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www.lyondellbasell.com Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends Dieter Littmann, Sr. Technology Mgr., Licensing, Basell Polyolefine GmbH Burckhardt Compression 6 th LDPE Conference Xian, June 20 - 22 1

Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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Page 1: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

www.lyondellbasell.com

Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology TrendsDieter Littmann, Sr. Technology Mgr., Licensing, Basell Polyolefine GmbHBurckhardt Compression 6th LDPE Conference

Xian, June 20 - 22

1

Page 2: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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LYB Introduction Market Environment/GDP and Polyolefin Consumption per Capita Global LDPE Market Development Criteria for Competitive LDPE Investments

Manufacturing Cost Analysis Product Differentiation

Specific LDPE growth areas by application Specific Lupotech T Innovations Conclusion

Agenda

2

Page 3: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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5-Year Total Shareholder Return vs. Peers(1)

World-Class Scale With Leading Positions

Who We Are

3

■ $44 billion market capitalization

■ Global independent chemical company, incorporated under Dutch law

■ Executive offices in London, Rotterdam, and Houston

■ Products sold in ~100 countries

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Westlake Methanex DowChemical

Huntsman Eastman BASF DuPont Celanese Olin Corp SABIC CFIndustries

Global Market Positions (2)

MTBE and ETBE

Polyolefins Licensing

Polyolefins (PE and PP)

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Polypropylene Compounds

Ethylene

Propylene

Propylene Oxide

Chemicals

Polymers

Oxyfuels

Technology and R&D

#5

#6

#2

#3

#2

#6

#1

#1

#1

(1) Total shareholder return over period from Jan 1, 2012 to Dec. 31, 2016. Source: Factset.(2) Source: IHS MARKIT, LYB. Reflects market positions of chemical-grade and polymer-grade propylene (not refinery-grade).

Page 4: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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LyondellBasell licensing offering

4

LupotechLDPE/EVA processes

SpherileneLL/HDPE process

HostalenMultimodal HDPE process

Olefins Recoveryand Conversion

Trans4m for Butadiene, Butenes, Isoprene, DCPD

Aromatics ExtractionFrom Coke Oven / Pygas

Benzene, Toluene, Xylenes

AcetylsGlacido acetic acid process,

Vacido vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) process

Oxiranes & DerivativesPropylene oxide, Styrene, Butenes,

MTBE/ETBE, Butanediol

Chemicals Technologies

CrackingRefining

Feedstock

SpheripolBenchmark PP process

SpherizoneDifferentiated PP process

Polyolefins Technologies

A comprehensive portfolio of technologies for license

Page 5: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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Global trends create a growing demand for Polymer based products

■ By 2030 global population will rise by more than 1 billion to 8.3 billion

■ The world’s growing middle class will drive a 32% increase in vehicle sales by 2030

■ Plastics consumption is expected to double over the next 20 years

■ 85% urban population growth by 2050

■ 78 trillion in global infrastructure investment required over the next 10 years to accommodate growth

■ Global growth will increase demand for food, water and energy by 35, 40, and 50 percent respectively by 2030

Growing Population Growing Urbanization

Growing Demand for Resources/Improved Sustainability

Growing Middle Class

Sources: PwC Global Megatrends Report, 2017U.N. Department of Economic & Social Affairs (World Population Ageing: 1950-2050)U.N. World Water Development Report, 2017

5

Page 6: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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World Market TrendGrowth of middle class is driving Polyolefins growth

Source: McKinsey analysis based on 2014 HIS MARKIT Global Insight & Tecnon OrbiChem 1: Plastics: incl. PE, PET, PS,PVC

▪ Developing countries have typical higher growth rates for Polyolefines consumption▪ Inline with stronger GDP growth and larger growth potential per capita

6

Growth driven by increase in per capita consumption

Significant investment required to match demand growth, mainly in Asia

Page 7: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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Global Macro TrendsDemographics Driving Demand

7

50

100

150

200

250

lbs., billions

PE PP

Source: IHS MARKIT

Global Ethylene Cost Curves

’90 – ’16 PE: 4.4%PP: 6.6%

20

40

60

80

0 10 20 30 40 $50GDP per capita, USD thousands

Consumption, lb/personN. America

W. EuropeNortheast

AsiaSoutheast

Asia

Indian Subcontinent

PE

PP

0

100

200

300

400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

China India Western Europe U.S.

Households, millions

■ Upper/Middle Class Households

■ 2016 Polyolefins Consumption

■ World PE and PP Demand

Page 8: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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Market Environment

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

1'000

2'000

3'000

4'000

5'000

6'000

7'000

8'000

9'000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

PE PP PP 'Kg/person PE 'kg/person

■ Growth rate for Polyolefins is about 4-5% p.a

■ Long term Growth of PE and PP

8

Ann

ual G

row

th in

Tho

usan

d To

ns

Annual C

onsumption per C

apita in kg

Source: IHS MARKIT 2015

Page 9: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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Global LDPE Market Development

9

0

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

production Domestic Demand

Mill

ion

Met

ric

Ton

s

Source: 2016 IHS MARKIT

■ Steady demand growth for LDPE will require new investments

▪ Global LDPE demand expected to grow abot 3% p.a.during next 5 years▪ 2-3 new LDPE lines required p.a. to match demand growth

Page 10: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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■ Continued demand growth is driver for new LDPE investments

■ Local feedstock costs are important for project economics

■ Cost for power and utilities remain a key driver in technology selection for projects

■ Recovery of heat of polymerization reduces variable costs significantly

■ Capability for value added products

Drivers for new LDPE Investment

10

90%

2%5% 3%

Cash Cost Analysis LDPE

Monomer

Chemicals andAdditives

Power and Utilities

Fixed Costs

Source: lnternal LYB Estimates

Differentiators for new Investement

This Technology selection for benchmark operating costs and revenue

Page 11: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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Lupotech T - LDPE Tubular Technology

11

Leading high-pressure tubular reactor process for the production of LDPE and EVA copolymers

Market leader with approximately 11 million tons of total licensed capacity

Largest single line capacity up to 450 kt/a State-of-the-art world-scale plants (300-400 kt/a) in

operation since many years Wide-grade slate, including higher density products

and EVA copolymers up to 30% VA Largest EVA copolymer plant in operation Very low investment and operating costs Stable, flexible and optimized operability

LDPE EVA

Source Basell PO GmbH

Page 12: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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Estimated Lupotech T Operating costs CAPEX Saving

12

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Power Initiator &Chemicals

ExtruderAdditives

Steam SteamExport

Differential benefits

Reactor Smaller plot, Uniform diameter, Short

radius bends, Simplified innovative

PX dosing system, Lower design

pressure

Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit

HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure, Single

crankshaft machines up to 450 KTA,

Smaller motor

Others Reduced HP recycle system, Low

number of degassing silos

▪ Lupotech T specific process features with a potential for significant savings on running costs ▪ Up to 10% savings on capital investment due to specific Lupotech T differential elements

LDPE Tubular Reactor Economics

Source: Consultant report, LYB analyses

Favorable Economics based on competitive power & utilities costs

Page 13: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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Efficiency increases While increasing scale

Lupotech T AdvancementsEfficiency Increases

13

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Increase of Plant Efficiency of Lupotech T linesRelative Reduction of critical Consumption and Losses

MonomerLosses

InitiatorConsumption

EnergyConsumption

050

100150200250300350400450500

1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2016

KTA

Design Capacity of new installed Lupotech T Lines

■ Monomer losses reduced up to 40%■ Initiator reduction by 50%■ Energy reduction by 20%

■ Scale up factor > 5 in 30 years■ Today: Up to 500 kt/a

Source: LYBSource: LYB

Page 14: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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■ Significant reduction of monomer losses through :▪ Introduction of service programs which allow to keep ethylene inventory to a large extent

within plant when experiencing operational disturbances (applied in case of non critical process/plant disturbances)

Reduction of number of plant shut downs up to 60%Increased plant availability

Use of Plant Service Programs for increasing Plant Efficiency

14

Reactor Depressurization during Service Program

Lupotech T Configuration

Source: LYBSource: LYB

Higher monomer efficiency and increased plant availability

Page 15: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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Lupotech T Advancements

Significant reduced reactor tube wall thickness (20%) Improved heat transfer through reactor walls Thinner wall thickness leads to improved fracture mechanics

(leak before break behaviour) Reduced Investment (ca.40% material savings) Selected material is 3,5 Nickel steel according ASME SA 723, modified

15

Use of a High Strength Steel as Reactor Tube Material

75mm75 mm

Optimization of Reactor Design Pressure results in further Savings Tube Design Pressure: 3600 bar Tube Design Pressure: 3200 bar

Source: LYB

Increased Process Conversation Rate (up to 5%)Reduced Investment for reactor Tubing ( up to 20%)

Page 16: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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Lupotech A – Autoclave Polyethylene Technology

Autoclave process for the production of LDPE and very high EVA copolymers (up to 40%)

Autoclave process for the production of LDPE and very high EVA copolymers Well-proven technology 44 reactors in operation 1.8 million tons licensed capacity 4 licenses granted in 2013 (4 x 100KTA) High reliability EVA content up to 40 wt % for specialty application Optionally Ethylene/Acrylic Copolymers Broadest line of LDPE resins Specialty products based on unique long-chain

branching structures

Source Basell PO GmbH

LDPE High EVA

Source Basell PO GmbH

Page 17: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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Typical High EVA Applications

17

■ Films▪ Food Packaging▪ Greenhouse▪ Photovoltaic

■ Moldings▪ Footwear▪ Profiles

■ Hot Melt Adhesives

Source: Equistar Chemicals, LP Source: Equistar Chemicals, LP

Source: Equistar Chemicals, LP

Source: EPAI 2013Source: bpsindustries

Source: dreamstime

Page 18: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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Photovoltaic Market Growth

■ Global Annual Market Growth of Photovoltaic Installations

18

Lupotech process provides potential for significant reduction of running costs

Data: IHS MARKIT. Graph: PSE 2017

Page 19: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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Conclusion

■ Investments in new LDPE plants will continue based on steady market growth■ New Investments in LDPE capacity are focused to areas with advantaged

feedstock or above average market growth■ Areas with advantaged feedstock position are favoring investments in large

scale commodity plants■ Investments designated for local markets are typically focusing on value

added specialty grades■ Significant differentiation of manufacturing costs by selecting processes with

optimized heat integration and reduced power consumption

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Page 20: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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DisclaimerBefore using a product sold by a company of the LyondellBasell family of companies, users should make their own independent determination that the product is suitable for the intended use and can be used safely and legally. SELLER MAKES NO WARRANTY; EXPRESS OR IMPLIED (INCLUDING ANY WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR ANY WARRANTY) OTHER THAN AS SEPARATELY AGREED TO BY THE PARTIES IN A CONTRACT.

LyondellBasell prohibits or restricts the use of its products in certain applications. For further information on restrictions or prohibitions of use, please contact a LyondellBasell representative.

Users should review the applicable Safety Data Sheet before handling the product.

Adflex, Adstif, Adsyl, Akoafloor, Akoalit, Alastian, Alathon, Alkylate, Amazing Chemistry, Aquamarine, Aquathene, Avant, Catalloy,

Clyrell, CRP, Crystex, Dexflex, Duopac, Duoprime, Explore & Experiment, Filmex, Flexathene, Fueling the power to win, Glacido,

Hifax, Hiflex, Histif, Hostacom, Hostalen, Hyperzone, Ideal, Indure, Integrate, Koattro, LIPP, Lucalen, Luflexen, Lupolen, Luposim,

Lupostress, Lupotech, Metocene, Microthene, Moplen, MPDIOL, Nerolex, Nexprene, Petrothene, Plexar, Polymeg, Pristene,

Prodflex, Pro-fax, Punctilious, Purell, Refax, SAA100, SAA101, Sequel, Softell, Spherilene, Spheripol, Spherizone, Starflex,

Stretchene, Superflex, TBAc , Tebol, T-Hydro, Toppyl, Trans4m, Tufflo, Ultrathene, Vacido and Valtec are trademarks owned and/or used by the LyondellBasell family of companies.Adsyl, Akoafloor, Akoalit, Alastian, Alathon, Aquamarine, Avant, CRP, Crystex, Dexflex, Duopac, Duoprime, Explore &

Experiment, Filmex, Flexathene, Hifax, Hostacom, Hostalen, Ideal, Integrate, Koattro, Lucalen, Lupolen, Metocene, Microthene,

Moplen, MPDIOL, Nexprene, Petrothene, Plexar, Polymeg, Pristene, Pro-fax, Punctilious, Purell, Sequel, Softell, Spheripol,

Spherizone, Starflex, Tebol, T-Hydro, Toppyl, Tufflo and Ultrathene are registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

This presentation includes industry data that we obtained from periodic industry publications, including Factset., IHS, AmericanChemistry Council (ACC), PwC Global Megatrends Report (2017), U.N. Department of Economic & Social Affairs (WorldPopulation Ageing: 1950-2050), U.N. World Water Development Report (2017). Industry publications generally state that theinformation contained therein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but there can be no assurance as to theaccuracy or completeness of included information. Additionally, the industry sources that we reference request or require that, ifwe reproduce the information they provide, we inform readers that they make no warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracyor completeness of, nor assume any liability for, such information. We believe that the industry data that we obtained from industrypublications is reliable and is the data commonly and regularly used for analysis of our industry. However, we have made noindependent verification of, and we make no representations regarding, the accuracy of these data.

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Disclaimer

Although the information and recommendations made in these presentation slides (hereinafter "Information") arepresented in good faith and believed to be correct, LyondellBasell family of companies make no representations orwarranties as to the completeness or accuracy of Information. Information is supplied upon the condition that thepersons receiving the same will make their own determination as to its suitability for their intended use and can be usedsafely and legally. In no event will LyondellBasell family of companies be responsible for damages of any naturewhatsoever resulting from the use of or reliance upon Information or the product to which Information refers.

Nothing contained herein is to be construed as a recommendation to use any product, process, equipment orformulation in conflict with any patent, and LyondellBasell family of companies make no representation or warranty,express or implied, that the use thereof will not infringe any patent.

No representations or warranties, either express or implied, of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose or of anyother nature are made hereunder with respect to information or the product to which information refers.

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Page 22: Market Outlook for LDPE and Technology Trends...PX dosing system, Lower design pressure Cooling system No need for extensive chilling unit HP compressor Optimized Operating pressure,

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