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[Market Preview 13/07] FORECAST AND TRADING STRATEGIES
PANIC SELLING ACTIVITIES OPEN THE OPPORTUNITY TO FIND THE BOTTOM
IN STOCKS THOSE BENEFIT FROM Q2 EARNING SEASON AND HAVE GREAT
PROSPECTS IN 2021.
The markets that opened at the beginning of the week
continued to be sold out quite strongly, amid concerns about this outbreak in the southern regions, but especially in Ho
Chi Minh City. Today, Hanoi also had an emergency dispatch to suspend all non-essential services from 0:00 on July 13. All of this raises concerns that this outbreak will negatively affect the overall growth outlook of the economy and stock market.
In this session, most stocks were sold out at the beginning
of the session, before closing at a loss of 3.77% with VNINDEX, bringing this market index below 1,300 points. The liquidity improved compared to the previous session and was also higher than the average level of the last 20
trading sessions. The transaction value reached over 31.6 trillion (on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange), this is the highest value since April.
Foreign investors were very active in buying this session with a net buying of nearly 1400 billion dong. They actively bought STB, SSI, HPG, KDH, DXG, FUEVFVND (Dragon Capital ETF).
In general, since the beginning of July, the VNINDEX market
index has decreased by nearly 8.5%. Groups of Real Estate, Banking, Securities, Oil and Gas stocks also had a decrease of 15-35%. We find that the prices of many stocks have
gradually become more attractive for bottom-fishing activities in the short term.
New short-term buying activities can be found in stocks benefiting from this Q2/2021 earnings season such as: Bank group (MBB, TPB, TCB), securities group (SSI, HCM, VND and VCI) or in stocks that
have fallen from 10 to 13%. Take profit when these businesses announce Q2 business results or/and at green rebounds with profitable portfolios.
MARKET TREND SUMMARY RECOMMENDATION STATUS
Short-term: Bearish (Under a month) Medium-term: Bullish (1 – 6 months) Long-term: Bullish (6 months beyond)
- Banks’ prices are still in overbought state in terms of value. There is a need for further correction for the price to be attractive again. However, in the short term, there are still many speculation opportunities in: TCB, STB, ACB, SHB, TPB...
- VHM (BUY, target price: 130); PDR (Stop New Buy); HDC (Stop New Buy); KBC (BUY, target price: 55); NLG (BUY, target price: 45); NTL (BUY, target price: 40) are stocks in the Real Estate industry that we are interested and preferred for the next investment period.
- Securities stocks: There is a prospect of price increase when benefiting from the Earning season in Q2/2021; order congestion will be completely resolved at the beginning of July; margin volume remained at record levels. However only suitable for short-term speculative activities with SSI, HCM, VND.
VnIndexHNX
Index
Upcom
Index
Last 1296,3 293,07 83,89
Change (%)-50,84
(-3,77%)
-13,66
(-4,45%)
-3,19
(-3,66%)
%↗ 1 week -3,77% -4,45% -3,66%
Market value
Today (bil.) 31.615,62 4.094,25 1.471,83
Foreign investor
Buy (bil.) 3.293,39 64,67 26,44
Sell (bil.) 1.895,22 39,32 26,8
Net (bil.) 1.398,17 25,35 -0,36
Market Summ.
Advances 36 30 67
Declines 374 213 254
Unchanged 12 27 34
Futures LastOpen
Interest
Volume
(bil. VND)
VN30F1M 1443,9 34.058 57.630,46
VN30F2M 1444 683 570,56
VN30F1Q 1443,3 259 43,02
VN30F2Q 1442,5 205 33,06
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TCB will still increase further to surpass 60 and possibly touch 65 when price impulse signals and liquidity are still improving. In the short term, it is possible to buy around the 54-55 price range and not to chase in strong gaining sessions.
TPB - Our preferred short-term buying price range is from 32 to 35, with target price: over 40. MBB
can buy tentatively at the price range 27 - 28.5 with the target price retracing to the short-term zone of 30.
SSI – Short-term exploratory buying price range 44 – 44.5, target price: above 60. VCI – short-term
exploratory buying 44.5, target price exceeding 52. HCM – short-term buying at 41, target price exceeding 50 are the stocks in securities group interest to us in the short term.
Previously purchased short-term investments (trapped at high prices) have no cost advantage. It is prudent to consider closing the position, selling does not need to be too hasty in the coming rebounds, to prevent the prospect that the volatility and market breadth will be large in the coming sessions of July.
Uptrend channel Level 1 in the medium and long-term has not been broken (important support levels are 1260 points and 1245 points with VNINDEX), the general trend of the whole market is still preserved.
(Source: HOSE,FireAnt)
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Futures Market:
(Source: Vietstock)
After the strongest drop of last week in recent months, investors were somewhat more cautious in
making new buying decisions on the first session of the week. At the beginning of the session, sellers were overwhelming, VN30 was in the red with 20 losers and only 4 gainers. During the morning session, stocks in the VN30 group continued to drop sharply. At the end of the morning session, VN30
was completely in red with all 30 stocks falling, even many stocks fell to the floor. As a result, derivatives contracts also dropped to 80-90 points in the morning session. In the afternoon session, the selling momentum continued, causing VN30 and derivatives contracts to continue to fall deeply. After retesting the intraday low, F1M contract appeared to have recovered slightly. At the end of the session, the F1M contract ended at 1443.9, down 53.10 points compared to the reference.
The liquidity of F1M continued to increase strongly today with more than 398,540 contracts matched
in the session, much higher than the average liquidity of the previous 20 sessions. Foreign investors continued to be net sellers today with a value of more than 139.27 billion dong in this session.
The F1M contract has now shown certain signs of recovery after forming a double bottom at the 1405-1410 support area and breaking through the intraday downtrend line. However, F1M is also forming a triple top pattern at the 1450 resistance area. Therefore, the current recovering trend is still uncertain.
VN30F1M intraday. Source: FireAnt
Trading strategy:
In the short term, the trend of the F1M contract is not yet clearly defined and will likely continue to fluctuate in the 1410-1450 zone. We advise investors at this time to observe, and only open a new long position with a small number of contracts when F1M crosses the 1450 zone.
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Watchlist
Ticker Sector
Foreign
Investor
Room
Market
Cap (bil.)
Current
Price
Target
Price
Est Profit
Target
(%)
Forward
dividend
yield
Forecast &
Recomm.P/E P/B
P/E 2021
(forward)
ASM Aquaculture 47,8% 2.951 11,4 20 75% 4,4% BUY 7,84 0,63 4,9
CNG Natural Gas Distribution 44,0% 656 24,3 29 19% 6,2% Positive 12,48 1,31 10,9
CTGDepository Credit
Intermediation4,9% 130.319 35 56 60% 0,0% BUY 11,28 2,19 8,7
DCMChemical -
Pharmaceutical46,8% 8.470 16 18 13% 6,3% Positive 14,50 1,65 12,1
FPT Software Publishers 0,0% 78.133 86,1 80 -7% 2,3% Negative 17,96 3,56 20,0
GAS Natural Gas Distribution 46,9% 168.428 88 101 15% 4,5% Positive 24,39 3,58 14,0
GMDSupport Activities for
Water Transportation7,9% 11.693 38,8 50 29% 3,9% BUY 29,22 1,99 19,5
HPGPrimary Metal
Manufacturing22,6% 201.061 44,95 60 33% 1,1% BUY 9,25 2,54 7,2
MSN Manufacturing 67,1% 141.546 119,9 98 -18% 0,8% Negative 83,20 11,82 47,2
MWGElectronics and
Appliance Stores0,0% 83.961 176,6 160 -9% 0,8% Negative 16,28 3,97 19,1
NT2Electric Power
Generation34,2% 5.441 18,9 19 1% 7,9% Positive 10,72 1,47 10,9
PLXMerchant Wholesalers,
Nondurable Goods2,8% 64.241 49,65 65 31% 6,0% BUY 19,76 2,87 12,8
POWElectric Power
Generation46,0% 23.770 10,15 12 18% 4,9% Positive 12,65 0,91 11,3
REEBuilding Equipment
Contractors0,0% 16.163 52,3 58 11% 0,0% Positive 9,82 1,40 8,5
TCBDepository Credit
Intermediation100,0% 187.512 53,5 57 7% 0,0% Positive 12,58 2,29 12,5
TCHReal Estate
Development37,2% 7.485 18,75 24 28% 5,3% BUY 9,14 0,94 9,4
TDMWater Supply and
Irrigation Systems43,7% 2.700 27 35 30% 4,4% BUY 10,65 1,63 10,8
VEA Manufacturing 43,3% 57.670 43,4 45 4% 10,4% Positive 11,34 2,58 8,2
VHM*Real Estate
Development26,2% 361.747 108 145 34% 0,9% BUY 14,01 3,92 12,1
VIC Manufacturing 22,6% 351.773 104 114 10% 0,0% Positive 58,35 3,37 70,4
VJC Air Transportation 11,8% 64.993 120 80 -33% 0,0% SELL 51,20 4,14 649,9
VND Securities/ Finance 30,5% 16.217 37,8 43 15% 2,6% Positive 16,12 2,05 12,5
VNM Food Manufacturing 45,2% 180.363 86,3 80 -7% 4,6% Negative 17,03 5,66 16,4
VNR Insurance Carriers 21,1% 3.185 24,3 35 44% 4,9% BUY 9,45 1,16 9,1 Source: AIS’s Research, Corporate Auditing Financial Statements, FireAnt, Bloomberg, FiinPro
FORECAST & RECOMMENDATION: - We recommend BUY when the expected return is above 20%;
- We rate the stock's price outlook as POSITIVE when the expected return is from 0% - 20%;
- We rate the stock's price outlook as NEGATIVE when the expected return is from 0% to -20%;
- We recommend SELL when the expected return is below -20%;
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Disclaimer This report is developed and issued by AIS Securities Joint Stock Company. All information, statements and projections
and opinions contained in this report are based on data sources that were reliable at the time of the study. AIS Securities
Joint Stock Company does not warrant that these sources of information are absolutely accurate and is not responsible
for the accuracy of the information mentioned in this report, nor is it responsible for damages to the use of all or part of
the contents of this report. The opinions, estimates and forecasts mentioned in this report represent the views of the
author only at the time of issue, these views do not represent the general views of AIS Securities Joint Stock Company
and may be change without prior notice. This report is prepared for the purpose of providing information only to individuals
and investment organizations of AIS Securities Joint Stock Company, and is not used as a basis for making a decision to
buy, sell or hold securities. securities. Investors should only use the information, analysis and comments of the report as
a reference source before making their own decisions. All decisions of investors should be based on independent advice
and in accordance with their particular financial situation and investment strategy. This report is owned by AIS Securities
Joint Stock Company and may not be reproduced, modified or released in any form without the written consent of
Securities Joint Stock Company. AIS. Please cite the source if using the information in this report.
Contact us
AIS Securities Joint stock Company
www.aisec.com.vn
Headquarters
10th Floor, Horison Tower Building, No. 40 Cat Linh,
Dong Da District, Hanoi City
Tel: 1900 633 308
Fax: (024) 3212 1615
AIS Research Center
Phung Trung Kien - CFA, Manager
Nguyen Nhat Huy, Analyst
Pham Quang Minh, Analyst
