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Prepared for:
2016 Annual MeetingInternational Paint and Printing Ink Council
&19th Asian Paint Industry Council Meeting
Tokyo, Japan
Presented by:
Andy DoyleInternational Paint and Printing Ink Council
Washington DC
March 3, 2016
Market Update: State of the Global Coatings Industry
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March 1 – 4, 2016
2016 IPPIC Annual MeetingAPIC 19th Council Meeting
Tokyo, Japan
Thank you to our Host
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IPPIC
Our organization continues to grow in both size and international recognition!
Market Update: IPPIC’s Global Market Analysis Report
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Global Coatings Market Analysis1st Edition: (2007 – 2012)2nd Edition: (2009 – 2014)3rd Edition: (2011 – 2016)
Today’s presentation is an update of the 4th edition of the IPPIC Global Market Analysis report published in December 2014.
4th Edition: (2013 – 2018)
R$
Note: Market Estimates in this PresentationAre Shown in U.S. Dollars (USD)
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€
₨
¥
£₱C$
CNY
1. Decorative Coatings- Painting Contractors- Do-It-Yourself (DIY)
2. Auto OEM Coatings- Passenger Cars- Light Trucks- SUVs
3. Transportation Coatings- Heavy Duty Truck, Bus & RV- Aerospace- Other Land Transportation
4. Wood Finishes- Wood Furniture, Cabinets, etc.- Flat Stock
5. Powder Coatings- Thermosets- Thermoplastics
6. Coil Coatings- Coil - Sheet and Strip- Extrusion
7. Packaging Finishes- Metal Container & Closures- Paper, Paperboard, Film & Foil
8. General Industrial Finishes- Non-Wood Furniture & Fixtures- Heavy Machinery & Equipment- Home Appliances- Other Industrial Products
9. Automotive Refinish- Passenger Vehicles- Light trucks
10. Industrial Maintenance & Protective Coatings- Oil & Gas- Infrastructure
11. Marine Coatings- Commercial, Military, etc.
Three Coatings Classifications11 Coatings Segments Investigated
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Five Geographic Regions Studied
North America
Latin America
Middle East& Africa(MEA)
Europe
Asia Pacific
Flags represent the locations of IPPIC Members
Presentation Agenda
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1. Overview - Global Coatings Industry
2. Economic Trends & Driving Forces
3. Global Coatings Industry Forecast
4. Final Thoughts
Global Coatings Industry – 2015Volume vs. Value (Decorative vs. Industrial)
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41 Billion Liters $144 Billion (USD)
55% 57%
45% 43%
41 B.Liters
$144 Billion
Source: Orr & Boss, Inc
Global Coatings Industry -- 2015End Use Segments: Volume vs. Value
2015 Volume by End Use Segment41 Billion Liters
2015 Value by End Use Segment$144 Billion USD
Source: Orr & Boss, Inc
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Segment ASPAutomotive Refinish $10.71 / liter
Decorative $2.78 / liter
ASP = Average Selling Price
IM &Protective
5%
Packaging3%
2015 Global Coatings IndustryVolume by Region
41 Billion Liters
Global Coatings Industry Geographic Segment: Volume vs. Value
2015 Global Coatings IndustryValue by Region$144 Billion USD
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Source: Orr & Boss, Inc
Region ASPNorth America $4.57 / literEurope $4.34 / literLatin America $3.24 / literAsia Pacific $3.10 / literMEA $3.01 / liter
ASP = Average Selling Price
20.8 Billion Liters $64.4 Billion (USD)
ASP
Sale Price Product Mix
Global Coatings -- Volume GrowthFrom 2008 to 2015
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200829 Billion Liters
201541 Billion Liters4.9% CAGR
Source: Orr & Boss, Inc
76% Growth
1% Growth
Coatings Industry Growth – 2008 to 2015
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Growth – differences by geographic region.
Asia – Very strong growth.
Latin America – Fairly good growth.
Middle East – Moderate growth.
North America – Little growth.
Europe – Flat growth.
Geographic Shifts - VolumeFrom 2008 to 2015
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Changes in Market Share by Geographic Region
200829 Billion Liters
201541 Billion Liters
4.9% CAGR
Source: Orr & Boss, Inc
Presentation Agenda
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1. Overview - Global Coatings Industry
2. Economic Trends & Driving Forces
3. Global Coatings Industry Forecast
4. Final Thoughts
Examples: Coatings Market Drivers
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A-C-E Equipment
GDP Growth
CivilConstruction
ResidentialConstruction
Oil / GasProduction
Beverage Packaging
GlobalShipping
VehicleProduction
VehicleAccidents
Distribution of Auto OEM Paint ConsumedDistribution of Vehicle Production86 Million Units
Example 1: Vehicles Built vs. Auto OEM Paint Produced (2014)
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Source: OICA Automotive Statistics Source: Orr & Boss, Inc
Example 2: Regional Distribution of Marine Coatings
Source: Orr & Boss, Inc.
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2014
Example 3: Marine Coatings (2014)New Builds of Ships vs. Repairs
CoatingsNew Builds vs. Maintenance & Repair
(Volume)New Builds: Countries within Asia
(Vessels Produced)
Source: Orr & Boss, Inc. Sources: IHS World Fleet Statistics; Int’l Council of Marine Industry
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Per Capita Coatings Consumption
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North America clearly has the highest per capital coatings demand.
However … good opportunities exist for coatings growth in developing regions as the middle class continues to expand.
Presentation Agenda
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1. Overview - Global Coatings Industry
2. Economic Trends & Driving Forces
3. Global Coatings Industry Forecast
4. Final Thoughts
Global Coatings Industry (2008 to 2018)Volume Growth by Region
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201337 Billion Liters
2018f46 Billion Liters
Coatings Volume CAGR 2013 to 2018f
Region Decorative Industrial TotalAsia Pacific 5.2% 6.7% 6.0%Latin America 4.5% 4.0% 4.4%MEA 3.4% 4.1% 3.6%North America 2.5% 1.1% 1.9%Europe 1.6% 2.3% 1.9%World 3.8% 5.1% 4.4%
200829 Billion Liters
LatinAmerica
9%
Source: Orr & Boss
Coatings Volume CAGR 2008 to 2013
Region Decorative Industrial TotalAsia Pacific 10.8% 9.1% 9.8%Latin America 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%MEA 2.9% 2.0% 2.6%North America 0.9% 0.4% 0.7%Europe -0.2% -0.7% -0.4%World 4.6% 5.1% 4.8%
Global Coatings Industry (2008 to 2018)Volume and Value Growth
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2013 2018f2008
Source: Orr & Boss
$100 Billion (USD)
29 Billion Liters
$130 Billion (USD)
37 Billion Liters
$167 Billion (USD)
46 Billion Liters
Presentation Agenda
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1. Overview - Global Coatings Industry
2. Economic Trends & Driving Forces
3. Global Coatings Industry Forecast
4. Final Thoughts
Forecasts for the Global EconomyHow the Economy Can Impact Future Coatings Growth
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Global Economy IMF’s Forecast Revision: Last year’s global growth forecast -- revised downward for 2016 & 2017. Global Economy: Forecasted to have 3.4 % growth in 2016 & 3.6% growth n 2017. High Income Countries: Continued slow recovery. Modest and uneven growth Developing Countries: Mixed picture -- but economic challenges continue for many countries.
Asia Pacific China: Slowing growth – forecasted to have 6.3% growth in 2016 and 6.0% growth in 2017. China: Rebalancing of economic activity -- weaker investment and slower manufacturing activity. Japan: 1% or less GDP growth forecasted for the next two years. India: Forecasted to have the highest GDP growth in the region – could reach 8% GDP annual growth. Southeast Asia: Low oil prices, structural reforms, infrastructure investment – a positive for most.
Europe Most of Western Europe: The 1.5% GDP growth in 2015 is likely to continue over next few years. Positives: Weakening euro exchange rate & low oil prices – proving to be positives for most countries. Challenges / Risks Remain: Russia recession; economies of Greece & Iberian peninsula; refugees. Emerging Europe: Projected to continue growing at a broadly steady pace.
Forecasts for the Global EconomyHow the Economy Can Impact Future Coatings Growth
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North America USA: Energy boom, low energy costs & strong U.S. dollar – seem to be driving economic growth. USA: But … exports are moderating due to strong dollar and sagging foreign demand. Canada: Forecasted 2% growth may be cut back due to lower prices for oil and exported commodities.
Latin America & Caribbean Latin America: Continued struggles. Aggregate GDP growth deceleration will likely continue. Brazil: Good long-term potential – but struggling with low oil prices, inflation & economic recession. Mexico: GDP forecasted to have 2.7% to 3.2 % annual growth over next few years. Mexico: But struggling with weak external demand, low oil prices & government spending cuts.
Middle East & Africa Middle East: Developments in the region dominated by falling oil prices & rising geopolitical tensions. Middle East: 2016 GDP growth forecast cut back again to 2.8% -- due to these challenges. Africa: Longer term -- may turn out to be the next China in term of growth & market size potential.
IPPIC’s Global Market Analysis
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Contact: Steve Sides, American Coatings Association
Washington DC(202) 462-6272
[2015 – 2020]Global Market AnalysisFOR THE PAINT & COATINGS INDUSTRY
INTERNATIONAL PAINT & PRINTING INK COUNCIL
Preparing for the 5th edition of the Global Market Analysis
to be published December, 2016.
Prepared for:
2016 Annual MeetingInternational Paint and Printing Ink Council
&19th Asian Paint Industry Council Meeting
Tokyo, Japan
Presented by:
Andy DoyleInternational Paint and Printing Ink Council
Washington DC
March 3, 2016
Market Update: State of the Global Coatings Industry