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Birmingham, 28th February, 2018
Market demand drivers for e-mobility
2 2018-01-26_RB_xEV_Global_Forecast_v1_tl.pptx
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
200
100
300
0
400
Total cost of ownership will start to feature as a driver from 2022 on a case by case basis
xEVs are not expected to reach broad TCO parity with ICE vehicles before 2025
xEVs do outperform on TCO for some driving profiles, but limited infrastructure makes these impractical
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Roland Berger
Total cost of ownership ("TCO") of different powertrain technologies
Competitiveness of driving profiles at an oil price of 70 USD/bbl [Germany] LiB pack price, United States [USD/KWh]1)
xEVs are forecast to reach TCO
parity in the US over 2022-
2026, depending on
vehicle segment2)
1) Projected price, based on average of 14-19% experience curve; 2) EV cost parity is calculated on an unsubsidised basis
10k 15k 20k 25k 30k 35k 40k 10k 15k 20k 25k 30k 35k 40k 10k 15k 20k 25k 30k 35k 40k Mileage p.a.
C-Segment
E-share
80-100%
60-80%
40-60%
20-40%
0-20%
Diesel vs. Diesel PHEV Diesel vs. Gasoline PHEV
Gasoline vs. Gasoline PHEV
80-100%
60-80%
40-60%
20-40%
0-20%
80-100%
60-80%
40-60%
20-40%
0-20% D-Segment
E-Segment
Cost-efficient (TCO)
E-Driving share is difficult to be realized with a common vehicle usage profile for the respective annual mileage because of lacking broad public charging infrastructure coverage in most EU regions
Main usage Main usage Main usage
3 2018-01-26_RB_xEV_Global_Forecast_v1_tl.pptx
Until 2025 demand for xEVs will be driven by legislation in China and the EU, and customer preferences in the US
Drivers for xEVs1) until 2025
Source: Roland Berger
1) Both dimensions existing in all three regions, however, with different emphasis 2) CARB Section 177 States
Regionally dominating factor
Customer driven Legislation driven
Expected market development for EVs and PHEVs
> Required PHEV and BEV sales
> Incentives/Privileges
> Limitations for ICE
2)
> Fulfilling customer needs
4 2018-01-26_RB_xEV_Global_Forecast_v1_tl.pptx
xEV sales targets, CO2/fuel consumption targets and incentive programs are the most important drivers
Drivers for global powertrain electrification1) until 2025
Source: Roland Berger
1) Both dimensions existing in all three regions, however, with different emphasis 2) Push is dominating factor in CARB Section 177 States
Dominating driver Less dominating driver
Required PHEV and BEV sales
1 Incentives/ Privileges
2 City access and registrations bans for ICE
3
Fulfilling customer needs
4
Legislation driven
Customer driven
2)
Limited customer pull and only comfort leveled TCO benefit
Limited customer pull and only comfort leveled TCO benefit
Many countries with incentive programs, some countries with tax advantages
National subsidy based on vehicle weight and battery range
No ICE registration ban and limited access restrictions
Long term ICE registration bans in some countries and city access restrictions in several cities
No ICE registration ban and limited access restrictions
Short- to medium term: Highest customer pull due to "innovators"-image and TCO benefit
High incentives and some cities with eased registrations (e.g. license plates)
Corporate CO2 fleet emission targets
ZEV sales targets (CARB) and Fuel efficiency targets (CAFE)
CAFC NEV sales targets
Not relevant
5 2018-01-26_RB_xEV_Global_Forecast_v1_tl.pptx
Emission regulations increase pressure on automotive OEMs to improve CO2 emissions, fuel efficiency and exhaust gas emissions
GHG emissions/fuel consumption in NEDC g/km equivalent
Passenger car GHG emissions/fuel consumption and emission regulations
≙ 44.8 mpg
1) Weight-class based per vehicle and corporate average 2) Weight-based corporate average 3) Footprint-based corporate average; converted to NEDC
Source: Press research; ICCT; Roland Berger
127
95
-45%
2025
~81
tbd
2021 2013
93
117
171-46%
2025 2020 2013
97
125
159
2020 2013
-39%
2025
≙ 36.0 mpg
> CAFC1) (phase IV)
> NEV sales share > CAFE3) > Additional ZEV regulation CARB
(177 states)
> CO2 emissions target2)
≙ 5 L/100km
≙ 7.3 L/100km
1 Required PHEV and BEV sales
6 2018-01-26_RB_xEV_Global_Forecast_v1_tl.pptx
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
2,550
2,400
1,350
1,200
1,050
900
750
600
450
300
150
0
Ad
d.c
ost
2)[E
UR
]
CO2 emission reduction [g/km]
These emissions regulations can no longer be met by alternative IC-related technologies
Cost1) [EUR] and CO2 emission benefits [g/km] – B-segment petrol vehicle
1) System/component cost; 2) No CAPEX and integration cost in additional cost considered; 3) Industry average weight, aero efficiency, standard tires; 4) Body and some components but not considering additional weight saving potential in chassis, interior, electric and powertrain
40 EUR/g
30 EUR/g
20 EUR/g
15 EUR/g
10 EUR/g
5 EUR/g
Base vehicle: B-segment3)
Base engine: 80 kW
Base CO2 emissions: 115 g/km
ICE optimisation Most ICE optimisation levers have already been introduced and will be largely exhausted by 2020
Mild/Full hybrids Hybridisation offers additional CO2 emission reduction potentials once ICE measures have been exhausted
Light-weighting4) As emissions regulations become more stringent light-weighting could gain importance as other levers are exhausted
Source: EEA, IHS, Expert interviews, Roland Berger
1 Required PHEV and BEV sales
12 2018-01-26_RB_xEV_Global_Forecast_v1_tl.pptx
Indirect customer pull is targeted by incentives like advantages in plate registrations, particularly in China
2 Incentives/ Privileges
Regional incentives and privileges
Ince
nti
ves
Pri
vile
ges
Source: Roland Berger
National and city subsidies [max EUR k, 2016] in 39 demo areas, 88 cities
Country-specific incentives [max EUR k, 2016]
National subsidy based on vehicle weight and battery range
> License plate registration benefits in 6 cities with savings up to EUR 8 k (Shanghai) for NEVs
> Reduced/exempt parking fees, main-tenance etc. related to the use of NEV
> Minor privileges such as free parking and usage of bus lanes in selected cities (e.g. Hamburg)
> Exemption from registration or annual vehicle taxes especially in NL, DK
> Exemption from purchase tax (~6%) for NEVs
> Subsidies on charging and installation of charging facilities
> Subsidies will likely be counted
> Usage of commuter lanes
0
45664
7810
4
Shenzen Beijing Shanghai Jinhua
8
35
8
e-Golf S500e Panamera PHEV
Model S
15 2018-01-26_RB_xEV_Global_Forecast_v1_tl.pptx
Several cities already restrict or plan to restrict access for certain vehicles thus driving electrification
Overview of selected city access restrictions 1/2 (selection)
Expected impact on cars
> From 23rd Oct. 2017 minimum exhaust emission standards need to be met or daily £10 emissions charge
> Minimum emission standards are Euro 4/IV for petrol & diesel vehicles
> From 1st July 2017 all vehicles Mon-Fri 08:00 – 20:00 at least Crit 'Air' sticker 4 & heavy duty vehicles every day from 08:00 – 20:00
> Euro standards will be increased constantly, experiments with LTZ & ultra-low emission routes
> Six different levels of access restriction policy
> Goal is to achieve "a zero emission zone" in the historical center
> No restrictions for two-wheel vehicles
> LTZ Mon – Fri 06:30 – 19:00 & Sat. 14.00 – 19:00
> Night LTZ as well
Future restrictions
London Paris Rome
1,480,000 veh./ 120,000 sales
980,000 veh. / 60,000 sales
1,480,000 veh. / 60,000 sales
Total ~2.1% of EU-fleet and ~2.4% of sales
> Goal: Emission free city by 2025
> Stepwise increase of the restrictions 2017, 2018 & 2020 - lorry LEZ will be tightened
> Light Duty Vehicles will be affected soon
> Currently the LEZ applies to lorries over 3.5 tones
> In the budget for 2018/2019 construction measures for reduction of cars are already planned
> Transport development draft 2030
> smog alarm winter 2017/2018: ban of all diesel vehicles lower than Euro 6
> 2019 plan: car ban in the city center
> Ban of diesel vehicles January 2017 Tuesdays from 06:00 – 22:00 as long as air pollution remains severe
> The odd even number plat scheme can be used as well
> LEZ is expected in winter 2017 /2018
Amsterdam Stuttgart Oslo
330,000 veh. / 20,000 sales
270,000 veh. / 20,000 sales
No information available
Source: Local authorities; Roland Berger
3 City access and registrations bans for ICE
16 2018-01-26_RB_xEV_Global_Forecast_v1_tl.pptx
Several cities already restrict or plan to restrict access for certain vehicles thus driving electrification
Overview of selected city access restrictions 2/2 (selection)
Expected impact on cars
> Wish to remove diesel vehicles from the city
> Number of access restrictions for cars will be increased
> By summer 2019 the Grand Via is sup-posed to be car free
> Residents with permit & elect. vehicles are allowed
> Charge park system
> Goal to remove diesel vehicles by 2025
> Foreign vehicles are not affected in Athen
> Rental & hire cars are not affected for the first 40 days
> Difference between city center scheme & whole Athens area
> City designed to ban vehicles of any kind post 2020
> Layout makes it easier to walk than drive (people can walk anywhere in 15 min.)
> Only half of the roads in the 80 k-person city will allow vehicles
Future restrictions
Madrid Athens Chengdu
952,000 veh. / n.a.
173,000 veh. / 24,500 sales
No information available
Total ~2.1% of EU-fleet and ~2.4% of sales
> Pedestrian-only island in Fujian Province with around 20 k inhabitants
> The only vehicles that are accepted are small electric buggies and governmental electric service vehicles
> Although no direct car ban is planned the number of pedestrian areas is increasing: E.g. Times Square, Herald Square, and Madison Square Park
> Ithaca Commons as largest car free area in NY with three-block pedestrian mall
> Plan to ban private cars on San Francisco's Market Street
> Car ban for private cars including ridesharing vehicles such as Uber and Lyft
> Delivery trucks will further have access
Gulangyu New York San Francisco
No information available
No information available
No information available
Source: Local authorities; Roland Berger
3 City access and registrations bans for ICE
17 2018-01-26_RB_xEV_Global_Forecast_v1_tl.pptx
In EU28 we estimate these city regulations might affect approx. 66 m vehicles in use and approx. 3.8 m new car registrations….
Scenario III
66.4
33.8
25.9
6.7
Scenario II
34.7
22.6
11.6
0.5
Scenario I
16.0
9.3
6.3 0.5
Affected vehicles in use Affected new car registrations
Scenario III
3.8
1.8
1.7
0.3
Scenario II
2.0
1.3
0.7
0.0
Scenario I
0.9
0.5
0.4 0.0
Source: Eurostat; OICA; ACEA; Roland Berger
High polluted Medium polluted Low polluted
Vehicles in use/new car registrations affected by environmental city regulations [m units]
3 City access and registrations bans for ICE
Scenario I:
Cities with >1,000k inhabitants, without suburbs
Scenarios
Scenario II:
Cities with >1,000k inhabitants, with suburbs ("greater cities")
Scenario III:
Cities with >500k inhabitants, with suburbs ("greater cities")
18 2018-01-26_RB_xEV_Global_Forecast_v1_tl.pptx
….meaning almost 25% of cars will be affected by city-level environmental regulations
Scenario III
286.1
76.8%
23.2%
(66.4)
Scenario II
286.1
87.9%
12.1%
(34.7)
Scenario I
286.1
94.4%
5.6%
(16.0)
Scenario III
15.8
76.0%
24.0%
(3.8)
Scenario II
15.8
87.0%
13.0%
(2.0)
Scenario I
15.8
94.2%
5.8%
(0.9)
Source: Eurostat; OICA; ACEA; Roland Berger
Not affected vehicles Affected vehicles
Vehicles in use/new car registrations affected by environmental city regulations in EU28
Affected vehicles in use of total car park [%; m unit] Affected new cars of all registrations [%; m unit]
3 City access and registrations bans for ICE
Scenario I: Cities with >1,000k inhabitants, without suburbs; Scenario II: Cities with >1,000k inhabitants, with suburbs ("greater cities"); Scenario III: Cities with >500k inhabitants, with suburbs ("greater cities")
19 2018-01-26_RB_xEV_Global_Forecast_v1_tl.pptx
xEV sales shares2) 2016-2025 [m vehicle]
Source: Roland Berger
EU281) China NAFTA
1) Passenger cars 2) RB expects the EU commission to allow OEMs to meet 90% of the target in 2025 (similar as it is for the 2020 target)
94%88%
7%5%
20252)
17.3
2020/21
17.1
4% 2%
2016
17.3 0%
88%79%
17%9%
20252)
30.5
4%
2020
27.5
3%
2016
23.7 1%
88%
76%
9%
7% 15%5%
20252)
15.0
2020/21
14.9
2016
14.9 1%
Other PHEV BEV
City-level laws may help PHEVs as a medium term bridging technology, but BEV growth is expected to dominate after 2020
20 2018-01-26_RB_xEV_Global_Forecast_v1_tl.pptx
Given this combination of drivers, RB believes that xEV sales will grow from 0.7m in 2016 to 12m in 2025
xEV sales2) 2016-2025 [m vehicle]
Source: Roland Berger
EU281) China NAFTA
1) Incl. UK 2) Passenger cars, note that these geographies account for c. 70% of global sales
2025
2.01
1.16
0.85
2021
1.01
0.61
0.40
2016
0.11 0.04 0.08
2025
6.32
1.27
5.05
2020
3.39
0.83
2.56
2016
0.34 0.08 0.26
2025
3.63
1.39
2.24
2021
1.77
1.06
0.70
2016
0.22
0.11 0.11
21 2018-01-26_RB_xEV_Global_Forecast_v1_tl.pptx
For further information:
Wolfgang Bernhart, Stuttgart
Mobile phone: +49 (160) 7447-421
E-Mail: [email protected]
Tim Longstaff, London
Mobile phone: +44 (7880) 202910
E-Mail: [email protected]