exports of electronic goods. Importsgrowth gained pace to 14.1% from 6.2% over the same period. As exports improved at a faster rate than imports, the monthly trade surplus roseto a 6-month high of RM7.1 billion in August

from RM2.8 billion in July

On a weekly basis, the Ringgit appreciated by2.5% to RM3.162 against the US$ for the week.On a year-to-date basis, the Ringgit depreciated

by 3.3% against the greenback.

Market Outlook & Valuations: Lookingahead, investors are expected to remain vigilantahead of the U.S. debt ceiling deadline of 17thOctober and the next Federal Open MarketCommittee meeting on 30th October.

As at 4th October 2013, the local stock market istrading at a prospective P/E of about 16.3x ascompared to its 10-year average P/E ratio of 16.5x. The local market’s dividend yield of

3.46% is above the 12-month fixed deposit rateof 3.15%.

After moving in a trading range in line with regional markets, the FBM KLCI closed almost unchangedat 1,776.6 points for the week.

Regional markets closed on a mixed note as investors stayed on the sidelines to monitor the impact of the partial shutdown of the U.S. government’s operations.

Looking ahead, investors are expected to remain vigilant ahead of the U.S. debt ceiling deadline of 17th

October and the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on 30th October.

For Internal Circulation Only



Regional Markets Valuations

Prospective

P/E

(x)

Estimated

Dividend

Yield (%)

Australia 15.00 4.55

China ‘H’ Shares 7.76 4.11

Hong Kong 11.00 3.53

Thailand 14.23 3.26

Taiwan 15.50 3.02

Singapore 14.61 3.27

Shanghai Comp 9.54 3.22

Philippines 18.32 2.18

Indonesia 15.13 2.10

Japan 14.48 1.85

South Korea 21.97 1.20Source: Bloomberg, 4 Oct’13

Market Performance and Valuations

Selected Markets Weekly Performances

4 Oct’13 27 Sept’13 % chng

FBM KLCI 1,776.6 1,776.2 +0.02

FBMS Shariah 12,431.0 12,402.8 +0.2

MSCI FEXJ#

522.0 519.9 +0.4

MSCI World 383.8 385.1 -0.3

Dow Jones 15,072.6 15,258.2 -1.2

Nasdaq 3,807.8 3,781.6 +0.7

TOPIX 1,163.8 1,217.5 -4.4

SH Comp 2,174.7^ 2,160.0 +0.7China*,H share 10,517.3 10,494.4 +0.2

MSCI China 6,313.1 6,296.8 +0.3

Hong Kong 23,138.5 23,207.0 -0.3

Taiwan 8,364.6 8,230.7 +1.6

South Korea 1,997.0 2,011.8 -0.7

Singapore 3,138.1 3,210.2 -2.2

Thailand 1,427.7 1,417.5 +0.7

Indonesia 4,389.3 4,423.7 -0.8* Hang Seng China Enterprises Index Âs of 30 Sept’13

# in USD

Bursa Securities Market Valuations^

4 Oct’13 27 Sept’13 10 yr av.*FBM KLCI 1776.56 1776.16 -

PER (x) 16.29 16.33 16.49

Price/NTA(x) 2.74 2.72 3.15

3mth InterBk 3.21% 3.21% 3.12%

12mth FD, % 3.15 3.15 -

*2004-2013 average

^PMB In-House Statistics

Malaysia’s Economic Snapshot

2011 2012 2013F

GDP growth, % 5.1 5.6 4.5 - 5.0

Inflation, % 3.2 1.6 2.0 - 2.2 F=forecast

Performance of Equity and Balanced Funds*

Local Funds4 Oct’13 27 Sept’13 % chng

PSF 0.5895 0.5908 -0.2

PGF 0.5026 0.5009 +0.3

PIX 0.7436 0.7424 +0.2

PIF 0.5556 0.5558 -0.04

PAGF 0.6578 0.6582 -0.1

PRSF 0.6801 0.6798 +0.04

PBF 0.6785 0.6762 +0.3

P SmallCap 0.8348 0.8355 -0.1

PEF 0.2984 0.2985 -0.03

PFSF 0.2957 0.2957 -PDSF 0.3105 0.3105 -

PSSF 0.3196 0.3196 -

PSA30F 0.3406 0.3409 -0.1

POGF 0.3144 0.3133 +0.4

PBBF 0.7865 0.7860 +0.1

PBGF 0.7757 0.7758 -0.01

PBGSQF 0.3025 0.3015 +0.3

PSSCF 0.2980 0.2978^ +0.1

PBMAC 0.2572 0.2571 +0.04

Local Islamic Funds


P Ittikal 0.9065 0.9086 -0.2

PIEF 0.3687 0.3688 -0.03

PIOF 0.3738 0.3735 +0.1

PIMXAF 0.2947 0.2943 +0.1PIDF 0.3933 0.3926 +0.2

PISSF 0.3221 0.3216 +0.2

PISTF 0.3480 0.3469 +0.3

PIOGF 0.3124 0.3117 +0.2

PISEF 0.4121 0.4117 +0.1

PIA40GF 0.2928 0.2928 -

PISVF 0.2915 0.2911 +0.1

PITGF 0.3225 0.3223 +0.1

PITSEQ 0.3036 0.3032 +0.1

PBIEF 0.2584 0.2581 +0.1

Foreign Funds


PFES 0.2406 0.2397 +0.4

PRSEC 0.2238 0.2250 -0.5

PGSF 0.2296 0.2344 -2.0PFEDF 0.2161 0.2187 -1.2

PFEBF 0.2260 0.2274 -0.6

PTAF 0.2204 0.2234 -1.3

PCSF 0.1718 0.1734 -0.9

PFEPRF 0.3064 0.3117 -1.7

PSEASF 0.2855 0.2885 -1.0

PFECTF 0.2813 0.2853 -1.4

PCTF 0.2256 0.2289 -1.4

PFETIF 0.3215 0.3200 +0.5

PNREF 0.2166 0.2206 -1.8

PAUEF 0.2792 0.2843 -1.8

PFA30F 0.2437 0.2483 -1.9

PINDOSF 0.2394 0.2416 -0.9

PBAEF 0.2381 0.2384 -0.1

PBADF 0.2916 0.2943 -0.9

PBEPEF 0.1950 0.1992 -2.1PBCPEF 0.1672 0.1694 -1.3

PBCAEF 0.2537 0.2533 +0.2

PBCAUEF 0.1995 0.2014 -0.9

PBSGA30EF 0.2738 0.2815 -2.7

PBAPENTF 0.2404 0.2431 -1.1

PBAREIF 0.2990 0.3023 -1.1

PBADBF 0.2971 0.3004 -1.1

PBINDOBF 0.2298 0.2311 -0.6

PSGEF 0.2693 0.2766^ -2.6

PBAEGF 0.2765 0.2805 -1.4

PBDYNAF 1.1044 1.1162 -1.1

Foreign Islamic Funds


PAIF 0.2754 0.2781 -1.0PIADF 0.2675 0.2699 -0.9

PIATAF 0.2458 0.2487 -1.2

PCIF 0.1918 0.1931 -0.7

PIALEF 0.2509 0.2528 -0.8

PBIAEF 0.2286 0.2306 -0.9

PBIASSF 0.1993 0.2013 -1.0

*Buying Price

Âdjusted for distributions



Bond Market Commentary

For the fortnight ended 4th October 2013,the U.S. Treasury market strengthened asdemand for safe haven assets increasedfollowing concerns that U.S. economicactivities may be affected by a prolonged

government shutdown. The 3, 5 and 10-year Treasury yields eased by 7 bps and 9 bps to0.62%, 1.41% and 2.64% respectively over the fortnight.

The Malaysian Government Securities(MGS) market closed mixed with the 3 and5-year MGS easing by 3 bps and 1 bps to3.27% and 3.42% respectively. However,the 10-year MGS rose by 1 bps to 3.68%over the same period.

The local corporate bond market remainedwell supported with the 3, 5 and 10-year AAA corporate bond yields decreasing by

between 1 bps and 5 bps to 3.86%, 4.09%and 4.52% respectively over the fortnight.

In the money market, the spread of the 3-month Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offer Rate(KLIBOR) over the 3-month U.S. Treasury

bill decreased to 318 bps from 319 bps over the fortnight as the 3-month U.S. Treasury

bill rose by 2 bps to 0.03% while the 3-month KLIBOR increased by 1 bps to3.21% over the same period.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Treasury bondmarket is expected to remain volatile over the medium term as investors focus on thenewsflow pertaining to the Fed’s tapering of

its bond buying programme.

BOND MARKET REVIEW: FORTNIGHT ENDED

4 October ’13

Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance


P BOND 0.9651 0.9633 +0.2

PI BOND 1.0688 1.0674 +0.1

PIN BOND 1.0022 1.0007^ +0.1

PEBF 1.0545 1.0546 -0.01

PSBF 1.0132 1.0114 +0.2

PIEBF 1.1154 1.1155 -0.01

PISBF 1.0162 1.0148 +0.1

PIINCOME 1.0336 1.0326 +0.1

PBFI 1.0393 1.0376 +0.2

PBIBF 1.1758 1.1744 +0.1

PBBMTN1 1.0248 1.0235 +0.1

PBINFBF 1.0535 1.0525 +0.1

PIINFBF 1.0612 1.0597 +0.1

PSTBF 1.0591 1.0577 +0.1

PISTBF 1.0573 1.0559 +0.1

PSKF 1.0215 1.0204 +0.1

PBBOND 1.0198 1.0181 +0.2

PBSKF 1.0200 1.0189 +0.1

PENTBF 1.0004 0.9991^ +0.1Âdjusted for distributions

Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance


PMMF 1.0106 1.0095 +0.1

PIMMF 1.0268 1.0257 +0.1

PBCMF 1.0179 1.0168 +0.1

PBCPF 1.0016 1.0005^ +0.1

PBICMF 1.0161 1.0150 +0.1

PBICPF 1.0016 1.0005^ +0.1Âdjusted for distributions

Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields

4 Oct’13 20 Sept’13 Chng*

3 Month Interest Rates

KLIBOR 3.21 3.20 +1.0

U.S. T Bill 0.03 0.01 +2.0

3 Year

'AAA'Corp. 3.86 3.91 -5.0

MGS 3.27 3.30 -3.0

U.S. T Note 0.62 0.69 -7.0

5 Year

AAA'Corp. 4.09 4.12 -3.0

MGS 3.42 3.43 -1.0

U.S. T Note 1.41 1.48 -7.0

10 Year

'AAA'Corp. 4.52 4.53 -1.0

MGS 3.68 3.67 +1.0U.S. T Bond 2.64 2.73 -9.0

*in basis points

2

4

6

Jan-03 Oct-03 Jul-04 Apr-05 Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Jul-13

MGS Yield

3 Years MGS

10 Years MGS



4

You are advised to read and understand the contents of the Master Prospectus of Public Series of Funds dated

30th April 2013 and expires on 29th April 2014, Master Prospectus of Public Series of Shariah-Based Funds

dated 30th April 2013 and expires on 29th April 2014, Master Prospectus of PB Series of Funds dated 30th

April 2013 and expires on 29th April 2014, Information Memorandum of PB Cash Plus Fund and PB Islamic

Cash Plus Fund dated 29th March 2013 and Information Memorandum of PBB MTN Fund 1 dated 10th

November 2009 and expires on 24th December 2009. These prospectuses have been registered with the

Securities Commission who takes no responsibility for their contents, and neither should their registration be

interpreted to mean that the Commission recommends the investment.

You should note that there are fees and charges involved; and that the prices of units and distribution payable,

if any, may go down as well as up. Applications to purchase must come in the form of a duly completed application form referred to in and accompanying the prospectus. A copy of the prospectus can be obtained from your attending agent, corporate representative or nearest Public Mutual Office.

Past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance.

Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) Block B, Sri Damansara Business Park, Persiaran Industri, Bandar Sri Damansara, 52200 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. P.O. Box 10045, 50700 Kuala Lumpur Tel: 03-62796800 Fax: 603-62779800 Website:http://www.publicmutual.com.my

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Market Wrap 100413 (MG).pdf