Market Outlook, 31-07-2013

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Market OutlookJuly 31, 2013

Dealers Diary

Indian markets are expected to open in the red tracking negative opening trades in

SGX Nifty and most of the other Asian markets.

The US markets turned in a relatively lackluster performance over the course of the

trading day on Tuesday before ending the session roughly flat. Lingering

uncertainty about the Federal Reserve contributed to the choppy trading on the

day. The Dow ended the day down 1.38 points to 15,521, while the S&P 500

inched up 0.63 points to 1,686. Meanwhile, The European markets ended

Tuesday's session in positive territory. Investor sentiment received a boost from the

better than expected German GfK consumer sentiment report and the continued

gains in Eurozone economic confidence. Investors were also confronted by a large

number of earnings reports on Tuesday, the results of which were mixed.

Meanwhile, Indian shares fell sharply on Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)

left its key interest rates unchanged, but lowered its growth projection for 2013-14

to 5.5 percent from 5.7 percent. The Indian rupee slumped below the

psychological 60 mark against the dollar after the central bank sounded more

dovish, saying the time available now should be used with alacrity to institute

structural measures to bring the current account deficit down to sustainable levels.

The RBI didn't give a specific timeline for rolling back the recent liquidity tightening

measures.

Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 19,450/ 5,788 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 19,571 19,794 / 5,828 5,902 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

19,450 / 5,788 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

19,227 19,106 / 5,715 5,674 levels.

Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 19,106 19,227 19,450 19,571 19,794

NIFTY 5,674 5,715 5,788 5,828 5,902

News Analysis Constrained by impossible trinity, RBI maintains rates CBI may close Aircel-Maxis case Result Review: NTPC, DRL, Shree Cement, Petronet LNG, IPCA Labs, Sanofi

India, GMDC, PVR, Indoco Remedies, Result Preview: Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, HCL Technologies, JSW Steel,

Motherson Sumi, United Spirits, Andhra Bank, Jagran, Dishman PharmaRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (July 29, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 2,171 2,381 (209) (6,313) 64,993

MFs 326 684 (359) (1,982) (14,159)

FII Derivatives (July 30, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 1,733 2,592 (859) 11,559

Stock Futures 1,756 1,910 (154) 24,687

Gainers / LosersGainers Losers

Company Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)Neyveli Lignite 57 6.3 JPPOWER 11 (15.8)

Mahindra & MahFin

230 4.4 Havells India 660 (12.6)

Mphasis 400 3.1 HPCL 199 (11.3)

Bharti Infratel 149 2.8 TV18 Broadcast 17 (9.1)

Wipro 420 2.8 BPCL 312 (8.4)

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex (1.3) (245) 19,348

Nifty (1.3) (77) 5,755

MID CAP (2.0) (112) 5,592

SMALL CAP (2.0) (108) 5,361

BSE HC (1.1) (101) 9,046

BSE PSU (3.1) (174) 5,421

BANKEX (1.3) (151) 11,656

AUTO (2.1) (220) 10,469

METAL (1.9) (131) 6,722

OIL & GAS (3.9) (341) 8,421

BSE IT 0.9 66 7,363

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones (0.0) (1) 15,521NASDAQ 0.5 17 3,616

FTSE 0.2 11 6,571

Nikkei 1.5 209 13,870

Hang Sang 0.5 104 21,954

Straits Times 0.3 8 3,245

Shanghai Com 0.7 14 1,990

Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY (0.2) (0.1) $49.7

WIT 0.8 0.1 $8.5IBN (3.5) (1.2) $33.0

HDB (4.8) (1.7) $33.3

Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 677 295

Declines 1,593 1,022

Unchanged 140 70

Volumes (` cr)BSE 1,753

NSE 10,265

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Constrained by impossible trinity, RBI maintains rates

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its First Quarter Review of the monetary policy

maintained status quo on policy rates, in line with our and market expectations.

The Repo Rate stands unchanged at 7.25%, Reverse Repo Rate at 6.25% and the

Cash Reserve Ratio remains unchanged at 4.00% of banks NDTL. After cutting

rates thrice in 2013, the RBI maintained status quo on rates for the second time

since June in order to address macro-stability concerns owing to the sharp INR

depreciation. The policy came in the backdrop of recent hikes by the RBI in the

Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Rate and Bank Rate by 200bp to tackle exchange

rate volatility and they continue to remain at 10.25%.

The RBI has revised its real GDP growth projection for FY2014 lower to 5.5% from

the earlier estimate of 5.7%. The trajectory for WPI inflation is expected to reach

5.0% by end-March 2014 on account of soft global commodity prices, good

monsoon and sluggish demand scenario. The RBI has amply indicated that given

the growth-inflation dynamics, it would in normal circumstances have supported

growth. However to revert to that stance, stability in currency remains key.

In its guidance on the monetary policy stance, the RBI concurs that it is constrained

by the impossible trinity trilemma. In the current context, with the policy-makers

not keen on letting the exchange rate be dictated purely by market forces, it is

monetary independence that RBI has acknowledged to sacrifice to an extent.

Simply put, the RBI has indicated that sluggish demand and growth conditions and

moderating inflation would have warranted a more growth-supportive stance.

However, the exchange rate volatility amidst a high current account deficit (CAD)

and risk of continued capital outflows due to the U.S Feds anticipated withdrawal

of QE have compelled it to increase short-term rates to elevated levels.

The RBI has tightened monetary conditions particularly at the short-end sinceJuly 15, 2013 in order to contain exchange rate volatility. Following the

announcement of these measures, the bond yields have hardened by nearly

150bp on the short-end. With higher nominal rates and decelerating inflation, the

real interest rate is also on a rising trajectory. We note that the real interest rate

differential on 1-year paper between India and the US is at almost 6%. Such

considerable differential is expected to attract FII investments in the debt market,

boost capital inflows and thereby support the INR. The policy had some dovish

remarks regarding their eventual roll-back, possibly to manage medium-term

growth expectations.

Policy outlookOverall, we believe the RBIs recent stabilization measures signal a reversal from

the RBIs earlier stance of supporting growth until the INR is at a comfortable level.

We believe that in the near-term, coupled with the growth-inflation scenario,

developments on the CAD front and capital flows (which depend on global

liquidity) would continue determining the monetary policy stance. The calibrated

withdrawal of the RBIs tightening measures is conditional on forex stability, which

itself could be challenging in the near-term due to global and domestic factors

unless there are sharper measures from the government to address imports and

exports. We believe that with these measures likely to continue over the next 1-2

months, we might see transmission of higher-than-anticipated interest rates intobroader segments.

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CBI may close Aircel-Maxis case

According to media reports, CBI has not received any useful information from

Malaysia in regards to Aircel-Maxis case. Hence, the agency may find it difficult to

file a charge-sheet and the case is likely to be closed. A final decision regarding

closing of case is expected in 2 months. This case has been an overhang on SunTV for some time. Hence, Sun TV stands to benefit if this case is closed. Till further

clarity emerges, we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

Result Review

NTPC (CMP:`138/TP:`163 /Upside: 18.1%)

For 1QFY2014, NTPC reported mixed set of results. The companys top-line

declined by 2.2% yoy to `15,613cr (compared to our expectation of `16,519cr).

Generation revenues fell by 3% yoy to`15,711cr as power generation declined by

3.2% yoy to 57,007GWH.

However, EBITDA margin has beaten our expectations and street estimates,

expanding by 457bp yoy to 27.3% (our expectation of 24.1%). Consequently, net

profit came in almost flat yoy at `2,527cr (our expectation of`2,515cr). NTPC is

currently trading at relatively cheap valuations of 1.2x 2015E BV. We recommendBuy rating on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 76,734 24.5 11,039 13.4 12.8 10.3 1.3 8.9 2.2

FY2015E 86,680 24.3 11,933 14.5 12.7 9.5 1.2 8.5 2.1

DRL (CMP:`2179/ TP: -2535/ Upside: -16.3%)

DRL reported numbers lower than expected. The top line posted a growth of 11.9%

to`2845cr for 1QFY2014 14.8% lower than expectations of`3340cr.The Topline

growth was primarily driven by Global Generics, which grew by 15% yoy, driven

by USA ,which rose by 37% yoy. On the Other hand the PSAI segment, registered

a growth of 6% yoy.

Other key markets, like Europe dipped by 28%, mainly lead by Germany which

posted a dip of 26% yoy. The key markets which impacted the sales and

profitability was Russia and India. While Russia, posted a growth of 4% yoy, the

Indian markets remained flat during the period. The Russian market growth during

the quarter was impacted by the high base impact of the previous year, while the

Indian markets were impacted by the implementation of the new drug policy.

The OPM came in at 19.2% lower than expectation of 21.1% and a yoy dip of

280bps. The main reason for the dip has been the R&D expenses, which increased

by 55% yoy, to end the period at 8.5% of the sales V/s 6.2% of sales in

1QFY2013.The adjusted net profit came in at `322cr a growth of 11.9% yoy,

lower than estimated `453cr. The main reason for the same has been the

contraction in OPM. We maintain a buy on the stock.

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Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 13,377 20.4 1,903 112.3 23.5 19.4 4.1 14.6 3.0

FY2015E 15,350 20.1 2,149 126.8 21.8 17.2 3.4 12.8 2.6

Shree Cement (CMP:`4,313/TP:-/Upside:-)

For 4QFY2013 Shree Cement posted better than expected results on the bottom-

line front on account of higher other income and lower tax expense. Top-line fell

by 1% yoy to`1,442cr, with cement division posting a 9.7% decline in the top-line

to`1,141cr. Cement volumes were down by 5.9% yoy impacted by demand de-

growth in the companys key markets in North India. However, power business

posted a top-line growth of 81%, aided by a 104% yoy growth in volumes to

794MU. OPM was down by 663bp yoy to 26.3% due to lower cement realization

and increase in raw material and freight cost. Although Bottom-line fell by 18.9%

yoy to`284cr, it was better than estimates on account of higher other income of

`92cr (up 184% yoy) and lower tax expense of `16cr (down 50% yoy). Wemaintain our neutral rating on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/tonne*June (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (US $)FY2014E 6,607 27.5 1,124 323 27.8 13.4 3.3 5.9 130

FY2015E 7,520 26.7 1,304 374 25.6 11.5 2.7 4.6

Note: *Computed on TTM basis

Petronet LNG (CMP:`115, TP: Under Review, Upside: -)

Petronet LNG reported 1QFY2014 numbers. The companys net sales grew by20.1% yoy to`8,444 due to higher prices of LNG during the quarter. The volumes

for the company were flat yoy at 130TBTU mainly due to lower tolling volumes

from GAIL and GSPC. The cost of LNG re-gasified increased by 22.5% yoy to

`7,959cr and hence the EBITDA declined by 13.0% yoy to `398cr whereas the

EBITDA margin declined by 179bp yoy to 4.7% in 1QFY2014 due to higher

proportion of contractual volumes. The other income decreased by 42.7% yoy to

`15cr, while the tax rate increased to 34.2% in 1QFY2014, compared to 33.1% in

1QFY2013. Hence, the net profit declined by 16.8% yoy to`225cr. We maintainour Buy rating on the stock but keep our target price under review.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 39,582 5.4 1,052 14.0 21.6 8.2 1.6 5.3 0.3

FY2015E 43,315 5.9 1,287 17.2 22.2 6.7 1.4 4.1 0.2

IPCA Labs (CMP:`654/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

Ipca Laboratories reported numbers in line with the expectations. The topline

posted a growth of 25.7% to`793cr for 1QFY2014 2.2% lower than expectations

of`811cr.The Topline growth was primarily driven by formulations, which grew by

29% yoy, driven by exports, which rose by 47% yoy, while domestic sales grew by12%, outperforming the Industry growth, which is expected to have grown around

7% during the period. API segment on the hand grew by 17% yoy, driven by the

both domestic and exports, which grew by 16% and 17% respectively.

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The OPM came in at 19.9% lower than expectation of 20.8% and a yoy dip of

190bps. The adjusted net profit came in at `107cr a de-growth of 7.0% yoy. This

was just in line with the expectation of `109cr during the quarter. Higher other

income compensated the lower than expected operating profit during the period,

thus aiding the net profit to come in line with expectations. We maintain neutral onthe stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 3,243 20.5 455 36.0 26.0 18.0 4.2 13.0 2.7

FY2015E 3,826 21.5 560 44.4 25.4 14.5 3.4 10.3 2.2

Sanofi India (CMP:`2,375/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

Sanofi posted better than expected numbers. For 1QFY2014, Sanofi India, posted

a growth of 9.5% in sales to`410cr during 2QCY2013 V/s expectation of`421cr

.Its OPM came in at 15.2% an expansion of 120bps. This aided, the net profit tocome in at`51.2cr a yoy growth of 26.4%.We maintain our neutral on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesDec (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)CY2013E 1,682 16.6 213 92.4 15.7 25.7 3.6 17.3 2.9

CY2014E 1,917 16.6 228 99.1 16.7 24.0 3.6 14.1 2.3

GMDC (CMP:`93/ TP: Under Review/ Upside: -)

GMDC reported disappointing 1QFY2014 results. The company's net sales

declined by 25.4% yoy to`370cr due to poor performance from both mining and

power segments. The Company's EBITDA also declined by 36.0% yoy to `172cr

reflecting the fall in top-line. The other income grew by 90.0% yoy to `38cr and as

a result companys net profit declined by a lower rate of 30.4% to `119cr. Wemaintain our Buy view on the stock but keep our target price under review.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 1,776 52.7 653 19.9 23.3 4.7 1.0 2.3 1.2

FY2015E 2,124 52.6 776 23.6 23.0 3.9 0.8 1.6 0.8

PVR (CMP:`341/TP: -/Upside: - %)

For 1QFY2014, PVRs top-line came in at`335cr, beating our estimates as well as

street expectations due to good performance in movie exhibition business, with

many successful releases during the quarter. Cinemaxs financials have been

consolidated in the quarter and hence, the numbers are not comparable yoy. On

the operating front, PVRs EBITDA margin was in-line with our expectations,

coming in at 17.7% Consequently, Net profit came in at `14cr. At the current

market price, PVR is trading at 15.9x FY2015E consolidated EPS of `21.5. Webelieve the stock is fairly valued and hence, maintain our Neutral rating on thestock.

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Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 1,359 17.3 68 17.2 10.6 19.9 2.0 6.2 0.9

FY2015E 1,540 17.4 85 21.5 12.3 15.9 1.8 5.4 0.8

Indoco Remedies (CMP:`59/ TP: -78/ Upside: -32.2%)

Indoco Remedies announced numbers much below expectations. The topline came

in at`148cr, much below the expectations of`183cr, a yoy dip of 2.0%. The dip in

the topline was on account of exports which declined by 17.7% yoy , while

domestic sales grew by yoy 6.5%.

The OPMs also came in at 12.5% lower than expectations of 13.8% and 13.7% in

1QFY2013, a yoy dip of 120bps. Inspite of a lower sale the dip in OPM was not

significant as Gross Profit Margins came in at 59.7% V/s expectations 56.3%

(same as in1QFY2013). As a result, net profit came in at`9.2cr V/s expectation of

`14.4cr, a yoy dip of 11.3%.We maintain our buy with a target price of `78.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 761 15.3 56 6.1 12.9 9.8 1.3 6.4 1.0

FY2015E 922 15.3 72 7.8 14.7 7.7 1.1 5.5 0.8

Result Preview

Bharti Airtel (CMP:`321/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

Bharti Airtel is slated to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect thecompany to record revenue of `20,859cr, up 1.9% qoq. In domestic mobile

services, MOU as well as ARPM is expected to go up by ~1.0% qoq each to

460min and`0.43/min, respectively. Africa business is expected to post ~3% qoq

growth in revenues. Consolidated EBITDA margin of the company is expected to

inch up by 49bp qoq to 32.2%. PAT is expected to be at`780cr. We maintain ourNeutral view on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 85,489 31.9 3,883 10.2 7.2 31.4 2.3 6.6 2.1

FY2015E 94,229 31.9 5,553 14.6 9.4 22.0 2.1 5.7 1.8

ICICI Bank (CMP:`927 / TP:`1,131 / Upside: 22.0%)

ICICI Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect the

bank to report a healthy NII growth of 23.9% yoy to `3,956cr. Non-interest

income is also expected to grow at a healthy pace of 19.6% yoy to `2,249cr, aidedby gains on treasury book. Operating expenses are expected to increase by 14.6%

yoy to`2,433cr. Provisioning expenses are expected to increase by 30.5% yoy to

`608cr. Overall, we expect the bank to report healthy PAT growth of 25.8% yoy at

`2,284Cr. At the CMP, post the recent correction, the stock trades at 1.3x

FY2015E ABV. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock, with a target price of`1,131.

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Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 26,119 3.1 9,943 86.2 634.0 1.6 15.6 10.8 1.5

FY2015E 30,474 3.1 11,481 99.5 698.0 1.6 16.2 9.3 1.3

HCL Technologies (CMP:`906/ TP: - Upside: -)HCL Technologies is slated to announce its 4QFY2013 numbers today. We expect

the company to post revenue of US$1,232mn, up 3.5% qoq. In rupee terms, the

revenue is expected to grow by 9% qoq to`7,025cr. EBITDA margin is expected to

increase by 92bp qoq to 23.3%, aided by INR depreciation. PAT is expected to

come in at`1,071cr, up 3.0% qoq. Owing to recent run-up in the stock price, we

maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 29,424 22.6 4,187 59.5 24.6 15.2 3.7 8.7 2.0FY2015E 32,837 22.0 4,459 63.3 21.7 14.3 3.1 7.6 1.7

United Spirits (CMP:`2,535/TP:-/Upside:-)

United Spirits is expected to declare its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect the

standalone top-line to grow by 12.5% yoy to`2,314cr. OPM is expected to decline

by 408bp yoy to 12.2%. Bottom-line is expected to decline by 29.9% yoy to

`102cr. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/salesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 12,294 12.0 612 42.1 9.1 60.2 4.2 27.9 3.4

FY2015E 14,162 12.0 983 67.7 10.7 37.5 3.8 24.0 2.9

Note: Consolidated financials are furnished in the table

JSW Steel (CPM:`534/ TP:-/ Upside :-)

JSW Steel is slated to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. The results are not

comparable with 1QFY2013 as JSW Steel has merged with JSW Ispat during

4QFY2013. We expect its standalone net sales to be `11,147cr. The operating

margin is expected to be 17.4% and the net profit is also expected to be `585cr.

We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 47,631 16.1 1,173 47.9 6.6 11.1 0.7 4.1 0.7

FY2015E 49,721 16.6 1,652 67.5 8.8 7.9 0.7 3.8 0.6

Motherson Sumi Systems (CMP:`199/ TP:`222/ Upside: 11%)

Motherson Sumi Systems (MSS) is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2014 results

today. We expect MSS to register a ~6% yoy growth in its consolidated revenues to

`6,665cr. The top-line is expected to be driven by a strong growth of ~24% yoy

(~4% qoq) in Samvardhana Motherson Reflectec (SMR) revenues, which is likely tobe aided by improving utilization levels. However revenues at Peguform

(accounting for ~50% of total revenue) are expected to remain flat yoy as well as

qoq. We expect EBITDA margins to improve by ~165bp yoy to 8.8% led by

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improvement in operating performance at SMR. This is expected to result in a ~6%

yoy growth in the adjusted net profit to`221cr. At the CMP of `199, the stock is

trading at 13.5x FY2015E earnings. Currently we have an Accumulate rating onthe stock with a target price of `222.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 28,442 7.5 736 12.5 27.5 15.9 3.9 7.3 0.5

FY2015E 31,493 7.8 869 14.8 25.8 13.5 3.1 6.3 0.5

Dishman Pharma (CMP: `45/ TP: -168/ Upside: -270.5%)We estimate Dishman Pharmas top-line to grow by 10.5% to `349cr for

1QFY2014. The OPM is expected to dip by 190bp yoy to end at 24.6%. The net

profit is expected to degrow by 13.4% yoy, on back of dip in OPM. We maintainbuy on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 1,394 22.5 121 15.0 11.0 3.0 0.3 3.9 0.9

FY2015E 1,534 22.4 136 16.8 11.2 2.7 0.3 3.2 0.7

Andhra Bank- (CMP:`69/ TP: - / Upside: -)Andhra Bank is slated to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect the

bank to report Net Interest Income (NII) growth of 4.0% yoy to `976cr. Non-

interest income is expected to remain flat yoy at`235cr. Operating expenses of the

bank are expected to be higher by 11.1% yoy to `522cr, while provisioning

expenses are expected to increase by 7.4% yoy to `222cr. Overall, Net Profit is

expected to decline by 3.4% yoy to `350cr. At the CMP, the stock trades at a

valuation of 0.4x FY2015E ABV. Given the weak economic environment, we

believe that the asset quality pressures are unlikely to abate as quickly as was

anticipated earlier. Hence, we maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 5,180 2.7 1,064 19.0 143.8 0.7 12.0 3.7 0.5

FY2015E 5,815 2.7 1,281 22.9 160.8 0.7 13.2 3.1 0.4

Jagran (CMP:`90/TP:`119/Upside: 32%)

Jagran is slated to announce its 1QFY2014 results. The companys top-line is

expected to grow by 8.1% yoy to`343cr. However, OPM is expected to contract by

232bp yoy to 22.5%. Consequently, Net profit is expected to decline by 6.7% yoy

to `52cr. At the current market price, Jagran is trading at 11x FY2015E

consolidated EPS of `7.8. We maintain Buy on the stock with the target price of`119.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 1,664 20.9 203 6.4 26.7 14.0 2.8 8.9 1.8FY2015E 1,825 23.0 246 7.8 26.8 11.6 2.5 7.2 1.7

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Quarterly Bloomberg Consensus Estimate

Bharti Airtel Consolidated (31/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 21,264 19,350 9.9 20,460 3.9

EBITDA 6,700 6,009 11.5 6,501 3.1EBITDA margin (%) 31.5 31.1 31.8

Net profit 720 762 (5.5) 509 41.5

HCL Tech Consolidated (31/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 6,772 5,919 14.4 6,451 5.0

EBITDA 1,560 1,301 19.9 1,439 8.4

EBITDA margin (%) 23.0 22.0 22.3

Net profit 1,061 854 24.2 1,044 1.6

ICICI Bank (31/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 2,233 1,815 23.0 2,304 (3.1)

JSW Steel Consolidated (31/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 10,525 9,902 6.3 9,898 6.3

EBITDA 1,654 1,909 (13.3) 1,733 (4.6)

EBITDA margin (%) 15.7 19.3 17.5

Net profit 311 50 522.4 296 5.2

NHPC (31/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,565 1,399 11.9 1,038 50.8

EBITDA 1,038 904 14.8 602 72.3

EBITDA margin (%) 66.3 3.0 58.0

Net profit 649 670 (3.1) 583 11.2

United Spirits (31/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 2,333 2,057 13.4 2,058 13.4

EBITDA 365 351 4.1 236 54.6

EBITDA margin (%) 15.6 17.0 11.5

Net profit 140 145 (3.2) 56 150.7

Adani Ports & SEZ (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 863 774 11.5 772 11.8

EBITDA 608 632 (3.8) 640 (5.0)

EBITDA margin (%) 70.5 81.7 83.0

Net profit 428 418 2.3 491 (12.8)

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Bank of Baroda (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,082 1,139 (5.0) 1,029 5.1

Glenmark Pharma Consolidated (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,270 1,040 22.0 1,336 (4.9)

EBITDA 252 165 52.8 255 (1.0)

EBITDA margin (%) 19.9 15.9 19.1

Net profit 151 78 92.9 167 (9.5)

Idea Consolidated (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 6,347 5,502 15.4 6,027 5.3

EBITDA 1,786 1,436 24.4 1,673 6.7

EBITDA margin (%) 28.1 26.1 27.8

Net profit 395 234 68.6 308 28.0

Cummins India (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,264 1,241 1.8 1,128 12.0

EBITDA 213 232 (8.6) 194 9.6

EBITDA margin (%) 16.8 18.7 17.2

Net profit 173 181 (4.2) 189 (8.2)

Power Grid Corporation (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,077 870 23.8 1,109 (2.9)

Reliance Communication Consolidated (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 5,776 4,878 18.4 4,985 15.9

EBITDA 1,884 1,595 18.1 1,392 35.3

EBITDA margin (%) 32.6 32.7 27.9

Net profit 230 162 42.0 303 (24.1)

Tata Global Beverage Consolidated (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,866 1,715 8.8 1,811 3.1

EBITDA 219 181 21.0 223 (2.1)

EBITDA margin (%) 11.7 10.5 12.3

Net profit 105 78 34.9 96 9.4

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Titan Industries (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 2,727 2,206 23.6 2,593 5.1

EBITDA 271 212 27.8 267 1.8

EBITDA margin (%) 9.9 9.6 10.3

Net profit 188 156 20.6 185 1.7

Union Bank of India (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 636 512 24.4 789 (19.4)

Economic and Political News

Weak rupee to adversely hit fuel prices in coming months: RBI

RBI promises to roll back tough liquidity tightening steps Fin Min may cut expenditure again to control fiscal deficit Coal bed methane policy to be placed before cabinet

Corporate News

Cabinet may take up 10% IOC disinvestment proposal tomorrow Maruti earmarks capital investment of`3,500cr for FY2014 SIDBI targets 10% loan disbursement growth in FY2014

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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Date Company

July 31, 2013Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, NHPC, HCL Tech, JSW Steel , United Spirits, Motherson Sumi, Andhra Bank, JagranPrakashan, Dishman Pharma, HSIL

August 01, 2013J & K Bank, Power Grid Corpn, Idea Cellular, Mundra Port, Bank of Baroda, Titan Inds., Adani Power, Rcom, UnionBank, Cummins India, GlaxoSmith Con, Glenmark Pharma., Tata Global, Tree House

August 02, 2013 Siemens, Power Fin.Corpn., Sun TV Network, Suzlon Energy, Bank of Maharashtra

August 03, 2013Coal India, BHEL, Grasim Inds, Canara Bank, Godrej Consumer, Divi's Lab., Oriental Bank, PTC India, GodawariIspat

August 04, 2013

August 05, 2013 Tata Chemicals, LMW, Graphite India, GIPCL, SpiceJet

August 06, 2013 Tata Power Co., Bosch India, Crompton Greaves, Unitech

August 07, 2013Tata Motors, Ranbaxy, Lupin, GSK Pharma, Cadila Healthcare, Gujarat Gas, Apollo Tyres, Nagarjuna Const., AlembicPharma

August 08, 2013NMDC, Adani Enterp., Rural Elec.Corp., Bharat Forge, IRB Infra, ITNL, Page Industries, Prakash Industries, ITDCementation

August 09, 2013 Sun Pharma, ABB, Aurobindo Pharma, TVS Motor, Finolex Cables, Goodyear

August 10, 2013 Sarda Energy

August 11, 2013

August 12, 2013 ONGC, HPCL, Marico, Indraprasth Gas, Britannia, India Cements, Jyothy Laboratories

August 13, 2013 IOC, M&M, Tata Steel, Hindalco, BPCL, GMR Infra., GSPL

August 14, 2013 Amara Raja Batteries, Simplex Infra

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

July 31, 2013 1:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jul (12.00) --

6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 2Q A 1.80 1.00

11:30PM US FOMC rate decision % Jul 31 0.25 0.25August 1, 2013 6:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Jul 27 343.00 345.00

1:25PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jul F 50.30 50.30

6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jul 50.10 49.80

2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jul 52.50 52.80

4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Aug 1 0.50 0.50

5:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Aug 1 0.50 0.50

August 2, 2013 6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jul 195.00 185.00

6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Jul 7.60 7.50

August 5, 2013 1:25PM Germany PMI Services Value Jul F 52.50 --

August 6, 2013 2:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jun (2.30) --

August 8, 2013 4:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Jul (3.10) --

August 9, 2013 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jul 2.70 --

11:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jul 8.90 --

August 12, 2013 4:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change Jul (0.37) --

4:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change Jul (4.60) --

5:30PM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Jun (1.60) --

August 13, 2013 2:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Jul 2.90 --

August 14, 2013 2:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Jul (21.20) --

11:30AM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 2Q P (1.40) --

12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Jul 4.86 --

2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 2Q A (0.30) --

6:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Jul 0.80 --


July 31, 2013

Market Outlook

8/22/2019 Market Outlook, 31-07-2013

13/21



Macro watch

Exhibit1:Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit2:IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit3:Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit4:Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit5:Exports and imports growth trends


Exhibit6:Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

9.3

7.7

11.4

9.5

8.69.2

9.9

7.5

6.56.0

5.1 5.4 5.24.7 4.8

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13

(%)

(2.0)

(0.1)

2.0

(0.7)

8.4

(1.0) (0.6)

2.5

0.6

3.4

1.9

(1.6)(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Jun-1

2

Ju

l-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc

t-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

(%)

8.0 8.17.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3

5.7

4.8 4.7 4.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc

t-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

(%)

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Ju

l-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc

t-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(15.0)

0.0

15.0

Ju

l-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc

t-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb-1

3

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-13

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

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14/21

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 142 - 2,763 1,674 1,923 13.7 13.7 6.8 7.6 20.9 18.7 3.9 3.5 20.0 19.6 1.8 1.6

United Phosphorus Buy 137 225 6,084 10,091 11,302 16.5 16.5 19.2 22.5 7.2 6.1 1.1 1.0 17.0 17.2 0.7 0.6

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Buy 243 285 4,148 3,418 3,892 14.5 14.5 18.5 20.4 13.1 11.9 3.2 2.6 26.6 23.8 1.2 1.0

Apollo Tyres Neutral 68 - 3,427 13,852 15,487 11.4 11.5 12.8 14.9 5.3 4.6 0.9 0.7 17.5 17.3 0.4 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 14 22 3,619 13,450 15,853 6.5 8.5 0.4 1.9 35.6 7.3 1.2 1.1 2.3 11.0 0.4 0.3

Automotive Axle# Neutral 219 - 331 834 965 9.3 10.6 17.3 27.1 12.7 8.1 1.2 1.1 9.5 14.0 0.5 0.4Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,928 2,102 55,787 21,696 25,239 19.2 19.3 119.3 140.2 16.2 13.8 5.7 4.5 38.9 36.6 2.2 1.8

Bharat Forge Neutral 200 - 4,648 6,198 6,793 14.6 14.9 14.5 17.3 13.7 11.5 1.8 1.6 13.6 14.7 0.9 0.8

Bosch India* Neutral 8,902 - 27,953 9,821 11,394 17.0 17.3 373.5 438.7 23.8 20.3 4.3 3.6 18.0 17.9 2.5 2.1

CEAT Buy 120 170 412 5,325 5,974 8.4 8.3 40.8 48.5 3.0 2.5 0.5 0.4 17.3 17.6 0.2 0.2

Exide Industries Buy 126 148 10,702 6,899 7,873 14.7 14.7 7.9 9.0 15.9 13.9 2.7 2.4 18.3 18.0 1.2 1.0

FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,365 - 2,269 1,336 1,572 13.8 16.0 75.6 102.4 18.1 13.3 2.3 2.0 13.4 15.8 1.5 1.2

Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,848 2,048 36,894 25,562 28,297 14.5 14.4 111.2 146.3 16.6 12.6 6.1 4.7 40.1 42.1 1.2 1.1

JK Tyre Buy 98 154 403 7,972 8,754 7.1 7.1 37.5 44.0 2.6 2.2 0.4 0.3 16.4 16.6 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 897 1,103 55,242 45,254 51,197 11.4 11.7 61.2 70.2 14.7 12.8 3.1 2.6 22.7 21.9 1.0 0.8

Maruti Buy 1,342 1,648 40,553 45,862 52,647 11.2 11.1 94.6 109.9 14.2 12.2 1.9 1.7 14.4 14.6 0.7 0.6

Motherson Sumi Accumulate 199 222 11,719 28,442 31,493 7.5 7.8 12.5 14.8 15.9 13.5 3.9 3.1 27.5 25.8 0.6 0.5

Subros Buy 20 23 117 1,230 1,398 10.5 10.5 2.3 3.8 8.4 5.1 0.4 0.4 4.8 7.6 0.3 0.3

Tata Motors Buy 284 347 76,620 215,016 237,404 13.3 13.6 36.2 41.5 7.9 6.9 1.8 1.4 24.6 23.2 0.4 0.4

TVS Motor Buy 29 35 1,397 7,715 8,584 6.0 6.1 5.0 5.8 5.9 5.1 1.0 0.9 18.1 18.5 0.1 0.1

Capital Goods

ABB* Reduce 502 461 10,646 8,073 9,052 5.5 6.9 11.5 16.9 43.6 29.7 4.0 3.8 9.3 13.1 1.3 1.1BGR Energy Buy 77 140 557 3,756 4,569 11.4 9.7 21.7 24.1 3.6 3.2 0.4 0.4 22.3 20.3 0.5 0.4

BHEL Neutral 153 - 37,363 44,054 39,326 16.8 15.1 20.6 16.1 7.4 9.5 1.6 1.5 23.5 16.1 0.7 0.8

Blue Star Buy 154 208 1,387 2,941 3,099 3.4 4.2 6.0 9.3 25.8 16.6 3.2 2.8 12.9 18.0 0.6 0.5

Crompton Greaves Buy 85 117 5,462 13,446 15,272 6.7 7.6 6.6 8.9 12.9 9.6 1.4 1.3 11.4 14.0 0.5 0.5

Jyoti Structures Neutral 17 - 138 3,360 3,597 9.7 9.8 7.3 10.2 2.3 1.7 0.5 0.4 8.8 11.4 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 29 49 738 7,709 8,399 6.7 7.2 6.1 8.5 4.7 3.4 0.6 0.5 20.2 23.0 0.3 0.3

Thermax Neutral 588 - 7,011 5,832 6,397 9.1 9.6 28.8 32.9 20.4 17.9 3.3 2.9 17.2 17.3 1.2 1.0

Cement

ACC Buy 1,177 1,361 22,102 11,820 13,254 19.3 20.9 74.9 93.1 15.7 12.7 2.7 2.4 18.1 20.3 1.6 1.3


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

July 31, 2013

8/22/2019 Market Outlook, 31-07-2013

15/21



Cement

Ambuja Cements Neutral 168 - 25,904 10,171 11,762 23.5 24.6 10.2 12.2 16.4 13.8 2.7 2.5 17.1 18.7 2.0 1.6

India Cements Neutral 50 - 1,531 4,929 5,434 17.4 17.1 8.9 10.9 5.6 4.6 0.4 0.4 7.7 9.1 0.7 0.6

J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 66 100 774 2,256 2,709 20.2 22.2 17.0 20.4 3.9 3.2 0.5 0.5 14.8 15.4 0.4 0.9

Madras Cements Neutral 169 - 4,017 4,234 4,788 23.9 24.0 18.5 22.8 9.1 7.4 1.5 1.3 17.2 18.2 1.3 1.0

Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,313 - 15,027 6,607 7,520 27.5 26.7 322.8 374.3 13.4 11.5 3.3 2.7 27.8 25.6 1.6 1.2

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,866 - 51,175 21,947 25,049 23.8 23.8 106.1 119.8 17.6 15.6 2.9 2.5 17.7 17.3 2.4 2.1

ConstructionAshoka Buildcon Buy 53 84 837 1,928 2,234 21.0 21.5 6.0 7.4 8.9 7.2 0.8 0.8 10.5 10.8 1.8 1.8

Consolidated Co Neutral 8 - 148 1,715 1,824 2.4 6.2 (2.9) (0.4) (2.7) (22.2) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5

IRB Infra Buy 74 157 2,469 3,997 4,312 45.5 46.4 15.7 16.6 4.7 4.5 0.7 0.6 15.2 14.5 3.1 3.3

ITNL Buy 125 230 2,428 7,444 8,041 27.4 28.9 29.8 32.1 4.2 3.9 0.6 0.5 14.9 14.2 2.4 2.5

IVRCL Infra Buy 12 29 370 5,673 5,892 8.1 8.4 1.4 1.8 8.4 6.6 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.6 0.5 0.5

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 38 53 8,377 12,946 14,897 24.7 25.6 1.2 2.7 30.8 14.1 0.6 0.6 2.0 4.3 2.5 2.3

Larsen & Toubro Buy 850 1,128 78,573 68,946 78,040 10.0 10.0 49.0 55.2 17.4 15.4 2.5 2.2 14.9 15.3 1.3 1.1

Nagarjuna Const. Buy 23 42 588 6,167 6,945 8.0 8.2 2.7 3.6 8.6 6.3 0.2 0.2 2.7 3.6 0.5 0.4

Punj Lloyd Neutral 25 - 825 12,954 14,740 9.9 9.9 0.5 0.9 49.0 26.7 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 77 139 1,169 2,462 2,731 10.6 10.6 5.9 6.7 13.2 11.6 1.3 1.2 10.2 10.5 0.8 0.7

Simplex Infra Buy 64 131 317 6,308 7,033 9.5 9.6 11.9 18.7 5.4 3.4 0.2 0.2 4.5 6.7 0.5 0.5

Unity Infra Buy 19 41 143 2,146 2,339 13.7 13.8 11.0 11.5 1.8 1.7 0.2 0.2 9.3 9.0 0.6 0.6

Financials

Allahabad Bank Neutral 70 - 3,505 6,705 7,535 2.5 2.5 27.6 33.2 2.5 2.1 0.4 0.3 12.5 13.6 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 69 - 3,858 5,180 5,815 2.7 2.7 19.0 22.9 3.6 3.0 0.5 0.4 12.0 13.2 - -

Axis Bank Buy 1,093 1,348 51,257 19,280 22,886 3.3 3.3 130.7 157.1 8.4 7.0 1.4 1.2 17.3 18.1 - -Bank of Baroda Neutral 554 - 23,327 16,287 18,707 2.2 2.3 120.6 144.6 4.6 3.8 0.7 0.6 15.0 16.0 - -

Bank of India Neutral 174 - 10,378 14,482 16,069 2.3 2.2 55.0 62.2 3.2 2.8 0.5 0.4 13.7 13.9 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 45 - 2,957 4 ,291 4 ,724 3.0 3.0 12.1 12.9 3.7 3.5 0.6 0.5 16.2 15.3 - -

Canara Bank Neutral 261 - 11,560 12,045 13,495 2.1 2.2 76.7 86.4 3.4 3.0 0.5 0.4 14.1 14.2 - -

Central Bank Neutral 55 - 5,787 8,196 9,202 2.4 2.4 6.1 15.9 9.1 3.5 0.7 0.6 5.2 12.8 - -

Corporation Bank Neutral 296 - 4,522 5,554 6,156 2.0 2.0 94.9 104.9 3.1 2.8 0.4 0.4 14.3 14.2 - -

Dena Bank Neutral 56 - 1,945 3,255 3,623 2.3 2.4 22.0 24.9 2.5 2.2 0.4 0.3 14.7 14.7 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 336 - 5,753 2,798 3,250 3.0 3.0 38.1 51.9 8.8 6.5 0.8 0.8 9.8 12.3 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

July 31, 2013

8/22/2019 Market Outlook, 31-07-2013

16/21



Financials

HDFC Accumulate 808 867 125,495 8,679 10,350 3.6 3.6 37.5 44.7 21.5 18.1 4.5 4.0 30.1 30.7 - -

HDFC Bank Buy 626 745 149,439 27,392 33,264 4.6 4.6 36.3 45.1 17.2 13.9 3.5 2.9 21.9 22.8 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 927 1,131 106,941 26,119 30,474 3.1 3.2 86.2 99.5 10.8 9.3 1.5 1.3 15.7 16.2 - -

IDBI Bank Neutral 65 - 8,630 9,518 10,468 2.0 2.0 15.5 22.1 4.2 2.9 0.4 0.4 10.2 13.3 - -

Indian Bank Neutral 86 - 3,715 6,077 6,845 2.9 3.0 35.2 41.0 2.5 2.1 0.4 0.3 14.1 14.8 - -

IOB Neutral 43 - 3,969 7,709 8,645 2.2 2.3 8.2 17.1 5.2 2.5 0.4 0.3 6.0 11.7 - -

J & K Bank Neutral 1,101 - 5,338 3,101 3,427 3.6 3.6 215.5 210.3 5.1 5.2 0.9 0.8 19.9 16.9 - -LIC Housing Finance Neutral 173 - 8,705 2,180 2,732 2.4 2.5 26.3 32.1 6.6 5.4 1.2 1.0 19.0 19.9 - -

Oriental Bank Neutral 145 - 4,229 6,790 7,676 2.6 2.7 55.7 62.3 2.6 2.3 0.3 0.3 12.8 12.9 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Neutral 566 - 20,000 20,766 23,515 3.4 3.4 135.0 164.8 4.2 3.4 0.7 0.5 14.4 15.7 - -

South Ind.Bank Neutral 22 - 2,888 1,800 2,023 2.7 2.7 3.7 4.2 5.8 5.1 0.9 0.8 16.2 16.2 - -

St Bk of India Accumulate 1,724 1,979 117,904 66,417 76,734 3.0 3.0 227.4 284.8 7.6 6.1 1.1 1.0 15.4 17.1 - -

Syndicate Bank Neutral 87 - 5,207 7,125 8,188 2.6 2.6 27.4 27.9 3.2 3.1 0.5 0.4 16.2 14.6 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 58 - 4,395 6,736 6,979 2.7 2.6 15.3 15.7 3.8 3.7 0.7 0.6 14.8 13.6 - -

Union Bank Neutral 124 - 7,409 11,101 12,543 2.6 2.6 39.3 47.4 3.2 2.6 0.4 0.4 14.1 15.2 - -

United Bank Neutral 39 - 1,445 3,386 3,884 2.3 2.5 12.4 20.0 3.1 1.9 0.3 0.3 10.0 14.7 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 40 - 1,975 2,714 3,046 1.9 2.0 9.2 10.8 4.3 3.7 0.5 0.4 10.7 11.5 - -

Yes Bank Neutral 349 - 12,551 4,417 5,486 2.7 2.8 42.9 49.5 8.1 7.0 1.8 1.5 23.9 22.8 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 510 - 48,943 12,332 14,524 16.3 16.1 138.9 160.4 3.7 3.2 1.2 0.9 35.2 32.5 3.9 3.2

Britannia Neutral 697 - 8,349 6,417 7,502 6.1 6.3 21.3 25.5 32.8 27.4 10.6 8.5 35.7 34.6 1.3 1.1

Colgate Neutral 1,349 - 18,349 3,588 4,130 20.5 20.9 44.2 51.8 30.5 26.1 29.8 21.7 108.6 96.2 5.0 4.2

Dabur India Neutral 165 - 28,779 7,183 8,340 16.8 16.8 5.4 6.3 30.7 26.2 12.0 9.3 41.5 40.1 4.0 3.4

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 4,727 - 19,881 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 122.2 148.7 38.7 31.8 12.0 9.7 34.1 33.7 5.0 4.2

Godrej Consumer Neutral 823 - 27,994 7,801 9,017 16.2 15.9 25.1 29.7 32.7 27.7 7.1 5.9 24.9 24.2 3.7 3.2

HUL Neutral 626 - 135,317 29,167 33,164 13.6 13.7 17.1 18.4 36.6 34.0 35.2 25.5 113.4 87.0 4.5 3.9

ITC Neutral 351 - 277,173 34,294 39,991 36.8 37.0 11.3 13.3 31.1 26.3 10.2 8.3 36.1 34.9 7.8 6.6

Marico Neutral 215 - 13,841 5,273 6,044 14.8 14.9 7.3 8.7 29.6 24.8 5.8 4.8 21.4 21.0 2.7 2.3

Nestle* Neutral 5,328 - 51,373 9,447 10,968 22.1 22.3 127.5 154.1 41.8 34.6 20.9 15.1 57.7 50.7 5.5 4.6

Tata Global Neutral 159 - 9,823 8,069 8,957 9.8 9.7 7.8 8.6 20.3 18.5 2.4 2.3 9.5 9.7 1.2 1.1


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IT

HCL Tech^ Neutral 906 - 63,126 29,424 32,837 22.6 22.0 59.5 63.3 15.2 14.3 3.7 3.1 24.6 21.7 2.0 1.7

Hexaware* Accumulate 113 123 3,375 2,213 2,479 21.5 20.5 12.1 12.9 9.3 8.8 2.3 2.0 25.4 23.5 1.4 1.2

Infosys Neutral 2,956 - 169,727 47,001 51,196 26.2 26.4 171.3 189.4 17.3 15.6 3.5 3.0 20.4 19.3 3.0 2.6

Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 180 190 2,011 2,052 2,263 17.2 17.6 20.7 22.5 8.7 8.0 1.3 1.1 14.9 14.0 0.6 0.5

KPIT Cummins Accumulate 131 144 2,533 2,614 2,923 17.2 16.8 13.2 14.4 10.0 9.1 1.8 1.5 18.5 16.7 0.9 0.7

Mindtree Accumulate 961 1,050 3,992 2,768 3,006 19.7 19.9 103.1 105.3 9.3 9.1 2.3 1.8 24.8 20.3 1.1 0.9

Mphasis& Neutral 400 - 8,398 6,372 6,852 18.0 18.2 38.0 43.5 10.5 9.2 1.5 1.3 14.3 14.2 0.8 0.7NIIT Neutral 16 - 258 1,144 1,267 9.0 9.1 4.3 5.4 3.6 2.9 0.4 0.4 10.3 12.0 - -

Persistent Accumulate 523 595 2,091 1,505 1,677 25.9 26.2 53.6 59.7 9.8 8.8 1.7 1.5 17.7 16.7 1.0 0.8

TCS Buy 1,791 2,060 350,509 79,005 91,576 29.7 30.0 88.6 103.1 20.2 17.4 6.4 5.1 31.5 29.2 4.2 3.6

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,231 1,390 28,581 8,102 8,709 19.7 19.2 107.5 117.0 11.5 10.5 2.4 2.0 21.2 18.9 3.5 3.2

Wipro Neutral 420 - 103,446 41,659 45,137 21.2 21.4 27.7 29.9 15.2 14.0 3.1 2.7 20.5 19.0 2.0 1.7

Media

D B Corp Buy 260 302 4,760 1,783 1,968 25.2 26.8 14.6 17.2 17.8 15.1 4.6 4.0 23.9 24.2 2.6 2.3

HT Media Buy 98 117 2,291 2,205 2,380 15.1 15.6 8.3 9.3 11.7 10.5 1.4 1.3 11.6 11.6 0.7 0.5

Jagran Prakashan Buy 90 107 2,997 1,664 1,825 20.9 23.0 6.4 7.8 14.1 11.6 2.8 2.6 21.0 23.1 1.9 1.7

PVR Neutral 341 - 1,352 1,359 1,540 17.3 17.4 17.2 21.6 19.8 15.8 2.0 1.8 10.3 12.0 1.4 1.3

Sun TV Network Neutral 373 - 14,688 2,287 2,551 69.7 70.5 20.0 23.3 18.6 16.0 4.6 4.0 26.4 27.3 6.1 5.3

Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 460 - 10,425 13,794 17,088 30.9 33.5 49.3 66.6 9.3 6.9 1.0 0.9 11.3 13.5 2.4 1.9

Coal India Buy 275 345 173,732 72,174 76,311 33.3 28.4 28.4 30.9 9.7 8.9 2.7 2.3 37.6 36.2 1.6 1.4

Electrosteel Castings Buy 10 18 338 1,976 2,017 11.8 12.7 1.3 2.6 8.2 4.0 0.1 - 2.6 5.2 0.5 0.1

GMDC Buy 92 155 2,929 1,920 2,239 53.2 52.9 21.6 25.0 4.3 3.7 1.0 0.8 25.1 23.8 1.0 0.7Hind. Zinc Buy 99 140 41,936 12,389 13,093 48.5 51.7 15.2 17.0 6.5 5.8 1.1 1.0 18.5 18.0 1.2 0.8

Hindalco Neutral 86 - 16,542 89,352 93,672 8.8 9.2 13.4 15.0 6.5 5.8 0.5 0.4 7.3 7.6 0.5 0.5

JSW Steel Neutral 534 - 12,899 47,613 48,385 17.4 18.8 81.8 109.6 6.5 4.9 0.7 0.6 11.1 13.4 0.6 0.5

MOIL Buy 191 248 3,211 1,010 1,046 46.5 47.6 26.8 28.8 7.1 6.6 1.0 0.9 15.4 14.7 0.8 0.5

Monnet Ispat Buy 111 193 708 2,326 2,709 21.4 23.1 33.3 43.1 3.3 2.6 0.3 0.2 8.3 9.9 1.3 1.0

Nalco Neutral 28 - 7,255 7,656 7,988 13.1 13.5 2.6 2.6 11.0 10.7 0.6 0.6 5.5 5.5 0.4 0.4

NMDC Buy 99 140 39,132 10,610 11,400 66.3 64.2 15.6 16.1 6.4 6.2 1.3 1.2 21.3 19.9 1.6 1.4

SAIL Neutral 42 - 17,243 44,060 54,786 9.4 11.5 5.2 7.2 8.0 5.8 0.4 0.4 5.2 6.8 0.6 0.6


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Metals & Mining

Sesa Goa Buy 124 166 10,773 3,742 4,426 32.9 32.8 30.0 29.8 4.1 4.2 0.6 0.5 14.3 12.5 3.7 3.0

Sterlite Inds Buy 73 97 24,566 44,493 45,599 22.4 23.9 16.8 19.2 4.3 3.8 0.4 0.4 10.5 10.9 0.5 0.4

Tata Steel Buy 210 378 20,357 140,917 151,537 9.7 10.8 30.9 47.6 6.8 4.4 0.6 0.6 9.6 13.4 0.5 0.5

Sarda Buy 83 153 299 1,494 1,568 19.1 20.3 31.3 36.5 2.7 2.3 0.3 0.3 11.8 12.4 0.5 0.5

Prakash Industries Buy 30 40 404 2,615 2,776 12.1 12.0 9.8 10.4 3.1 2.9 0.2 0.2 6.5 6.5 0.4 0.4

Godawari Power andIspat

Buy 66 102 217 2,344 2,509 14.9 15.4 38.7 47.0 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.2 12.3 12.9 0.5 0.4

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Buy 292 364 55,781 18,403 17,925 71.9 62.1 62.1 57.4 4.7 5.1 1.0 0.8 22.6 17.8 1.8 1.6

GAIL Neutral 307 - 38,917 49,700 48,822 16.0 16.6 32.9 33.4 9.3 9.2 1.4 1.3 15.9 14.4 0.3 0.2

ONGC Buy 281 387 240,281 170,063 198,461 36.3 38.3 34.7 41.9 8.1 6.7 1.4 1.2 18.3 19.5 1.1 0.8

Reliance Industries Neutral 859 - 277,370 397,546 421,695 8.9 8.7 72.3 76.8 11.9 11.2 1.2 1.1 12.3 11.8 0.7 0.6

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 184 - 2,360 3,707 3,850 11.7 12.4 23.7 25.7 7.8 7.2 2.2 1.9 29.6 28.2 0.5 0.5

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 265 - 3,714 3,700 4,218 23.4 22.8 26.7 30.4 10.0 8.7 2.1 1.7 22.7 21.8 1.1 0.9

Petronet LNG Buy 115 167 8,618 40,356 40,872 5.8 6.4 15.0 16.7 7.7 6.9 1.6 1.4 23.0 21.5 0.3 0.3

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Neutral 49 - 2,766 1,171 1,287 91.9 91.9 10.1 11.3 4.9 4.3 0.8 0.7 17.3 16.8 - -

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Neutral 158 - 2,982 1,736 2,008 17.1 18.9 10.7 13.9 14.8 11.4 4.6 3.5 35.0 34.7 1.8 1.5

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 165 271 4,809 6,641 7,637 15.9 15.9 17.3 20.6 9.6 8.0 1.5 1.3 19.5 18.9 1.2 1.0

Aventis* Neutral 2,375 - 5,470 1,682 1,917 16.6 16.6 92.4 99.1 25.7 24.0 3.6 3.6 15.7 14.8 2.9 2.3

Cadila Healthcare Buy 732 929 14,995 7,280 8,640 15.5 15.7 38.3 46.5 19.1 15.8 4.1 3.4 23.5 23.5 2.4 2.0

Cipla Buy 408 477 32,763 9,274 10,796 23.1 23.1 21.0 23.8 19.4 17.1 3.1 2.7 17.2 16.8 3.3 2.7

Dr Reddy's Buy 2,179 2,535 37,049 13,377 15,350 20.4 20.1 112.3 126.8 19.4 17.2 4.1 3.4 23.5 21.8 2.9 2.5

Dishman Pharma Buy 45 168 366 1,394 1,534 22.5 22.4 15.0 16.8 3.0 2.7 0.3 0.3 11.0 11.2 0.9 0.7

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,384 - 20,194 2,854 3,145 28.6 28.6 76.6 83.3 31.1 28.6 9.3 8.5 31.1 31.0 6.2 5.6

Indoco Remedies Buy 59 78 546 760 922 15.3 15.3 6.1 7.8 9.7 7.6 1.2 1.1 12.9 14.7 0.9 0.8

Ipca labs Neutral 654 - 8,246 3,243 3,826 20.5 21.5 36.0 44.4 18.2 14.7 4.2 3.4 26.0 25.4 2.7 2.3

Lupin Neutral 840 - 37,614 11,641 13,933 21.3 21.3 34.8 41.8 24.1 20.1 5.7 4.5 26.2 24.8 3.3 2.7

Ranbaxy* Buy 280 384 11,841 11,400 12,060 10.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 16.0 12.4 2.6 2.2 17.0 19.1 1.0 0.9

Sun Pharma Neutral 575 - 118,856 13,509 15,846 41.0 41.0 33.0 39.8 17.4 14.4 3.5 2.9 22.0 22.0 8.2 6.8

Power

GIPCL Buy 61 78 918 1,444 1,482 33.4 33.0 13.7 14.8 4.4 4.1 0.5 0.5 12.3 12.0 0.7 0.5

NTPC Buy 138 163 113,746 76,734 86,680 24.5 24.3 13.4 14.5 10.3 9.5 1.3 1.2 12.8 12.7 2.2 2.1


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Real Estate

DLF Buy 159 236 28,263 8,293 9,622 36.5 36.1 5.7 6.7 27.8 23.6 1.0 1.0 3.7 4.1 5.5 4.6

MLIFE Accumulate 453 483 1,848 888 1,002 27.0 29.9 33.9 42.1 13.4 10.8 1.3 1.2 9.9 11.2 2.7 2.4

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 321 - 128,496 85,489 94,229 31.9 31.9 10.2 14.6 31.4 22.0 2.3 2.1 7.2 9.4 2.2 1.9

Idea Cellular Neutral 157 - 51,955 25,640 28,459 26.9 27.2 4.0 4.9 39.1 31.7 3.3 3.0 8.4 9.4 2.4 2.1

Rcom Neutral 127 - 26,162 22,751 24,628 30.9 31.3 3.4 5.3 37.0 24.1 0.8 0.8 2.1 3.1 2.7 2.4

OthersAbbott India* Buy 1,405 1,659 2,985 1,863 2,081 11.8 12.4 71.2 83.0 19.7 16.9 4.0 3.4 21.6 21.5 1.4 1.1

Bajaj Electricals Buy 171 237 1,706 3,885 4,472 5.4 7.2 11.0 19.7 15.6 8.7 2.1 1.8 13.5 20.3 0.4 0.4

Cera Sanitaryware Buy 500 613 632 631 797 14.5 13.7 42.6 51.1 11.7 9.8 2.8 2.2 26.5 25.3 1.0 0.8

Cravatex Buy 283 459 73 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 10.4 7.4 1.6 1.4 15.7 18.5 0.5 0.4

Finolex Cables Buy 54 68 831 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 5.4 4.8 0.8 0.7 14.3 13.8 0.2 0.2

Force Motors Buy 257 349 335 2,304 2,649 3.1 3.6 28.0 43.7 9.2 5.9 0.3 0.3 3.1 4.7 0.1 0.1

Goodyear India* Accumulate 314 345 724 1,458 1,542 8.3 9.0 32.3 37.0 9.7 8.5 1.8 1.5 19.5 19.3 0.3 0.3

Hitachi Buy 112 191 304 1,080 1,199 8.9 9.1 18.3 19.1 6.1 5.9 1.1 0.9 19.2 17.0 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,382 - 2,106 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 111.1 130.9 21.4 18.2 2.7 2.4 13.3 13.9 1.0 0.9

IFB Agro Buy 139 198 125 495 651 12.7 12.9 29.3 39.5 4.8 3.5 0.7 0.6 15.4 17.6 0.4 0.3

ITD Cementation Buy 157 234 180 1,430 1,573 11.1 11.0 19.1 26.9 8.2 5.8 0.4 0.4 5.4 7.1 0.5 0.5

Jyothy Laboratories Buy 169 199 2,800 1,220 1,476 13.3 13.6 5.5 9.0 30.6 18.7 3.5 3.1 12.1 17.7 2.6 2.1

MRF Buy 13,170 16,218 5,585 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.0 1,802.0 7.4 7.3 1.6 1.3 23.5 19.2 0.6 0.6

Page Industries Neutral 4,503 - 5,022 1,057 1,282 19.4 19.6 124.8 153.7 36.1 29.3 17.9 13.2 56.3 51.8 4.8 4.0

Relaxo Footwears Buy 781 982 937 1,196 1,401 12.3 13.4 58.3 81.9 13.4 9.5 3.3 2.5 28.2 29.8 0.9 0.8

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 218 311 204 1,158 1,322 10.8 11.2 62.1 77.8 3.5 2.8 0.6 0.5 17.2 18.4 0.4 0.4Styrolution ABS India* Buy 388 492 682 1,007 1,108 8.4 8.7 30.3 35.1 12.8 11.0 1.4 1.3 11.7 12.2 0.7 0.6

TAJ GVK Buy 59 108 369 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.5 1.3

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 245 371 377 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 3.8 3.5 0.5 0.5 14.5 13.8 0.1 (0.1)

TTK Healthcare Buy 520 632 404 416 481 4.5 6.1 16.2 25.3 32.1 20.5 4.0 3.5 12.6 18.1 0.8 0.7

Tree House Accumulate 269 297 969 153 194 53.0 52.8 12.4 15.6 21.8 17.2 2.6 2.3 11.8 13.1 6.5 5.0

TVS Srichakra Buy 167 230 128 1,591 1,720 6.1 6.4 24.5 38.3 6.8 4.4 0.7 0.7 10.9 15.9 0.3 0.2

United Spirits Neutral 2,535 - 36,839 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 60.2 37.4 4.3 3.8 9.1 10.7 3.3 2.9

Vesuvius India* Buy 372 439 756 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 10.4 10.2 1.9 1.6 19.4 17.1 1.1 0.9


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Others

HSIL Buy 79 117 524 2,042 2,363 14.6 14.8 12.3 16.5 6.5 4.8 0.5 0.5 7.6 9.4 0.7 0.6

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on July 30, 2013


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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Market Outlook, 31-07-2013